La Nouvelle Tribune
By Marty Makary – The Wall Street Journal.
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Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, weâd call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Dr. Marty Makary argues that more than half of the American population has reached herd immunity and predicts that the coronavirus pandemic will be "mostly gone" by April.
The United States will reach a level of herd immunity to COVID-19 that will allow for a return to normal by April, according to Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health.