Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622

Offer for aer lingus. A very warm welcome, live from bloombergs headquarters in london, i manus cranny. In a bid to keep his country in the euro, Alexis Tsipras has offered to meet most of the demands made by the european creditors in exchange for a bailout, 53. 5 billion euros. The package of cuts, tax increases almost mirrors the proposal put forward by creditors to weeks ago which were rejected by greek voters in the july 5 referendum. Alexis tsipras is insistent on restructuring debts. Guy johnson is in athens, hans nichols is standing in as well. Guy guy what is your take . Guy you could look at it in a number of ways, most obvious yes he accepted everything they creditors demanded. I suspect there will be changes along the way, yes, it feels as if he blinked. You can understand why the greek banks if they do not open on monday will be bankrupt. That is a major blow for an economy already flat on its back. He has signed up for the deal that was on the table and voted no any referendum in the referendum. Now he is accepting the deal. There is a story that effectively no vote the no vote gave him a mandate to take the deal. The greek people said they did not want to leave the euro, as a result they had to accept the deal. Greek parliamentarians in the building behind me be voting on this. There is no doubt this will pass , the only doubt is if it will pass with the full backing of syriza. Alexis tsipras is effectively the only leader in town at the moment. Will the government be able to amend reforms in front of it. A lot of things still to be decided, at the moment parliamentarians are behind us voting. Manus lets see how those votes go. They are speaking to reporters and saying there is still a need to assess reports, he is saying he is at the institution to accept greek proposals but broad greek support gives more credibility. We are seeing negotiating in a backdrop gives credit ability credibility. In terms of where we are, where are we on that story . Hans merkel was open to the idea of something to do with debt repulse filing, not debt free profiling. There is some room you could maybe have some sort of free profiling reprofiling. Enjoy the said debt sustainability is not feasible without the haircut. The imf is correct in saying that. He is saying there cannot be a haircut because they would infringe on the union. This morning we had reaction at parliament, we are hearing a great deal of skepticism from german members that athens actually means it, they will follow through. This captures the sentiment in germany, i fear many members will vote no. He said greek government is either cheating her own people or us again. That gets added here at it here. Germans have made clear their offer is no longer on the table. How to the accept that 26 document they campaigned against . I have not been able to square that situation. In the past, the headline looks great the numbers do not add up. Manus thats probably what they call politics. Thank you very much. That brings us to our twitter question. Have the last 10 days been a waste of time . Greece. One man and his team who really do focus on perspective and the possibilities is the head of global Asset Allocation at ubs. Here we are rbs is saying grexit will not happen. Where are we in this debate . It looks like the past 10 days we are back of what was put on the table on the 26th. I think we are back there but in a constructive way. We have a much more focused political side in germany positioning themselves what will happen in the weekend. We also have a leader in germany saying there is room to negotiate. There is technically room in the document, it is a question of commitment. The stronger leader has a chance. There is a 5060 chance that greece will be out next week. Our conviction is what matters is the ecb is with us and they prevent contagion. Manus italy, i know from an investment perspective is on the top of your agenda spreads widened, when italians into their budget, those spread, the ecb has to act what kind of action can they do . This week has been nice in that way. We have seen statements from the ecb that say they are ready. Today and yesterday they tightened, that shows us economic recovery and be in place for the ecb mandate is clear, volatility in Financial Markets is deflationary, ecb is here to fight deflation. They have support from the european code of justice, but they hardly needed need it. They are doing the right thing by standing ready. Manus the ecb and the greek banks are linked. You have two versions, one is optimistic, i paraphrase i wrote optimistic, the other is grexit. If greece manages to do a deal and stay in you are 50 in the greek banks still need some kind of major capital boost mergers. What is your scenario for the banks . That is the funny thing, you cannot vote capital into a bank. In a positive scenario the recapitalization would come by a title funds which might need to be bridged over political unity in europe. There would be money flowing that way. I think it is more interesting for us in the negative. In a negative scenario, that is where we will be giving of the gains from yesterday the longterm road, the recovery continues, we will have the greek banks recapitalized not by euros, but another form. In that scenario it is important there is no recapitalization. The european banks are protected. Manus in the ultimate scenario the new drachma, currency whatever that is how much of the devaluation one packet says 60 as you guys look at your scenario, what do you envision . People keep coming up with deadlines. I keep asking everyone to not put up deadlines, this is more complicated. I dont think anyone can explain how greece will leave. We are saying it is 50 60 that greece will leave. Will they leave himself . Will they leave themselves . We dont know. A devaluation of less than 30 makes no sense, why do it . You are probably facing a 30 40 50 and you are facing a restructuring of the economy. That would be fine painful, the pressure is on to avoid that. Manus you will stay with me. We will talk china after this short break. Here is a look at what else is on a radar. The shanghai, cause it index enjoyed its biggest johnsons 2008. Almost half of chinas total listed shares remain suspended from trading. John kerry said that westerners are not in a hurry to reach a deal with iran. We will not rush and we will not be rehashed rushed. All that we are focused on is the quality of the agreement. That is what we will what will continue to define our work. Manus ryanair shares jumped as they agreed to accept iags offer. It removes one of the last hurdles in the British Airways owners quest to add the irish airways to its portfolio. Offices and schools have been closed in taiwan a typhoon approaches the island. The government has issued the highest level of alert for the storm which is expected to make landfall tonight or saturday morning. Just a reminder, make sure you stay tuned to bloomberg this weekend. Our show highlights the top interviews throughout the weeks coverage this episode features coverage from reese in crisis. Greece and prices. You can catch that on saturday and sunday 12 noon 4 00 p. M. It is all covered on bloomberg. Some live pictures, this is air buses electronic plane. It will cross over the english channel. This is a journey that the plane maker hopes will be an important First Step Towards eventual commercial use. All great things start with very small jobs jobs. Stay with the pulse. Stock markets in china plays much smaller role in terms of size than they do in a country like the u. S. It went out quickly, it is coming down quickly, my sense is that Chinese People should be used to wild gyrations in the stock market this is not the first one, it may not be the last. I think it is a sideshow. Manus that was the imf chief economic all of your bill olivier blanchard. Lets talk to caroline, you have the context. This is giving volatility a whole new meaning. Caroline over the course of a month we have lost close to 4 trillion in terms of value on these particular markets. This is the onemonth chart of the shanghai composite. It has been falling by 33 lower over the course of a month. The government has been rushing to try and extend what is going on. I want to focus on the sudden turnaround in the last two days. The biggest rally since 2008 up 10 . What did the government have to unleash to achieve that . We managed to see a turnaround but that is with half of the stocks halted, major shareholders and owner of more than 5 of a share, you are banned selling that for the next six months. The turnaround may have legs. This is what some are starting to see. Yes, 4 trillion have been wiped off of that stock market. Fidelity investments have some of the biggest funds outside of Mainland China in the world. Fidelity investments are confident of some recovery. They see an economic recovery coming in china which is not priced in at the moment. We are starting to hear a myriad of voices saying this. Goldman sachs says you could add 27 in the next 12 months. This is the larger caps. Interestingly will this affect the economy as a whole . Will stock market volatility held back 9 million individuals . Investors we spoke to said no. Not one points not. 1 effect due to this volatility. It seems hopefully it will not destabilize growth in china. Manus lets get deeper with the head of global Asset Allocation at ecb. My point is this i dont put credence in this 10 rally. 50 of the stock does not trade, there are a lot of people left with a lot of stock hung out to dry, mia skeptic . Probably. There is no need for china to go out and tell everyone they will do whatever it takes, they have shown that. They do not want to see the spiral out of control. I do not think it is to stick significant if we are up or down 2 . We dont want to see a continuous decline. Our mission is to grow wealth the overall message is things in china go externally fast, we have seen the market go up dramatically. It has not had a big effect on the economy going up so going down should not have a big effect as long as the leaders can stop it. Manus they had acted, about 19 billion in terms of support for the market this debate says it will not have a great deal of impact in terms of domestic growth of gdp. I had mark farber on the other day and he said china is going to 4 . It can have an impact that is why it is important to stop before it spills over to other sectors of the economy. Whether they stop it here or 5 down from here is not the key. The key is if these measures are not enough, should you expect more, yes. They will be ready probably in the end to use whichever part of the reserve they need. Manus where does that put the wealth position in terms of your exposure to china at the moment . The pressure for us to be on chinas domestic comes off. We are currently underway in emerging markets. We think there are pockets of interesting things happening but there is still too much to sell. Manus this is where you leave, iron ore volatility is at the highest ever. The china story is playing out across a whole spectrum, what is the mean for europe . The whole basis of Automakers Says it is about china. We basically took all of the commodities out 1. 5 years ago. Not because we knew what would happen oil prices, but because we thought it would be volatile. What does that mean for automakers, they get to steal . They get cheap steele . It means you can no longer consider the s class the primary selling point of the mercedes. You need a Broader Group of people in europe buying it. Manus we have had corrections and a lot of european markets, is that an opportunity for you to reenter cash . We base loans on the ecb. Manus it will save us all. That is the head of global Asset Allocation at ubs. Ryan air is set to sell its stake in aer lingus, after the board broke with their vote. It was a red hot sticky. Ryan air really question its position in iag. A woman breathed a sigh of relief our very own carry. Finally, he is selling nearly 30 . Generally the shares are responding positively to this. You never know it michael, he can be a little bit of a wild card. It depends on what side of the bed he woke up on, generally he does what is good for shareholders. It is good for ryanair, they make a small profit. They are ready to move on. There is a small hurdle that the European Union needs to sign off. It is not completely 100 done. We are very close to this point. Manus for iag what does this mean . One of the big things will be they are thinking of dublin as another runway for heathrow. It will be years before heathrow gets another runway. Iag and aer lingus will definitely be making a push to focus on the fact that you can clear customs in dublin, go to the u. S. , build on their transatlantic powerhouse that they have developed and focus on what they have been doing so well. Manus we will carry the aviation thing forward. This is the airbus experimental electric plane. It has taken off. This is of course a project run by aer lingus, it is an electric plane taking off from the u. K. It is flying across the english channel, a journey that the plane maker said was a huge step. Can this go into commercial production . There you go. Up next making a drachma out of a crisis, just how come located with a currency change be for greece . Manus welcome back live from bloombergs European Headquarters in london, i manus cranny. Shanghai composite index has enjoyed the biggest jump since 2008. The rebound comes after a flurry of government measures to stem growth. Almost half of chinas listed shares remain suspended from trading. John kerry says that westerners are not in a rush to reach a Nuclear Agreement with iran. It comes after highlevel talks in vienna which have failed to break the deadlock. John kerry we will not rush, and we will not be rushed. We will not let ourselves be rushed through any aspect of this. All that we are focused on is the quality of the agreement. That is what we will continue that is what will continue to define our work. Manus greece has made an 11th hour bid to stay in a euro in exchange for 53. 5 billion euro bailout. The Prime Minister will insist that the countries that needs to be made more manageable. The package faces its first hurdle. Small bribes have been a part of everyday life in greece for years. Whether it is to secure a doctors appointment, or get a permit approved, bloomberg spoke to citizens on the streets of athens to see the tradition if the tradition is still going strong. It was a problem. It is a problem. 440 or 50 years for 40 or 50 years. You cannot go anywhere. Not to the hospital. Not to services. I pay when i go to the doctor. It is likely more money for work. If you go to hospital, there are many doctors who asked for it. Ask for it. I dont think this will change the situation. If you do not give the money you can dive. Die. Grexit this is a big problem for society this is a big problem for society. This is between me and the doctor. No one knows. We must Pay Authority we have the fear to do this. So this continues. Manus todays developments in greece reduced the odds of an and it from the euro for now. Recent history suggests that it would be no small fee feat. Joining us now is alex webb. The process of introducing a new currency, i just had a similar conversation with mas he says it would not happen immediately, but you question that. I spoke to a company in munich they printed the euro on behalf of germany and have been doing so since the 1820s or 1920s they say its between six months and two years. Six months is the starting point from saying it and getting it on the street. Depending on various factors how much you educate the public, how much debate there is it could take as long as two years. Manus it has taken five years to actually agree on what is going on in greece. Do they have the capacity to make these this currency themselves . Of course. You are right, it is a semantic, physical issue. They have a Printing Press on the outskirts of athens. They were the only national meant with permission to print the 10year note. They could go to private, best companies private companies. Manus what makes greeces situation unique . What are the possible implications of this . Alex the difference is whether it be Eastern European countries who ditch the soviet currencies or the deutsche. The currency would be in circulation in the rest of the eurozone. Incentive for greek businesses is to adopt to adopt the drachma diminishes. Why would they take the drachma when it could he value when they could take the euro, a more stable currency. We have seen, they put a stop on how much money you could take out, but what will he thanks be will be banks be . All of those issues need to be resolved, there are no simple answers. Manus thank you very much. There are no simple answers when it comes to greece. You can pick up his story on bloomberg. Com. All of our boys are on the ground there for the greek story. Mark here we are at wimbledon. I will be asking nigel curry how much winning wimbledon adds to a tennis players brett breath. Who will win today . I think that was murray. We will see you in a minute. Manus welcome back to the pulse. The mens semi finals were held today at wimbledon. We go to the all england lawn and tennis croquet club. Here is a look at wimbledon by the numbers. Manus those are the numbers. What does winning the title add to a players brand value. Mark barton is at w 19 x w19. Mark here i am here i am nigel, thank you for joining us. I remember talking to nigel in 2013, all sorts of figures were being banded about about how much would this title add to his value . Last year, prize money plus endorsements, 19 million, why did he not make as much . I think he got off to a bad start. He did not maximize the income he could have gotten. He was waiting he had existing contracts to get rid of. Now he is moving into the bigleague. I think if he won it would take him in to the top. Mark Roger Federer is top of the pile, more than 50 million. Can you move into that racket . Not quite. Federer has been in the top tier of tennis for a long time, if you dominate a sport like tennis for that length of time you are really upping your earnings to possibly 50 million a year. Mark does murray embrace the sponsorship . Does he play the game . No. I dont think he does, he is much better than he was, he is Getting Better more mature older, he handled it better. Federer is brilliant, he knows exactly what to do for the sponsors. Murray is good, but could get better. I think you will get better. Mark the three big british sportsmen, hamilton, murray mcelroy, who do you think over the term of a career

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