A moment. Where retreat from the world. Every generation has its moment. Is ours. Hello im Darren Jordan this is counting the cost on aljazeera you look at the world of business and economics this week the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc across Subsaharan Africa nations turn to the i. M. F. And world bank to see them through the crisis the biggest Oil Production cuts in history but album on a case of the persian gulf about to blow their wealth and just how low will oil prices go. A union divided on sharing the Economic Cost of the pandemic why france and italy are lining up against germany and the netherlands debt. Now Subsaharan Africa could be plunged into its 1st recession in 25 years as the Global Health crisis brought about by the corona virus wreaks havoc many nations like nigeria south africa are dependent on commodities for a large chunk of trade and revenues all have been decimated as economies have ground to a halt well the World Bank Estimates growth could tumble to minus 5 point one percent from 2. 4 percent triggering Food Insecurity the pandemic could cost the region as much as 79000000000. 00 in lost output from falling Commodity Prices to a drop in tourism the Nigerian Government to seeking 7000000000. 00 in emergency funding from the i. If and world bank its last budget assume that oil prices would be around 59. 00 a barrel its currently trading at half that right now and kenya is in talks to tap the world bank and i. M. F. For 1200000000. 00 and the i. M. F. Says zimbabwe needs hundreds of billions of dollars to avert a humanitarian crisis more than 2 weeks after zimbabwe imposed a nationwide lockdown its easing some restrictions the countrys already facing its worst economic crisis in a decade and the measures are threatening the livelihoods of people aljazeera has more from harare. Some relief was the barbarians who rely on relatives living abroad to send the money for days some people havent had to pass to buy food and other essentials its forced the government to ease a 3 week coronavirus lucked out that means Money Transfer agencies can now open but only 3 times a week theyre opening it was a little far for creation model for families was most of these guys are relying on not just what are the images which is a big big contribution of me mr comes to the desk of coming into the into the country it is unusual the nationwide lockdown has affected many sectors of the economy brian unger makes and sells sculptures mainly for the foreign markets he cant do that now as you can see always quote. Me coming. On the. Visitors who are coming to view all of this is. In a country facing its worst economic crisis in a decade soaring inflation shortages a foreign currency food and electricity Global Travel restrictions have left places empty more than 2000000 visitors came to zimbabwe last year most traveled from the parts of Africa Europe and the u. S. The money they brought in support of thousands of locals working in the Tourism Industry not many families are struggling. Some businesses are trying to get by fresh in a box deliver supplies to peoples houses customers order online so they can stay at home and try to keep safe a lot of austar feel to come into work obviously because of the distancing. That either of a lot of people are now using our service you know people are socially distancing and isolating their homes and so the Delivery Service business is really sort of become a lifeline for a lot of people who depend on us to bring their for. Very fishy to me shopping the other the government has removed at the lockdown restrictions families cannot sell produce at markets but social distancing and other precautions against a knaan of fire is a difficult to maintain like many african countries zimbabwe is battling with how to stop the spread of kopechne 1000. 00 without damaging and already crumbling economy had a much tighter aljazeera had. So thats the situation in zimbabwe kenyas economy had already been under strain but the corona virus could further stretch the countrys finances and there are fears that health care could be overwhelmed were joining us now via skype from nairobi is dr kathy wangi shes chief executive officer at m. Health kenya kathy we know that many rich nations have been severely stretched by code 19 but do you think that kenya has the resources to handle this pandemic i think it is we are faced by a im president at times right now and. With up and then make that has not discrimination and whether rich or poor but i think the Silver Lining in kenya situation is that many other countries that are what its embarrassing the last 30 days they get to watch and learn from the other countries and theres a lot of p. R. A lot going on and so i think when it comes to resources i also look actually sources from a different point of view and you know for maturity we go into one of the biggest resources of the convention but i think i would love the kenyan government has just that social and behavioral change we. Will see the government steps behind it would change encourage the will to enforce social change weve been receiving aid groups and were seeing the. Time shift. You knew what king environments and that just means sectors and they think of these are major changes even from a cultural point of view. I think this bill great impact you know or on the downward sort of Security Resources especially you know in any area where we know that the sources are limited the government is putting in place elaborate measures to prepare for the worst you know employing that the shovel start equipping festivities and setting up a Solution Centers lets just talk about the i. M. F. And the world bank for a 2nd because we know that kenya has asked the i. M. F. And the world bank for help is that money going to be sufficient for 10 years needs do you think. Adding great now anything helps you know like harry did i mean we are all living in the present at a time which is not Empirical Data or where the fire absolutely cards saw as too soft fission see that might be hard one to tell what we can probably starts to think about is efficiency so thats the little we get from the i am not that well order and that you know even the private sector you know can be utilized properly i have seen all sectors greats now working together the private sector is becoming more important for him in providing to me shuns expertise in different capacities where we have got and maybe even all these efforts are going to help improving our efficiencies in the long run i represent the private sector and enable kenya you know has been contributing in a small missing our technology to assist in Contact Tracing maybe messaging contacts tracking those who are being managed from whole and this is done in collaboration with many others to all does who want to see that country get about to the war so i think in this case it doesnt matter where the funding is coming from a lot of the thick oil does who all have a good interest in making sure that we have 3 or or think of it 1000 men back to all we know that we know that some nations cathy have been able to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the countrys Health Services is this something do you think kenya will be able to do absolutely i think i can say with all your doubt given the overwhelming concerted efforts that we are seeing from across the divide you know we are all trained not to do that and and we we are all doing what we can to to support each other and to educate. I was talking to a friend the other be telling them that you know before it was not it was normal to to to greet it and if you never actually get it and in our culture you look like us not wish now everybody. Is working towards. Making sure that we were keeping distance were Wearing Masks but we last saw and i have seen the government make great efforts communicating that seen a lot of interest just about time contacts tracing and. You know. The media is also playing a really big grueling informing the masses and getting to the really really really more remote areas so that everybody whether youre in the rural or urban area you or your. And i think the ball we educate them all we we get to people and the more the country that the government needs continuously the efforts that they are making i want to believe that we. Have dr Cathy Michael we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost already take you. Now despite an historic cut in production the world is still oversupplied with oil and prices could head below 20. 00 a barrel and that would decimate the finances of many opec members and put 80 percent of u. S. Shale producers out of business even if Oil Prices Fall to 10. 00 a barrel the rich monna case of the persian gulf are still able to eke out gains as other nations make losses were prior to this crisis the International Monetary fund warned that arab monarchies risk laundering their 2 trillion dollars in wealth within the next 15 years. Well joining us via skype from doha is can he see a direct Asset Management at our eye on investment at par so a huge historic cut in Oil Production but prices are unlikely to hit 50. 00 a barrel this year what does this mean then for budgets and for spending. Well its clearly negative the break even the break even the budget break even prices for the gulf countries range from the low mid fiftys up to probably 8097. 00 more than 100. 00 for some of the states so if oil currently at 30. 00 and potentially likely to far lower what this means is that either they run extraordinarily large deficits or they cut spending most likely it will be a combination of both where they do cut spending and they take loans or issue sovereign bonds to to finance the budget deficit and apple what does this mean then for saudi arabia in particular i mean the crown Prince Mohammed bin solomon he has some very ambitious plans to diversify the economy doesnt he does he does and hes not alone in the region all the regions are all the countries in the region are trying to diversify their economy means more than someone has probably the is in focus at the moment because hes the most recent to really push hard all the countries in the region have a 2030 plan or 2035 plan saudi is no different and for saudi and for the other countries this makes the diversification process far harder but also far more urgent but unfortunately in the Current Situation and we saw this in 20141516 all prices were also at very low levels it reverses significantly the speed of diversification at that time the 80 was introduced in a couple of the countries in the region including in saudi arabia unfortunately right now the opposite is happening and the opposite is required so you cannot be increasing taxes right now when actually the consumers both individual and corporate need help and stimulus from governments so it makes makes that makes the process of trying to know. Advocates for this far more complicated so lets talk about the impact then of the coronavirus pandemic what are the nations been doing to keep their economies afloat i mean qatar for example is paying some private sector wages what other nations doing so theres been a lot of announcements. And a lot of different types of help that has been announced and that ranges from announcements to to default of the Banking Systems to 2 as well as obviously Interest Rates have been cut but that was outside of the hands of the region because u. S. Interest rates were cut that said none of the Interest Rates in the region are at 0 percent like they are in the us so they havent been reflected quite quite as much but also theres a huge amount of fiscal measures so from cutting of government fees to cutting utilities to help with salaries to deferral of loan payments to a number of strategies to help as a means except for the worry though is that while there have been a lot of announcements that hasnt necessarily been implementation so its the timing of the implementation which varies from country to country saudi arabia actually is probably one of the countries which has implemented a little bit faster. The u. S. Has done a few few things as well but in many of the other countries you are seeing more announcements then than actual implementation of the measures are quite limited a final thought from you could there be enough stress in the system for other g. C. C. Countries with pegs to the u. S. Dollar to perhaps loosen those big bags in the region long help aids to the dollar. Are a economic as well as political decision like the euro is an economic and a political decision so unless there is very very severe economic pressure while there may be certain economic rationalists at times to. Loosen the peg so to devalue the currency i dont think any of any of the countries would do this unless they were forced to and forced to from a financial perspective the only country in the region where where the Financial Markets are indicating some concern for the strength of the peg is in oman where the 12 month forwards on the money reale are implying a 55. 00 or 6 percent weaker currency but even a man would be very hesitant to too deep a big unless they were forced to kuwait is the exception which many years ago moved to and moved its big not to a fixed big but to a basket of currencies so when the dollar is still the largest part of that basket so just gives it a little bit more flexibility so perhaps that might be a way forward for countries like a man but in general wouldnt expect the pegs to go anywhere anytime soon all rights are because we have to leave it there thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost thank you now the European Union has agreed a 500000000000 euro package for countries odd by the pandemic but they stopped short of putting boring as demanded by france and italy many observers believe this massive rescue package is not enough to kickstart economies after the crisis germany the key power broker has been opposed to the sharing of debt or socalled corona bombs aljazeera has done it came as more. Very slowly some people in each new countries are returning to work in madrid workers on Building Sites or resuming operations in italy to a very gradual return to work is underway in both these countries the mortality rate has been high but so has the economic damage and both countries are crying out for help from the e. U. Its olution is loans fast cash for Member States and exposed companies at preferential rates a 3 fold plan involving the European Investment bank the european stability mechanism and short working they had up to around the trillion euros a step change in the economic ordination we deal with our union this emergency plan well see old our economic and social fabric as we dive into a recession but this is not enough for the italians whose Prime Minister believes the e. U. Solution is way off the mark ballot but that the main battle that italy must carry on the european table concerns of fun that must be financed with the real economic sharing of the effort such as with euro bonds yes the euro bonds the famous euro bonds the fund that must have a power proportionate to the numbers and resources that are required by a war economy the fund must also be available immediately i am telling all my counterparts. But many central Northern European countries remain unconvinced by that specifically germany divison i see here a little bit as you know i dont believe in mutual responsibility in the current state of our Political Union and thats why we are rejecting that but there are many other ways to show solidarity and i think we can find Good Solutions you know some economists say what europe needs now is a sort of Marshall Plan for the 21st century with preexisting debt burdens guaranteed by the wealthier e. U. States as it stands right now the recession in the south will be a lot harder a lot more severe they are already up to their neck in debt the potential growth was already low so i think we need transfers from the north or the south of this is this the debate we need to be having the dilemma of the germans face is clear they believe in each use solidarity and they want to help however they know that there are important economic voices here we really dont want euro bonds to happen but they also know that if the southern european economies do tank it wont take too long for the impact to be felt here to dominic a aljazeera belin. Well joining us via skype from brussels is francesco puppet the hes a senior resident fellow at the Brueghel Institute he was the director general for Market Operations at the European Central bank francesco great to have you on the program look there seems to be money for e. U. States to fight the pandemic to keep economies afloat but not socalled corona bonds just talk us through that briefly when i think that indeed as you say there is money for countries to deal be the with the coleader 90 and this is of course are welcome and unlike the situation in emerging economies where the problem is much more receivers however its also true that there are some countries say germany that are in much more comfortable situation than other countries. And that because its an get situation and over its lack of growth of a very very large. Had to deal with th