More than 200,000 have fled into neighbouring syria. Now on bbc new, talking business. Now on bbc news, talking business. Hello and welcome to talking business. Lets take a look at whats on the programme this week. Is the world in crisis and riskier than ever before . As Wars Rage on in The Middle East, ukraine and sudan, alongside political and economic crisis, and with Climate Change threatening millions of livelihoods, just how do businesses keep their operations going and their people safe . Ill discuss that with our panel this week arnaud vaissie, whos the boss of International Sos, which helps businesses manage risk and safety. And doctor sheila brady, whos worked with the eu and un to keep people safe in war zones. Shes now exploring how ai can help organisations manage their risk in an uncertain world. And well have an exclusive interview with a man whos been running operations in a war zone. Energy infrastructure in ukraine has been a Key Target of russian air strikes. Ill speak to Maksym Tymchenko of Ukraines Energy giant dtek about keeping the lights on and the people safe whilst under attack from russia. Wherever in the world yourejoining us from, welcome to the programme. At the beginning of september this year, the heads of the uk and american foreign intelligence services wrote an unprecedented article saying that stability of the world was under threat in a way not seen since the cold war, and since then, theres been even more instability. Those in the industry call it a perma crisis, a sense that the world is lurching from one extreme event, such as the covid pandemic, to another. The multiple international conflicts in The Middle East the multiple international conflicts. In The Middle East fighting, bombing and fatalities on multiple fronts. In europe Russias Invasion of ukraine rages on into its third year, and the threat of that escalating is now seen as greater than ever before, with fighting now on both ukrainian and russian territory. In sudan civil War And Famine threatens the lives of thousands of people. And thats before you consider Trade Disputes between america and china, as well as chinas continuing ambition to retake control of taiwan. Elsewhere in asia, North Korea and its nuclear ambitions may not make regular headlines, but the Threat Hasnt gone away. And of course, the crisis without borders Climate Change and the threat it poses to the lives and livelihoods of millions around the world. My first guest hes the boss of International Sos, which helps businesses cope with danger and risk. Arnaud vaissie, welcome to talking business. And first of all, give me your Assessment Ofjust how risky, how dangerous the world is right now. Because if you look at that perceived Risk Level in your data, its higher than ever recorded. Why . Yes, definitely. The world is risky because we have crisis all over the world. The issue is, is it riskier than before . Maybe so. Is it as risky as it is going to be in the future . I think weve got to get used to the fact that we are going to live within a world in crisis. So the whole point is to know how to navigate crisis. But clearly, if you look at the geopolitical situation around the world, youve got crises in, of course, with the war in ukraine, uou have The Middle East, with the war in ukraine, you have The Middle East, which is extraordinarily fragile. The China Sea is very volatile, and there are many other issues around the world. Climate is also a very serious factor to to look at. We publish alerts at International Sos on a daily basis. We had to publish in 2023 80 more alerts related to climate issues. So whether you look at it and youve got the american election coming up on the 7th of november, and clearly disinformation is also an issue that we have to look at. So to answer your question, yes, the world is risky. But if you give us a sense of the riskiness For Business right now, how do you start to assess that risk . Businesses, like All Of Us, have to accept that they are going to operate within a risky environment. So For Businesses, the whole point is not to interrupt operations. It is to ensure that operations are going to keep functioning in spite of the uncertainty. So what does business have to do . First of all, to ensure the Health And Security of its employees. In order to do so, businesses have to be prepared. And i would say things have changed in this regard, now businesses have to really look at crisis management, at some planning, at getting organised, so that they are not surprised when a new crisis arrives. It is just the world as it is now. Arnaud vaissie, its good to have you on the programme this week. Thank you. Now, my next guest has worked in the field for decades with the irish police force, the European Union and the United Nations in places like bosnia, libya and nigeria. Shes currently at Dublin City university, working as the commercial lead on a new project. It uses al to enhance Safety And Security For Business. Doctor sheelagh brady, welcome to the programme. And it sometimes feels like things are pretty difficult right now that the world is a riskier place. Is that how you see it . Well, the world has always been a risky place, and it depends really from what perspective youre looking at. But i think most people would agree that were dealing now with a combination, a unique combination of factors. Geopolitical tensions, economic instability, advances in technologies, the recent pandemic, major weather events. And i think these all create an environment where it looks riskier. Also, i think its important to say that actually our exposure to instant media or instant reports of events throughout the world gives us that sense that we understand a little bit more of the risk and the nature of the risk thats present. I think a lack of data in the past has probably fooled us into thinking there were less risks. So i think, as i say, were in a unique position now. We have the data, we probably have too much data and in many ways, but its very hard to compare with, say, the past to quantify whether were in a riskier place. But i do think we have a unique number of factors that are contributing to quite a volatile globe. If we look at the images coming out of The Middle East right now, one of the key conflicts that is making the world a riskier place. If, for example, you were advising a business in beirut, what would you tell them about how they keep their operations and their staff, crucially, how do they keep them safe . Well, i think initially its that kind of primary, keep your staff safe, keep them informed of whats going on. Try to understand what Risk Exposure they have at that individual level. And i think that has to be done. And, you know, its not good enough just to say, well contact you. You dont have to come to work. You have to try to understand what assets they have, what conditions theyre living in, what Risk Exposure they have in the real time. At The End of the day, a company has a moral obligation to look after its staff. I think also at the operational level, they have to look at the whether their operations are currently essential. So for argument� s sake, if this was somebody selling technologies, probably the best advice would be if there were non local staff, at least to get them out of the country and to, well say, stall operations for the time being. But if they were a medical, like a hospital, or if they were providing medical technologies that will help in a hospital, its highly likely that theyll be so required that they actually do need to now start looking at practical mitigation measures. And that might be actually bringing in third parties to provide them with transporting staff or assets safely between two or three or a number of locations. But we really need the criticality of the Organisations Role at that time. And if its not critical, then i think keeping your people safe or actually taking them out of the country, if thats possible, have to be the top decisions of the day. You look at all the stats, all the numbers, everything that the data tells you about risk, and you build up that picture to present, you know, an assessment of whether you think it is risky or not. There has been a shift of people enabling to empower business. You have to look at the people within the organisation they are exposing to rest, for example a media outlet. It wants the journalist on the ground in that very high Risk Level because they want to get the news back to the public and we, the public, want that. But actually, do they need to be sending their Sales Team . It is about having an understanding of risk appetite, what is the risk of the. What is the Cost Benefit Analysis of doing that. And it strikes me too as well, sheila, that everything you do is based on data, isnt it . You look at all the stats, all the numbers, everything that the data tells you about risk, and you build up that picture to present, you know, an assessment of whether you think it is risky or not. And that could fundamentally be changed by things like ai as well. Talk to me about how youre using new tech in the way you build that picture of risk . So ive been an analyst for years. Ive created my own data sets. You know, data is our life key. And just even when were talking about risk, assessing the risk is one thing. Applying that risk to the activities of an organisation is another. At Dublin City university, we currently have a project and were trying to look at how Ai Machine learning and other technologies can really enhance risk assessment. So on a positive, it can enhance it by actually letting us process so much more data, past histories, project into forecasting for the future. But its not a panacea for everything. And we are finding that actually the best is a combination of the human in the loop and the data. Doctor sheelagh brady, so good to talk to you on the programme this week. Thank you for being with us. Thank you. Well, my next guest knows all too well about operating in a risky environment. His company, ditech, is the largest private power his company is the largest private Power Supplier in ukraine, and their operations have been underfire from russia for more than two years. Maksym tymchenko, welcome to talking business. And let me start, first of all, with how things are right now. How are your operations . How is the business . Now its absolute focus for All Of Us to to get prepared for the coming winter. And we spent seven months after massive attacks of russians and probably heard it from april. This year, it was five waves of attacks of our infrastructure, mostly thermal Power Stations, and they managed to destroy about 50 of our generation in ukraine. So of course, we put all our efforts, all our resources to be ready for the coming winter. And basically thats our focus. The Heating Season is coming. And weve done everything possible to have enough Generation Capacity for the coming winter. Now, winter approaching is a huge challenge for any energy company, but especially for you. How do you prepare for the cold weather when youre under attack from russian missiles . What is it that you are up against on a day to Day Basis . I can say that, you know, all possible corporate risks for the company relies in our case. So we have all these challenges. And the major challenge is to bring all people, motivate people to work hard, to be prepared. When they destroy, we restore. They destroy again, we restore it again. And unity in Ukraine And Leadership of ministry of Energy Help us to to bring people, to bring equipment, to bring all support we are getting from other countries and make this installation and recovery, connect to the grid and have a result. So the most difficult for us is to find all resources we need to restore all this capacity after such a dramatic damage russians brought to us. What is the most difficult thing for you to tackle right now . Do you have everything you need . Im thinking about the equipment, the supplies, the resources, because youve touched on the physical elements of it, getting what you need, but also how do you motivate your staff to do the same job time and time again as things are destroyed and you have to rebuild, rebuild and rebuild . Of course, if you see the images of destruction, its hard to believe that it can be restored. But what weve done and again, coming back to unity among energy companies, ukraine. So we take pieces of equipment from one Power Station and move to another. We co ordinate with our colleagues. One of our Power Stations close to the russian border, we had to stop it because its very close to military Front Line and dismantle most of equipment and move it to the west of ukraine and install it there. Then we visited many European Countries and getting equipment from decommissioning coal Power Station and bring them back to ukraine. So again, its all concentrated in the hands of Ministry Of Energy. And personally, Ministry Of Energy is involved in this process. They co ordinate and we work together so that we share this equipment among us. So of course, we need financial support and we received a support from us aid, from agency of us government, from European Union, from united kingdom. So from all our allies, we received financial support, in form of equipment. And that helps us a lot to be ready and to be resistant and to have confidence that we go through the next winter. Do you have all the style that you need to maintain your operations . A lot of your staff have been called up to fight in that war . We have been called up to fight in that war . ~. ,. , that war . We operate in different that war . We operate in different segments. That war . We operate in different segments. We | different segments. We accumulated all the resource, all people, to work on this task. Today we have people working on the registration of our Power Units. Of course, people want to see that their Power Station is connected to the grid and operational again because it is the whole life of these people around the Power Station and their families and generations. Of course people come and say, please call us to do whatever work you need. Clear the site, build the roads, do engineering work, connect to the grade and we bring resources. People clean up bring resources. People clean up the site after the air strike. 0ur Engineers come in from distribution companies, come to Power Station to connect the Power Station to the grade. So this is the way how we cope all this challenges. You talked about some of those Power Plants that are near or on the Front Line. There is concern, isnt there, particularly about the nuclear plants and whether they are at risk. How much of a concern is that for you right now . Are you able to mitigate some of those risks by moving some of the more dangerous components away from the Front Line . 0ur Nuclear Facilities and nuclear Power Plants is the foundation of the whole energy of ukraine. And, you know, i can say that our nuclear company doing greatjob under these circumstances, have enough capacity to go through repairs, campaign and get all these facilities ready for the winter. But of course, its primary target for russians because what they do is they try to disconnect nuclear Power Station from the grid. And in this case, we rely a lot on our Air Defence forces. And a lot of attention to this, especially over the last weeks. You know, its publicly stated by our president , by our minister of energy, so that we need protection. And i think that we can cope with this challenge as well. So weve done, and our colleagues in nuclear company, theyve done theirjob. Make sure that all nuclear Power Units are operational for the coming winter. Now, we rely a lot on our Air Defence forces and our partners that we have enough Air Defence systems and ammunition to protect this Power Station against attacks. Now, maksym , i spoke to you just after the war broke out, and you talked about the challenges you were facing. Here we are, entering its third year of war. Did you ever think that this war could go on for so long, and you would still be facing these sorts of challenges . You know, my opinion is that you can never be prepared for a war, physically or even mentally. But you shouldnt just think every day, when this war is over, you have to fight. And the stronger you are, more resistant, then sooner this war will be over. So now our company became fighters and we call it energy front, and we are fighting for two and a half years. The tech, other companies, our Ministry Of Energy, we are all fighting. And as i said, the stronger we are, sooner this war will be over. Does that make you essentially the general of that unit, that you are in charge of these men . You are in charge of your workforce. And i wonder what that means for you. How do you stay motivated, faced with all those challenges every day . How do you run an organisation and a team of people in a war . You have a purpose. Youre fighting for such important things, like your people, your children, yourfuture, and not only ukraine, also for the future of European Countries. And having this mission in mind, you shouldnt do a lot to motivate yourself. You have a mission and at some sense for ukrainian people and for people working in Energy Industry especially, its historical mission, because without electricity we will not exist, so we will be fighting as much as its necessary to protect ourselves, to protect our partners, and to deliver our mission keep light on. Maksym tymchenko of dtek, thank you for being with us on the programme once again. Were grateful for your time. Thank you very much. Now, the world of Drug Development is tricky enough for humans, but its even more complicated if you look at lots of different species. My next guest knows all about working with unpredictable timelines. Hes the boss of elanco. Its one of the worlds biggest makers of drugs for Farm Animals and pets. Jeff simmons of elanco, welcome to talking business. Now, on the show this week were talking about risk and how thats growing right around the world. And i wonderfor you, how you deal with unpredictability in yourjob, how that makes it more difficult for you to run a business, given the amount of unpredictability economically, geopolitically in the world right now. Yeah, a lot of unpredictability in the world. I think whats great about why an Animal Health industry, a 38 Billion global industry, has been very durable, has high multiples on the Stock Market is because weve got a lot of diversity to go against the adversity. So youve got 20 species of animals in elanco that we serve farmers, veterinarians and more veterinarians in more than 100 countries. Half of our business is livestock, half is pets. Theres two Big Tailwind Trends that really have made this industry grow more than mid single digit over the last decade, and thats all around the humanisation of pets, pets coming into the home here in america. Home. Here in america, thats seven out of ten homes and thats growing globally. And then the second is just protein, and being able to say on the animal protein side, how you do that in an efficient, safe, affordable way and now a more sustainable way. So in a very adverse world today, ourfocus is stay focused on those fundamentals that got us here. I know your shares took a bit of a tumble in the summer when you missed that Key Target. Do you think that shareholders should be a bit more forgiving ofjust how complex what you do is, and how many hoops youve got tojump through when it comes to things like regulation. And inevitably that means that things could take a bit longer . Were heavily focused on one give consumers our customers what they want farmers, veterinarians, drive innovation. We know innovation is the number one Value Driver in our industry. And weve got, you know, six blockbuster products coming between now that are in the marketplace and The End of next year, 600 Million to 700 Million of revenue. Its a Commitment Weve made by The End of next Year And Innovation sales. And that will be a key driver. We know that our, you know, medium long Term Value Proposition to our investors is compelling. We bring a one Health Solution to society Animal Health, Human Health with the protein and the companionship of pets. And now environmental health, with creating less footprint for farmers around the world while giving them actually, you know, a monetary value in doing that as well. So thats our focus. We know that we are one of the more compelling Value Propositions for the shareholders, and were focused on doing whats right, which is starting with a focus on the customer. But that doesnt really answer my question, does it . I was asking whether shareholders should be maybe a bit more forgiving of whats involved in getting a product to market, because, as you know, you may issue guidance saying that you want this product to be available on a certain date and for whatever reason, it might not happen. And you therefore see Shares Tank as a result. And its really difficult, isnt it . Youre running a complicated business. Should shareholders be more forgiving . Well, theres always, you know, differences by shareholders and needs. And what we would say is, you know, we give quarterly guidance. Weve delivered four quarters of consistent growth, delivered what weve said for over a year now, and weve guided and we guide into the future accordingly. I think its important to set realistic expectations and yes, explain very transparently the industry youre in. Were in a regulated industry. We know that innovation does have, you know, some volatility with that. And its ourjob to communicate to our shareholders appropriately and deliver consistently. And i think this quarterly guidance is something that we do uniquely to ensure that people, you know, have as limit to to any surprise as possible. Have as limit to any surprise as possible. Jeff simmons, its good to talk to you. Thanks for being on the programme. Thank you very much. Well, thats it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the programme. Dont forget, theres much more on the global economy on the Bbc Website or on the smartphone app. Thanks for watching. Well see you very soon. Bye bye. Hello. It was a bit of a chilly start to the day for some of us, particularly across central and eastern parts of england, with some mistiness around too. Any mist is now cleared away, and for the rest of today were looking at Sunny Spells pretty widely. Some rain in the forecast across parts of the northwest of the uk, and thats down to the fact that weve got low pressure moving in from the west. So this frontal system here will spill some rain in. But high pressure sitting to the east is really winning out and dominating the weather for many of us. So england and wales, dry, fine, long spells of sunshine. Just a bit of Cloud Building into the afternoon. For parts of Northern Ireland and scotland, especially for antrim and down, in towards the central belt, for instance, were looking at a bit more sunshine developing into the afternoon. Still a bit of rain for the northwest of scotland, in towards Fermanagh And Tyrone as well. Top temperatures in the mid to high teens for most of us, so feeling pleasantly mild out there. Through the evening hours, this area of rain will move in across the southwest of england and wales too. Could be the odd heavy burst, but becoming lighter and more patchy in nature as that cloud spills its way further eastwards. You might be hoping to get a glimpse of the Northern Lights tonight, but we will see quite a bit of cloud moving in. Best chance probably across parts of northern scotland. Now, through the day tomorrow, this frontal system edges its way slowly further eastwards. The Warm Front will tend to peter out through the day. So yes, a few spots of rain initially in the morning across parts of england and scotland, as well. Some heavier bursts for Northern Ireland, wales and the southwest of england as that Cold Front moves in during the afternoon. But i think some eastern areas will stay mostly dry for a good part of the day. Top temperatures tomorrow similar to what weve got today, especially in the south. With that breeze coming in from the south, mild air, 17, possibly 18 degrees, a little Bit Cooler across the north of scotland. Monday and tuesday, you can see these winds wrapping around an area of low pressure, so some showers on the way. But cast your eyes towards the south. This big area of rain here that is likely to be the remnants of Ex Hurricane kirk, could bring some wet and windy weather for some of us into the middle of the week. Now for monday, Sunny Spells and scattered showers moving in from the southwest. The odd heavy one, could be the Odd Thunderstorm around on monday as well. In between any of the showers, still a bit of sunshine, still reasonably mild with temperatures in the mid to high teens again, but its really through into the middle of the week, wednesday, possibly thursday. Although that Ex Hurricane may well stay to the south, it could still bring some pretty wet and windy weatherfor a time in the middle of the week. And then things turn colder again towards The End of next week. Live from london. This is bbc news. Another wave of explosions his spirit. Another wave of explosions his spirit. Whilst another wave of explosions his spirit, whilst in another wave of explosions his spirit, whilst in southern spirit, whilst in Southern Lebanon spirit, whilst in southern Lebanon Israel spirit, whilst in southern Lebanon Israel said spirit, whilst in southern Lebanon Israel said it. Spirit, whilst in southernl Lebanon Israel said it has targeted Lebanon Israel said it has targeted a Lebanon Israel said it has targeted a hezbollah Lebanon Israel said it has targeted a hezbollah Command Centre hamas has announced the death of a leader of its armed wing in a strike on the northern lebanese city of tripoli. Demonstrators have been gathering in cape town, as the first anniversary of the war approaches. In the us, republican Nominee Donald Trump returns to the city where he survived an assassination attempt
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