Transcripts For BBCNEWS Unspun 20240703 : vimarsana.com

BBCNEWS Unspun July 3, 2024

Well have to wait until the effects of Climate Change become really tangible before the world recognises that it needs to take action. I think weve got to that point. Even back at the start of this year, the problem that weighed most heavily on ukraines president zelensky was will his western allies stay the course . I remember how frank he was about the need for ukraines counteroffensive to go well. Well, it certainly hasnt gone badly but its never produced the major victory that ukraine needed and that its supporters prayed for. Explosion now, hungary is deeply sceptical about backing ukraine. An openly pro russian politician has just topped the poll in the elections in slovakia. The polish government, with an election coming up, has chosen to criticise ukraine. And most serious of all, the political infighting in washington means that its hugely valuable aid to ukraine cant be funded as before at least for the time being. So, what does all this add up to . Well, Vladimir Putins sharp minded, sharp tongued press spokesman, dmitry peskov, is pretty clear in his own mind. In moscow the other day, speaking of western support for ukraine, he said the fatigue will grow. Have we reached some kind of Tipping Point . I sought the views of the bbc� s europe editor, katya adler. First of all, slovakia held parliamentary elections this weekend and who got the biggest number of votes . Robert fico. Whats he known as . A defender of Vladimir Putin. What did he campaign saying . That military aid for ukraine should be stopped. At the same time, you had a big row in congress over a short term funding government funding bill. Its bipartisan. And the only way it could get passed was by dropping this next tranche of aid for ukraine, which was being discussed. That is a worrying sign from washington. Weve got us elections coming up next year and there is a very real possibility that donald trump could be returned to office as president. And what will that mean for support for ukraine . Up until now, the us has donated the largest amount in terms of military aid for ukraine, but europe is surpassing that in terms of Financial Support and other support. So, is it going to have to fill a shortfall in the us at a time when we know that populations in europe, theyre worried about the cost of living, were heading into a winter where people are worrying about Heating Bills again, theres talk of migration and things that need to be done about that. That is putting pressure on governments, its putting pressure on european unity as a whole. And so, yes, looking forward to ukraine, there are Question Marks with ukraine not having performed as speedily against russia as had been hoped in the west and its counteroffensive, whether that was realistic or not, about how long this is all sustainable. How important is, say, slovakia in this . Does it matter if they dont help ukraine any longer . A lot of this is politics. So, weve heard certain things being said in the lead up to slovakias elections. Weve heard things being said in poland in the lead up to its election in two weeks� time. And up until now, poland has been pretty much the most outspoken and active country in ukraines support against russia. However, what we can see the possibility of in the eu is a build up of an awkward squad, because who clapped their hands when robert fico came top of the parliamentary elections . In neighbouring hungary, Prime Minister viktor orban. Prime minister viktor orban, who has been permanently difficult when its come to imposing new sanctions. Were also looking, of course, ukraine is very anxious to be given very strong signals now about joining the eu. Its been given candidacy statement, but what it wants by the end of this year is for real negotiations to start on that path to membership. And lets look at poland whats polands position . So, poland holds a general election in mid october on sunday, 15th of october. And theres been this extraordinary row in the recent couple of weeks between poland and ukraine. And i say extraordinary because even before russias full scale invasion, poland was up there imean, Prime Minister morawiecki saying again and again to partners inside the European Union and nato, watch out because putin has expansionist plans here. Hes got his eye on ukraine and more, by the way. And he and the baltic states, they had the feeling they were being dismissed, really, as sort of being post soviet paranoid. No longer, of course. And poland has been key in putting pressure on other allies inside nato about supplying fighter jets, for example, tanks. I mean, really leaning on germany at the time when you remember that germany was reluctant to provide any tanks. When you look at it, the two main parties here vying to win these elections, both of them want to push russia back. Both of them believe that if russia is not stopped in ukraine, then Vladimir Putin will not stop there. And that will be destabilising not just for that neighbourhood in europe, but for europe as a whole. However, there has been a row over grain. Now as we know, thats because of russias actions in the black sea ukraine has been unable to send its grain that large parts of africa and the middle east rely on across the sea. And so, there was an agreement reached by which the grain was able to cross European Countries on its way out to the wider world. Just because of logistics, a lot of that grain ended up sort of sticking, hanging, in countries like poland, hungary or slovakia, and that has pushed down local grain prices. And that is a big problem in countries that rely on agriculture. So, the eu agreed that those countries could have a ban on that grain for a limited period but recently, it lifted that ban. And poland, hungary and slovakia have said, you know what . Were just going to continue regardless. President zelensky was characteristically critical, even though he didnt name poland, and poland reacted furiously, absolutely furiously, even suggesting the government, even suggesting that it would halt military aid to ukraine. But again, these are worrying signs. These are worrying signs inside europe although i have to emphasise again, john, that we have to be careful about being too black and white about it. Its not a knife edge but it is concerning. Less than three years ago, the vast, landlocked state of niger, mostly desert, predominantly muslim and with a population of 25 million, seemed in pretty good shape politically. Despite a history of five coups detat in 60 years, its president stepped down constitutionally after finishing his second term and Mohamed Bazoum was elected to succeed him in february 2021. But three months ago, bazoum was arrested by his president ial guard and a new crisis began. Since the military transition in this country, friday prayers. The bbc� s Mayenijones Hasjust come back from meeting nigers new rulers. I think the reason why niger was seen as a beacon of democracy is because the region isnt great. The sahel region at the moment is suffering from a democratic deficit. Youve seen coups in burkina faso, in mali, which are both neighbouring countries, slightly further afar in chad and also in guinea. So niger, in comparison to those other countries, seemed fairly democratic. They had elections last year that went pretty well. President mohamed deposed now, deposed president Mohamed Bazoum was a friend of the west, particularly of france. He worked closely with them. He was seen as somebody who was willing to take input from foreign powers, as somebody who was willing to collaborate in order to develop his country. But this is a country, niger, that has seen a lot of coups since its independence of france. Its had multiple coup attempts, five successful ones. And so, it was interesting, speaking to people in niger, because Military Takeovers arent foreign to them. And a lot of people told us, actually, we have a long history of Military Takeovers. We trust our military. Usually, what they come in and do is, if theres a political crisis, they come in, they clean things up and they leave. And so, a lot of people we interviewed in niger seemed to believe that this latest Military Government would do the same thing. How responsible was french Ham Fistedness for the coup and for the atmosphere that exists in niger now . Or did the french were they on a hiding to nothing . Could they have done nothing different . This coup, just to give a bit of context, was initially just an internal dispute between members of the president ial guard and president bazoum. They werent happy with some of the decisions he was taking, particularly when it came to funding and budgets. And so, they staged this uprising. But it became a bigger thing about sovereignty for niger and anti french sentiment when france then took a stance that it wouldnt deal with this new Military Government. Many nigerians were like, well, wait a minute. You know, president macron went to ndjamena, the capital of chad, when they had a Military Coup and embraced their new military leader. Recently, there was a coup in gabon that france condemned, but seemed to kind of have a less strong diplomatic rhetoric towards. Thats when you started seeing the big protests, the French Embassy being targeted and french troops being asked to leave. And does that principle apply to other countries in the region . I mean, other countries perhaps that have had Military Coups. The factors that start those coups in each country is incredibly different. In burkina faso, you had these young soldiers who are the forefront of the war against the terrorists, Terror Groups affiliated with the so called Islamic State and alqaeda. They were the forefront of the battle. When they came into power, they said they were frustrated with the way that the government at the time in burkina faso was handling the countrys Security Crisis and they wanted to change things around. In mali, there were separatists that were fighting the governments that wanted independence for their regions, and that led to an escalation in violence in niger. And that led to an escalation in violence. In niger, it was, as i mentioned, an internal dispute between the president ial guard and the president. In gabon, its because youve had this family, the bongos, theyve held the country, you know, in financial hostage for several decades now. And many people there in gabon feel that this family has been allowed to continue to stay in power because it benefits certain external powers. One thing that ends up happening after all of them is that all of those frustrations and the corruption and the ineffectiveness of the governments there, the poor Economic Performance of those countries, all of that gets funnelled towards france. What will be interesting to see is now that the french are leaving a country like niger, for example, whats going to happen . Thejunta in power is going to have to show that it has a plan for the countrys development. This is one of the poorest countries in the world, despite having Minerals Like uranium, despite having oil, despite having gold. Is it going to make it easier for extreme islamists to operate . Were already seeing recently an escalation, an uptick in violence, with Terror Groups taking advantage of the power vacuum in niger to ramp up its attack on Nigerian Armed forces and drive down morale there. And it will be interesting to see over the next month, is the Nigerian Army able to turn the tide and show that its in charge . Because i think if it doesnt, if there are more civilian casualties, then ordinary nigerians will start to wonder if this was the right decision in backing them. One of the worlds most complicated crises seems to have been sorted out the hard way, at least for now. Nagorno karabakh is one of those problematic territories left over after the collapse of the soviet union in 1991. A patch of land in the south caucasus, situated in azerbaijan but occupied mostly by Ethnic Armenians. Last month, azerbaijan launched an attack on the territory and as a result, just about the whole armenian population, more than 100,000 people, has left. Kian sharifi of Bbc Monitoring is based in the region. I asked him to explain how azerbaijans president aliyev had succeeded in getting control of nagorno karabakh. Aliyev got exactly what he wanted. He completed his seizure of karabakh, and karabakh, the authorities there. They said they were dissolving the government and every government linked institute by the end of the year. And thats pretty much the end of Nagorno Karabakhs government as we know it. Do you think that he also wanted the entire population to move out . He has always maintained that the Ethnic Armenians that lived in karabakh could stay there for as long as they wanted, they would be treated equally. But they didnt believe him. And for good cause, i mean, given their history with azerbaijan, it was very difficult for them to believe it. So the moment that they realised its over, they started fleeing their homeland. And now more than 100,000 Ethnic Armenians from karabakh have moved to armenia, and they want refugee status, which means if they are granted a refugee status, they need to be paid by the government. That is not something the pashinyan government is capable of doing. He cannot do that because he just doesnt have the funds, the money. And this, some fear, is going to embolden the pro russia parties in armenia. Right now its not looking very, very good for pashinyan. Did russia have any involvement in this or did azerbaijan just do it while the russians werent looking or what . Russia didnt seem to be providing armenia with the support that armenia thought it was going to get from russia. And this time around, russia has beenjust a bit too busy with the war in ukraine. Armenia doesnt really have anything to fight back. And armenia itself didnt really get involved with this last round of fighting. It stayed out of it, which angered a lot of people in armenia, there were protests for a good while against pashinyan� s government, because they accused them of not helping Ethnic Armenians in karabakh. The other major power in the region with an interest there is iran. Whats irans view of whats happened . Iran has been having to play a very delicate balancing act. Since the very beginning it has always maintained that karabakh belonged to azerbaijan. But it never, ever could support azerbaijan because theyve always had a lot of differences. There is a very strong ethnic Azeri Community in iran that wants to be a part of azerbaijan. They refer to it as southern azerbaijan. Thats how much they want to secede from iran. And iran has always believed that azerbaijan, or at least elements linked to the government of azerbaijan, have helped to stoke that sentiment. Then there is, of course, azerbaijans very close relations with israel. Its, to the best of my knowledge, the only muslim nation that is very, very open with its relationship with israel, and its a very strong relationship. Irans accused azerbaijan of even allowing israel to maintain a presence in azerbaijan, which borders iran. And iran just does not like that. Iran has always been close with armenia, but think of the optics. Iran backing a christian state against a muslim country. Now, the major issue, of course, is the zangezur corridor. It was first brought up in 2020. Armenia agreed to allow the establishment of a corridor along its border with iran. Iran has always been opposed to this because as far as tehran is concerned, if that corridor is established, it will completely sever its very short land link with armenia. And that is a very strategic corridorfor iran because its a very reliable route connecting iran through armenia to georgia and beyond. Beyond being potentially, of course, russia. Azerbaijan insists on wanting to establish that corridor because it will connect mainland azerbaijan to the Exclave Of Nakhchivan and through that to turkey. The entire issue of nagorno karabakh, do you think its over now . The idea of karabakh is always going to be in the background of relations between armenia and azerbaijan. Its never going to go away. It may have an effect on future relationships between the countries in the region, but karabakh, as we know it, is probably not going to be a thorn in anyone� s side because the government there will cease to exist in three months. Lastjuly was the hottest month our planet has experienced in recorded history. Fires raged on three continents. People fled their homes in hundreds of thousands, some of them swelling the numbers of migrants into europe and north america. But how are governments around the world shaping up to meet this threat of accelerating Global Warming . I asked justin rowlatt, the bbc� s climate editor. You see different societies making different kinds of decisions. So you see particular, i mean, the exemplar of this would be china making kind of long Term Investments with a kind of 100 year plan, maybe even a longer plan, looking ahead and saying, what do we need for our future . What future do we want for our society . Democracy is frankly finding it much harder to do that long term planning and stick to decisions that have been made. Its very interesting here in britain, you know, there was a Climate Act Passed in 2008 and the idea was to bind future governments to commitments made kind of now about how were going to cut carbon. Were still sticking to those targets. But it was quite interesting

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