UBS pegs the total fiscal cost to the Centre at Rs 40,000-Rs 45,000 crore and of this, Rs 35,000 crore has already been provided for in the Budget, which means the Centre will have to allocate a maximum of Rs 10,000 crore for this
"The fiscal position has deteriorated after the pandemic and now we estimate fiscal deficit widened to 11.8 per cent of GDP in FY21, up from 7.8 per cent in FY20," UBS Securities India chief economist Tanvee Gupta Jain said in the report.
Elevated public debt, 11.8 per cent fiscal deficit for FY 2020-21 matter of concern: Report
UBS Securities India chief economist Tanvee Gupta Jainnoted that the elevated fiscal deficit has also led to historically high public debt levels, flagging concerns on the steep jump.
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MUMBAI: As the fiscal position of the country worsens due to the pandemic, there are concerns over the elevated public debt and also higher fiscal deficit at 11.8 per cent in 2020-21, brokerage UBS Securities India said.
A report by UBS has also warned of a downgrade risk in the sovereign ratings by one of the three rating agencies in the next 12-18 months. This is despite both the direct and indirect tax mop-up crossing the revised estimates for the year.
UBS economist’s advice to RBI: Time to go easy on money printing
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Synopsis
It will not be easy for RBI to walk back on its stance but policy normalisation is going to be the next buzz word.
ETMarkets.com
The Reserve Bank of India’s ultra-accommodative liquidity policy has helped maintain sanity in the domestic financial markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. But with the economy expected to rev up in the coming years, a debate is raging if it is time for the central bank to think about how it will normalise its policy stance. “While RBI has talked about maintaining an accommodative stance for a longer time, you will need to think about it eventually at some point, if not now, as to how are we going to normalise this easy liquidity policy as it can come into conflict with financial and macro stability objectives,”