I monitor on a daily basis seems to have made the slightest preparation for the possibility that donald trump might very well be back in office in 16 months� time. Do me a favour. Just get your union guys, your leaders, to endorse me. Cheering. Other, that is, than to pray it doesnt happen. The odds are still probably slightly against a trump victory, but it would create a massive upheaval, not least in russias war against ukraine. Only three months ago in that war, Vladimir Putin seemed to be on the ropes as a result of the mutiny by his most effective ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin. But now. Theres lots of distrust and also fear from people who are close enough to mr putin that something that happened to prigozhin could happen to them if they disappoint the big boss. 70 years after women got the vote in mexico, the two main candidates at next years election will, as things stand, both be women. What effect will that have on a country so traditionally macho . Theres been a real push to make sure that there is representation from women within politics at all levels. So that is something of a dramatic change. And africa after the years of hope, is it time to despairagain . You have a generation of young men, young women, very frustrated, frustrated with the lack of democracy, frustrated with the growing unemployment. Fatally damaged. That was the kind of expression a lot of western commentators and russia experts were using about Vladimir Putins Leadership Back injune, when the violent, unpredictable warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin staged his apparent coup attempt and his men headed up the road to moscow. It was wishful thinking. Prigozhin� s plane mysteriously crashed last month and no one seems to be challenging putin any more. For now, anyway. So how stable is his position Post Prigozhin . I asked famil ismailov, news editor of bbc russian. On the surface what we see, President Putin has become even stronger. People sort of still support him. He appears here and there, shaking hands and being at very close proximity, which wasnt expected from him since the days of pandemic, of covid pandemic. And secondly, we could see him quite active in trying to shore up russias reputation with, especially with china, with turkey, being quite active in trying to push russias agenda abroad, but at the same time inside the country. So on the surface, we see that no damage has been done to his reputation. But how do we know it . Theres no Public Opinion polls that we could trust. Theres not much that could give us any signs of if the elite is supporting mr putin as much as it used to before the prigozhin affair. And we can only guess that theres lots of distrust and also fear from people who are close enough to mr putin that something that happened to prigozhin could happen to them if they disappoint the big boss. We can say that his power is intact. At the moment. At the moment, at least for now. What would threaten that . The only thing that could threaten that would be if we could see combined effort by the russian elite that holds key to the main income of the main russian financial flows inside russia and within russia, like from sales of oil, gas and lots of other incoming assets, money. And also if those people from elite will have enough support within Security Apparatus in order to provide any possible opposition or any possible threat to putins power. At the moment, the Security Apparatus is totally behind mr putin, and the elite are extremely scared. Prigozhin was a person who was very close to mr putin, was trusted by mr putin, and All Of A Sudden the man who was such a close friend, who could just call him directly, dies in such a spectacular way. I do understand why russian elite is so nervous. Some people have been saying that if ukraine manages to capture the whole of, or part of, crimea, putin couldnt survive that. What do you think . It sort of doesnt ring true to me. Ill explain why. Of course, crimea is a big, it was at least in 2014, a big pet project for mr putin, but so were lots of other things. Taking over ukraine in seven days was probably also a pet project. It didnt work and theres nothing wrong with that. As we can see, putins still there and the army is still battling almost two years on and putin is still there. So i dont think that the loss of even the whole lot of the lands and crimea included would do anything to putins reputation. He will find a way to explain whats going on. Thats one thing. The other thing is, it is, i dont think they see it that way. They dont think that there is ever a Strong Enough ukraine with Strong Enough weapons to withstand a pressure from a nuclear power. Hes miscalculated the whole ukrainian affair. So my thinking is maybe this miscalculation continues further. Time passes by, the west gets tired of supporting ukraine, and russia, which is way bigger than ukraine in terms of manpower, in terms of production power, military production power, will continue churning out people who will die on the front line and continue churning out missiles raining on ukraine when everybody will get tired and say, ok, lets stop and start negotiate. And he will present that as a victory. I think his vision is something along the lines of this. Can i turn to another conflict which has flared up again, the one between armenia and azerbaijan, over Nagorno Karabakh . How does that relate to the ukrainian war or doesnt it . Theres a direct link between ukrainian war and with what happened in Nagorno Karabakh. If there wasnt a ukraine war, azerbaijan would probably think twice before launching another operation. So at the moment, we have about 2,000 Russian Military in Nagorno Karabakh with peacekeeping mission. They obviously dont have air support. They basically are lightly equipped because its a peacekeeping force, its there to keep peace and order and not conduct defensive or offensive operations. Turkey militarily supported azerbaijan from the very beginning in 2020 war, which lasted 44 days and now which was basically a one day operation. And armenians didnt have that support from russia. Russia was quiet in 2020 and was even quieter in 2023. The main thing is that russia is very much tied up in ukraine. When russian army failed so much on ukrainian front line and russias military prowess, reputation has suffered as a result, so the governments in all those former soviet countries, they look at russia with a bit of fear, but dont find russia as threatening as it used to be before. Mexico is one of those Latin American countries which has traditionally seemed to embody the notion of patriarchy. It was only in 1953 that women got the vote there, and even at the turn of this century, the Mexican Senate was 80 male. Suddenly, all thats changed. A majority of mexican senators are now women. And as things stand, both the main candidates for the president ial election next year will be women. How important is this transformation for mexico . Katy watson, the bbc south america correspondent. I think the fact that there are two women, one of whom is expected to win the elections, is a massive deal. Certainly its been talked about all the way down here in sao paulo. Mexico is a country that is traditionally known for being very macho. The fact that two women will be facing each other in next years elections is clearly a huge step in this region, in mexico, but in the region as a whole. But do you see any signs of a change in Mexican Society that kind of parallels this political change . Well, i think there are two sides of it. I mean, theres no question political participation in mexico has really, has seen Huge Movement in the last couple of years. I mean, parity is enshrined in their constitution. Theres been a real push to make sure that there is representation from women within politics at all levels. So that is something of a dramatic change in the world. I mean, its a leader in that sense. At the same time, it is still a deeply macho country. Its a very violent country. I mean, you look at issues such as femicide, you know, the killing of women. And that has soared in recent years. Amlo, the current president , he has tried to tackle that and he has failed. Its almost as if the problems with mexico are bigger than who becomes president. So the fact that there is this change is a very welcome change. The fact that it will be a different leadership, expected in 2024, again, is welcome. But there are massive issues to tackle within mexico. And is that something that a person can do in six years . Remember, in mexico, theres no such thing as re election. Theres a six year presidency and that is it. So they only have a finite amount of time in which they can actually push through change and make meaningful change on the ground. Because i think thats the issue, is that these two women have shown that you can get to the top and you can be equal when it comes to politics. But when it comes to the average mexican, i think the reality is very different. And what would be the different stance between the two women on, for instance, the major issue of the cartels violence, the drug cartels . Claudia sheinba, shes a former mayor of mexico city. Shes an ally of the current president. Hes really, really backed her and she looks like shes the front runner for now. Xochitl galvez, she comes from an indigenous background. Shes a tech entrepreneur, shes also a politician. You know, these two women are highly educated, highly experienced, both seen as social progressives, although ones from the left, ones from the right. They both believe in the decriminalisation of abortion. How theyre going to tackle the issue of drug cartels . I mean, that, its almost its bigger than mexico. I mean, its a world wide issue. Yes, the cartels are in mexico, you know, colombia in this part of the world. But this is a Worldwide Industry that probably takes more than having a president for six years to be able to tackle it. I mean, you could argue even theyre kind of parallel governments. I mean, theyre incredibly powerful groups. And many of the groups also have very powerful women within those groups, too. But no doubt that will be an issue that will be rumbling along and arguably probably almost impossible to change. Externally, mexicos reputation as a country has really taken a leap forward, certainly in the western world, with the decriminalisation of abortion and now the issue of the likelihood that there will be a woman president next. What is the sort of understanding of mexicos standing in the World Outside . So ive covered this region for a decade in mexico and here, and i think in the last decade, i think youve seen huge amounts of change. So, yes, mexico has huge problems with lawlessness, rule of law, i would argue, probably more than here in sao paulo. But when it comes to, like, the feminist movement, we have seen a massive change. Its called the green wave movement. Argentina has really led the way with the legalisation of abortion, mexico weve seen just a few weeks ago, the topic was started being debated here in brazil. This region has always felt the presence of the us, but what were seeing, especially when it comes to abortion, you know, the rights are being rowed back in the us. Here, there are big steps moving forward and you know, across the region theres been liberalisation of abortion rights. Now, that of course, it has to be said, it had hugely strict rights. I mean, if you look at el salvador in central america, abortion is illegal under any circumstance. Women are imprisoned for miscarriages because people, you know, theyve been accused of abortion, aborting their baby. And i think, you know, theres still so much to be done. But if youre talking about the last decade or so, certainly since ive been covering it, i think thereve been huge steps. Is there any grounds that you feel, Knowing Mexico so well, to be optimistic about it . Yeah, sure. I mean, any change is welcome change. And i think that, you know, the more that theres that parity and that dialogue and that both men and women are represented, and, you know, what harm does it do to have that change and have to have somebody else in power from the status quo . And also what does it teach, for example, the us . Because of course its biggest Trading Partner has yet to have a female president. So it shows again that, you know, theres a lot to be seen, a lot to be taught from other parts, especially here in latin america. 20 years ago, the future prosperity of the continent of africa seemed fairly assured. South africa had come through the dangerous Transition Triumphantly from apartheid to majority rule. There were more democracies and fewer dictatorships in the continent, and the us president , George W Bush had launched his perhaps slightly unlikely campaign to Fund Economic growth in africa. And then things started to go wrong. Under president jacob zuma, south africa became a kleptocracy, with billions siphoned off to private Bank Accounts in the middle east. Loud explosions. After a brief respite, wars broke out again. Soldiers staged what often looked like frivolous coups, even in niger, one of the more hopeful examples of democracy. And russian soldiers began to appear in several parts of Francophone Africa. Whats extraordinary is quite how brazen it is. Andrew harding, whos been the bbc� s long serving Africa Correspondent throughout this entire process, has finally moved on. I took the opportunity of sitting him down to listen to his thoughts and experiences of covering the last 19 years in the continent. The big picture stuff is quite worrying, i would say. I mean, weve been through a decade where everyone� s been looking very actively for good news from africa, and theres been the whole africa rising narrative, theres been the resource boom, china driven, all that export, all that money. And yet it now feels to me like a lot of that has been wasted and that the democratic gains that we saw bubbling up all over the place are not really bedding in that well in a lot of countries, were seeing rollback. Were seeing a kind of c minus kind of level democracy taking hold. I think thats a cause for concern. Youve got this big demographic bubble, this youth bubble in africa, which for a long time has been, understandably, maybe justifiably, seen as a positive. You look at ethiopia, somewhere thats trying to kind of ride to economic success on the back of that youth bubble. And the fear now is that that demographic benefit is being wasted and that it could become, its already becoming in some places, a real threat, a real challenge, because you have a generation of young men, young women, well educated in some cases, but very frustrated, frustrated with the lack of democracy, frustrated with the growing unemployment. And you see that particularly in the sahel region, and thats whats driving all these people to seek to cross the mediterranean, to get to europe, to find prosperity. Right across, particularly the former French Empire in africa, were seeing all of these Military Coups. Its just like back in the � 70s. There are a lot of different factors at work. And you see places like sudan as well, which has just had a Military Coup as well, and which is in a sense the biggest crisis in africa right now. The sheer complexity of it now, so many different players trying to have a role, i dont think is good for africa. I dont think its helping anyone. Im not saying people are yearning for a return to simpler times, but right now in the Central African republic, the russians have taken over there. Theyre pretty much holding the country hostage. Nothing to do with the french there, really, any more. And its astonishing the extent and the ease with which ambitious, unprincipled often, new powers in africa, external powers like russia, are managing to get real leverage on the ground. And yes, Francophone Africa right now, weve seen it in chad, weve seen it now in niger and the latest news, of course, is that macron has sort of succumbed to what i think many people thought was inevitable and has announced that hes pulling french troops out of what had been their key base in this region. But what i would also say is that, that i dont think its lost, in the sense france has lost africa. I think its in play and i think well see the extent to which these coups are very much elite operations. They are the work of a tiny group of military men who are using the anti colonial rhetoric and are being given russian flags, presumably by the kremlin, to wave. The russians may have played this weak hand very successfully, and they may currently be doing well in mali, in niger, in burkina faso, elsewhere. But i dont think that means theyre necessarily there to stay because the regimes theyre propping up are very weak, very fragile, and they are not going to satisfy the demands forjobs, for security, for Economic Growth that the populations there want. You dont think that if, say, donald trump comes to power in the us, that the west in general will turn its back on african countries . The problem with that argument is from an african perspective, i think people would say, well, look, it was actually george bush and his pepfar programme that pumped billions into fighting aids, Into Fighting Tb in africa. He was the last American Administration that really made a difference. There are a lot of American Companies trying to do business in the continent, but they are being eclipsed on a massive scale by the chinese. The chinese are there on the ground. Chinese diplomacy, chinese businessmen, small and large, are everywhere