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Measuring the Effects of Influence Operations: Key Findings and Gaps From Empirical Research

Measuring the Effects of Influence Operations: Key Findings and Gaps From Empirical Research
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The health externalities of downsizing | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

COVID-19 and the policies enacted to tackle virus transmission have led to a wave of unemployment in Europe and the US. This column uses data from Austria to examine the impact of downsizing by a firm on the health of people who remain at the firm. It finds a significant increase in drug prescriptions and hospitalisations following mass layoffs, driven primarily by mental and

Papers by Michael Ehrmann

Abstract Using business survey data on German manufacturing firms, this paper provides tests for hypotheses formulated in capital market imperfection theories that predict distributional effects in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Effects of monetary policy shocks on the business conditions of firms of several size classes are analysed, with the finding of considerable asymmetry. As predicted by theory, small firms are affected more strongly than large firms. To test whether these effects are reinforced when the economy is in a business cycle downturn, the paper employs a new estimation strategy: impulse response analysis conditional on Markov-switching regimes. The findings are supportive of the theoretical hypotheses: in a business cycle downturn, the distributional effects of monetary policy transmission are indeed reinforced.

The heterogeneous impact of short-time work | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Almut Balleer, Britta Gehrke, Wolfgang Lechthaler, Christian Merkl Whereas unemployment insurance is, and has long been, an essential component of the employment policies toolbox, short-time work is a relative newcomer.  However, the Covid-19 crisis transformed short-time work into the first choice of policymakers, at least on the European side of the Atlantic.  But this newfound enthusiasm should not obscure the relative lack of solid academic evaluations of the consequences of short-time work now available to policymakers (Giupponi and Landais 2018, 2020, Kopp and Siegenthaler 2021, Cahuc et al. 2018). This deficit will be all the more troublesome as countries are compelled to decide how and when to make their firms transition out of short-time work in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, a period when windfall effects could be significant. 

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