Transcripts For ALJAZ Counting The Cost 2020 Ep 13 20240713

Transcripts For ALJAZ Counting The Cost 2020 Ep 13 20240713

The world will americans be required to take part in the count during a National Emergency and will donald trump and immigration rhetoric deter some from participating follow the u. S. Census on aljazeera. Hello im sammys day than this is counting the cost on aljazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week a Mighty Dollar for all the talk of emerging challenges when push comes to shove the dollar proves its the worlds reserve currency we find out why a Financial System riddled with bad debts india tends to revive the countrys 4th largest bank as depositors yank their cash. And saudi arabias Oil Price War with russia could send crude prices to 10. 00 a barrel with an oil producer like indonesia cope. 9 trillion dollars and counting thats what rich nations have spent so far on the coronavirus pandemic theyre trying to make sure theres a functioning economy if they get to grips with the outbreak well the damage done is likely to surpass the financial crisis maybe even the Great Depression what is known its the worst economic crisis in the last 70 years well at this time theres a rush to safety the 11 year bull run in u. S. Stock markets is over and theres one safe haven everyone is banking on and its not gold its the dollar for all the talk of the dollar would lose its reserve. Currency status its proved to be just that talk lets take a look at some examples now emerging markets have borne the brunt of the rush for dollars indonesias appear lost almost 14 percent of its value since the beginning of the year the russian ruble and mexican peso lost a 5th of their values the problem for emerging markets they might want to cut Interest Rates to stimulate carona hit economies but that would undermine their currencies further and Interest Payments on dollar denominated debt is just soared unbalancing finances and sterling fell more than 10 percent or to a low of 1. 14 a level last seen in 185. 00 the u. K. s divorce from the European Union has broken the resilience of the pound which was considered to be tethered to the fortunes of the continent well not anymore the best performing currency just happens to be the arjen time peso best performing of course in the sense its fall in the least compared to other latin american nations having capital controls has certainly helped though now the dollar has been the worlds leading currency for more than a century today more than 60 percent of all foreign Bank Reserves are in dollars lets find out what happened to all those challengers to the dollars crown with jamil akhmed hes the global head of currency strategy and Market Research at f. X. T. M. He joins us via skype from london good to have you with us jimi so this crisis is shown its just been a lot of talk about the dollar ending its still the worlds current reserve currency of choice right absolutely yes listen the dollars not only remains to it just was a game of the dollar is on the line. Has been on the guy and for extreme long time it dominates all of the serving under an. This is being something thats in been in play for close to a century now since 4 times and we still do 2030 years away from anybody being able to say that they could challenge a dollar yes some currency segment 8 progress but the dollar still funded every white globally for so many Different Reasons and we just look at the dollar performance over the past week we had the dollar strengthened by close to 5 percent on a weekly basis thats it strongest performances 2000 and currencies such as the british pound as a result that all of domination plunged the love was nothing seen a 55. 00 is gold recently had its worst year since the late 1980 s. And even the Australian Dollar has lost over 20 percent yet today there is no contender to the dollar this is this is the end game but the dollars trump is so strong right now its superior like if youre a sports fan its like watching liverpool in the premier league this season theres no 2nd challenge he said that he says the endgame hang on to me a does that mean the yuan has squandered its chance there was a time when some were predicting the on could be the worlds reserve currency this is still unlikely and we dont see this full out you know even this being a possibility for the next 20 or 30 yes 1st much progress as the chinese yuan and the chinese economy has made to global contributions over the past 20 years and still has so much more to go for example if we look at the. One minute of it all as we look at a Foreign Exchange reserves International Debt International Loans punishing to turn over the dollar is still supreme and actually the only 2nd character that can come into play on this is the euro and even the euro is that france before all of its suffering and see whether the euro could collapse the chinese yuan in that table is no one can it be one day yes but when it happens just crucify 10th isnt that right now with the year at about 70 percent but its been a bit of a dissolve to this rising dollar dissolve the 4 emerging markets though right it is we have a recipe for disaster right now when it comes to emerging markets performance and the current sees you have a global disease outbreak that is that its a Health Disaster this is going to contribute to global recession which means thats as low a great everywhere as a result of this stock market stepping in freefall which essentially means there has been no appetite to whats emerging markets because they assume that risky assets that you dont invest in in Uncertain Times and with this youve got the dollar that strong finning across the board just to make you some of the casualties the russian ruble has declined by close to 30 percent this year the presidium reality as much as that to the indian rupee has hit a record low the South African rand has weakened by 20 percent days being simply no end in sight when it comes to prisoners against the dollars raying all emerging market currencies have to climb yesterday and even those that have been declined as much such as the Malaysian Ringgit as one example it still has declined by beyond 5 percent even still ling though i mean it was once upon a time a very Stable Currency whats happened the last week. I guess you could say the importance of fastening is the wealth on the wild descent down 90 fasten your seat by the glass shattered on the british throne and over the past week up into the beginning of last week we can say that the british pound was per performer pretty risen. Against various concerns of one of the major currencies including the euro to Australian Dollar swiss franc japanese it was the most well its how to the virus concerns but as soon as that virus epidemic intensified into the u. K. And consume severed u. K. Lock down which essentially is what were at right now came into play the produce pounds source of worst performance in decades now explain this for us the Federal Reserve is pumping dollars as fast as they can into the system its even going a commitment for whats being termed as quantitative easing infinity yet the thirst for dollars doesnt end why essentially because everybody wants a dollar cash is king right now by cash that means were sticking dollars underneath our pillowcases thats essentially what does what the ferry is in the market right now essentially even despite more than much start despite to emergency for the reserve Interest Rate cuts the Federal Reserve announced an i. Q. Judge Stimulus Program a quantitative easing everybody still wants the greenback thats because the greenback is funded in so many different methods from loans to that so Oil Transactions go to name everything star dominates it and at the same point its again its been a would reserve currency for a century since war times and that will not change anytime soon which gives president towards why everybody still wants the u. S. Dollar all right Interesting Times it is thanks so much. Oil prices could be headed to 10. 00 a barrel as the Global Economy heads towards recession and the Oil Price War between saudi arabia and russia is adding to the crisis problems of piling up for countries that are both importers and exporters of oil such as indonesia aljazeera as jessica washington has the story from jakarta. Around the world the corona Virus Outbreak isnt just a Health Emergency its also an economic one disruptions just supply chains were given that such a dramatic price war in the oil market was unexpected a falling out between saudi arabia and russia us back to the shop its one day crushing Oil Prices Since the gulf war indonesia is one of the countries thats both an export and importer and economists think it could be a challenging time for the country and its oil industry be exposed the us will really going to feel the pinch i think the forests is. Impacting the Global Economy chinas economy will feel the slowdown the Global Economy will feel it a slowdown like almost everything in recent weeks the slump in oil prices comes back to the corona Virus Outbreak china the worlds biggest importer of oil was turning back tank is as its economy began to contract. Saudi arabia called for a massive cut in production but russia disagreed and in response riyadh ramped up production indonesia is a net importer of Oil Production has been steadily on the decline and domestic consumption on the rise some fear volatility in the sector may not bode well for the future prospects of indonesias domestic industry with lower prices. Attractive enough festers but a Foreign Investment into the oil sector. And what we need the most right now is investment coming in to really push level of production because our oil lifting the production of oil currently on a declining path. Executives at indonesias state owned Oil Company Pertamina away in the prospects of an indefinite price war that. We will add to our stock because the price is low but demand is also low it all depends on capacity as well as the downside there are pockets of opportunities for some economies but the general instability isnt welcome for most things on how to get. Income from exports will fall it may be good for imports but theres still less money for the government this is the impact of the virus as the virus continues its spread there may be more economic shocks on the way just to washington aljazeera jakarta. Leaving before the Coronavirus Crisis indias Financial Institutions were causing concern because of their large debts yes bank the 4th largest lender in india was taken over by the government this month thats the 3rd rescue this year aljazeera has elizabeth for random reports from the capital new delhi. Some good news at last. The government. Imposed during the government. Is due to end on wednesday. The government took control on march the 6th because the bank had too many bad debts and loans which werent being repaid the take. Customers lining up to get their money out and the government imposing the with it for the bailout of the government of the reserve bank of india brought together 8. 00 banks led by the state bank of india the largest in the country the bank is again highlighting the banking crisis involving Financial Institutions with too many bad. Banks which dont face the same regulations as. Companies. Yes Bank Customers included some of indias biggest businesses including the neelam barney group and bonnie was once one of indias richest people rather than incremental big increase in credit was going to all of the promoters who were who were werent before before were not able to pay back their bank loans taken much earlier like in the u. P. A. The previous regime so so so that sort of turned out all the cronies ended up getting more loans to pay back their earlier loans the government has accused u. S. Banks found and his family of laundering around 600000000. 00 by receiving kickbacks for extending loans that couldnt be repaid kapoors lawyer says hes being made a scapegoat 5th largest private analysts say the toxic loans crisis goes beyond a few bad apples its the 3rd time in a year that indias reserve bank has intervened to rescue a lender the where are bad loans and. Have plagued our economy our Financial System the last 5 years what are beyond government had been hoping for a slow train wreck you know they want to soft land the problems that they were they were looking over but in this business there is no slow train wreck a train wreck of the train wreck it will cause damage. Many are asking why the government didnt notice us banks massive growth with the economy suffering a significant slowdown yes banks rescue comes at a bad time for indias economy which is growing at its lowest pace in over 6 years the government is now investigating why the take all the had to happen the financial analysts say on this the entire. 3rd biggest economy could deteriorate further elizabeth problem aljazeera new delhi. Well joining us via skype from singapore is darren asia economist at Capital Economics good to have you with us what went so wrong that yes bank well. What i think happened is mostly a Corporate Governance issue so in particular was a lot of overly risky lending practices that was going on a few years ago and it just led up to a build up of nonperforming loans and a deterioration in u. S. Banks financial position now this is of course the 3rd bank rescue this year has the problem been solved or should we expect more banks to run into trouble well indias Banking Sector is it has its share of problems and i dont think an issue like this would be so easily eliminated and of course several measures that the government would probably put in place over the next few years or so to try and attempt to clean up whatevers going on so i flat out doing it like what will it take to clear this one up so in terms of Corporate Governance that theyre simple things like trying to adopt best practice accounting and International Auditing standards of or enforcing more stringent punishments for cases of financial fraud or irregularities. One interesting think thing about the yes bang issue is that this was a private sector bank and. Its kind of stock counterpoint against the idea that privatization of the Banking Sector would help with all these issues but i still think that if theyre small a great amount of private sector involvement there will be some therell be some improvements made into clearing up these Corporate Governance issues mainly because the banks on average perform better and they are less cases of fraud and financially rant irregularities in private sector banks than republic banks why this was a bad time for the economy even before the coronavirus whats going on with growth do you think so much of the slowdown has happened over the last year or so can be traced back to the problems in the shadow Banking Sector and what that did was it created a squeeze of credit because a lot of risk aversion and reluctance to lend to these banks started to take place after fs default it into an 18 and it basically cause investment of the slump and then from there on you see this. Gradual continuous slowdown since late. One assumes current virus is only going to make that growth worse right well were quite pessimistic about the outlook for this year right now because. The immediate issue now i guess is that the mission might lock down has been announced a few days ago thats going to cause growth to slump because sectors like manufacturing transport and retail and theyre all going to ground to a hot and what this is going to do is basically youre just going to see g. D. P. Growth drop and were forecasting it to fall to a 4 decade low all right thanks so much darren for coming and talking to us about that thank you now the travel and Tourism Industry accounted for more than 10 percent of the Global Economy in 2018 creating 319000000 jobs worldwide the industry was the 1st to face the brunt of the pandemic as travelers cancel their bookings the Airline Industry is expected to lose more than 250000000000. 00 in revenue this year as airlines are forced to ground their craft so how is the Industry Holding up well our next guest is the chief executive of travel management startup travel perk admire joins us from barcelona via skype good to have you with us lets start with the more visible part of the industry that airlines of course they stand to lose what tens of billions of dollars theyre telling their employees to take leave sometimes unpaid leave what sort of consequences of a facing. And youre right that there are times are in a very. Difficult spocks absent like many other areas it industry were looking out for the consideration of the most routes now for an ice many many planes are actually empty just to kee

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