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Moody s unit sees slower growth for Philippines
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MACROVECTOR / FREEPIK
New techniques of predicting growth have proliferated recently. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), for instance, has added to its suite of forecasting models, “nowcasting” models, to estimate growth as a measure of domestic demand in formulating monetary policy. The results of these quantitative exercises are exclusively for internal use but BSP’s performance has been satisfactory. Its business cycle model, business and consumer expectations surveys, as well as high-frequency data monitoring have also supported its macroeconomic surveillance.
Other central banks have similarly embarked on nowcasting because relying on quarterly economic and financial data with long lags and frequent revisions would serve very little purpose. Nowcasting yields economic estimates in virtually real-time in lieu of the official measures. Many advanced economies have shifted to this methodology following the exponential improvements in computing power. For instance, the R