Welcome to americast. Hello, its sarah, and im in the bbc� s bureau in washington, dc. And its justin in the worldwide headquarters of americast in london, england. It is such a big question, isnt it, whether or not the american election is affecting the events in the Middle East, and vice versa, whether they will affect the outcome of the election . And a fascinating one, i think, because we often say that Foreign Policy doesnt really impact on us elections. But I Wonder if this is creating enough Background Noise that it will get into peoples heads. I dont think anyone� s going to go to the ballot box thinking, you know, i do or do not agree with the Administrations Policy on precisely the two State Solution between israel and palestine. But i do think it creates an atmosphere that will influence peoples thinking. So, if were answering that question first do events in the Middle East affect the american election before we get to looking at it the other way around, i think they do. I mean, the classic sort of conventional answer is they dont because americans dont care about abroad very much. And very few americans, lets be frank, would be able to place lebanon on a map. Although, of course, as weve discussed before, in certain key states like michigan, people are very well able to place those places on a map because they come from there and that that will matter a bit. But writ large, i think the danger, actually, for Kamala Harris is that there is just a sense of added chaos that was already, frankly, a sense of chaos, wasnt there around the world, but a sense of added chaos and jeopardy, which plays into particularly, frankly, low information voters thinking, oh, Donald Trump tells me that he can stop the chaos with a phone call, as he has literally done. And he can ring whoever, someone in iran and threaten them personally, and thatll be The End of the matter. And those sorts of voters may be more persuaded, i suppose, to turn out and vote for him, in these circumstances than they would in other circumstances. To be honest, i think its marginal, sarah. I mean, ijust think you can make too much of it because actually, most people will be voting on the economy and on immigration and all the things weve talked about ad nauseam, butjust on the margins, and the margins matter this year it could have an impact. Because as we keep saying, this election is going to be won or lost in the margins because it is so very, very tight and particularly in the key Swing States that will affect the outcome. And so i think youve put Yourfinger On Itjust in very, very well. There are people who care deeply about this. Youll remember the Student Protests we talked about a lot earlier this Yearfrom Pro Palestinian Undergraduates very, very upset about what was going on In Gaza. Theres obviously a big community who care very deeply about israel as well. And that stastoe biden� s hand a bit sometimes on how firm he can be with israel. But its this sense, i think, notjust of chaos in the world, but how america projects its image. And Donald Trump is very much the strong man, even the Bully Wholl be there on the World Stage, sorting things out in americas interest. And because the israeli government really do seem to be notjust ignoring, but defying american advice from the biden administration at the moment, it looks weaker. And there are people who just, the vibes, as weve talked about before in this election, just dont like the idea that america is less of a global presence than it used to be. And i think maybe this feeds into that sense. Yeah, i mean, shes had this line, hasnt she, Kamala Harris, which i know some people on the progressive left have been a bit nervous about where she says, i cant remember exactly what the word is, shes talked about americas military and its might in a way that has made some people on the progressive left of American Politics who dont much like the american idea of american military, might a bit nervy in the past. As Commander In Chief, i will ensure america always has the strongest, most lethal Fighting Force in the world. And i will fulfil our sacred obligation to care for our troops and theirfamilies, and i will always honour and never disparage their service and their sacrifice. Ijust think for her, you know, the problem for her, frankly, and weve talked about this as well, is shes just not out there. Shes doing rallies, kind of Set Piece speeches. And the events in the Middle East may mean that she has to be a bit gutsier, actually, about putting herself about, doing interviews where shes asked about these things, and actually giving detailed answers, potentially and heres the point, sarah I Wonder, potentially take her away from the biden Administration And Kind of forge her own line so that people can think, you know, this is a strong america. She has definite principles that shell adhere to. Shes willing to knock heads together, and shes got a plan. And i just think that at the moment you dont, you know, were asking about a bit about biden. Were asking about trump, and its fair to say that, you know, its unclear what trump would do, except, exactly as you say, this kind of strong guy image. But with Kamala Harris, itjust seems to me this is a challenge to her to get out and tell americans what would happen in the Middle East, as elsewhere, under her administration. Its doubly important, i think, because the audition to become Commander In Chief of the united states of america is Tougherfor A Female candidate. Itjust is. Theres never been a female president. Some people still have a problem wondering how a woman would sit in the Situation Room and Control Something like this. Im fascinated, though, when you talk about her mentioning americas military might. This is something thats been turned on its head in america now, just like the way the democrats and republicans have changed, you know, who the Working Class and the upper Middle Class support. Its democrats who are interested in using americas military weight around the world and intervening in conflicts, and republicans who recoilfrom the idea of being involved in anything overseas any more. Yeah, its very true. And its also the case, isnt it, that weve got weeks to go and we dont know how this is going to pan out, and there are all sorts of things, particularly, i suppose, the threat from iran of international terrorism, how that plays in. And I Wonder in those circumstances, whether it still plays to trump, as weve been kind of suggesting, this strong guy image, or actually whether his kind of Chaotic Approach To International Affairs makes people frightened that they dont want to go back there. In other words, i think the net effect might not be huge, mightn� t it . Because there are actually arguments you could have in both directions. And you can bring up one of the rare american elections, ithink, where we can point to Foreign Affairs having a significant impact. That 2004 election coming, of course, just three years after the 9 11 attacks and a very heightened sense of of terror, if there were, god forbid, to be something like that happen. I think it would be such a Testing Moment for each candidate. They would have to rise to that moment, and exactly how they did, how they responded would probably have a significant impact on what the result would be. And with Donald Trump, its just very difficult to say. With Kamala Harris, would she be able to stand up and articulate cleanly, quickly and firmly exactly what americas response was going to be and also reassure people at home . That would be an enormous test. The last time there was a significant effect on American Politics of Foreign Affairs, the last time it affected the outcome of an election, i think was 1980, wasnt it . Whenjemmy carter was running for re election, and, you know, back to iran, the iranian Hostage Siege was what did for him. With the steady unravelling of authority in iran and the mounting dangers that were posed to the safety of the hostages themselves, and the growing realisation that their early release was highly unlikely, i made a decision to commence the rescue operations plans. It was my decision to attempt the rescue operation. It was my decision to cancel it. When problems developed in the placement of our Rescue Team for a future rescue operation. | the responsibility is fully my own. I and you can see situations where, once again, if it becomes a conflict that that involves the us and iran, either very closely up against Each Other, or even in some sort of form of conflict, where that actually changes the whole dimension of the thing and further complicates and frightens, actually, americans into possibly this election becoming a more Foreign Affairs election. Theres a much larger group, though, justin, i think its worth reminding our americasters about evangelical christians here in the us who really strongly support israel. Its not just that there is a Largejewish Population and a largejewish vote who want the american administration to be backing israel as much as possible. Massive amount of christian voters also really, really solidly identify with israel. And thats one of the reasons why the room for manoeuvre is really quite difficult for democratic politicians in this. Weve talked a lot about the pro palestinian protesters. Theyre very noisy, but theyre a fraction of the number of voters that there are who would be easily upset if they thought that the us was backing away from full support of israel. Yeah, its a really interesting point, that, because you could take it even further, couldnt you . Not just evangelicals and obviouslyjewish voters themselves who have an interest in israel, a knowledge of israel, but actually for americans more generally, what has been going on In Gaza has made them queasy and made them wonder about the justice of it all. But, actually, if this becomes a fight between israel and iran, either metaphorically or in reality, then i think for a lot of americans, then it becomes a much easier choice, doesnt it . Israel is a democracy, its an ally of the united states. Iran, very obviously, has done enormous harm to large numbers of people, not least in syria, where its backed assad, and has fomented terrorism around the world, according to the american government and the british government as well. So, you know, when youre picking a kind of good guy and a bad guy, to put it in those terms, i think for a lot of americans, actually, if this becomes a conflict that involves iran, Ijust Wonder if the choice is a bit simpler. 0h, much, much simpler. Iran is, for many people, the Number One enemy. I mean, china is probably the Number One competitor or opponent, but iran is in the enemy camp, you know, possibly only with North Korea matching it. Even russia, theres a sense that, you know, you have to do business with them. But, no, iran is considered toxic by many, many voters, so that would be incredibly simple what side you take there, without the complications of whats been going on In Gaza. That would be much, much easier. But of course, thats a situation in which america then would find it even harder to constrain israels actions if they were worried about this conflict spiralling wildly out of control. If it becomes israel versus iran, then, yeah, all bets are off in terms of the americans asking israel to hold back. 0k, folks, im wearing a tie today, which is unusual, but im doing it in part at least, because We Arejoined by royalty, really. Christiane amanpour is the chief international anchor of cnn. Shes joined us before and told us things that are deeply fascinating. But im also personally in awe of her, because ive worked alongside her in the past. I wouldnt say quite to her level when it comes to working in the field, but ive certainly known her when she used to go around and dodge bullets. Does the american election have an impact on thinking in the region . In the widest sense, does it have an impact . Because we keep talking about whether it has an impact on the american election, whether war in the Middle East has an impact on the american election . And obviously, there are there are certain kind of small places, both geographical and intellectual, where it might. But Theres Plenty of americans wholl take no notice of it at all. But im just wondering the other way round, is there an impact . Its difficult to say. Obviously, all the candidates are going to use whats happening in the Middle East and in American Foreign Policy to beat Each Other up, clearly. The real question is, is america having an impact on whats going on, particularly this close to an election . And often, as you know, because youve covered, in election cycles, its often a sort of a lame duck period. Either theres a gigantic so called october surprise, which one candidate or the other thinks serves their purpose. 0rtheres a kind of laissez faire attitude, do no harm. Well, as all this harm, or however you want to describe it, is going on in the Middle East, many are saying in so many words that the us administration is awol. Awol when it comes to diplomacy, awol when it comes to actual impact on the players in the region. And really the biggest impact that america can have is on its most close ally, which is israel. And i have the lebanese prime minister, foreign minister, Rathertelling Me just this week that just before nasrallah was assassinated, he had got, they had got hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire. And then, clearly, netanyahu didnt want any part of it. And as he understood that there was potentially a ceasefire, he nonetheless gave his address to the un, saying that he had ordered the idf to keep fighting and to keep reaching its targets. And then nasrallah was killed, and thats launched this wave of escalation. As youre describing, the israelis have practically been humiliating Joe Biden and his administration when it comes to the diplomacy around this, just basically refusing to do what america is urging them to, even as america is continuing to supply them with the weapons and the Military Aid to allow them to prosecute these campaigns. Im really interested to know whether you think that the particular peculiar timing of now is one of the reasons why. So, youve gotJoe Biden, essentially a lame Duck President , not running for office again, managing not to have very much influence on netanyahu. But of course, they must be thinking in the israeli government about whos going to come in next. Donald trump might be more sympathetic, but hes unpredictable. Who knows . Kamala harris might take a different path. Is there a window now, between now and when the next president is sworn in at The End of january, where israel has a freedom to operate that it wont after theres a new president . You know, because this has been going on for a year now, a year before an american election, this same pattern has been going on vis a vis israel or the netanyahu government and the administration. The administration says dont do x, and the netanyahu Government Sort of pretends to say 0k, and then does it. Letsjust take the invasion of rafah. You remember the americans said dont invade rafah. They said, oh, well do a limited operation, which has rings, of course, of lebanon right now. But then they did invade rafah and its practically, you know, levelled, certainly huge swaths of it. So, look, it is clear that israel is acting in its own interest. And what are you hearing from people about the pressure that america has been putting on for the last year, for israel not to take its military actions too far and that it must be fairly extreme at the moment. Its pretty obvious here in washington, listening to officials in the White House and the State Department, that they are very much Urging Israel not to take action that will provoke a counterattack, willjust lead to an escalation further of a conflict between iran and israel. Everybody� s worst nightmare. Do you get a sense that theyre treating Americas Advice differently now . As an american official told me yesterday, a former State Department official, said america is in the passenger seat, period, end of story. And that is how its being viewed by elements of the us government, those who have resigned in protest of us policy over this year, and those in the rest of the region as well. So, by and large, that is what is the view of the united States Ability to affect the dynamics in the place where it used to be dominant. Lets face it, americas influence in the Middle East was huge, and it was always considered to be, quote unquote, even by american negotiators, israels lawyer. Rather than playing the so called, evenhanded, honest broker, even when it came to trying to negotiate this elusive peace between israel and the palestinians. So, just to say that america provides them with all their weapons, provides them with all their ammunition, provides them with the ability to defend themselves, and is clearly, you know, devoted to that and committed to that. This former official said to me on my show, so he said it publicly, there needs to be a huge upsurge in very, very intense shuttle diplomacy. And i said, well, thats been going on. He said, yes, but they have to tell netanyahu that, you know, they have to make the cost of defying the united states high, and they have not done that. So, that is the issue right now. And on that, christiane, its interesting, isnt it . Because Donald Trump, i mean, there are a range of outcomes with Donald Trump if hes elected president , we dont know who his people would be. There are all sorts of of of discussions, arent there, about how personal it could all get, how his Foreign Policy could go in a direction that even in his first term it didnt go. But with Kamala Harris, its kind of a bit of a blank slate, isnt it . And phil gordon, her national security adviser, who i knew Well In Dc and you will know, always struck me. Well, i mean, he is a kind of conservative guy with a small c, in the sense that hes quite cautious about the use of american power, but very well versed in the Middle East. And i just wonder whether there are incremental things that you could imagine her doing and tonal changes and things. But from what you hear, anything more than that . No, its very, very hard. And nothing, they will say nothing to put any light between them and israel, even though its had an impact on the american people. The american people, in particular, democrats, democratic voters, are upset with the biden Administration Policy on this. I dont believe theyll do anything, barring some massive escalation that brings iran into a full Scale War or whatever, before the election. And lets face it, you know, President Biden is against foreign wars. President trump in his time was not involved in foreign wars, and he keeps saying on the Campaign Trail that, you know, i wouldnt be involved in a foreign war. And i would go back, though. We know from the past what his policy towards israel has been. He went to israel, it was part of his first trip abroad, saudi arabia, israel, etc, early 2017. And there he empowered the far right, essentially the ben gvir ideology, the smotrich ideology. Remember, he practically handed the occupied West Bank over to them. He practically said that, go ahead, annexe it. In fact, we dont consider settlements to be a violation of international law, as the un says. Do you remember all that . And then they had to walk a lot of it back. And so, you know, moved the Embassy Tojerusalem from tel aviv. Basically did a whole load of things that previous american administrations refused to do pending a final settlement of the palestinian israeli conflict, because many of those areas are what the world and palestinians have set aside for their state. Christiane, to to take it back to what impact this might have on the american election. Im really interested to hear from you what you think the impact is on american voters. Ive noticed going around talking to people that Donald Trumps Talking Points that america shouldnt be involved in foreign wars and shouldnt be the worlds policeman, funding other crises as well, is coming through a lot, and notjust from Big Trump supporters. It really does seem to have changed americans minds about what their responsibilities on the World Stage are. So, looking at this conflict, its really interesting to try and work out how it might impact the election. 0bviously youve got some progressives who are very, very upset about whats happening In Gaza, protesting about that, refusing to vote for any democratic candidate. But when Joe Biden threatened to withhold some weapons from israel because they werent listening to him basically over how they were prosecuting the war In Gaza, there was such a backlash from republicans and democrats, who were essentially fearful of voters, that he had to change his mind quite quickly. And that made him look even more powerless. Is the biggest risk, do you think, in American Politics, for biden to look as though hes not supporting israel enough . You know, its a risk, of course, but it cant be attributed or laid at his door, because he has stood shoulder to shoulder with netanyahu from day one. He went in the immediate aftermath of the savagery of October 7 to israel. He hugged netanyahu, who is no friend of democrats, lets face it. Hes come several times to the congress to speak against democrats and their policies. Certainly obama, certainly did it again now under biden and takes to the un podium as well to do that. Christiane, you are as blunt as you always are. Its why we love having you on. Thanks so much. Real pleasure to talk to you. Thanks, justin. Thank you, sarah. Bye. Thats it for this Weeks Episode of americast. Thank you forjoining us as we count down to the election on november 5. I hope youlljoin us again. Bye bye. Hello. A Weather Front is approaching us, and that does mean a lot of cloud for many of us on sunday. Quite a few showers too, some of them will be heavy, but i think early in the morning, if youre closer to the North Sea coast, therell be some sunshine. Lets have a look at the satellite picture. Heres the Jet Stream pushing the Weather Front towards us, and that Weather Front brought a spell of very wet weather Saturday Evening for cornwall and devon. But i want to talk about the next few days and highlight this feature here. This Dartboard Low coming out of the tropics thats actually a hurricane which will transition into an extratropical Weather System or a mid latitude Weather System. And look at it. If you eyeball it, its ominously heading in our direction or is it . Well, actually, theres a lot of uncertainty. It could go to the south of us, taking its very strong winds and rain. It could just about clip us. And it looks as though midweek we could see some potentially bad weather across the south of the uk. But its still some days away and theres really a lot of uncertainty with this Weather System. So keep track of the weather forecast. Now, heres the here and now, or sunday morning, temperatures hovering around 10 degrees, so its not too cold first thing. And rather a lot of cloud with this Weather Front sweeping off the atlantic, remember, pushed by that Jet Stream. A lot of showers through the morning and lunchtime across western areas, around the irish sea, into northern ireland. Again, the further east you are, so closer to that North Sea coast, the drier it will be. There might be some sunshine around. But i want to show you whats going to happen later on Sunday Afternoon and evening. The showers in the south really could be quite heavy, downpours moving through parts of wales, into the midlands and also through the Peak District and into northern england, but clearing up towards the southwest later. Now, monday, i think the gaps between the showers will be bigger, but therell still be plenty of showers around, so youll need your brolly at some point or another, but at least well have the sunny spells. How about the temperatures on monday . At best, 17 in the sunshine. Most of us around about 15 or 16 degrees. So, thats monday. How about the week ahead . Well, we talked about that potentially bad weather coming to the south, but look at this. By The End of the week, well see colder northerly winds developing across the uk. And look at that Temperature Drop in london from 18 down to 12, cardiff from 17 to 11 degrees. So theres a real chill in the air coming in about a weeks time. Bye bye. Live from washington. This is bbc news. A huge explosion rocks the lebanese capital beirut, after the israeli military warns people in a southern suburb of the city to evacuate. This is the scene now live in beirut, where the clock has just hit 6am. You can see smoke still rising from an earlier strike. And, asi and, as i was saying. Picking up where he left off. Donald trump returns to the stage in butler, pennsylvania months after an attempt on his life there injuly. And the Democratic Republic Of The Congo begins a Vaccination Campaign against the Mpox Virus thats killed nearly 1,000 people this year. Hello, im carl nasman. We start in the Middle East, where there have been
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