A. Then the training that free is replaced. The come on to responsible for a lot of keys in the northeast. On monday, it can see that Russian Troops were making games along the border. There in the fonts deeper into the region, has prompted fears among western allies of a major assault on how to cave. Well, the city is ukraine, 2nd largest, located just 1st, the columbus is south of the russian border. When rusher invited in 2022, its soldiers crossed into the hockey region. Months later, the ukranian counts were offensive full Russian Troops to retreat. But selling and bombardment has continued. Now the russians a back can say theyve taken 9 villages in the matter of days. Is that your crime in ami on the back foot while trying to defend a 1000 kilometers of front line cause a delay in us moved to a proof to be a turning point in the well, well discuss these questions and more with, i guess in just a moment the 1st this report from imaging came to the russian army is advancing northeast. A new crane at its false just pace in more than 2 years. Since friday it says troops of taking 9 villages in the call, key region on the folder. According to the governor, im moving full size and people a big move to safety. But the method you will with up, im finding this taking place, 500 maces from my house. The volunteer river is 500 meters away from my house, and the russians are on the other side. Ukrainian tanks rolling suits and roll out there was shouting over time, military orders, you can hear people being captured shelves are flying, constantly dying and not the pregnant. What does this mans village both chance is unto ukrainian or russian control is disputed. Ukrainian omi says its fighting back rushers, suffering heavy doses with around 100. Its so just killed. But the president concedes the situation is difficult to have Daniel National actually not the most of the we need to inflict as many losses on the Occupying Forces as possible on the conditions on the outskirts of the city of, of chance are extremely challenging. The cities under constant russian fine and um, military launching council tax on the added conditions of similar lead. The internet says russian strategy could be to stretch ukrainian troops being on the ground across the border in russia. Ukraine shilling on belgrade. Killed several people that the weekend. I mean it sounds good form is just and we provided 1st aid and evacuated over people from the building. The people having breakdowns that was panic is syria, or is there a problem . Theyre going my grandmothers while most go president Vladimir Putin is re shuffling his cabinet. You know, a lot of the long time ally, so guy showing to us defense minister as ive seen the circle, the special Ministry Operation in ukraine now has the National Security council. Hes expected to be replaced by own dry values of a former deputy Prime Minister and economist, suggesting the president is looking to focus on the Defense Industries finances but ukraines biggest concern is the late to supply of us weapons. Without it, soldiers will be all right, mind and ive gone vulnerable to the russian ponces image and kinda how to 0 the inside story, the let spring i guess into the show now have joining us from odessa you crane honda shalas Security StudiesProgram Director do training in prison, a Foreign Policy and security think tank in vienna. Roger hilton is a defense and security fellow at global tech, a Global Think Tank focusing on security and sustainability and in moscow. Capital feldman, however, as an independent Russian Defense and ministry analysts good to have you will with us. Let me start with how to. We know the situation is serious right now and how the case, how serious is it . Its called a cave on the verge of fully never weve, we speak about the siege of car q. We are very far. Um, not close to that. Weve been before involved to the following. You need to, to send the cd or more than one medium, not the same as the small villagers or tall thatd be under the fire before color. Were definitely that is the new front line so far. So wed be in the aptitude even the last 6 months is, but that is the new developments because the new Russian Forces came with the uh why attack i will uh, probably characterize it as so. So in this case, it is just take you to of a lot of all the Defense Forces of the premium, the armed forces from the east, the prob, uh, to the northern prob. So in these case, we just have the new hauled support and the, allowing the prompt line that we had, even before. People do agree with that. How is russia pretty far from capturing the entire region, let alone, how to give city of 1000000 people as kind of pointed out of the Russian Forces across the border. They have been in this part of our blast in 20 to been the retreat and then the front line if the front, but it was the border. So there was not much troop separation on the premium side. And so the russians moved in again, are probing. Do you pray in defenses of the practice right now . This kind of mo bile skirmishes happening. They are several to wal mart. Theres from the cranium border. Know this is not very close to carter city. So this is kind of, uh, uh, we come through bateau situation may be rush or throwing more forces and try to push seriously. But right now its a crime this up to free trying operation on the, on the board. There may be the city of bo jones, russia says its already there. Youre creating a dispute at the city as for and thats a small town on the border. So right now its not yet developing into a major back the size of that, but then show roger. One thing i think everybody agrees in is that the time has changed. What is as russia down in order to change the situation around in places like hotkeys or i think a bit of an issue in the sense that youre insinuating that brochure is taking the drive on this. I mean, the conflict between russian and the credit is so much more than just the battlefield in the east. And while the last couple of days russia has been able to occupy 9 or 10 villages, i mean, is nowhere near has the mine power to theoretically take heart eve . There has been so much else going on about successes of ukraine where i think the media is focusing too much on this one spot right here. Just last thursday, you credit for all the is a not driven by the statements then of ukraine. It officials themselves who. Ready sides the situation is very difficult and hard key. They seem to indicate that you know, they are on the back for that. Absolutely. Im totally not mean that is a tough log in to add to at the moment of north and the date high to repossess forces. But if this is the best that russia has been able to put together, what were the last 6 months when ukraine is audience . Low and its actually quite an inspiring position right now. Thats not to say the heavy loss of the previous team. But given the string, the advantage that russia i wouldve expected them to do much better than where they are right now. Okay, let me bring in pavel for. Busy perspective on that, it all the advances in gains by russia actually over blown low russia is pushing forward really place is not going to be part of, of course, and then doing boss with moderate success, what to do with success. Now theres hope that in moscow that these pushes the venture with we to a snap and morale of ukrainian motor tree Ukrainian Society and the premium from the wine will begin to collapse. Oh dear, even the so right, that was such a disastrous of poor ukraine and the west scenario. Well, bush should be the premiums over there in the western allies seek some kind of bridge pro well with the russia to stop the slow but to spread the rushing of bands and get some kind of space prior swords on the back of your base, more or less on the present and ive been shot. I do want to pick up the lights are on the what this means for the prospect of diplomacy and talks about before we go down that road. Lets take it back to honda and honda. What impact is the russian advance and how to keep actually having at this moment all ukrainian force is being over stretched over and increasingly long frontline, you know, we probably need to, uh, make lots tabs uh behind um to understand the moment why these comforter funds are happening right now because for roster it is the very narrow timing when the count has gone so uh before your payment received all those weapons that been delayed by the us. And finally, the congress adopted a decision to the artillery, 1st of all, their killer ammunition that your brain be missing. For the last 6 months has started to ride to ukraine, bloss, were expecting in approximately a month of 16 as blocked in june. The check initiative was emanation also stopped. Delivery to rush on this time that may easily, thats modest when the biggest deal uh um in circle. So ill munition compared to ukraine to the needs to make a big push with all the forces before ukraine received a series backup. And in this case, i know were getting close to it. So i mean point is that what youre saying is, is this one way or another attorney point a to brush and make some big gains all the ukrainians will when they get americans supplies. Definitely do russia will not be able to take the big bank at least with what we see now with those forces economy and with those losses they have owned abroad. So it seems to, even from the tactics that they chose in the market region that the big occupational, the New Territories is northwards. They are really searching for this traction. Go to create the courses and to meet for your grades. Enforce its more difficult to start to counter offense as soon as they receive the immunization. Yeah, thats can do bottled, the prime are all goals but also demonstration that they can go for the mood, the town that theyve been trying to reapply for 9 months as a default to just destroy the child. So you kind of name it as a normal occupation, but they also need to the president ial elections to the new team, old new team that got me now the demonstration of a certain success as big as the previous month. So they werent below till far. Taylors inc crania, and we know that quite me is very symbolic for russia still, the needed to show or k, youre charging cost in premium. We will do it to where you feel vulnerable, and thats appears to be the target bridge. Him. Roger is the some concern, however, you frame this one as whether its over blown by the me do not, is the concern of, of the psychological impact of seeing images once again, what appears to be Russian Troops. Re taking parts of the hockey region. People having to flee, being bus down to the homes and pulled up in all the places in no way, am i trying to diminish the impact, the villagers who have had to leave and sort of re living all of this for over 800 days. And todays war now everybody, i just seen that just because theres been this temporary seizure disability at the rescue forces, ive had to come and rescue people and take them away. Do you think that thats going to have this Game Changing except on the route of the troops . I just dont buy it. Im, you know, position the massive them around. That will be coming to you bring in the forms of both the largest british a package and the american a package will surely sort of carry them over and its very tough moment. So im not buying that, you know, just because of these very type images. And of course, the loss of ukrainian life. I dont think its going to sort of be such a huge detriment to the performance and for being the one a puzzle. What is the russian a then . Im sure youve heard the comments of our other guests as well as others have said, russia hasnt amassed enough troops to take how to keep in its entirety. Because russia in your reading one to take called keep as a whole simply to spread out those ukrainian lines of mount your practice to probably and then me, why do find we places for the top or 2 and that these and then split these opportunities up to now, be offensive for me on the for region is not major by the number of troops actually involved. There are Russian Reserve has to be fine lines that should be in force. Maybe they will do so maybe not. Maybe this is right here. You pressure will try advancing another place is to seeking out a weak spots in the cranium defenses. You bring in morale because the main russian messages that russia is unbeatable, that the playing in resistance is futile. Of that right there. They may fight, but they cannot basically stop pressure because its bigger. It has more men, more equipment in the marshalls and the to be better for the green that for the west to find some kind of a diplomatic solution that would uh, if not, we utilize the 3. Uh, uh, uh, how do you find the present situation . I may get uh, some of the some kind of may be ceasefire for some people. Just listen to that. And im wondering, do you think the, the russian met freethinking buys into the argument that russia sees a window of opportunity that is closing before major weston supplies kicking. You know, there was such a rush. Im a prime this, the bloggers are writing about that. The pressure has a window of opportunity, you know, its not, theyre not talking about several months, but maybe a couple of years. Why the west, the efforts to increase defense production really begin to pay off maybe in a year, year and a half in when youre up in north america, theyll be getting mass. So were producing on some conventional weapons. And russia will be in the serious situation because mashing bad, is it not an easy task at all sense . Russian. A, a, g, b, b is a 100 times less than b is a sum of the g d b. That will be a ramstein, a ukrainian allies. So this, yes, the brush up find the way to and this from wait in the comedy year a year and a half, because if about brags on red, rushed in as a war of attrition. Russia will be at a very serious disadvantage how to, how much concern is that, that these kinds of operations and advances by Russian Forces could stress in ukrainian supply lines in places like just the v off a. Just so your is and not the small town. And the question is that ukraine says that the bottled base work tried to diversify the logistics because we perfectly understood that the long legs of logistics or the concentration jobs on one or 2 directions will definitely become the ultimate goal of the russian. The text thats just the classics, thats why you see that there are a lot of of the different small legs and very weak the delivery of the supply. Thats why the last months theyve been to many attacks against the Railway System because the railway is definitely quite a well developed and several b railway. Yeah. Ill know the stations being attacked by the russian me files im. That is happening most only around the trusted yard because there is over the easy, its deliberate in terms of necessity was the other means of transportation. But youll also see these attacks in the west time ukraine. They are coming predominantly either against the Energy System or against the Railway System. And the same for odessa, a lot of going to the board because uh that is the idea that the supplies are happening also, or through the boards for these uh, from romania to ukraine by allowed to all of these. So all attacks against logistics, b, b, y, unexpected. And thats why you have as many as possible, the rules and chains of transportation and logistics to the east. I wonder if we take the question now to roger of how will the west react to whats going on. Weve heard statements from some of the west and leaders like that of the united kingdom, the, the font, the secretary talk about how serious the situation and critical a moment it is. Will that translate . Do you think into a change of policy, every conflict, regardless of what it is, has moments of up and down, and right now the premiums are down, but every message that is being sent out now says were going to stick with you printing wireless at a low point and things will get better, you know, just like the packages that cost, for instance, there is no wrong trend, you know, uh, in europe that is going from the, the, the seizure of russian frozen assets, which is super important. But the re bought that was passed. So i dont see any reason to think that just because of this moment happening in the bar, keep that policy makers. Why dont we say we need to force a piece uh on the printer. Most importantly, you have very low members of the european union. The politics pull in the check president peter call farmer, chairman of the nato military committee. This is not going to be a one of decision made by one or 2 states french. And i know my cause been very forthcoming now about, you know, the, the need for ukraine went on this. So again, i am not of the position that just because you, you know, your credit is in the dark right now. That it was that policy makers all of that, and then any time soon i all right, ive always had a, a change of gone so to speak, and the Russian Defense ministry. What does that tell us . Do you think . What can we read into that when it comes to russian minutes we thinking Going Forward . I believe the kremlin says a month. It is kind of revolutionary for rush at this never happened before. For a civilian economist and Economic Advisor administered to be big from defense minister without the united states. There was robert amara to transform the bent again the time also war and just now but not in russia unless it was made. Thats why the crime and also confirms. Ready this is a war of attrition. Im. Its dependent on their economy. Russia is mobilizing, its to come out my defense potential. The west is doing the same, but of course a rush is already up to 7 percent of g d, b defense spending. The wes, this kind of thing and of course in percentage terms, much less, but the west has much more g d, b a 100 times more. So the commer this, it further this, so new defense minister, the blow stuff is going to be a box dishes main task is to mobilize for the Rushing Defense industry immensely. The defense in the industry were after with industry is also an economist.