Place on ajuly. Today, Party Leaders have hit the Campaign Trail, delivering their message to voters across the uk as the countdown to polling day begins. The Prime Minister rishi sunak said only the conservatives can offer security and economic stability, while The Labour Leader sir keir starmer promised an end to what he called 14 years of decline and chaos under the tories. And he promised to rebuild the country. Well be live on the Campaign Trail in a moment or two, will talk to the people political 30s as well. Meanwhile, nigel farage said he wont be standing for reform uk lets get more from our Political Correspondent damian grammaticas. Back to speak to where we are with the polling in the past two weeks. The most recent poll during the month of may, we are looking at labour on 44 , 21 points ahead of the conservatives on 23 , so very substantial lead. This is the biggest lead that weve had at the beginning of our election sincejohn major went to the country back in 1997. The reform party are narrowly running in third place in terms of votes with 11 across britain as a whole. Liberal democrats narrowly behind on seven and the greens, not to be ignored at 6 . Of course politics in scotland is distinctive and different, with the strength of the smp they are historically, the labour party there are no running five points ahead of the snp in the polls, this is the biggest lead theyve had over the smp any time since the 2014 independence referendum. Since the 2014 independence referendum. ,. , referendum. Will be live in scotland in ust a referendum. Will be live in scotland in just a moment referendum. Will be live in scotland in just a moment moment referendum. Will be live in scotland in just a moment moment or referendum. Will be live in scotland in just a moment moment or two, l injust a moment moment or two, but let me pick up on the thought you started with, remind me, you will have a rolodex in your mind, can you remember a sitting Prime Minister thats gone into an election or called an election, 20 plus points trailing in the polls . Flat called an election, 20 plus points trailing in the polls . Trailing in the polls . Not as a matter of trailing in the polls . Not as a matter of choice. Trailing in the polls . Not as a matter of choice. When trailing in the polls . Not as a matter of choice. When john | trailing in the polls . Not as a matter of choice. When john major matter of choice. Whenjohn major did it in 1997, admittedly he did hold the election in the end a few weeks earlier then was strictly speaking necessary by law, he decided to hold it on his birthday in april rather than waiting until may. But for a Prime Minister to opt to go to the country up to six months early when 21 points behind in the Opinion Polls is frankly unprecedented. Thereve been occasions in the past where governments have gone to the country because frankly, they think they having trouble governing and they want to try to see if they can improve their position. Labour, in 1951, went to the country. It wasnt clear if they were in a position to win the election, but this does strike one as a very brave or an extremely foolhardy decision. Im extremely foolhardy decision. Im auoin to extremely foolhardy decision. Im going to get out onto the Campaign Trail, ill ask you one more question. Ill come back to you and later in the half hour. Everyone watching in terms of the voters, they want to know about issues. In terms of the polling on that, what are the top five issues that voters to talk about . Are the top five issues that voters to talk about . ~ ,. , to talk about . Welcome of the things that voters say to talk about . Welcome of the things that voters say they to talk about . Welcome of the things that voters say they want to talk about . Welcome of the things that voters say they want to to talk about . Welcome of the things that voters say they want to talk that voters say they want to talk about the economy, National Health service, housing to some degree, immigration, those are the highly important subjects, but its not necessarily the ones however that are most likely to determine which way Voters Decide to go. 0ut are most likely to determine which way Voters Decide to go. Out of those, i would say the evidence is that its the economy and the National Health service that have been predominant in the things that have. When we are looking to see, one of the things that seem to push people either to the conservatives or away from the conservatives, those of the two issues that matter. Against the backdrop of all this, of course, we also should never forget whats also in voters minds is the experience of the fiscal event in october 2022, thats a crucial part of the memory is about economics and the government � s handling of that, and equally we should not forget the influence of party gate, that is still in the back of voters memories, some of which are quite long. Memories, some of which are quite lonu. Memories, some of which are quite lon. , memories, some of which are quite lon. , , memories, some of which are quite loni. , , long. That is interesting given the messa i es long. That is interesting given the messages weve long. That is interesting given the messages weve already long. That is interesting given the messages weve already heard, i messages weve already heard, especially from the conservative party, ill come back to you a little later, thank you so much for those thoughts at the start of this hour. I want to get on to the Campaign Trail though. We arejust outside we are just outside inverness, rishi sunak� s third big visit of the day. He was in derbyshire first thing this morning and he went to wales, now hes in scotland when hes going to meet at a port shortly. Why is he doing all this, why is it such a massive hive of activity in the first place . The answer is simple, he is try to get on the front foot, he knows that he is not the favourite to win the general election, remain in number ten so he wants to get out early and achieve the narrative. That this is a done deal. But one of the things ive covered a few general elections with the bbc, one of the things you always notice on general Election Campaigns is news has a habit of getting in the way. Theres a couple of things today that i think are a bit awkward for the Prime Minister. Firstly, Net Migration figures we got through the home office, the figures that show the number of people coming into the uk over the number of people leaving. Theyve gone down a bit from last year, but they are still huge, still well over 650,000, a lot higher than the conservatives have said they should be. Apologies, you can see. He says hes in scotland so well get to any live pictures any live events here on the programme in the next little while. They were quick out of the gates this morning, all of the Party Leaders their campaign launches. Its been a really busy at first, what, eight or nine hours . Lets get more from our Political Correspondent damian grammaticas. Enter the man who has staked everything on this gamble, calling an election now. Quite a few of his mps are not convinced by the timing and he has a huge poll deficit to overcome. I want to build a britain, a country where you all can have confidence, restored confidence and pride in our communities, in our society and our nation. Earlier he had an admission hed promised deportation flights to rwanda. Now he says they will happen if he is elected. We have already started detaining people, we have hired the escorts, we have an airfield on standby and we have booked the flights. All of that work is already ongoing and the choice of this election is clear, because if im reelected as Prime Minister on the 5th ofjuly, these flights will go. The labour leader was 200 miles to the south, in kent. Keeping with tradition, he stopped for the first baby of his campaign. Less traditional this location to launch, far from usual labour heartlands. So this election is about a choice, two different countries, two different futures. Decline and chaos continuing under the tories, or rebuilding our country under labour. For the next few weeks, sir keir starmer will be pressed for more detail about that change and the plan he has already outlined. We will make the economy stable, how we will ensure we bring down the waiting times with 40,000 appointments every week, extra appointments under a labour government. How we will have the Border Security command take control of our borders, which have been lost under this government. How we set up gb energy so well have prices down for good. Richard tice, leader of reform uk, launched without his partys best known member, nigel farage, reforms honorary president. He has chosen not to enter the fray, saying he wants to help in the us election this autumn and here where he can. I am absolutely delighted, during this Election Campaign, that my good friend nigel farage will be helping out significantly in campaigning to drive home the message of reform uk and how we can save britain. Also hoping to siphon votes away from the conservatives are the Liberal Democrats. They launched yesterday. Today, their Deputy Leader said they are concentrating their efforts on several dozen target seats. I think we all know the country is absolutely crying out for change. We all know that, we feel it in our bones. But there are places around the country, around 80 seats, where it is the Liberal Democrats who can deliver that change, where Liberal Democrats are the key challengers to the conservatives, and it is in those areas we are really going after conservative mps because we are best placed to beat them in this general election. When he announced this election, rishi sunak might have been hoping to catch other parties on the back foot, like the snp, whose new leader was installed just this month. The manifesto is well advanced, we are hitting the road today to start the Election Campaign, so we are ready to go and i will be out and about around the country and i intend to take my message to every part of the country. I am the First Minister of all of scotland and i intend to be present in every part of scotland. In westminster, mps were scrambling to see what of all the legislation in progress could be rushed through. Rishi sunak� s own signature measure to ban smoking looks likely to be ditched. It was meant to be part of his legacy. Damian grammaticas, bbc news, westminster. Lets go live now to the bbc� s resident polling expert, Sirjohn Curtice professor of politics at strathclyde university. Sirjohn, you were talking about the ratings for the parties. A quick question, on the personal ratings for rishi sunak and sir keir starmer, given the Prime Minister is clearly making this an election, or trying to, about that straight choice. , � trying to, about that straight choice. , ~ � , choice. Yes he is. And its interesting choice. Yes he is. And its interesting hes choice. Yes he is. And its interesting hes trying choice. Yes he is. And its interesting hes trying to l choice. Yes he is. And its i interesting hes trying to do choice. Yes he is. And its interesting hes trying to do so, because at the moment at least, for many voters, its not a particularly attractive choice thats put before them. As far as mr sunak is concerned, if we take for example data from you god of yougov. He has fallen in popularity during his premiership, typical measures around 40 premiership, typical measures around 40 or so, labour of course get a better reading of course, but sir keir starmer� s personal ratings, they are not actually as good at as his partys, where weve got a very long series, he is not as popular as David Cameron was before he became Prime Minister in 2010, let alone tony blair back in 1997. So we do actually have sir here give people the straight choice will get people saying they prefer him to mr sunak and a lot of people will say neither. 0ne and a lot of people will say neither. One of the border issues about this election is it is being fronted notjust by these two gentlemen but also david, john swinney, none of them particularly known for their chrism, none of them particularly known for their ability to express a vision for the country in a clear, crisp concise fashion, and those are the things that tend to get voters interested and excited about the personal choice. Im not quite sure that its going to be a particularly interesting election if it is indeed fought as a wholly president ial one. It is indeed fought as a wholly president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting likely president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting likely to president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting likely to be, president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting likely to be, do president ial one. How important is Tactical Voting likely to be, do you | Tactical Voting likely to be, do you think . , Tactical Voting likely to be, do you think . ,. , Tactical Voting likely to be, do you think . , , think . The answer is, it could be. And if it is think . The answer is, it could be. And if it is it think . The answer is, it could be. And if it is it will think . The answer is, it could be. And if it is it will be and if it is it will be disadvantageous to the conservatives. 0ne disadvantageous to the conservatives. One that was evident in this local election, last years local election its not great numbers. What you discover that in places where they conservatives are defending a seat against the party, the labour party does about two or three points better, and the Liberal Democrats do about 2 3 points worse. And that is reversed where the Liberal Democrats are challengers. When that happens, you can see how its possible how the losses of the seats will have a scale that eventually proves to be for the conservatives will be rather greater then would otherwise be the case. But i think here again, history is not very kind to the conservatives because the last time we saw Tactical Voting of this kind in local elections, it was in 1995 and 1996, and we did indeed see it in 1997, it was the election in which Tactical Voting was evident on that kind of scale for the first time. And it helps to explain why the conservatives in that election fell to around 165 seats, little more than half of the seats that they were trying to defend. 50. Than half of the seats that they were trying to defend. So, Tactical Voting represents were trying to defend. So, Tactical Voting represents a were trying to defend. So, Tactical Voting represents a risk were trying to defend. So, Tactical Voting represents a risk to were trying to defend. So, Tactical Voting represents a risk to the voting represents a risk to the conservatives, you spoke at the beginning aboutjust the giant risk of going to the polls that far behind. ~. , of going to the polls that far behind. ~. ,. ,. , of going to the polls that far behind. ~. ,. ,. , behind. What about reform and the threat from behind. What about reform and the threat from there . Behind. What about reform and the threat from there . Yeah, behind. What about reform and the threat from there . Yeah, thats threat from there . Yeah, thats undoubtedly another risk for the conservatives. Actually at the moment, the polls have been showing for quite a while now that there are more people who have switched from conservative to reform, then have switched from conservative in 2019 to labour now, itsjust switched from conservative in 2019 to labour now, its just over one switched from conservative in 2019 to labour now, itsjust over one in five of 2019 conservatives saying they were voting reform. Undoubtedly, the first base for mr sunak� s lowering that labour largely suna k� s lowering that labour largely it sunak� s lowering that labour largely it is to squeeze that reform vote. The last election in 2019, as soon as the election was called we saw the Brexit Party Vote for, the Liberal Democrats thought they were vote fall. But whether or not history will repeat itself, its not clear. And i think what certainly one has to remember, even if reform still does get screens, they are now determined to fight in conservative held seats in the weight of the brexit party did back in 2019 did not back in 2019, votes the raw reform party get, however small that might be is almost undoubtedly votes being taken away from the conservatives, particularly seats that they are trying to defend. Another reason that the outcome in seats could eventually be unkind to mr sunak. fix. Seats could eventually be unkind to mr sunak. �. , seats could eventually be unkind to mr sunak. ,. , mr sunak. A final thought then, because as mr sunak. A final thought then, because as we mr sunak. A final thought then, because as we know mr sunak. A final thought then, because as we