Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240622 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance June 22, 2024

Right now we need to get you caught up here and here are the top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie Alexis Tsipras has run up the white flag. Calling for immediate action to a with a bailout. Plus, greece will have to transfer 55 billion worth of assets to a holding company. German chancellor Angela Merkel says it is about time for greece to take responsibility. Angela merkel trust has indeed been lost but we all know that what will the important is to implement what we have agreed on doing. Vonnie tsipras own party mutinied when he asked for the endorsement of a new austerity program. A new deal on the Iran Nuclear Program could be announced as soon as today. Negotiators want to stop iran from making nuclear weapons. Any deal would still have to be reviewed by congress. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell told fox an agreement would be a difficult sell. The crowded field for the republican president ial nomination gets bigger today. Scott walker will join the race or he became the first governor in u. S. History to defeat the recall election. Contract talks begin between the uaw and the big three automakers. The union wants to reduce the pay gap between new hires and workers with longer tenure. The industry says the twotier system is why automakers have been able to add tens of thousands of jobs in the last four years. And golf, Jordan Spieth heads to this weeks british open on a hot streak. He won the john deere in a playoff. It would make him the worlds topranked golfer. Those are top headlines. Tom let me get to a data check right now. You are seeing a celebration, a pullback here. Futures up 15. Right now the euro, we almost got to 1. 12. We pulled back nicely, one point 1081 1. 1081. I want to get through this so we can get to hans nichols in brussels. The vix that is where we close on friday. The big news is that the swiss franc does not move. That is an indicator of the doubt and the mystery of what is going on in brussels. This goes back to the tension over the weekend of finland and slovakia. Here are slovakian Bank Deposits from 2005. Up, up, and away. Nice solid growth. You compare slovakia to greece and you can see the train wreck of greece as well. Brendan over the weekend, another member of the schauble block, finland and estonia, these are countries that have dealt with their own Pension Reforms that have done the lowest work in the past 20 years and are looking at greece and wondering why they should help out. Tom is ireland part of that block . Brendan know ireland is somewhat no, ireland is somewhat different. They have been a little more receptive to the idea of changing the structure of the debt. Tom now we need to go to brussels. After marathon meetings, the modest chaos of this monday. Olivia sterns and david gora will come to us from athens through surveillance this morning. Hans nichols is in brussels and joins us now. If you were to speak to a Family Member about the madness of the last three days and they said to you where are we right now, give me a hint where are we right now . Hans sort of the end of the beginning. We have a lot more to go. We are still in limbo because we do not know if athens will be able to pass these things, and we do not know how far mr. Supers will travel at home. He has trouble mr. Tsipras will travel at home. He has traveled far. Will he accept the things he has agreed to hear . They are quite extraordinary. Tom brendan has a statement that has been printed out only moments ago. Who put a gun to greeces head . Who do you say did that . Hans more than one person in the room. We would be remiss if we reported it was just germany ganging up on greece. We understand holland benevolence was quite firm as well. We are getting a picture we understand how holland, netherlands was quite firm as well. We are getting a picture. It looks like greece is going to lead. The and up rescuing it in large part because of the 50 billion euro fund. It is housed in athens, not luxembourg, the big victory for tsipras. Brendan the note that came out of the summit reads, the euro summit takes note of the urgent financing reads of greece urgent financing needs of greece. There is a distinction between that and the possible much larger bailout. How do they make sure that these very immediate financing needs are met . Hans that is what they are doing in brussels in the next couple of hours. The bridge financing, the shortterm financing. It does seem to me i do not want to say a rounding a error because the numbers are not small. We still do not know whether politically it is viable. Will it survive in athens . We simply do not know. Yes, there is optimism. Yes, there is clarity, but we do not know if there will be clarity from athens. Tom i am baffled about where we are by wednesday. Brendan we are going to have Olivia Sterns in athens helping to understand whether or not Alexis Tsipras can get it done. Also, the former Prime Minister of belgium, current rockstar on the internet, will talk to us about what happens next within the institutions of europe. This is bloomberg surveillance. A lot going on. Good morning. Tom a snapshot of athens. It is the athens that brussels knows so well. This is the athens of people lined up at atm machines. Good morning worldwide particularly on the continent of europe. Rendon . Brendan . Brendan a European Parliament debate went viral. The former Prime Minister of belgium scolded Alexis Tsipras and made the classic liberal case on how to fix greece. He joins us now. You discussed a vision of a reformed, functioning Greek Economy. Does this agreement get us there . Partially, i should say. It is not perfect what is on the table now, but at least for the first time, the greek government is agreeing to do a number of Structural Reforms, a system organized by the Political Parties in greece. Also starting by abolishing a number of privileges, like is the case for shipping, the trade industry and for the greek islands. So it is a start. It is a start, and what is more important, we can fix now the Greek Economy and greece without greece going out of the monetary union. Brendan from your perspective what is the most important part of the agreement, the structural reform or the promise of future austerity through pension reform . Guy verhofstadt the most important is now Structural Reforms because we got already all the austerity measures in the past, and it did not help to solve the greek crisis. For the first time you see also reforms opening a number of markets, downsizing the public sector. Also ending another also ending a number of privileges that exist in the society, and certainly one of the most important things, ending the corruption because there is one billion euro going into corruption every year in greece. So i think it is a good start. The proof of all of this is in the eating. It shall be necessary that the greek government is implementing all of this, and that is the discussion in the eurogroup and in the u. S. Summit this night, that is to have additional guarantees and neck and isms so that we can be sure that at the end and mechanisms so that we can be sure that at the end greece can have reform. Brendan can Alexis Tsipras regain the trust of his negotiating partners, or is brussels quietly hoping that it fails . Guy verhofstadt we hope that he can deliver now. He could a few days ago, you remember that 251 of the members of parliament voted in favor of this, and i am quite sure that this majority including opposition parties in greece can sustain. That said, all this gives for us a lesson for europeans. This is not the way to govern a Currency Union. We need to fix it in another way. Having these nightly debates between 19 ministers of finance and the heads of state. That is not the way to do it in the future. Tom the headlines are garnered over the weekend by finland and slovakia, and i am struck by the cultural distinctiveness of each of these nations. Belgium has an absolute history and culture that is about politics, is about diplomacy and discussion within a nation. What can the greek people learn from the belgium from the belgian people about getting forward in such a fractious moment . Guy verhofstadt we did these reforms already a few decades ago. I can tell you in the 1950s and the 1960s of the last century belgium had Political Parties weaving and dealing having clients as their electorate, and we managed to change that mostly in two decades. And we became a modern country in the core of the european union. That is also possible for greece. I am pretty sure that mr. Tsipras, if he uses his majority , the mandate that he has from the parliament and from the people in greece, the citizens he can manage to do so. We can push him in the right direction. Brendan you say that this is not the way to govern a Currency Union just now. So obviously changes have to be made to the eu treaty. How do you get from where we are right now to the possibility of a new treaty when it was so painful just to get to lisbon the last time around . Tom Guy Verhofstadt that is more and more proof of the fact that we need to have a number of changes in the next year. First to solve the british issue. If we want to solve the british issue, maybe some treaty changes are going to be needed. Also to fix the economic governance in the eurozone is absolutely necessary. We have seen in the last hours the rising party from finland, and increase they were governing mainly the eurozone outcome are in that is not possible. We had to get rid of unanimity inside our treaties and inside the decisions in the eurozone. It is impossible to manage to govern a Currency Union based on unanimity where one country or even one small party in a government of one country can block the outcome. We need to come forward with a real economic government in the eurozone and we need to establish a treasury in this eurozone, and we need also, i think, a common governing depth redemption fund. What is a far better way to resolve this crisis than these bilateral battles . Brendan thank you very much guy. Guy verhofstadt. It is time for our twitter question of the day. It is the only possible question we could have asked. Is this the last bailout for greece, if it in fact comes through . Let us know bsurveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Im tom keene. Brendan greeley and vonnie quinn with us this morning. Lets get to the morning must read. I waited to get important announcement out of brussels this morning. A blistering known for ing bank a blistering note for ing bank tom that really drives forward the dow. We have seen the markets with the swiss franc really not moving. Brendan the most important word of the weekend was trust. They actually figured out how to break down the impasse and get to step by step by step by step trust building. Seeing as how really, Angela Merkel went into the weekend saying trust, trust. We have trust and verify. Tom we will digress right now and touch on europe with the chief is negative officer of kbw. The oddest thing is, it is no different than the star making machinery in hollywood. Yet throw out any index and 90 of them flunk. The kbw banking index has become the basic watch of American Banking. First, to launch the sequel if you will. The bkx deux. We are very excited about an announcement we made this morning ourselves, and our partners at nasdaq, launching the global bank index. This will be comprised of 28 of the 30 globally systemic important banks across the world. With developments over the weekend, developments in china. It is time for an index like this to exist. Tom within that is the excitement, we are greece greece, greece this morning, but the backstory is that europe is doing pretty well. Thomas if you look at the biggest banks around the world, we are recommending more european banks than we are american largecap banks. We think right now that europe is where america was several years ago, and we think stocks of the largest banks in europe are cheaper and more attractive to investors. Vonnie tell us about the components of this index. How many are american and how many are not american . Thomas the first biggest are the american banks, then the secondbiggest are the eurozone banks. Then he goes to asia, where we have two chinese banks. What is most important is that 28 banks in our index comprise 45 of the world hot Banking Industry market of the worlds Banking Industry market cap. That shows you how large these things really are. In china, 34 of that market are the banks. Tom are you jamie dimons best friend . Thomas co. As you know, we have been focusing on the challenger banks around the world. They are doing better, growing faster. They are more profitable and their stocks have done better. We are on top of those. We would rank the u. S. Challenger banks. We like the larger european banks. Bnp trades at 85 of book value. We like that better than the american banks, the largest american banks. And third we put the largest american banks. Brendan we will talk about the challenger banks. In this index we will we have been talking about the larger banks. Barclays, Deutsche Bank, going through restructuring. Showing how hard it is to be a universal bank. This index that you have is it a moving target . Thomas we are going to use for now the banks that have been designated as these global ones. 28 of the 30 have securities equities that trade. We cannot put the other two in. Some are behind the curve. Deutsche bank, there are still questions of what they will do with their capital account, but many of the unders are many of the others are merging. Tom should mr. Jenkins have been shown the door . Should mr. Jain have been shown the door . How come those guys were shown the door . Thomas it has a lot to do with the fact that Deutsche Bank, one of the Regional National champions, is behind the curve. Tom is barclays find the curve . Thomas barclays i do not believe is as far behind the curve. If you have not solved for your capital account at this stage of the game, it suggests that something has happened. Tom i love Thomas Michaud because he has answered tough questions. Gary shilling will join us. Stay tuned Olivia Sterns from athens. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance from new york city lets go to top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie there is no facesaving compromise for greece this time. After an allnight are getting session in russells, alexis in brussels, Alexis Tsipras gave in. He tried to put a good face on things. Alexis tsipras the deal was difficult, but we have prevented the pursuit of a transfer of public property abroad. We have prevented the plan of financial asphyxiation and the collapse of the financial system, a plan that was designed up to its last detail perfectly. Vonnie tsipras still needs the Greek Parliament to sign off on the deal. Over the weekend, his own party rebelled when presented with new austerity measures. In vienna, negotiators on the verge are on the verge of wrapping up a new deal with Irans Nuclear program. Congress should have to approve any deal. Mitch mcconnell says it would be a tough sell. In a sign that she is seeing growing support for Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton is urging higher wages for all americans. It is her first major policy speech since announcing her president ial candidacy in april. Sanders is drawing enthusiastic crowds with his populist message as he challenges clinton for the democratic nomination. Shares will be offered at 3 less sony shares will be offered at 3 less in a stock sale. The company is going into a growth phase, as promised. History repeated itself at wimbledon. Just like last year djokovic beat Roger Federer. It is his third title at wimbledon. Roger federer has won seven championships there. On saturday, Serena Williams won her sixth wimbledon singles title. She will now head to the u. S. Open with her chance to win the grand slam. Seems like nobody wins just one anymore. Tom a lot of drama over the weekend. Also, Roger Federer is such a crowd favorite. It is amazing how he has the crowd. A blistering fivepage note on greece dovetails perfectly with what we are seeing in the Financial Markets and what we will see in athens. The greecegermany spread is in with a vengeance, but nowhere near the complacency of one year ago. That, as the estonian Prime Minister said, trust is renewable. Maybe not in athens. Athens will be the crucible for the next three days. Olivia sterns is in an ugly greece right now and a very difficult athens. Let me go to the tsipras agreement. How will this be greeted by his party and those that oppose him in athens . Olivia tom, with both relief and anger. Relief that the worstcase scenario has been a verdict. A few days ago we thought that what happened last night to need that greece was going to be forced out of the eurozone. That appears to have been averted, but there is a lot of anger in his hearty, a sense that in his party, a sense that Alexis Tsipras surrendered. A feeling here that tsipras surrendered because essentially the package of austerity measures that he agreed to, by every way you measure it, is much harsher than the referendum that was voted against. Tom Brendan Greeley was mentioning earlier tha

© 2025 Vimarsana