Transcripts For BBCNEWS BBC News 20240921 : vimarsana.com

BBCNEWS BBC News September 21, 2024

For the region. For the region. Hezbollah has now confirmed hezbollah has now confirmed the death of a top military commander, ibrahim aqil, after israel struck a highrise block of flats in the lebanese capital beirut on friday. Ibrahim aqil is considered the most highprofile member of the group to be killed in the current conflict, with the us having had a multimillion dollar bounty israel hit hard, without warning, in the densely populated residential district of dahiya. Calling this a precision strike, the target was the veteran hezbollah military leader ibrahim aqil. Israel said he had been eliminated, along with about ten commanders of an elite unit. At the time of the strike, aqil and the commanders of the radwan forces were gathered underground under a residential building in the heart of the dahiya in beirut, hiding among lebanese civilians, using them as human shields. They were in the middle of planning more terror attacks against israeli civilians. Aqil had plenty of enemies. The us had put a $7 million bounty on his head, accusing him of involvement in the killing of americans in beirut in the 1980s. Siren wails day after day now, hezbollah is being hit and being weakened by warfare from a distance. We were repeatedly prevented from reaching the scene by locals and the lebanese army. Siren wails well, emergency vehicles have been coming and going. We've counted at least ten ambulances coming up and down the road, going to pick up casualties. The dead are still being counted. There's a lot of anger here, a lot of tension. This was another major strike on hezbollah here in its stronghold in south beirut. Tonight, rescue workers still digging in the rubble for people who lived here. She giggles among the missing liyearold naya ghazi, a threat to noone. Orla guerin, bbc news, beirut. Our international editor jeremy bowen has more on hezbollah*s response and the impact of israel's strike. First of all, i can tell you that hezbollah in beirut haveissued a statement confirming that ibrahim aqil is dead. A greatjihadist, they said, a blessed life full of work, wounds, sacrifices, risks and achievements. After a week of, well, exploding pagers and radios and now this raid on a meeting that the hezbollah leadership clearly thought was secret in a basement in their stronghold in the southern suburbs of beirut. I mean, they have had a disastrous week, and they must be wondering what else israel has got in store for them. However, these remarkable tactical victories by the israelis do not bring them closer to their strategic objectives, which is, first of all, to stop the fire across the border into israel from lebanon, which has in fact intensified, and to get 60plus thousand israelis back to their homes in border towns, which have become ghost towns. There are more lebanese, incidentally, on the other side, who've had to leave their homes because of what israel has been doing in return. So what's been happening this week, ithink, is israel trying to break out of the status quo and do some real damage to their enemies. Now they've done the damage, but they haven't changed that status quo. And that's why there are fears that and there's quite a bit of talk as well in israel about the prospect of a military incursion by israeli ground troops into lebanon. And that is something that israel's western allies are against. But it may happen, and it's part of what is looking like a very dangerous slide towards allout war in the region, at really one of the most dangerous moments in the last 12 months. Jeremy bowen reporting. Israel has been moving more troops close to the border of southern lebanon, and israel's defence minister has talked about what he has called a new phase of the war. Some 60,000 residents of northern israel have left their homes due to the escalating conflict, from where our correspondent paul adams reports. Today, if this had happened say a week ago, you might thought, well, here is the latest sign of the minutes that hezbollah presents to the people of northern israel, because there had been volley after volley after volley of rockets flying over the northern border. We were witness to a couple of those as we arrived here about ten miles from the lebanese border a few hours ago. There was a salvo of around 1520 rockets that was intercepted right over our heads, so it has been a pretty spectacular day. Daniel howe gary, the chief israeli ministry spokesman, said there had been as many as 200 rockets fired over the border. But they have pretty much all been dealt with. We have had no reports of any significant damage or injury, it seems as though israel's air defence systems managed to cope with the threat perfectly well. And at the same time, we heard the reports from overnight of attacks on a large number of missile targets in southern lebanon with the destruction of as many as 1000 rocket barrels, according to the idf, and then, of course, the news from beirut. There are those who feel that, this week, a corner has been turned, that the israeli government which announced that the return of civilians to evacuated communities in the north was now one of its war aims, but it has stepped up a gear. It has shown the kind of resolve and determination that frankly people in this part of israel accused the government of not showing for the past 12 months. And it sounds kind of ridiculous, but if there were any gloves on before this, they are most definitively off. Lina khatib is the director of the school of oriental and african studies at the university of london's middle east institute. She told us more about israel's strategy in its conflict with hezbollah. What israel is trying to do is prevent hezbollah from using this military capacity by, for example, infiltrating its communications infrastructure, and causing disarray within the organisation. Let's not forget that an attack like the pager attack will mean hezbollah will now become suspicious about practically any equipment that it has imported, and so this kind of chaos within a militant group like this is in a way more crippling than largescale military action against it. Let's look at the timeline of all of this then because the latest strikes come after four days of deadly attacks in lebanon, widely attributed to israel, though israel has not confirmed any role. On tuesday, handheld pagers which were used by hezbollah, exploded across lebanon killing at least 12 people and injuring thousands of others. As some people were being laid to rest, at least 20 more others were killed by walkie talkies that exploded in a further attack on wednesday. Several people in iran and syria also suffered injuries. Since then, both israel and hezbollah have launched strikes towards each other, including israel's third targeted attack on beirut this year. Firas maksad is a senior fellow and senior director for outreach at the middle east institute. He told me about how the latest strikes could escalate an already intense situation. I'd like to start with the strike we saw in beirut today, which israel says killed hezbollah commander ibrahim aqil. It has also been confirmed now by hezbollah. How much does this strike ramp up an already tense situation? everybody in beirut is not sleeping tonight. Everybody is on edge. Clearly, this is the most unanticipated of scenarios. In three days, backtoback attacks, pagers, thousands of people being rushed to the hospitals, overflowing hospitals, and then the walkietalkies the following day. As we heard from the hezbollah chief yesterday, a message was delivered to him from israelis, saying, will you back away from the border or do you want more? and then this attack today almost decapitating hezbollah*s leadership. To this hour we are talking about 12 hezbollah commanders taken off the battlefield. This is, by every stretch of the imagination, taking both hezbollah and the rest of the lebanese by complete surprise. I wonder then, after those attacks, pager attacks, the walkietalkies, and now this, what does this mean for hezbollah? you point out ibrahim aqil was a top military leader. It the group weakened? very much so. I think the question is is it completely incapacitated? hezbollah is no doubt a formidable military force. It is the most powerful nonstate actor in the world. It has over 150,000 rockets. It brought israel to a standstill after a month long war in 2006. It is much stronger today than it was then. But the kind of exceptional strikes that we see in the past three days have definitely left it reeling. I would argue hezbollah even before the events of the last three days did not have the appetite for an allout war with israel. It very much preferred a war of attrition, a border war that now has cost over 60,000 israelis to flee their homes. After the strikes of the last three days, i don't think hezbollah has it in it right now to contemplate an allout war with israel. We are waiting, as you say, beirut, many people may not be sleeping tonight and it strikes me in having this conversation in recent months, many sides have been saying for a long time that nobody wants an allout war. But i wonder, when you look at the actions from israel, when you look at the comments from hassan nasrallah, do actions speak otherwise? are we nearing a point of getting closer to that potential war i was one of those analysts who sometime ago said nobody really wants an allout war. I am not too sure anymore. I haven't been sure really since benjamin netanyahu, the israeli prime minister, decided to take out hezbollah*s chief of staff in the heart of beirut onjuly 30. Clearly israel exercising escalation dominance, willing to risk allout war much more than hezbollah and iran are. I think it is an open question at this point, but i do want to say that there is an unrealistic expectation on behalf of the israelis as to what the strategic outcome could be. You would not be able to stop that crossborder fire simply through a military solution in lebanon. You would need to go back to diplomacy. But here is what i suspect the israelis can do, the understated or understated objective of this campaign they can deal a severe blow to the crown jewel of iran in the region, that ring of fire of proxies that iran has surrounded israel with, hezbollah in lebanon, the houthis in yemen, hamas in gaza, the militias in syria and iraq, if you are able to degrade and weaken hezbollah, that is a significant achievement. How would it be that hezbollah could acquiesce when of course we know its loyalties lie with hamas and iran. Doesn't it put that in a difficult situation? and that is exactly the kind of gridlock that we are in. I do not see hezbollah at all being able to decouple the lebanon front from the gaza front, despite the utter destruction that could be visited upon it and upon lebanon. From the day after 7 october, iran and hezbollah declared what they call is this unity of fronts, the entire iranian access in the region fighting in sync and together from various fronts. For hezbollah to decouple from gaza would be to do away with that entire strategy and the unity of the iranian block, so i don't see hezbollah being capable of doing that, nor do i think there patrons in iran would want to see that. Last question, a lot to pack in i am curious as to the mechanics of what an allout war could look like in your assessment. Are we talking about a ground invasion here, and something you said that struck me was israel achieving its aims through a ground invasion. We know now one of the stated aims is the return of residents to northern israel. Can it do that through military means or would this also require a diplomatic or political solution here? i had a sitdown today with two senior american officials dealing with these issues on background, and i can tell you the level of frustration in the administration is very high when it comes to israel expanding that campaign. The administration had essentially prenegotiated a deal that would see hezbollah move a certain number of kilometres off the border, a lot of contested points along that border. And they were guaranteed by both the french and the american. But to achieve that, iran and hezbollah made that premise on a ceasefire in gaza. And the administration is really trying to get hamas and israel past that finish line. The strategy fell apart. The ground component of an israeli occupation, it would be foolish of the israelis to try an attempt. They are much better off trying to degrade hezbollah in the coming days but we will have to wait and see. The international response to these latest attacks has been growing, including from the white house, where, during a cabinet meeting on friday, president biden was asked what this means for the prospect of peace in the region. In the peace process, we are continuing to try to do and try for the beginning to make sure that both people in northern israel as well as southern lebanon are able to go back to their homes and go back safely. And the secretary of state, secretary of defence, our whole team is working and the intelligence community to try to get it done. We're going to keep at it *til we get it done, but we've got a way to go out. At a special meeting of the un security council on friday, several members condemned this week's explosions on the communications devices. If things continue as they are, we risk seeing a conflagration that could dwarf even the devastation and suffering witnessed so far. It is not too late to avoid such folly. There is still room for diplomacy which must be used without delay. The un human rights chief volker turk said he was appalled by those attacks, saying they could constitute a war crime. International humanitarian law prohibits the use of boobytrap devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects, which are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material. It is a war crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians. Patrick theros served as the us ambassador to qatar from 1995 to 1998. He shared his reaction to israel's tactics. Let's start with those comments from the un. Human rights chief volker turk said he was appalled by those synchronised explosions of pagers which he said could constitute a war crime. What do you make of

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