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New Zealand Dollar bounces broadly in quiet Asian session, partly underpinned by notable improvement economic data which showed that the services sector has swung back into expansion at the start of 2024. Additionally, economists are increasingly expecting that more work is needed by RBNZ to cool the economic to bring down inflation.
New Zealand's BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 48.8 to 52.1 in January, marking its highest peak since May 2023. This rebound places the sector back into expansion, albeit slightly below long-term average of 53.4.
Activity in the global financial markets are rather muted today, with major European stock indexes reading water within a narrow range. US futures are also showing little change, reflecting the quietness of US market holiday. In the currency sphere, movements are similarly subdued, with Euro and Swiss Franc ranking as the day's weaker currencies followed by Dollar. Kiwi, Aussie, and Yen are having relative strength. Sterling and Swiss Franc find themselves positioned in the middle, presenting mixed performance.
The New Zealand dollar continues to gain ground and has extended its gains for a fourth straight day. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.614
Yen weakened momentarily after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, but swiftly regained stability. This quick recovery underscores the market's assessment that the conditions for a BoJ rate hike in April remain intact. This viewpoint is bolstered by unchanged CPI core-core forecast, which holds steady at 1.9% for the upcoming two fiscal years. However, BoJ refrained from offering any immediate signals for such a policy shift. The decision on whether to raise interest rates will depend heavily on the outcomes of the Spring wages negotiations, especially in terms of the breadth of wage growth. Given these circumstances, Yen still faces potential downside risks in the near term.
New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell from 51.1 to 48.8 in December, back into contraction territory. This downturn also brings the index below long-term average of 53.4. The increase in negative sentiment is evident, with the proportion of negative comments rising from 54.0% to 58.7%. The primary concerns expressed by businesses revolve around seasonal factors, increasing costs of living, and an overall economic slowdown.
Identifying a singular driving theme proves challenging In today's forex market. Japanese Yen made an attempt to rebound following BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting press conference, where he hinted at the potential of a future rate hike. However, this rebound was short-lived, and Yen soon reverted to its familiar tight trading range, indicating that the market is uncertain on when the anticipated rate move would happen. Dollar, despite being lower on the performance chart, is showing signs of gaining momentum against European majors as the market enters into the US session.
New Zealand Dollar strengthens broadly in an otherwise quiet Asian session today, leading Aussie along with it. This notable rise can partly be attributed to two key domestic factors: a significant improvement in consumer sentiment and robust data from the country's services sector. In the broader context, Kiwi's strength is also accentuated by monetary policy landscape. Unlike major central banks such as Fed and ECB, which are grappling with the prospect of rate cuts, RBNZ is not expected to follow a similar path through 2024. This divergence in policy direction sets the stage for the Kiwi to outperform Dollar and Europeans, at least in the short term.
New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose from 49.2 to 51.2 in November, crossing the threshold from contraction to expansion. However, it's crucial to note that this figure remains below the long-term average of 53.5, suggesting that recovery is still in its nascent stages.