Press Release – New Zealand Government New research into the probability of an Alpine Fault rupture reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says. Research published by Dr Jamie Howarth of Te Herenga … New research into the probability of an Alpine Fault rupture reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says. Research published by Dr Jamie Howarth of Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington today, shows there is a 75 per cent probability of the Alpine Fault rupturing over the next 50 years, up from around 30 per cent. The research also calculates there is about an 82 percent chance that such an earthquake would be magnitude 8 or higher.