Along the Road to Recovery: Jobs, Economic Growth, and Inflation etftrends.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from etftrends.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
April 30, 2021
Last September we published a commentary and video discussing the narrowness of the stock market recovery to that point. At that time, large cap stocks had outpaced small caps and the growth style had outperformed the value style by the largest spread in more than 20 years. We then took a deeper dive into how the recovery had been dominated by a few sectors as only a handful of stocks had driven market results to that point.
Looking back at the markets since last September, we can see how dramatically the situation has changed. For example, from September through March, the Russell 1000 Value Index has outperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index 25.43% to 6.65%. Given where we think we are in the economic recovery and comparing our view to historical trends, we think that the value style can continue to outperform growth for months to come.
Building Economic Momentum – Navigating The Widening Recovery April 12, 2021
Our outlook for the U.S. economy has improved. We now expect real GDP growth over the course of 2021 to be close to 7%, which would be the fastest annual growth rate since 1984.
Monetary conditions in the U.S. continue to look strong as do measures of fundamental economic health, such as purchasing manager indices (PMIs). The following graph shows the three-month moving average PMI minus the 12-month moving average PMI. When the 12-month is higher than the three-month, the pace of economic growth is expected to be slowing. Conversely, when the three-month is higher than the 12-month, as is the case today, we expect the pace of economic growth to be accelerating.
The Fixed Income Conundrum: Part 2 Diversification Solutions April 5, 2021
For investors and advisors, planning for income has been a consistent and escalating challenge for more than a decade. More recently, we have seen a yield curve inversion, a recession, and the 10-year treasury drop to a historic low at just over 0.50%. Today, plan implementation with traditional bonds is as challenging as it has ever been while inventories are light, spreads are tight, and yield is hard to come by. At the same time, we have seen a massive rise in the availability and adoption of fixed income ETFs as a viable alternative to achieve diversified exposure in the fixed income markets. In fact, according to Bloomberg, U.S. fixed income ETF assets are nearing $1 trillion (exhibit 1). Additionally, fixed income ETF growth has spanned all areas of the fixed income market and now offers easy access and diversification opportunities previously not readily available to individual investors. In the fol
More Economic and Market Upside to Come etftrends.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from etftrends.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.