Conclusion
Consumer sentiment has not correlated well well with Retail Sales in the unusual circumstances of the pandemic.
American consumers had continued to spend in spite of widespread unemployment through October. The eight-month average for Retail Sales from March to October of 0.89% is as good as any that for a similar period is the last decade. November s Sales figures will be reported on December 16 and a 0.1% decline is currently forecast after October s 0.3% increase.
The May Michigan Index was 72.3, just off April s low but Sales jumped 18.2%. In July sentiment fell back to 72.5 from 78.1 but Sales rose 0.9%. In October sentiment hit the pandemic high of 81.8 and Sales increased just 0.3%, down from 1.6% in August.