The coronavirus pandemic provide an opportunity for relief in yemen on the 5th anniversary of the start of the war the un urges a truce on the return to peace talks what are the prospects of ending a conflict that has destroyed the lives of millions of yemenis this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program Bernard Smith much of the worlds focus is on the growing coronavirus pandemic and as the war on the disease is stepped up the United Nations is calling for a cease fire and all the wars such as in syria and yemen saying people should focus on fighting the outbreak not each other the warring sides in yemen a cautiously backing the uns appeal 5 years of conflict have killed at least 100000 people and created the worlds worst humanitarian crisis 24000000 people nearly 90 percent of the population need urgent food aid and the fighting has intensified as reports. March 2015 and the who thiis push into central caved in. And begin expanding their influence not only in southern yemen but over most of the country president out of the month so has he fled to saudi arabia where he called for a military intervention by arab nations. All march 25th a Saudi Led Coalition launched their military campaign to oust the whole thiis. Operation the size of storm further expanded targeting military installations. Missile Defense Systems and im in addition to pose across the country. But it was yemeni civilians who bore the brunt of war the un and International Aid agencies accuse the Saudi Led Coalition of indiscriminately bombing Populated Areas in the last 5 years thousands of people have been killed and yemenis dont have enough to eat with warnings of famine yemen is described as the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. We need are huge and it is essential that the level of assistance that we are currently writing is maintained to ensure that the situation doesnt deteriorate credibly precarious situation and humanitarian way is a life for millions saudi arabia and the u. A. E. Said the goal was to defeat the healthy rebels and restore how these government of the scope of their involvement raised many concerns among yemenis the u. A. E. Supports militias in the south that operate secret prisons where detainees are tortured. The kingdoms hugely expensive military campaign has failed to ask the who these saudi officials accuse iran of supporting the who are these the shia rebel group that rose to prominence in 2014 when it took over the capital sanaa with the help of former president ali abdullah saleh. Also known as unsubtle or the partisans of government have repeatedly launched cross border attacks targeting the oil rich kingdom i was they have expanded their territory by taking control of well jove province near the saudi border and fightings intensifying in the oil rich province of merrier. Forces supporting the exiled president had with creating after suffering a series of setbacks weve seen 40000 people just in the 3 months of this year who have been displaced now theyre being forced into desert like conditions an overt credit cans without access to water without access to sanitation and this is really putting peoples lives at threat the u. N. Still hopes to convince the warring factions to implement the terms of the agreement signed in stockholm 2 years ago. As a feuding sides failed to reconcile their differences the stalemate is likely to play more innocent lives. 0. Lets bring in our power more and joining us from yemens capital sanaa is hussein the a journalist and commentator on who the affairs from golf in bergen sweden are from nasa research on yemen for Human Rights Watch from london Elizabeth Kendall a Senior Research fellow in arabic and islamic studies at Pembroke College at the university of oxford welcome to you all elizabeth let me ask you 1st is the timing right do you think now for people to heed the u. N. Secretary general call for a cease fire my conditions on the ground mean there could be one i sink there is now an opportunity in this awful adversity now really is the time as the United Nations secretary general and the special envoy have both said to lay down the weapons before an even greater catastrophe in goals yemen if ever the 2 main warring sides needed an excuse so to speak to starts to pull back from their very entrance of positions this is it and they could be statesman like they wouldnt need to make excuses its very clear that the urgency of the moment gives them an opportunity to really behave in a way that for once puts the people of yemen 1st now i dont think that this is at all an opportunity to solve the long term issues of yemens war which are very complex none of which have been really addressed but it does certainly give everyone an excuse to get around the table to get into political discussions to allow the u. N. To step in and broker the beginning of a long term solution. The conditions are ripe for a cease fire. I think if not now when then it should be now. And i think this is a Perfect Timing a very in can a very convenient timing for the warring parties especially the who tease and the saudi that quotient and i would say its even more appropriate for saudi arabia i think a lot of people claim there are saudi arabia is really struggling and winning this unwinnable war and and this is a Perfect Timing for or a perfect opportunity for saudi arabia in particular to have some feast saving a paternity or a sort of an excuse where they can get an exit point from this war without losing face. Hussein. The have the upper hand at the moment would they be interested in in a cease fire. Yes they have the upper hand. Ready for any ceasefire lets me do that for a month ago but it isnt much shouted in sanaa has announced a cease fire from sanaa to stop attack saudi arabia but he say the saudi as well must stop that it is the like till now saudi has not recognized neither to say yes or no to this truce but it is and they are willing for any ceasefire if they are asked to stop fighting in the next 5 minutes they will do so is actually the idea always does want to actually any cease fire and if though now we see that the salado the enemy out of you have the upper hand they have gained more territory but it isnt that much thought yesterday they have said that the end of that is the state of the great pain of saudi arabia and he said that in the new state if this all you will not stop. There i will cut there i will come in any troops that will come that will stop all fighting across yemen and the blockade should be lifted especially now with the crowd us but that yemeni people need. Them outside elizabeth intransigence of both sides in this conflict but if the who things have got the upper hand theyve taken control of the Northern Province of your wife there could be launching an assault on mari why have a ceasefire now when they are in this position of strength. Well the problem here is that no side ever figure its the ultimate optimal time for a ceasefire some point the sides do have to sit down and talk and agree a cease fire and think about the future of the country and really if saudi arabia is not willing to accept that the who sees do in fact control territory in which the majority of the population of yemen lives and have to be part of a power sharing government ultimately then then when you know because as as a for us says this is the time dont forget yemen has already seen over 2000000 cases of cholera one can only imagine what the coronavirus would do to yemen at a time when the Health Sector is in ruins now is the time for everyone to sit down and make the ceasefire and to think about how they can iron out these very elusive questions about how power territory and resources will be shared between the varying sides in yemen not just the who sees not just the coalition and the head of government but also the southerners currently led by the Southern Transitional council Everyone Needs to get around the table and talk off rather some 800000 internally displaced yemenis around there or who the fighters heading there what are the consequences there if there is no ceasefire. Catastrophic. If. You could run a Virus Outbreak happens then yemen will be given the you know the the the level of displacement and also the level of of the water the lack of the lack of water and then midst of fighting by who he will be absolutely catastrophic it will be. Like rubbing salt into wound because yemenis have been suffering facing cholera outbreak and other various disc diseases since 2016 about what over 1000000 people have been invectives of color are about 3000 people have died already of cholera so it will be absolutely catastrophic and i think i i want to refer to 11 point we were talking about like how this this opportunity could be. You know and important timing for a saudi arabia but i think even for who i think especially given that the human tarion. Relief operation could be hampered because of the lack of you know travel globally and also into yemen i think its very important for her with us to understand that they cant milk International Aid money for too long and that has to be and who wait of making you know of of having a governess and making an income for it for if lets say quote unquote their state so i think its for a both sides they have to rethink how they can make use of this of this opportunity and really see millions of people suffering and also for their for the warring parties interests themselves. Hussein the the outbreak of cholera nie in yemen didnt really do an awful lot to stop either who theses or the Saudi Led Coalition to provoke them to stop fighting why would the coronavirus this time round you think. Be good for a cease fire. I think that china is a good chance because you see the corona virus is all over the news and it had spread in many country who have who have advanced Health Care Like in germany and china and u. S. So just imagine if it would reach yemen that the government here is and i have taken some measures to to try to to stop coronavirus from entering yemen just as an example they have requested the aid in to stop all flights from coming to aden and even though there was one to 2 flight come in a day and sometimes thats all you know to allowing the flights as soon as coronavirus started to spread around the world so the idea was to send in an hour and 45. 00 flights to come into yemen this it looks like that the idea actually want grown up virus spread in yemen as they did with the with the blockade on yemen and i just i just want to mention of course some people might wonder why the how they have now the upper hand they were they want to lose i just want to say that when jose or for the troops for a month ago it was after they they strike back the oil fields in saudi arabia they were strong at the time they could strike again but all the time before they take a big action they always try to reach peace. About matt if you can give me a few minutes. On our government here they have for that matter a truce on 3 condition that they have to have been the road between. The government should not obstruct the oil and the gaza flow to yemeni a population in sanaa and they should need not be a base for the so default is to target areas under the control of sanaa matt it has not responded to this truce they dont have say yes or no so now its as we say its their decision is in that hunt but very quickly in advance toward moderate though they had requested those 3. Request from them if they dont accept them i believe that in the coming weeks we will see i made an attack against market but very quickly hussein oversee the ceasefire is not entirely altruistic i mean you need Economic Relief as well the conditions for your people. Are pretty dire as well on the way. I mean they didnt and. This is a nation and. Civilians in. Other areas they suffer from that god shortages because so we got i guess not i would not have government total to send constant supplies to yemeni civilians i mean that how they are not going to making any profit from that because all the guys thats coming here its bait for voted for the gas company in moderate but saudi arabia by broken the gazan oil from coming into yemen they can i will control the flow of gazan oil thats coming through for they drop out they want to have but i see on yemeni civilians they think that yemeni what will go on like that if lucian i guess the whole thing but at the end if you see 5 years of war over the you know are stronger they have more what is the strike didnt cite so we got a guy night out of a minute and so again i mean it is becoming really really weak and that exposed what they are doing in the south they dont really want to bring her back they are establishing militia i the army is that does not recognize how the government ok elizabeth the u. N. This made the call for a ceasefire but the u. S. Really struggled to mediate this conflict in yemen are they the they do things still the best broker so they should be looking elsewhere other gulf countries or to the u. N. Yes i can understand why many now look at the United Nations and think this war has gone on for 5 years many people saw it coming for many years before that why on earth have they not managed to find a solution so confidence is low in the u. N. But think of it like this they really had a poisoned chalice i think that things have massively improved since Martin Griffiths took over a special envoy progress has been made a Peace Agreement of sought to cease fire was signed in stockholm and 2018 it was very vague and its been difficult to implement and things havent got too much worse and so at least the un is neutral its very hard to find other neutral players in this. I think that the un is still everyones best bet but what it needs is International Pressure behind the Coalition Partners and other warring sides in the war to bring them to the table so that the u. N. Can work its magic and at the moment particularly with western economies so reliant on arms sales and for example in the u. K. Concerns over bricks it and wanting to keep our allies in the middle east no one really wants to bring that High Pressure to bear but in short i think the u. N. Is still the best bet for this are for things havent got much worse since the signing of the Peace Agreement in georgia it could the u. N. Be but is there is there a better broker than the u. N. Do you think. I. I hate to disagree with dr elizabeth but here i would disagree and i think its not only the u. N. I think it takes everyone to and the suffering of millions of people in yemen and find some political resolution that took into consideration also Accountability Measures and redressing or all the you know injustices that victims and their relatives have been facing and this 5 year years long war but i think there has to be a political will from the u. N. Security council for example that they need to establish a new resolution that take takes more balanced and comprehensive. Approach to the new reality inside yemen and also if it takes. We need a political will from the neighboring countries and to yemen so in the gulf countries there has to be an understanding that what is going on in yemen it will backfire eventually if there is and for example of there is a call the 1000 outbreak in yemen that will absolutely back fire to the other neighboring countries so there has to be a new initiative lets say from kuwait from a month to come up with a political settlement and also the 3rd important aspect here it requires a political will from the domestic warring parties inside yemen to find some sort of such a political settlement for a power sharing government say or anything similar like that where who is the use has the that is d. C. And other there is can find and and an end to the suffering of millions of yemenis so it takes everyone to find a solution. Elizabeth i do need to ask you about the saudi u. A. E. Relationship both of them seem to be looking for a way out of the yemen quagmire but how are there strains in the relationship between the 2 we know theres a very good personal report between the leader of the u. A. E. And the crown prince in saudi arabia but other than that are there strains that could also affect any ceasefire. Yes youre right to raise this there certainly are strains now of course we did see the riyadh agreement being signed in november last year which papered over the cracks in the coalition and enabled there to proxies on the ground being the Southern Transitional council supported by the u. A. E. And the head a government supported by saudi arabia and nominally also by the way to mend their differences this was just a cosmetic solution it kicked the can down the road none of the underlying issues have been solved and the southerners still at least the proportion of them represented by the Southern TransitionalCouncil Still want secession as their ultimate goal and the head of government doesnt now so i think its very important to highlight that there are various fractures with in the coalition and even if a ceasefire were achieved there are other problems that will knock into effect for example what will happen to all the soldiers and militias of which are dozens dozens of militias who rely on the war for their livelihoods what will happen to all those corrupt officials who rely on the war and the war economy to fill their own coffers and what will happen when they have to try to share government with the who says there are so many problems down the road we havent even seen the technocratic government that the riyadh agreement promised come into force yet so the idea of more than a 2 way northsouth a 3 way North South East these and even multiple way bringing in federal regions government seems almost beyond reach parts thats what the u. N. Has to try to reach for and