Primary School Children are being refused support for Mental Health issues despite a growing need for help. And coming up in sport the open is underway at portrush with rory mcilroy dropping four shots on his first hole. Good morning. Welcome to bbc newsroom live. The uk could be pushed into recession next year if there is a no deal brexit thats according to the countrys fiscal watchdog. The office for budget responsibility, the obr, says that Economic Growth would fall by 2 by the end of 2020 if the uk leaves the eu without an agreement. Chances of a no deal outcome have risen recently, after both tory candidates to be the next Prime Minister said they would be willing to leave the bloc without a deal. Speaking to journalists shortly after the obr published their report, the chancellor Philip Hammond said he feared the impact on the economy of a no deal brexit. The report that the ob r have published this morning shows that evenin published this morning shows that even in the most benign version of eight no deal exit, there would be a very significant hit to the uk economy, a very significant reduction in tax revenues and a big increase in our national debt. A recession caused by a no deal brexit. But that most benign version is not the version that is being talked about by prominent brexiteers. They are talking about a much harder version that would cause more disruption to our economy and the 0b r more disruption to our economy and the ob r is clear that in that a less benign version of no deal, the hit would be much greater, the impact would be much harder and the recession would be bigger. Sol greatly fear the impact on our economy and Public Finances of the kind of no deal brexit that is realistically being discussed now. Lets discuss this further with our economics correspondent, andy verity. This is a fiscal risks report, as it is known, quantifying potential impact on the Public Finances of a no deal brexit. Impact on the Public Finances of a Nodeal Brexit. What is a physical risks report . Fiscal comes from an old latin word meaning a purse. It is all about Public Finances and it what it isnt this is not they office for budget responsibility predicting what is going to happen to the economy in the event of a no deal brexit, this is a scenario wherein a no deal brexit leads to a recession where in the economy shrinks by 2 by the end of 2020. What they are saying about that relatively benign scenario is that in that event, Public Finances would be in trouble evenin Public Finances would be in trouble even in that benign scenario and debt would rise by around £30 billion or 12 by 202a. Whats interesting is the political context for this. For the last decade weve been hearing about the importance of austerity and repairing the deficit. That is the amount by which the government and spends its income. They have been cuts and austerity in order to achieve a smaller gap between our spending and our income. And yet, that has been more or less abandoned. There is a much looser sense of what is important, fiscally, what is important to due to the Public Finances. The two conservative leadership candidates are talking about all sorts of spending promises as well. There are ironies because the conservatives typically accused labour of being extravagant spenders but the candidates have made spending promises, as the ob r says, of tens of billions of pounds extra without really saying where the money is coming from. What is your assessment of these various scenarios this morning, because the ob art was set up by the government to provide independent guidance, yet throughout the Brexit Process depending on which camp youve been in, weve heard people dismiss reports forecast scenarios that have been suggested. There are some entitlement to be sceptical about the official view of what is going to happen. It hasnt been as of the money is the treasury has. Before the referendum, the treasury said the economy would shrink in the event of brexit, never mind no deal, up to 9. 5 . At the beginning of last year, the top dog, tom scholar, admitted the predictions had been premised on scenarios that never took place. For example, they would be no stimulus from lower Interest Rates. The bank of england did lower Interest Rates. The other one was we leave immediately and dont do any negotiations. Those scenarios may have been tailored to the fact the government was campaigning against brexit. Now we know we had a relatively benign time, the risks are things like if tariffs are reimposed or if we had a lot more red tape at the borders or fewer people coming here to work, then we might have less tax coming in. Andy, in the event of some of the scenarios outlined coming to pass, what sort of scope for the government and the bank of england have to mitigate against those . If they are now saying they no longer care about repairing the deficit, there is quite a lot of scope because they can go into a lot of debt and do public spending to mitigate the effect of private spending going down, which does seem to have been happening recently. That is a keynesian method, it spending when no one else will. There is scope for that because Interest Rates are so low so its relatively affordable for the government to take on more debt. Andy, obviously the two candidates, its going to be interesting to see how they respond or if they respond in detail to what is going on but ari expecting any other sorts of forecast scenarios, reports into the possible impact of brexit, whether its a deal or no deal brexit on the economy on Public Finances between now and the 31st of october . We should certainly have other reports, but what i find interesting in the material we had today is not so much the ob are not forecasting or the scenario, more about what they are saying is happening right now. They are saying in the Second Quarter the economy looks like it may have flatlined or shrunk. If we have two quarters of shrinking economy, that is the definition of recession. Economists sometimes say if you have still got growth, it can still feel like recession because you dont have growth creation. In a few months time you dont have growth creation. In a few months time from now, we may be in recession. We dont know. Nobody knows. Thank you, andrew. So thatis nobody knows. Thank you, andrew. So that is what the office for budget responsibility are saying about the impact on Public Finances in the effect of no deal brexit. Meanwhile, the official who led the eus brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier, has himself said the uk would have to face the consequences, as he put it, if it opted to leave with no deal. In a moment well be speaking to gavin lee in brussels but first norman smith our assistant Political Editor is at westminster for us. Norman, between the office for budget responsibility, a lot for politicians and the two leadership candidates to chew over. Michelle barnier seems to have delivered a fairly sharp rebuff to both Leadership Contenders if they think they are going to get a revised brexit deal, with him saying at times, forget about it, the current deal is the best on offer and, by the way, if you are thinking about leaving with no deal, there will be consequences. You will be hit economically, financially. There will be human consequences too. He is not specific but he clearly believes it will be profoundly damaging for britain. In effect, he appears to be calling the bluff of both Boris Johnson and jeremy appears to be calling the bluff of both borisjohnson and jeremy hunt. This is what he said. This document is so important and i recognise it is not so easy to read. 600 pages. Because we have put into this document with the uk, not against the uk, with the uk, the legal answers to each and every point of uncertainty created by brexit. That is the point. That is why this document is the only way to leave the eu in an orderly manner. And if we just left, if we just tore up the membership card . The uk would have to face the consequences. We heard from jeremy hunt this morning, who has hit back at Michel Barnier, saying his approach risks hardening of and attitudes towards the eu and has accused the eu of putting politics before the economics of getting a deal. This is what he had to say. I think the mistake that we have made from the uks side is we thought in the end the europeans would be rational economically and they havent. Theyve thought of brexit as a political issue and they have thought about the political future of europe and that has mattered to them. If we had a no deal brexit, they seem to think at the moment that we would come on our knees, we would come rushing for a deal because of the economic facts of life, but actually no deal for us would also be political. We would have european neighbours that had deliberately chosen to make the uk poorer and that would change and harden British Attitudes to europe for a generation and i dont think thats something wiser heads in europe actually want. That was jeremy hunt. What that wasjeremy hunt. What of that was jeremy hunt. What of team borisjohnson . That was jeremy hunt. What of team Boris Johnson . Im joined that was jeremy hunt. What of team borisjohnson . Im joined by the man running theircampaign, iain borisjohnson . Im joined by the man running their campaign, iain duncan smith. What is your take on the comments . Asl comments . As i understand it, he made the comments before the leadership election actually began, which isnt quite so obviously no so in a sense i dont think he was commenting about what leadership candidates we re about what leadership candidates were saying. I think you are saying what his view was of the deal. He would say that, wouldnt he . He is in the business of hoping that somehow yet his deal through but it is dead. The point as it is not a case of renegotiating. Borisjohnson has made it clear that we are leaving, deal or no deal on the 315t and we are not reopening the deal and we are not reopening the deal and if we have anything at all it is and if we have anything at all it is a free trade arrangement. Boris has been clear on that from the word go. Does that mean it will have to be no deal because Michelle Barnier is saying it is the Withdrawal Agreement and it is the best on offer. The only other option is no deal . It is quite clear, borisjohnson has made it quite clear this is not about the ego, it is not personalities. Michelle barnier is entitled to say what he likes but the point is the deal he talks about died because it was voted down in the commons three times and essentially it is no longer in existence as far as we are concerned. Borisjohnson has made it clear that we are leaving and we will do that on the 315t come what may, as he says. He would like, if the eu wants to do an arrangement, to do every trade arrangement and he has made that clear. Boris yet not gone into negotiations with them. If he is elected, and we dont know what the results will be, he has not yet made any arrangements with them. Asl yet made any arrangements with them. As i say, you would expect Michelle Barnier to say that, he is entitled to say that but he is always going to say that but he is always going to say that but he is always going to say what he said. He is not going to say what he said. He is not going to say, great news, im going to do a deal. That would be a bad negotiating stance. What about eu leaders thinking that britain is bluffing when it comes to ano britain is bluffing when it comes to a no deal . They say, you havent put in place the preparations, theresa may didnt even mention it and we are not serious. Of all the things that have come out of these injuries, the posturing around the deal is not the issue. Boris has been clear that if he is elected prime in a state he will be leaving on the 315t come what may. It is not what they are saying about the deal but is opening up to say that they knew from the word go we hadnt completed our planning and we hadnt completed our planning and we ha d sta lle d hadnt completed our planning and we had stalled on it, which i think is an indictment of the chancellor and others. It meant we had no negotiating position at all. As far as they were concerned, the Prime Minister never once that we are able to leave without a deal. So it was of the table pretty much from the start. Borisjohnson has said that we cant possibly talk to them as a partner if they have no knowledge of the bottom line and the answer is, we need to make preparations. Boris says it will be accelerated and we will be ready to leave by the 315t. Michelle barnier but clearly believes that there will be consequences, financial consequences, financial consequences, economic consequences and human consequences if we choose to leave without an agreement. Again, i dont mind what Michelle Barnier says about consequences. There are always consequences to every action you take. I dont believe he is right. Borisjohnson has said time and time again we are open to an arrangement but not the deal they have got on the table. We wa nt deal they have got on the table. We want a deal they have got on the table. We wanta superfight deal they have got on the table. We want a super fight process around free trade. His set it on television and platforms. These comments were made by Michel Barnier before Boris Johnson and actually entered the race and made his position clear so its up to them how they behave but you know, if they want to avoid their consequences, they will need to do an arrangement with us but otherwise we will be ready to go, the public has said leave by the 315t and Boris Johnson the public has said leave by the 315t and borisjohnson is the public has said leave by the 315t and Boris Johnson is the the public has said leave by the 315t and borisjohnson is the only one to have said we will leave come what may by the 315t. Then we can ta ke what may by the 315t. Then we can take on Jeremy Corbyn and the Marxist Labour Party. However, mrjohnson has also said he believes no deal would be vanishingly inexpensive. We heard from the ob r today it would plunge britain into recession, we hearfrom the chancellor that it would be even worse than that. Sorry if im laughing because every timel sorry if im laughing because every time i hear the chancellor enter the fray on this one, ijust wonder whether he could be more miserable about anything and he has now managed to be even more miserable than he was before, which is pretty deep misery. I dont pay any attention at all because these are cooked up forecasts at the end of the day. You take the extremes at the day. You take the extremes at the bottom end of the forecast and derail about that. The truth is all of the forecasts, no matter what the pessimistic once say, the economy continues to grow. They think it might grow less than it would have done but that is a speculative point. Borisjohnson has been clear the british people have made a democratic decision to leave on the 315t with or without a deal. He is the only one that will deliver that and that is why i back him and support him and the british people will recognise that at last, i hope, if he gets elected, a parameter that will by his word. Isnt the truth that you are ignoring the likes of the office for budget responsibility, which is a an independent body and doesnt have an axe to grind. It is working on what some viewers will consider a benign no deal scenario, which the economy will shrink by 2 . We will see. Many forecasts have been completely wrong over the last few years, in fact i think every hmmfi few years, in fact i think every fore ca st by few years, in fact i think every forecast by anybody, including the International Monetary fund right the way through to the office for budget responsibility and everyone else has been quite wrong. In fact in some cases the budget forecast didnt last six months after the budget. Take it with a pinch of salt. What trumps Everything Else is the british people voted to leave by the british people voted to leave by the 315t of october, come what may. We we re the 315t of october, come what may. We were meant to leave in march. Borisjohnson has made it clear that oui borisjohnson has made it clear that our numberonejob as borisjohnson has made it clear that our number one job as politicians is to deliver what the public said. He has a simple principle, leave by the 315t of october. We need to bring the public back together and unite them and take on the biggest threat them and take on the biggest threat the Marxist Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn. A robust response from jeremy hunt and team johnson. Thanks norman smith at westminster. So what about the verdict in brussels gavin lee is there. Is the eu position, i suppose the big question is is the eu position as fixed as Michel Barnier suggests it is because we have the two conservative leadership candidates and they have been saying throughout theircampaigns, and they have been saying throughout their campaigns, vote for me because iam the their campaigns, vote for me because i am the person with the key to unlocking all of this. Michelle barnier saying the uk will face the consequences. We have heard this before in brussels. Other eu diplomats, the french ministers have used it, german ministers. This is something that is a rhetoric which from an eu point of view i am told they say we are not calling the uks bluff. This is something that the uk has said. No deal cannot