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Modeling food crises: Looking at a complex problem through two lenses Families wait to collect food. Photo © Dominic Chavez/World Bank Food insecurity is complex problem with profound and long-lasting humanitarian consequences. Last year, more than 820 million people were undernourished and at least 130 million were estimated to be in food crisis. Although humanitarian organizations frequently react swiftly and effectively once a crisis is declared, crisis declarations are made based on increased mortality which means irreversible damage has already been done. Getting a head start on anticipating looming food crises is the common goal of two recent PRWP publications. The work explores the capacity of readily observable data and statistical models to provide risk estimates at alternative time horizons and with different geographic detail. “Predicting Food Crises”, predicts local outbreaks of food crises through random forests (RF). “Stochastic Modeling of Food Insecurity”

South sudanIntegrated food security phase classificationPrediction policy problemதெற்கு சூடான்ஒருங்கிணைந்த உணவு பாதுகாப்பு கட்டம் வகைப்பாடுப்ரிடிக்ஶந் பாலிஸீ ப்ராப்லம்