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Calculated Risk

I m tracking sales and inventory for many local markets. Houston real estate held to record territory in June with buyers continuing to seize upon historically low interest rates as they purchased homes from among a limited supply. Despite the strong buying activity, the pace was slightly slower in the year-over-year comparison. According to the latest Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) Market Update, single-family homes sales were up 13.6 percent compared to last June, with 10,638 units sold versus 9,362 a year earlier. That becomes the market’s thirteenth consecutive positive month of sales. On a year-to-date basis, home sales remain 25.9 percent ahead of 2020’s record pace.

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
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Calculated Risk

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 2nd, inventory was at 373 thousand (7 day average), compared to 654 thousand the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 43.0%. A week ago, inventory was at 373 thousand, and was down 44.0% YoY.   Seasonally, inventory has bottomed.   Inventory was about 21.6% above the record low in early April. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.  Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases, although still well below a normal rate for June.

Calculated Risk

7/11/2021 08:11:00 AM Note: I m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the GAMLS for Atlanta: Total Residential Units Sold in June 2021 were 10,035, up 7.8% from 9,310 in June 2020. Active Residential Listings in June 2021 were 7,787, down 55.8% from 17,596 in June 2020. Inventory was up 3.4% from last month. Months of Supply was 0.88 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.31 Months in June 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Georgia MLS shows inventory in Atlanta over the last several years - and the sharp decline in inventory at the start of the pandemic.

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