Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20240622 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown June 22, 2024

Happening with greece first. A vote is taking place in the Greek Parliament, mr. Sippers saying that mr. Tsipras saying that he had a knife to his throat. This is one of the most exciting elements of the story the imf. It really favors significant debt relief for greece. This is what greece has been arguing. Friday, we get the vote in the bundestag. How problematic is that going to be . We will talk to the river party and greece later on the program. How does it see this deal . We will find out a little bit later. We will assess it from a markets point of view this is eurodollar. This hasnt moved over the last couple days as we start to factor in the idea that we could see the imf having a problem will that move up further . Yellen was on the hill today. That will be interesting as well. The other big story is very much whats happening with china. Secondquarter gdp data beating estimates, policymakers stepping up supports. Lets find out whats going on yvonne man is in hong kong standing by. Yvonne bad news, good news . Talk us through the Market Reaction. Yvonne good morning. We really havent seen too much Investor Confidence in the stock market. We are snapping out of that 13 rebound we saw earlier last week, coming back from the lunch break in the shanghai composite down 2 . It has been led by the industrials, the utilities, and we are starting to see big losses here when it comes to those big movers its talk about 24 stocks that went up 10 . You have close to 200, more than 180, firms that have been down today. Here we can see consumer goods are down three point 5 , goods and services down 6 telecoms financials, industrials all in the red. Pboc is talking about the sentiment after we had excited gdp figures, there was a lot of speculation that the pboc wont be stepping in to help stand this anymore. The fundamentals of the economy are seeing some slight signs of stabilization. I want to mention that the stock calls are down to 689, still suspended in trading this morning about 24 overall. A pretty volatile day here today. It is coming up slightly from the losses that we saw a earlier this morning. They were talking about how they still see value in china shares and they expect the share price to rise there are some reports coming out saying that 60 of analysts surveyed expect the shares to gain the Third Quarter. Guy amazing. Thank you. Lets go to tom in beijing. 7 the market was expecting 6. 8 . Is this down to the stimulus that has then put in question mark can we believe this number . Tom i think there are a couple factors at work. Firstly, this is the impact of the stimulus trying to cut Interest Rates four times now. The first was at the end of 2014 they made it easier for banks to lend and refinanced hundreds of millions of youuan. We are seeing Infrastructure Spending up strongly, and that is why we saw industrial output accelerating in june. The second factor is a little bit harder to estimate. We think there will probably be a significant boost to secondquarter gdp from whats been going on the Financial Sector. The equity market is on a tear in the Second Quarter, shanghai composite raising very strongly. There was explosive growth in turnover, a huge amount of trading volume. In the First Quarter we saw that passing to an increase in that Financial Sector. Our suspicion is we will see that story repeated. The problem for chinas government, then, Going Forward is to the extent that it was the Financial Sector bolstering growth in the Second Quarter, we have had a significant correction in the equities market and can it be sustained into the second half of the year . Guy i guess that leads very on nicely to the question assuming that policy start to fade is that what we can expect . Tom thats not my expectation. I think the real economy remains quite brittle. If you look at real estate, which is the main domestic contributor to demand sales are up, but new construction continues to contract. If you look at export, we saw exports going back into growth in june, but low singledigit growth, and overseas sales was nothing to get excited about. The governments has two choices Going Forward they can ease through cutting Interest Rate in providing stimulus at home or they can ease by allowing the yuan to have a competitive boost. So far, they have chosen the domestic channel. They have taken the view that allowing the yuan to depreciate will come at a significant cost in terms of risking capital. Guy i think we may have a small technical problem. Anyway, thanks, tom. Bringing us up to speed. Lets bring it closer to home just when you thought you were done with greece, it turns out youre not. Alexis tsipras starts a bid for a bailout, revolts within his own party, struggling to get off the ground as International Officials asked questions about the Financial Sector. Speaking on National Television last night, mr. Tsipras said he had only agreed to the deal with a knife to his neck. Let me tell you the truth and allow me not to paint a beautiful picture. The night before the previous one was a bad night for europe. It was not a nice that shall be remembered in the future where steps were made toward the value of European Solidarity and democracy. The result of the euro summit and the result of the eurogroup was the results coming from a pressure put on a country and all the people who are in a democratic way. We need to go toward the wishes of the most powerful people in europe within circumstances of blackmail and suffocation. We had to terms on the table first, specific requisites or go bankrupt. There was also another version referring to a german finance minister but leave the eurozone upon an agreement. Guy Alexis Tsipras talking about the bad night in which he accepted demand for federal austerity to unlock the bailout. Will it get done . We will wait and see. He is trying to get it passed by the current government. There is speculation that we could get a reshuffle. Our correspondence are on the ground with the latest. David, lets start with you. How is todays vote going to go . David it will be a very compressed 12 hour period for the parliament to convene then we are expecting a vote at 10 00 tonight a very short. Of time in which to get this plan through the parliament. This was his chance to make his case to the people for the first time to talk about many points of his plan specific taxes talking about raising the sales tax. He called it irrational but something he had to do he talked about pension reform and the retirement age. Interestingly, he said that is something that we should have done on our own. Retiring at 50 is not a progressive policy. I think as soon as the ela and the financing from the ecb is back in the picture, which will take place after we vote for the new agreement so the banks are not opening this week . They will not open this week. They will open just after the ela is back in the picture. David theres the economy minister talking to Olivia Sterns about the capital that persists. That is still a great concern to athenians. This is something that is still very much pushing down the economy. Guy lets turn our attention to whats happening in the wider story, away from athens. Hans, let me bring you in. The imf is making headlines is this a done deal . How serious are these concerns . Do you think it will have a big impact in that german vote . Hans they are serious the imf is bulking of the terms that were set by the creditors. They are calling for a radical debt relief. The germans had always wanted it was always a requirement for Angela Merkel at the imf be at the table. The new sustainability analysis was out over the weekend. Here is what the imf had to say greeces debt can now only be made sustainable, with debt relief measures that go far beyond what europe has been willing to consider so far. Greases debt greeces debt will soar to almost 200 in the next three years. It was projected that it will be at 170 next july and it will only get worse and they need to do something about the overall debt relief. There are a couple suggestions the imf made here are a few. This first one could be palatable extending maturities roughly 30 years. That is not a simple extension that is 30 years plus a significant grace period. It would mean a fund from germany, actual cash going out the door, into greeces treasury to help them pay down the debt. The other one they have is deep upfront haircuts. That last 1 creditors and europe have been clear that it is not something they will go with. The imf held up the possibility that they will not contribute the remaining 16. 4 billion, that they would withhold that. The irony in all that in those latenight negotiations mr. Tsipras was insisting that the imf would not be brought back into his country. There has been very harsh language about the imf and it turns out that the imf could be mr. Tsiprass biggest advocate. Guy more twists and turns. Thank you. That brings us to the question of the day given whats been happening, given the economic environment that exists in greece right now, did tsipras actually have a knife at his throat when he was forced to sign the deal . It is an interesting line that he delivered in his televised address. What do you do when the deal that was delivered is it ever going to be viable . Give us your views and let us know. Join us on twitter. Coming up in a couple minutes we will talk about chinese gdp coming in ahead of forecast. Investors not cheered, worried about the fact that they may get less stimulus in this massive economy from beijing. We will talk about that when we come back. Guy good morning, its 6 17 here in london. Before the stories you need to know this morning. Greases parliament will vote today on the measures agreed with european creditors on monday. The passing of the legislation, which is a key condition of the bailout, is unlikely to be blocks, but members of Alexis Tsiprass party could withhold support. This comes as the imf says greece needs relief far beyond what european creditors have been willing to consider including deep cuts to the values of its sovereign debt. The bank of japan has held off from bolstering monetary stimulus. It will continue to expand its Monetary Base of ¥8 trillion. The central bank also lowered its inflation projection for the fiscal year through march, 2016. That, of course, is well below its 2 target. Copy that. We are at telemetry. [applause] guy those are the celebrations last night at nasa Mission Control as new horizons reestablished contact after its historic flyby of pluto. The radio signal arrived at 6 30 p. M. Eastern time after it had been out of contact for 32 hours. They collected measurements from the dwarf planet. The first batch of data will arrive on earth later today, with images of pluto, 10 times sharper than the pictures sent back earlier yesterday. We have had further evidence that chinas economy is stabilizing as it shall growth figures beat expectations. Gdp was 7 higher than the year earlier beating economist estimates of 6. 8 . Exports were also up, suggesting government stimulus measures are beginning to take effect. Lets get an analysis of that china gdp data, on what it means for investors. Joining me now is the emerging markets strategist good morning, darius. The market didnt like it. Darius they did not seem to like it because investors concluded that we cannot hope for massive further monetary stimulus from china there is no need to do much more now that the economy has stabilized. Investors decided, ok, then perhaps the monetary conditions were tighter than we hoped for. At the same time, other markets reacted positively. The stress in the currency market in the form of higher options volatility has declined in the cost of insuring against appreciation has eased, as well. They see it as a return to economic normalcy s. Guy are they correct in that assumption . Dariusz most of the recovery of growth momentum happened in particular due to contributions from the financial industry motivated by massive rises in volume of stocks trading in the last few months something that is not going to continue into the Third Quarter after investors got burned in the equity market crash. So perhaps there will be quite a bit of difficulty in maintaining the growth momentum in the months to come, but at the same time, it looks good across the board not only when it comes to services, but also when it comes to industry productions, investments, itand perhaps that will compensate for the decline. We remain optimistic that china will maintain good momentum overall and achieve its growth target for the year. Guy is that 7 a real number . Is that something that is actually happening within the chinese economy . Most people i spoke to seemed to suggest that the fed is probably the real number. Dariusz i dont think 4 will be the real number. Perhaps there could be some distortion in terms of the process, but i am thoroughly confident that they would not diverge from reality as much as by half, which is what your estimate suggests. I think looking at other indicators, such as fiscal revenue, for example, you can conclude that there is an upswing in momentum of the economy and that things are looking fairly good for china right now. Guy can i get your thoughts on whats happening in the employment market . This remains one of the central areas in which people are focused. Do you think employment will start to drift lower . Dariusz it seems so based on the q2 data that the labor market is doing quite well in certain areas. There could be a risk in terms of employment in manufacturing, because that part of the economy is not doing too well, but the Services Sector is much more laborintensive. This is where we are seeing most of the growth in china right now. I believe that the Employment Outlook remains very good, that the government will almost certainly beat its target of creating 10 million urban jobs this year. Guy very briefly, dariusz what is happening with inflation . You need to take a fairly good look at the inflation outlook, to get an idea of what you think the real gdp number looks like. Dariusz it is a very diverse picture. On the one hand in manufacturing, we have die deflation. What i would like to highlight is that normally the gdp growth recovers very sharply to over 70 yearoveryear. It is in positive territory, which is an important segment of the economy. We dont have to worry too much anymore that we are slipping into deflation. That also means there is less need to cut Interest Rates. Any further rates will remain stable for the rest of the year and only require reduction guy nice to get your thoughts, thanks for your analysis. Now lets go from whats happening in china to whats happening in the amazon not the amazon amazon. To celebrate its first 20 years, amazon is introducing a 24 hour prime day event. It is the same idea as black friday and cyber monday will it work . Does it matter . Caroline hyde joins us now. 20 years old that is quite amazing. How are they celebrating . Caroline it feels it can make more deals and sell more stocks, alvin eyes more ecommerce than black friday. The numbers are Pretty Amazing it could soak 2 billion wo rth. In two sentences of their press release they mention deals four times. The caveat is that you have to join amazon prime. You have to do it for a 30 day trial. But it is all about boosting their users you can get the deals that include their own products the kindle fire, gift cards, other things headphones, tvs. But interestingly, also, the competitions are posted on the other areas of business streaming, video content, music content. You can listen to music prime and when gifts this is about boosting their streaming subscribers. Solenoid annoyed are other retailers that even walmarts are coming out, saying they will have premier deals. Guy you should sell books. Caroline did you know amazon was originally called . Guy no. Caroline kadabra. But apparently it was too similar to another country it was also called relentless. Jeff bezos actually liked it. Relentless. Com still takes you to amazon. Guy why amazon . Caroline that was the original logo and a divided by a river. July, 1995, a small office in seattle posting very small profits. Guy thank you very much. Coming up on countdown, the catwalks. Lannett is making a comeback as one of the most fashionable fabrics. We will take closer look. Guy at in 6 30 in london. These are the stories you need to know this morning. Weve heard further evidence that chinas economy is stabilizing. Gdp for the Second Quarter was 7 higher than expected. Exports were also up for the first time in four months. People think the government stimulus measures are taking effect. Greece is parliament will vote on the measurements by key conditions of a fresh bailout that is unlikely to be locked. Alexis tsiprass party could withhold support. The imf says greece needs really far beyond what creditors have been willing to consider. That bank of japan has held off from offering monetary stimulus. The boj will continue to expand the Monetary Base around 648 billion. They also lower the inflation projections,. Lets get more on that boj decision. Aaron scott joins me now from tokyo. We are getting further and further away from the inflation target, aaron. Aaron indeed we are. The bank, as you mentioned, trimmed its inflation forecast for this year and next year. This year, it was the fourth consecutive cut since october of last year. The point being that the bank of japan has been ratcheting down at deflation forecast. Basically, the economy isnt really going in the direction that the boj has been hoping it would. This is problematic for eventually could be problematic for governor he wroteiroda. Guy so what did they do next then . Is the expectation increasingly building in tokyo that that will be the outlook . Arran first, keep in mind that what theyre doing is quite powerful, when you compare it to what the fed has done. It is very strong. Economists say yes, eventually it will have to ra

© 2025 Vimarsana