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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16, 2021
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An Earth Day message for California: Move faster on climate change
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Earth Day 2021 call: California, fight climate change faster
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Climate Change Checkup
If you have the misfortune to follow the dreary climate change business, you’ll know that one of the fine points is which long-term emissions forecast to plug into your model. Never mind the accuracy of the models for now even a good model is vulnerable to the age-old GIGO problem ”garbage in, garbage out.” In climate model forecasting, if you have an absurd emissions forecast, you’ll get absurd (but headline-grabbing) results.
People who follow this subject have long known that the emissions forecast that generates most of the scary headlines of the last few years is known as RCP 8.5 (short for “Representative Concentration Pathways” never use plain language when you can use forbidding jargon), and most experts agree that its very high emissions forecast is bunk.
Andriy OnufriyenkoGetty Images
We often talk about the ways climate change affects the Earth (think: polar bears teetering on shrinking ice caps) but forget to consider its impact on our own health. Recently, an urgent report from several federal agencies emphasized this connection, including both straightforward consequences (such as that warmer oceans mean more frequent and intense hurricanes) and indirect hazards like how extreme weather events knock out medical services, making it harder to treat people.
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Our health risks are changing because of climate shifts,” says John Balbus, M.D., M.P.H., a senior adviser for public health at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.