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Approaching Normalization, JP Morgan Looks Ahead at Equity Returns, and Energy Extends the Commodities Rally

By: BCM Investment Team The U.S. economy continues its pursuit of “normal” as both the manufacturing and services PMIs ease off their post-pandemic surges into more typical growth territory. Could this signal an easing in inflationary pressures as growth in services prices also decelerates? Banks meanwhile are easing lending standards to give greater access to consumer loans, but will there be high demand after so many used their stimulus payments to dig out of debt? And as JP Morgan publishes a somewhat dour prediction for the equity markets, bond yields around the world have fallen as supply and new issuance remains high particularly in the high yield market. Meanwhile, in commodities, Bloomberg’s commodity index hit highest level since 2015 as oil prices jump following OPEC’s failure to make a deal on increasing production. Good thing renewables are expanding their market share… Looking globally, not everyone is on the road back to normal as China’s debt could mean th

Pricing Pressures, Inflation Indicators, and Crypto Concerns

Retail and Manufacturing Losses, a Dwindling Housing Supply, and the 10-Year UST Yield Hits 1 67%

By: BCM Investment Team February’s retail sales losses were more severe than expected with sectors following a familiar pattern but have still managed to grow year-over-year. Manufacturing also felt the effects of last month’s freezing temperatures and underperformed expectations by over 3%. Housing prices meanwhile continue to soar in a trend that looks primed to continue as supply runs worryingly short. A $1,400 stimulus check may not make much of a dent in a down payment, but is it doing much good in a savings account? The 10-year UST yield hit a fresh 13-month high ahead of the Fed decision which Bank of America called “one of the most critical events for the Fed in some time” this week, inching closer to the 2% yield many fund managers believe could spark a 10%+ correction in equities. And what lies ahead on the international stage as commodities, EM exports, and new waves of Covid all climb higher?

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