Transcripts For BBCNEWS Afternoon Live 20171102 : vimarsana.

BBCNEWS Afternoon Live November 2, 2017

Seen amongst the best in europe, well discuss their magnificent night in europe and Gareth Southgate is about to name his england squad forfriendlies is about to name his england squad for friendlies with germany and brazil. And some new faces are included. Stav has the weather, it gives a clue as to whats happening this weekend. Its going to turn judy this weekend. Some choice in the forecast but sunday night looking dry. Ill be joining you in the studio later for a full weather forecast. Fake news you wont hear it here but you will see it in the collins dictionary as their word of the year. This afternoon live, im simon mccoy. For the first time in 10 years the bank of england has raised its key base Interest Rate. Its up by a quarter of one per cent to 0. 5 . Its not much but with inflation running above target the bank said it was time to act. And there could be further rises on the way good news for savers, but a prospect that will worry borrowers. Heres andy verity. The bank of england may look exactly as it did the last time Interest Rates rose, but the economy doesnt. In the ten years since the peak year of the housing and credit bubble, the amount we produce and earn has barely grown and that means we are more vulnerable to inflation. There it is, 0. 5 . With unemployment at a 42 year low, inflation running above target and growthjust above its new lower speed limit, the time has come to ease our foot a little off the accelerator. Margy sullivan and her husband live in streatham in south london. Soon after buying their house in 1988 the Interest Rate on the mortgage hit 15 . When rates dropped in the noughties, she took an advantage to repay more than she had to. She is now paying less than 2 and can easily cope with the rate rise. Money has been cheap for a long time and im very aware it could be going up for a long time. Im surprised its taken this long for them to do it. Paying off while it is cheaper means i have less to pay off now. After last hitting a peak before the 2008 crisis, Interest Rates dropped to what was then a record low and stayed there for seven years, only to drop again in the wake of the brexit vote. All they have done is taken back the quarter point cut they made last august after the brexit referendum when they were worried confidence might falter and spending might go down. They have taken their foot off the accelerator in terms of Monetary Policy but not much more than that. That prolonged period of ultralow Interest Rates may have helped keep the economy out of worse trouble but its also have damaging effects, not just on savers. If you keep money ultracheap you encourage people to borrow more to buy assets like houses and that has pushed the prices of houses beyond the reach of many young people who would like to be able to afford their own home. While higher Interest Rates should make it more attractive to hold pounds, traders focused on warnings the next rise would not come soon. About half the countrys families now on their own homes and only a minority of them have the mortgage. The bank of england is confident now inflation hit its peak last month and families will be able to cope with higher Interest Rate. Andy verity, bbc news. Daniel henry is in central london. Simon, the last time Interest Rates went up rhianna was number one. And went up rhianna was number one. And we have the smoking ban introduced july 2007, it gives a picture of where we were as a country. There has been a lot of change since then and today the bank of england, as you say, have risen in the Interest Rates up to 0. 25 from 0. 25 to 0. 5 . Ive got Louise Cooper with me, personalfinance 0. 5 . Ive got Louise Cooper with me, personal finance expert. 0. 5 . Ive got Louise Cooper with me, personalfinance expert. What do you make of this . Can we not get carried away . This isjust a reversal of the emergency rate cut after the referendum. Interest rates are still unbelievably breathtakingly stunningly low. 0. 5 Interest Rate is unbelievably low. During the Exchange Rate mechanism, that crisis, Interest Rates cut to 12,13, that crisis, Interest Rates cut to 12,1114, that crisis, Interest Rates cut to 12,13,14,15 . That crisis, Interest Rates cut to 12, 13, 14, 15 . Historically that crisis, Interest Rates cut to 12,13,14,15 . Historically an Interest Rate of 5 has been normal. 0. 5 is incredibly low and fact, as isaid, 0. 5 is incredibly low and fact, as i said, reverses the rate cut after the referendum. Sounds as though you think there is no chance of this being a trend, no chance of this continuing. The big question is what happens next. Are we on this sustained period where Interest Rates get ratcheted up . Unlikely, 0k . When we look at what the markets are saying, they say we wont get to a 1 Interest Rate until 2020. It will take another three years for Interest Rates to go up just twice more. It gives you a sense of what the market is thinking. Do not freak out, this is very, very, very unlikely to be the start of a sustained period of higher Interest Rates, thats what mark carney said today, one of the reasons why the poundis today, one of the reasons why the pound is trading slightly lower today. So i guess your final take on advice of our viewers, sounds like you suggest there is not much to worry about. Depends on your personal circumstances, for 800 grand mortgage, if your bank or Building Society passes through that whole not. 25 rate hike, 100 grand mortgage is an extra 20 quid a month, not a big deal. The fear, if rates were where they were historically, 5 , it would crush many households in this country. Its more a case of. The same advice as usual. Shop around, look for a Better Mortgage rate deal. If uncertain about finances, fix, it gives you certainty. If you have credit cards, pay them off. If you wa nt credit cards, pay them off. If you want to savings, shop around. The slide good news for savers is they are going to get a tiny bit more. But savers, when inflation is over 396 but savers, when inflation is over 3 and the base rate is. 5 , for savers it still really brutal. For most of them, every year, their money is effectively losing purchasing power, losing money every year. Slightly better for savers but very grim forthem. Year. Slightly better for savers but very grim for them. Weve seen the pound has ta ken very grim for them. Weve seen the pound has taken a dip. Since this announcement. Again, are these things we have to consider . Soap what happens with sterling is when its low it boosts inflation, something the bank of england has to control. If you look at all economic forecasts for next year, ive inflation will peak in the next three or six months and start for next year. Ill frozen in crazy into the mix. Everybody is expecting the uk economy to continue to grow for the next three years, 0k, because nobody predicts a recession. This recovery already is very old, the fifth year of economic recovery even though for many it doesnt feel like it. What happens if we have recession in the next couple of years . Not unlikely. There is probability of this. Rates are only not. 5 . What can mark carney and the bank of england do if we enter recession and rates are already incredibly low . They have no room to move, to cut, that is what we should worry about, not this simple reversal of the rate cut following the referendum. Mark carney has said he believes households in the uk are well placed to deal with this Interest Rate rise. We find out if hes right over the coming months. Joining me now is martin weale, professor of economics at Kings College london and a member of the bank of englands Monetary Policy committee from 2010 to 2016. They voted 7 2, does it surprise you . I suppose i would have been more surprised if there had been a unanimous vote because its not long ago that the committee was voting to keep the Interest Rate unchanged. The question, we had from Louise Cooper, is what happens next. We got a sense this might not be the last Interest Rate rise. But were talking very small amounts in reality. The committee certainly said while i was on it, and said again this time, future increases are likely to be limited and gradual. 0f are likely to be limited and gradual. Of course we dont know what the future is going to bring but this is certainly saying, at least as i understand it, it is the committee saying they dont expect Interest Rates to return to the sort of levels we had before the banking crisis. This has cancelled out the cut after the brexit folk. Absolutely right, though you have to remember the cut wasnt the only thing done after the brexit folk. The committee undertook a new round of asset purchases and were still seeing the stimulus from those. The Monetary Policy committee is the problem of uncertainty over a deal on brexit. I mean this has never happened before, this overshadowing issue of Monetary Policy. How do they deal with that do you think . The minute say they work on an average of possible outcomes, that i am sure is what theyve done. I would make the point even though brexit is a particular form would make the point even though brexit is a particularform of uncertainty, the outlook always seems uncertain. Its quite common for forecasters to say things are particularly uncertain. If you look at the Inflation Report it chose the famous fan chart, they give a good indication of the uncertainty at the bank sees. They are perhaps wiser than they would be in the absence of brexit but have always shown the committee doesnt make any claims to certainty. Wages arent going up, inflation is. Families already struggling, this is going to be a ha rd blow struggling, this is going to be a hard blow when £30 a month makes a difference to your budget. Obviously some people will be affected by it. To be frank, there would be no point in changing the Interest Rate if you didnt expect it to have any impact. Thejob of the didnt expect it to have any impact. The job of the committee is to set Monetary Policy so as to deliver the inflation target set by the government subject to supporting government subject to supporting Government Policies for growth and employment. You dont sense well see a regular rise every couple of months at this stage . |j see a regular rise every couple of months at this stage . I really would like to say, the right thing for the committee to do is to set policy as it sees things at the time it makes the decision. You can let us know what you think, tweet us using the hashtag. All of the ways to contact us on one screen hashtag. All of the ways to contact us on one screen right now. The chief whip Gavin Williamson has been appointed defence secretary, following the resignation of sir Michael Fallon. He stood down last night, saying his conduct had fallen short of the required standards, after allegations of inappropriate sexual behaviour. Sir michael is the first politician to quit following recent claims of Sexual Harassment in parliament. 0ur Political Correspondent iain watson reports from westminster. The man on the right is usually responsible for defending theresa may, especially from critics on her own side. Now Gavin Williamsons job is to defend the nation. Until this morning he was the chief whip, his task to keep tory mps in line and keep the Prime Minister in office. Do you meet the highest standards, mr williamson . The Prime Ministers chief whip was swiftly replaced by this man, his deputyjulian smith. Theresa may wanted to avoid a wide ranging reshuffle but the question now is whether the rapid departure of the previous occupant of the ministry of defence might in turn lead to further resignations. Ive spoken to people today at westminster who are convinced other stories of sir Michael Fallons past behavious could emerge and it was his inability to guarantee there would be no further revelations that seems to have ended his career, but are there other ministers who may have done something in the past that will be judged unacceptable today . And what that put them in the firing line . People need to recognise there is now a very strong set of rules about this kind of behaviour, we shouldnt pass it by and say that is a one off. That has changed. I dont think necessarily you will see lots of ministers resign. The vast majority of people in parliament do not get up to this stuff. The leader of the scottish conservatives sees this as an even more dramatic moment. The dam has broken on this now and these male dominated professions, overwhelmingly male dominated professions, where the boys on locker room culture has prevailed and it has been a bit of a laugh has got to stop. And a former parliamentary whip says changes are needed, not just to protect victims of harassment at westminster but also mps who might be wrongly accused. There needs to be an independent body i think established so people can have confidence in the system. Justice doesntjust have to be done, it needs to be seen to be done and thatjustice includes not only protecting innocent mps but also condemning mps who are guilty. Business as usual, thats the image the Prime Minister wanted to portray when she met her israeli counterpart at lunchtime. The problems may be less dramatic than those in the middle east, but it hasnt made herjob at number ten any easier. Iain watson, bbc news. Vicki young, chief Political Correspondent, is in westminster. A mixed reaction to the announcement of this defence secretary, the baby faced assassin, they call him, we know he owned a tarantula. 0utside westminster most people say, gavin who . It wont make a big difference to most people watching but what it does is show that reshuffles, even the most narrow, always leave people upset. We have benefited from today by getting promotions. Dozens, though, havent had the call. It makes many of them upset. Many doubting Gavin Williamson has the knowledge. Hes never been a minister, never run the department, hes been in a back room role trying to discipline mps. The parliamentary side of things, hasnt run a department, doesnt know anything about defence, some of them openly question whether hes right person for thejob. The fact question whether hes right person for the job. The fact he was chief whip, they are normally much involved in reshuffles. It raised eyebrows with people joking involved in reshuffles. It raised eyebrows with peoplejoking he appointed himself. Ispoke eyebrows with peoplejoking he appointed himself. I spoke to one former cabinet minister who with raised eyebrows said it was quite a surprise. That is the reaction people are getting, reshuffles rarely solve any problems, this was forced on theresa may. Theresa may has defended the appointment, saying mr williamson was not involved in discussions about the reshuffle. Saying he had been a hard working effective chief whip and would make a good defence secretary. The other point is that the role of the whip could never be more important than it is now. There is a minority government, brexit legislation running into trouble. Potentially a sex scandal unfolding. Not an easy task for a new chief whip. Interesting estimate they has been brought in as deputy chief whip. When you look at the list of those in the whips office, its very male dominated at the time theresa may says she wants people to come forward with grievances. Putting estimate the rate in their is trying to change that atmosphere. Is former chief whip he will know where the bodies are buried. 0r true, some jokey already has a Leadership Team in place. I think there was an interesting dynamic in the party. We saw at the conservative party conference. The Younger Generation feel fed up with the old guard and think it is time to remove some of them to move on to fresh faces, who maybe dont have the baggage, who have fresh ideas. That hasnt happened to a huge extent, Gavin Williamson hasnt been an mp for very long. Some feel he could be a potential future leader of the party. That could be some way off. Really the government and theresa may trying to deal with what is going on, preparing themselves for more revelations that might come or might not, no one really knows. Thank you very much. Youre watching afternoon live, here are the headlines this afternoon. The bank of england has raised Interest Rates are the first time in a decade in a bid to curb inflation. Gavin williamson named as new defence secretary following the resignation of sir Michael Fallon. A sharp decline in number of nurses and midwives from the European Union wanting to work in the uk. In sport, Gareth Southgate includes three new

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