Transcripts For BBCNEWS The Context 20241001

Hello, im christian fraser. Youre watching the context on bbc news. Three areas on israels northern border are declared to military zones amid mounting evidence that israel may launch a Ground Offensive against hezbollah in lebanon. The us with the forecast warned that the us Weather Forecasters spent most of last weekend warning that Hurricane Helene would be an immensely destructive force. And notjust for those communities on the coast. Those forecast were remarkably accurate. From florida, through georgia, the South And North carolinas, to virginia. There were some places 500 Miles Inland that received two and half feet of rain. The widespread flooding has caused billions of dollars of damage, that will take months if not years to repair. Heres our North America Correspondent carl nasman. Florida to georgia to tennessee, homes and livelihoods washed away. More than 100 people have died across six states since the hurricane made landfall in florida on thursday. With hundreds still unaccounted for, that figure is expected to rise. Ive never seen so many people homeless as what i have right now. This is the third storm in a year. Like, i dont know how much more we can take, and then theyre telling us theres another one out there. Mountain regions of North Carolina are some of the hardest hit. The splintered remains of communities now floating in floodwaters. Even before the officer got to me, the water was all the way up to my chest inside my car. I couldnt even think what was going on it happened so fast to me and scared the life out of me. Rescuers say theyre still trying to reach residents Cut Off by damaged roads and a lack of Cell Phone Service. Officials in the city of asheville say they face biblical devastation. Millions across the South East have been left without power and queues have formed at petrol stations. Some of the states most affected, georgia and North Carolina, are expected to be decisive in Novembers President ial election. While the Clean Up continues, people hope the worst is over, but with two months of Hurricane Season left, helene may not be the last storm on the horizon. Carl nasman, bbc news. Homeland security officials are saying that up to 600 may be feared dead. This humanitarian crisis fast becoming a major political story, crisis fast becoming a major politicalstory, in crisis fast becoming a major political story, in part because two president ial swing states, georgia and North Carolina, are among the most affected. The White House keenly attuned to that. HenceJoe Bidens comments this afternoon. Donald trump in georgia where he has been been criticising the response. There are over 20 federal rescue teams, working across five states, to locate and assist those Cut Off. Lars anderson was formerly a Senior Adviser at fema, the federal emergency management agency. Hejoins us. He joins us. Thank you for your patience because i know youve been standing by for us while we have been focusing on events in lebanon. Thank you for that. To put this into perspective, where does this rank for you . This is unprecedented. If you look at the damage across five different states and you look at more importantly if you look at more importantly if you look at where the damage is. We are talking asheville, in the mountains of North Carolina. You often dont think of those Mountain Cities and Mountain Towns as being the focus of a hurricane. You often think of New Orleans or charlston, those along the coast. This is really unprecedented. Irate along the coast. This is really unprecedented. Along the coast. This is really unprecedented. We all remember the Pr Disaster unprecedented. We all remember the Pr Disaster of unprecedented. We all remember the Pr Disaster of george unprecedented. We all remember the Pr Disaster of George Bush i the Pr Disaster of George Bush flying over New Orleans after hurricane katrina. The White House will be well aware of the political risk here. How do you assess their response to it so far . ,. ,. , ~ far . So far i think the focus has been far . So far i think the focus has been on far . So far i think the focus has been on the far . So far i think the focus has been on the right far . So far i think the focus| has been on the right thing. Its trying to find survivors, its trying to get aid to those who need it desperately. Talking trying to clear roads, trying to get networks back up, trying to get networks back up, trying to get Cell Phone Service return so people can get in communication. Thats really been the focus. 0ver really been the focus. Over 50,000 people both from the us Government And Aid agencies across the affected area trying to get assistance to those folks. Thats the governments first and foremost intention is to get help, and thats the right focus. To get help, and thats the riaht focus. ~. ,. ,. , ~ right focus. What do you make of this latest right focus. What do you make of this latest report right focus. What do you make of this latest report from of this latest report from Homeland Security that 600 people may be dead. I know there was one county that had 600 people in its missing register. We get the sense that we really dont know the full scale of this at the moment. There are a lot of communities that are still Cut Off. I think Communication Lines are not solid, and so people dont really know the full scale of this is yet, thats why the us government has teams, why states have teams to establish those lines of communication, really doing help to those who needed. , ,. , really doing help to those who needed. ,. ,. , needed. Professor Scott Galloway needed. Professor Scott Galloway is needed. Professor Scott Galloway is with needed. Professor Scott Galloway is with us needed. Professor Scott Galloway is with us on i needed. Professor Scott I Galloway is with us on our panel this evening and i want to get his thoughts on the cost that this is now imparting on the us economy. The strength of the us economy. The strength of the hurricanes that we have seenin the hurricanes that we have seen in recent years on protecting those in resilience that they will have to build in this community. And often times in these communities there is understanding the Builders Community sometimes these communities are in geographic areas that are especially vulnerable to these types of catastrophes that will probably happen on a more and whether they should be rebuilt. The second order whether its migration or the fact that new migration or the fact that now there are migration or the fact that now there are Millions Migration or the fact that now there are millions of migration or the fact that rime there are millions of homes that are uninsured or insurable. I heard today the climate Scientists Something called the category six hurricane. Because of the strength and your previous guests talking about the penetration and lend, but absolutely the economic impact is catastrophic here. To Add Misery to this whole situation. Biden and harris are somewhat remiss to bring up Climate Change for fear that they may come across as anti Fossil Fuel and turn off moderates. We are likely to see more of this. And we are addressing it as aggressively as we should be addressing it. Addressing it. Scott is right. I remember addressing it. Scott is right. I remember this addressing it. Scott is right. I remember this with addressing it. Scott is right. I remember this with the i i remember this with the flooding that we saw through california just a few years ago. Large parts of the California Valley are historic floodplains and yet they are now densely populated and scott says they will rebuild in those floodplains, but at some point in the not too distant future, they will flood again. In the nottoodistant future, they will flood again. They will flood again. Right, we need to they will flood again. Right, we need to build they will flood again. Right, we need to build resilience. J they will flood again. Right, i we need to build resilience. As we need to build resilience. As we go back and rebuild, we need to build in resilience into this. We need to think about how do we prevent flooding because . That we mitigate flooding we need to think about if we are going to be rebuilding these areas, what does that look like, what is the cost, what is the mitigation factors we need to take in account . I think thats really, really important going forward in order to ensure that we mitigate as much as possible, future risk. Politically possible, future risk. Politicall , politically as you say, it is really interesting politically as you say, it is really interesting to politically as you say, it is really interesting to me. Politically as you say, it is i really interesting to me that republicans talk so little to go they even deny that it is happening in some quarters. When you look at the states affected here, these are all republican controlled states, florida, georgia, the ca rolinas, florida, georgia, the carolinas, albeit North Carolinas, albeit North Carolina has a democratic governor. You wonder how long it will be that the people that are suffering their will put up with this sort of Climate Change denial. With this sort of Climate Change denial. Yeah, if you thou~ht change denial. Yeah, if you thought we change denial. Yeah, if you thought we were change denial. Yeah, if you thought we were fresh change denial. Yeah, if you thought we were fresh out | change denial. Yeah, if you i thought we were fresh out of crazy thought we were fresh out of crazy or thought we were fresh out of crazy or a thought we were fresh out of crazy or a lack of Self Interest in the us, you know, Spoiler Interest in the us, you know, spoiler alert, we arent. These types spoiler alert, we arent. These types of spoiler alert, we arent. These types of folks who dont believe in Climate Change are absolutely The Ones that are most absolutely The Ones that are most affected by it. Just reiterating what you said. But another reiterating what you said. But another one of the most dangerous things about this is that americans are, as a species. That americans are, as a species, humans are very adaptable, and unfortunately, in the adaptable, and unfortunately, in the united states, where something like 40 of our Nations Something like 40 of our nations Super Fires in the last nations Super Fires in the last 200 nations Super Fires in the last 200 years have happened in the test last 200 years have happened in the last ten years. Unfortunately we are adapting to this unfortunately we are adapting to this. Its starting to become normalised. Its become so politcised that we just dont. So politcised that we just dont, we are unable with a divided dont, we are unable with a divided Senate And Congress to really divided Senate And Congress to really take real action against this really take real action against this it really take real action against this. It all leads to the same piece. This. It all leads to the same place, that is more and more climate place, that is more and more climate disaster and humans and Destruction And Infrastructure that does put squarely in the centre that does put squarely in the centre of that does put squarely in the centre of it. Centre of it. Lars, its good to have centre of it. Lars, its good to have you centre of it. Lars, its good to have you on centre of it. Lars, its good to have you on the centre of it. Lars, its good to have you on the programme this evening. Thank you very much for being with us. Thank ou. Why is Kamala Harris winning in the Blue Wall states yet seemingly behind in those southern sunbelt states. The answer most probably the Latino Vote. A new nbc poll, released this weekend, shows that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by Ia Points among latinos, which is an improving picture. She has regained some of the Latino Supportjoe Biden had lost before he stood down. But it is almost 20 points less, than the lead Joe Biden had among latinos, four years ago. It is unmistakable Donald Trump has made sbig inroads among this section of the electorate. And especially so in nevada where latinos make up one in four voters. So what is driving that shift . Well, first is that gender gap. Which see in other voting groups. She is tied with Donald Trump among latino men. And yet she has a 26 Point Advantage among women. Age, another big factor. She has a 60 Point Advantage with latinos over 50 shes barely leading with hispanic voters under 50. Thats the generational divide. And the issues . Abortion is a big factor. Being competent and effective, another major consideration. All of which is good news for the democrats. But trump leads on the economy, he has a nine Point Advantage on who is best placed to tackle inflation, and then comes the border and immigration, Donald Trump with a double digit advantage, 13 points in this nbc poll. Lets bring in Amanda Renteria former national Political Directorfor the hillary clinton campaign. Lovely to see you. Thank you for being with us. I bet youve been pouring over this poll. I know you do so much work for democrats reaching out into the latino community. What do you take away from it . Take away from it . Well, first of all, take away from it . Well, first of all. Its take away from it . Well, first of all, its great take away from it . Well, first of all, its great to take away from it . Well, first of all, its great to see take away from it . Well, first of all, its great to see you i of all, its great to see you again. Of all, its great to see you aaain. � ,. , of all, its great to see you again we of all, its great to see you again. Ive been l of all, its great to see you again. Ive been busy. Again. And you. Ive been busy. As ou again. And you. Ive been busy. As you might again. And you. Ive been busy. As you might imagine. Again. And you. Ive been busy. As you might imagine. Listen, i as you might imagine. Listen, we have always known the latino community is not a monolith. That is what you will hear. What has happened in this election is the decentralised news to the various different counties, different segments where they are talking to women or men, so what you are beginning to see as the country is really digging into the different crossta bs, is really digging into the different crosstabs, getting to know the community and theres a couple of things going on here. Number one is everyone comes from a different place whether you are talking about our california or miami. And both campaigns have done a much betterjob getting to know the community. The second piece though and this is one thats really important at this point in the election which is the Misinformation And Disinformation because the latino community is so decentralised, where you get your news is extremely different depending on the community. And it does lend itself to quite a bit of Misinformation And Disinformation. Just over this past week and there were a couple of celebrities who are even no longer with us, and particularly celebrities that are traditional, one name, big in men, my dad loves him, everybody loves them. He is no longer with us but apparently there was an endorsement by him for trump. There was an endorsement by him fortrump. His there was an endorsement by him for trump. His son had to come out and say that wasnt true. So it has been a very big process for a democratic party to keep ahead of all of the different Misinformation And Disinformation because it is so decentralised. The last thing i will say about the latino community as they are late to engage within elections. So now is the time i am digging into cross bowls, now is the time where what the candidates say on the economy really matters. The one thing that hasnt changed, the economy is at the highest top of the ticket always. So the last Policy Proposal that, always. So the last Policy Proposalthat, harris always. So the last Policy Proposal that, harris put out is going to be important. Shes going to have to continue to drive that message with latinos but it is important, now is the time to tune in and all the various platforms that you can Find Latinos in. Find latinos in. Demo is staggered Find Latinos in. Demo is staggered by Find Latinos in. Demo is staggered by some Find Latinos in. Demo is staggered by some of. Find latinos in. Demo is. Staggered by some of this figures when it comes to the Latino Vote which gets more and more important every four years. So i am doing my homework ahead of results night, as you would expect. We dont talk about latino communities in pennsylvania. So there is a city of reading in pennsylvania where one in four voters are latino. Voters in North Carolina, Latino Voters are more than doubled in 12 years. So theres i. I are more than doubled in 12 years. So theres 1. 1 Million latino Voters Half of them unaffiliated. We talk about two states there, we think about the Sun Belt states, but we are talking about two states where it could be 100,000 votes. So they are in absolutely critical dimension in this race and yet but i dont feel as if i hear that from democrats in those states. I would agree with you that we dont talk about it enough nationally. What i will say is this years strategy, and you really see this in the democratic party mostly, the reason why, Love Isnt showing up reason why, Love Isnt showing up as much on national television is because her Inter Campaign are very embedded in where is that Radio Station kamala. Wheres that County Reporter that i can talk to . That is incredibly critical for the latino community. And we have, for a long time, been talking about the fact that the gap in pennsylvania, in michigan, in North Carolina is that a growing latino population, and they do end up voting, like many of my family, they actually dont check republican or democrat, they check independent. So it makes it difficult. And what you hear often is i didnt get a call from any campaign, largely because they dont sign up as democrats or republicans, and so it it is required for both campaigns, both parties to really dig in and find those different areas so that you can reach communities on the ground. I will also say i was in pennsylvania in those rural towns three days before the election in 2016, and even then, people were not as engaged as you would normally see in a philadelphia or in a city centre. So it takes a heck of a lot more work to be on the ground in those areas, and i have to say latinos in urban areas are very different from rural latinos. So it is important that campaigns are on the ground, speaking to them one on onein the ground, speaking to them one on one in those districts, especially now with Misinformation And Disinformation. Scott galloway is with us. The generational divide and how Donald Trump has eaten into that. Republicans have done very well with latinos. Have done very well with latinos have done very well with latinos. �. , latinos. And marketing we went from demographic latinos. And marketing we went | from Demographic Segmentation to psychographic to behavioural. And i almost feel that using the Term Latino is like that using the Term Latino is like saying africa. Are we talking like saying africa. Are we talking about Kigali Or Cape town . Talking about Kigali Or Cape town . And that is a voter in southern town . And that is a voter in Southern Border has much different priorities and feelings in a recent Naturalised Citizen and a latino Naturalised Citizen and a latino citizen in california. The latino citizen in california. The inspiring thing here is latinos the inspiring thing here is latinos who are incredibly important part increasingly part important part increasingly part of important part increasingly part of our community at the End Part of our community at the end of part of our community at the end of the daysjust becoming more end of the daysjust becoming more american and that is they are choosing their individual issues are choosing their individual issues and attempting to label them issues and attempting to label them as issues and attempting to label them as any party is somewhat a waste them as any party is somewhat a waste of them as any party is somewhat a waste of time. These arent Latinos Waste of time. These arent latinos, these are americans with latinos, these are americans with entirely different views based with entirely different views based on their background. It based on their background. A final based on their background. Final thought, amanda, The One thing that does occur to me is that if you are a democrat out there campaigning, surely the biggest threat to the latino community, anybody come i dont kjaer if you are a second, third generation, is this round up third generation, is this round up that Donald Trump is talking about, that would be a Stop And Search for him it would be an impact on peoples lives, surely. Impact on peoples lives, surel. , , impact on peoples lives, surel. , surely. Not everybody has the history of surely. Not everybody has the history of prop surely. Not everybody has the history of prop 187 surely. Not everybody has the history of prop 187 in history of prop 187 in california when every single School Kid was afraid that they would get a knock on the door. Part of the education here is candidates do have to share, what does it mean to round up immigrants or people that look like you, most of history doesnt know that, most of our latino community doesnt know that. Thats part of the Education Process in this election cycle. Education process in this election cle. ,. ,. , election cycle. Amanda, lovely to see you election cycle. Amanda, lovely to see you. We election cycle. Amanda, lovely to see you. We will election cycle. Amanda, lovely to see you. We will talk election cycle. Amanda, lovely to see you. We will talk more, j to see you. We will talk more, no doubt. I hope we will. Good to have you on the programme again. Thank you. Returning to our top story this hour, is specialforces hour, is Special Forces carrying hour, is specialforces carrying out small targeted raids into southern lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing, ahead of an expected ground incursion. Heres what we know so far. The israeli tanks have been gathering up the northern border. These are the pictures from earlier. Israel has declared part of that board a closed military zone. There are three suburbs in the south part of beirut, the Southern Suburbs of beirut, the Southern Suburbs of beirut, the Southern Suburbs of beirut that have been ordered to evacuate. That order came in the post on Social Media that the idf� s arabic spokesperson said you are located near interests and facilities belonging to the terrorist Hezbollah Group and therefore the idf will act against them forcefully, in fact im just seeing them here from reuters that there has a large blast heard in the last few minutes. Israels Defence Minister told troops near the lebanese border they were prepared to use force from the air, sea, the lands, to target sea, the lands, to target air, sea, the lands, to target hezbollah. Theyve been in hezbollah. Theyve been in contact with israel about its contact with israel about its plans and. Plans and. Contact with israel about its plans and contact with israel about its plans and plans and. We have been in conversations, plans and. We have been in conversations, but plans and. We have been in plans and. We have been in conversations, plans and. We have been in conversations, but plans and. We have been in conversations, but a plans and. We have been in| conversations, but a number plans and. We have been in conversations, but a number of operations. I have seen reports conversations, but a plans and. We have been in| conversations, but a number plans and. We have been in conversations, but a number of operations. I have seen reports about Ground Operations, we about Ground Operations, we have some conversations about have some conversations about that. They have at this time that. They have at this time tells us these are limited tells us these are limited operations focused on hezbollah operations focused on Hezbollah Info Structure near the border Info Structure near the border but we are in continuous but we are in continuous conversations with them about conversations with them about it. � ,. ,. , ~ it. � ,. ,. , ~ conversations with them about it. � ,. , conversations with them about conversations with them about it. � ,. , conversations with them about it. Lets look at some of the pictures it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had it. Lets look at some of the pictures it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had in it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had in from i it. Lets look at some of the i pictures weve had in from the it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had in it. Lets look at some of the pictures weve had in from i it. Lets look at some of the i pictures weve had in from the news agency, a camera pointed news agency, a camera pointed across the Borderfrom Israel a across the Borderfrom Israel a couple of flashes. And a Delay Couple of flashes. And a delay of about ten seconds or so and of about ten seconds or so and then you hear the flooding. Then you hear the flooding. Then you hear the thudding. Then you hear the thudding. Weve been told in the last coming up for an Election And Show empathy and try and encourage a cease fire. The same time, but imagine that us intelligence is sharing information and also just one notion that struck me today is that this has echoes, when russia initially in the early days of the russian invasion of ukraine and that is i wonder if the perception of the strength of hezbollah fits the actual reality of their competence. Israel has pulled off such an intelligent and operational. Weve never seen a fighting force, i would argue of this success right now, and nothing creates momentum like momentum and i would imagine that a lot of Temperance Or Restraint that the us has demonstrated. I think they have to offer that publicly, but when you see terrorists hunted down that the us has been looking forfor decades, and when you see a Middle East that a lot of people feel may be more unstable in the short term but more stable in the long term, if we can take out these organisations that have been labelled as terrorists as israel in the us, there is the perception and the reality they think the reality is that the us on an operational level, and a funding level, and a military level, on an Intelligence Level is very much in sync and supportive of israel right now. I dont doubt for technical brilliance of the idf forces. You cannot dispute it after the events of the last week, but the . Always is a strategy. And you say to take out these groups, i mean, you know, i have reported a lot from the region, i was in gaza in 20081 was in lebanon in 2006, yet here we are, and these groups go from strength to strength, they dont get weaker. So some people listening will certainly question the strategy. I people listening will certainly question the strategy. Question the strategy. I think that is an question the strategy. I think that is an entirely question the strategy. I think that is an entirely fair question the strategy. I think that is an entirely fair point. | that is an entirely fair point. I guess the question is one of incentives, and that is on october the 8th, hezbollah starts Firing One of 8500 rockets into israel, the question is, i think there is always a reason and theres always a reason and theres always a reason and theres always a strategy or public pressure that the smart thing for israel to do is just to push back to a truce, rather than doing whatever western nation with this type of military might has done in a democracy when they are attacked as brutally as israel, and that is pursuing victory. So itjust strikes me that the general viewpoint across the West End media and across encouraging israel to take it into push back to a tie as opposed to going on the offence, and i think there is a strategy and a Reason And Justification that says, 0k, it is time at least two pushback such that we compromised and severely weaken their ability to come again, as they get stronger, and what do they do when they gain strength . They begin harassing israel. Begin harassing israel. Scott, Aood Ou begin harassing israel. Scott, good you have begin harassing israel. Scott, good you have your begin harassing israel. Scott, good you have your company| begin harassing israel. Scott, good you have your company this evening. Thank you very much indeed for urinalysis. These are the live pictures you are looking up of beirut. I would point you to the live page on the bbc web page. You will find all of the latest from our live teams they are and what is happening at the border. Certainly a pensive night, i would suggest, in beirut, and a lot of concern in lebanon about what is about to unfold next. You are watching bbc news. Hello there. Extreme rainfall across south england. Here we have had 215 militated 215 mill metres of precipitation, and not far off, double the previous rainfall record. There are a number of sites across the South Midlands that have seen Record Rainfall this september. Thats resulted in, of course, lots of flooding. Another day another downpour and this time it was northern england bearing the brunt. Liverpools roads and pavement heading underwater. The area of low pressure responsible is going to be with us too much of the night bringing outbreaks of rain and some strong winds for East Anglia we could see gusts here running into the 50 mph. Particularly blustery below we kind of night. The wind strong enough to bring down one or two tree branches. Could be a little bit of localised Disruption Heading into tuesday. Same area of low pressure, slow moving, but continuing to bring the wet and windy weather in across eastern areas of england. The strongest winds will begin to ease down as we head into the afternoon. The best of the weather will be for scotland, northern ireland, parts of wales and Western Fringes of england as well. We can look forward to a much drier kind of day with a bit more in the way of sunshine. Temperatures ranging from around 13 17 celsius. Now, over the next few days, we will see a big change in our Weather Pattern as High Pressure becomes established across the uk. This looks to bring us a much quieter spell of weather. Heading into wednesday, most areas will have a dry day. If you missed and Fog Patches around, temperatures down in single figures. Still drips and drops of that Weather Front bringing the threat of some patchy rain to East Anglia and South East england. Still quite a windy kind of day. Those winds will ease as we head into thursday, the High Pressure dominates, a few Mist And Fog patches around him in the north, a bit of frost to start the date in the coldest spots, but for most of the country, thursday is a quieter day. It should be dry and most of us will see some fairly decent spells of sunshine. Temperatures around about 13 17 cemex lcs and this quieter Speu Cemex lcs and this quieter spell of weather should hang around for friday but into the weekend we see further changes, low pressure moves in, turns wet and windy, particularly for wales in southwest england. This low is going to be slow moving next week then, stays unsettled. At ten israel closes part of its Border Area with lebanon and tells the us its planning to launch a limited Ground Operation against hezbollah. Israeli tanks . Have been massing in northern israel. The Deputy Leader of hezbollah says they are ready to fight israeli soldiers if they cross into lebanon. 0n the israeli side of the border, we have had jets flying overhead and the sound of artillery as the region braces for an israeli invasion of lebanon. Well look at what might face israeli troops, the impact on civilians in lebanon, and analyse how America And Iran might respond. Also tonight, an apology from the bbc over strictly. The corporation upholds several but not all the complaints of the former Contender Amanda Abbington against her Dance Partner Giovanni pernice. And Prince Harry is in the uk, celebrating the achievements of young people with serious health conditions. But will he meet his brother and the king . 0n Newsnight at 10. 30pm, well bring you fresh insight on the stories of the day, with big interviews and our regular panel of newsnighters, and of course look at what the papers are saying about tomorrows news