Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20240622 : vimarsana.c

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20240622

Lower in terms of gold. Why . Down goes gold. Down goes commodities. The u. S. Economy is back on track. We have the opportunity of a rate rise. That means the dollar is back involved. We are seeing a selloff across the commodities space. We are seeing borrowing costs coming down across the board. We have italy down 2 10 of a percent. The banks are starting to let the market know they are looking to sell debt. They are raising about five billion euros. Companies want to get hold of the optimism in the market now that the greek exit is resolved. Or is it . They are down 11 . We have surveyed economists. A majority think we will see greek exit the eurozone next year. Grexit is not completely off the table. Lets have a look at some stoxx to watch out for. Oil and gas are what to look out for, but also those who came out with earnings. We are getting a flurry of earnings. Cloud computing more than doubled. We are seeing it building, and we are seeing profit and sales up. The biggest drugmaker in the world i sales. Second quarter profit down. It reports in u. S. Dollars. That is going to be a concern. They have also been restructuring this business, offloading and getting that portfolio. It is all about having to downgrade their forecast for that area of the business. Remy cointreau down 3 . The cognac maker starting to see once again i hit of chinas slowdown. We are seeing wholesalers more concerned when it comes to that. Thank you very much. Equity markets in the green. If we close today in the green the stoxx 600, that would make it a 10th straight day of gains. That would make quite a run. Lets get the rap out of asia with david england. David we are going for a first this week in asia. A first day of gains across the region. This is how we are shaping up. Its a fairly good day. Keep in mind japan reopening. A very strong session. Shanghai looking like a normal market. We have a few weak spots. Let me point out what is happening as far as dollar yen is concerned. That weakens throughout our trading session. That is your twoyear chart. Dollar yen 124. 40. We are pushing near 14 year highs. A lot of that has to do with the strong dollar. Analysts are saying the downside to the value of the japanese yen is the strong dollar. We are talking about japan. When i mentioned toshiba that is the companys story for today. That is the twoyear chart. Look at the big dip last may. We now have more headlines on this accounting probe and regularities. They announced in may they found accounting irregularities. They will be restating some of those earnings. The change at the top came out a few minutes ago. The president and a few other top executives will be stepping down effective today, and come midaugust they will be announcing a new management team. The stock did well. They were trading at fairly depressed levels. Let me shift gears a little bit and give you a look at what happened as far as the commodities space and the spill over. That is asia, a slice and dice. Oil and gas we have a sick material. Mining stocks feeling the pinch in the drop in commodities. Its not as bad. I should mention a lot of the mining stocks earn their keep in u. S. Dollars. As far as fx exposure it still works there way. Back to you. John lets keep it right on commodities. The commodities index dropping to a 13 year low yesterday, weaker even then after the banking meltdown of 2008. Lets get more from ryan chilcote. You can take your pick whether it is gold copper, iron ore. Tell me what is driving it lower. Ryan you have to go all the way back to 2007 to see these levels area diameter to pick iron ore. Goldman sachs has a story saying china is oversupplied with iron ore. You heard david allude to the strong dollar. Its also fundamentals. Iron or they are suffering along with commodities. Gold is something still worth talking about. You basically had three pickup trucks worth of gold sold at 2 00 in the morning london time. That prompted a big selloff in gold. Then it recovered. Today it is back down. Gold trading at 1100 an ounce. Gold is taking a big hit, trading at five year lows. Finally, i have got to mention oil. This looks like we are maybe moving into an even newer one than we were. The fundamentals people are pointing to is iran. The concern is iran will contribute to the glut we already have in global oil markets. Lets get the investors take. Great to have you with us. The commodities story, the route of the last few weeks. We have got to talk about earnings as well. Have a macro discussion to begin with. The Central Banks are looking to hike quite soon. How does this play into what they would like to do and what they will actually do in the next 12 months . I think it is going to hike in september and my belief is the same. What will happen is it is going to be much more shallow. The next hike comes in spring. I think it will be shallower. When assets get cheaper you have to reassess and think about what is the right time to buy. If you look at the economic picture, there are only for reasons i worry about markets. If the recession is coming they raise rates very quickly. And if the numbers are very high. The only thing that remains is a macro risk picture. Other than that, the environment is very be nine. We had the chairman talking about the destruction to supplyside fundamentals. Are you surprised by the fact crude is dropping back below 50 a barrel considering the cuts . Considering in the year we may see that cut production . If it is about liquidity in the market and you have the pendulum swinging, i dont know if that is the case. The numbers are coming much quicker. I have a feeling it is going to come more. I think that is making people worried. No Unexpected Oil prices to sustain at higher level. In a way it should help the emerging market. Lets talk about corporate earnings. You talked about picking up the pieces. Considering where things are, do you have to think twice about picking up the pieces . Additionally, are some of the dividends under threat . Some of them may be. They have done a good job of maintaining. You have to start picking stocks in the sector. If you look at financials and health care, you have winners. Youre talking about companies with very good profit margin. They have a near monopoly. I will give you an example. If you look at apple, facebook, google, they tried to get into each others business, but they failed. I think they have near monopolies. If you choose your sectors you should still be ok. You and i are going to talk. For now i want to talk about the oil majors and some of the miners. You love rio. What is going to make you capitulate the position . We said lets look at mining stocks once again. I believe there are some fundamental stocks you have to keep in your portfolio. There is one of them. You are not going to build any more bridges. That is not the case. We are seeing a change of sentiment. There is a lot of negative yields. Look at canadian dollars. At some point you start hurting. I am not as bullish on china as other people are. I think it will come back. What i heard is the time to correct the correction. I think it will come and you will have the demand for raw material again. Coming up, trouble in tech. What will we get from the Biggest Company today . Apple reports after the bell. Gold loses its luster. We will speak to the head of the boolean broker. Is it a matter of time before the grexit is back on the agenda . The ftse 100 just clinging on to the greek. Can we make it a 10 day winning streak on the stoxx 600 . Maybe. Good morning. Good morning, and welcome. Lets get you up to speed with the top stories this morning. U. S. Oil fell below 50 a barrel. Gold is trading near a fiveyear low. The bloomberg commodities indexes pulling to the lowest level since 2002. Concern about a slowdown in china continues to weigh. Greases creditors are set for an august 6 deadline. Yesterday the nation met its debt payment and cleared arrears for the imf as well as the bank of greece. Greek Financial Markets remain closed. They will only reopen after hurling parliament reports a second week in april. Currency fluctuation stripped away almost a full percentage point from Profit Margins at the worlds biggest drugmaker by sales. The stock is trading lower by about 2 this morning. Time to talk trouble for old tech. The toshiba president announced his resignation after an accounting scandal. At ibm they reported a 13th straight quarter of falling revenue. Here to wrap it up is caroline hyde. Lets try to break down that story. This is a pillar of japan inc. Yes, it is technology, tvs, laptops, computers, and the like. This is a company that builds Nuclear Reactor or us that have power plants up its sleeve, and now it wears the crown of one of the biggest accounting scandals in corporate history. It is all about having to review six years of earnings. Today the breaking news is that had will roll. This out to knock a hisao tanaka has quit and to others. The thirdparty investigation really lifting the lid on what has been going on. Unachievable profit goals. This is the struggling company desperate to hit targets and impose it on their workers. They thought to delay losses and workers were unable to go against management. Systemic is what they call it. Clearly, this is a concern. We have seen billions wiped off from the value of this Company Since may 8. It is set to continue, leaking out the extent of the damage. We get numbers from the company at the end of august and the new management team. I am looking at ibm numbers. The prophet is ok. We know the reason for that. They managed to beat the low bar. I have the stock down almost 5 . What is the story with ibm right now . They have been trying to rekindle this juggernaut. It has not been keeping up. They have not been able to play catchup, particularly when it comes to cloud computing. Microsoft, amazon, these companies are getting in there. Everybody is very excited about amazon web services. The infrastructure they provide for businesses. Ibm used to be what they did. They provided us with programs installed on computers, with the hardware, the software the services, and you are seeing declines in all Revenue Streams of the business. 13 the klein in sales. 13 straight quarters of declining sales. Yes, they make savings. Revenue is looking pretty dire. At the moment are not able to shift the companys future to show off what they can do in terms of cloud computing. They have managed to make 27 of the business from the cloud. Its not enough to offset weakening deterioration. The european angle for you. They are able to keep up. They suddenly have to play massive amounts of catchup compared to some of the new kids on the block sales force. Growth in sales is up 20 . Cloud subscriptions more than doubled. The target has quit drew pulled the revenues they get from cloud subscription. You and i want to be able to access the software that they make easy for their clients. When youre on a tablet or a smart phone, they are having to offer their Software Online and it is building but it seems there is a bit of concern about restructuring costs. I will take your word for it. A huge day for tech earnings in the u. S. Later we will get earnings from apple and microsoft. We are joined by paul sweeney. Still with us the head of investment. Nice to have you in town. Apple earnings the darling of the tech sector. All about the smartphones and how much attention i should be paying to the apple watch. This is a big earnings number. Investors are clearly discounting some pretty good numbers. It is still all about the phone. Looking at 50 million units. It is the highest margin product on the platform. That clearly drive the bus. People want to start taking a look at the watch business. It is a small part of the business. They are looking at the next product. I think its kind of early on at this stage. Apple is going to lead the way probably. I can tell you the story over the last seven or eight years. You set theyre saying, we need a new product line. Smart phone sales kept going through the roof. Do they really need the apple watch to succeed . I would say with the iphone i am really happy with the numbers. The cycle is a multiyear process. Of course they will come with success. Apple will come with success as well. I am not looking at the apple watch numbers. It is an exporter, but i am happy with the other things apple is doing. It is a tremendous company. You are delivering 50 growth in sales year on year. You still see the stock is trading much lower. I love the stock. We had a situation where we were within . 40 of a correction on apples stock. When you look at the likes of google where they need to talk up raining in cost, can apple do any more on that side of things, returning cash to investors, cutting costs . Is there anything they could do with the Balance Sheet on that side of things . I think there is. They have made an effort. Google has not done anything with their cash. If you are apple i think they are very much in a topline growth story. They are in a new Product Development story. Google as well continues to put up great topline numbers, but the growth is slowing. Consumers move from the desktop to the mobile business. The growth is slowing, so they had to show they were going to look at expenses. The new cfo won a lot of friends talking about bringing costs in line. He looked all right. When i look at the nasdaq at a record high and you get a kneejerk reaction but we are talking about google doing all kinds of thinking, and then we talk about netflix going forward. How do you make a decision about which stocks . Ask i dont look for tech stocks in europe. As i mentioned before the break youre looking at market leaders. Youre looking at google facebook. Lets not forget amazon and apple. I look at the leaders and the sectors they are leaning in. It hasnt worked. They maintain Profit Margins. I go with market leaders. There are some challenges. There are some challenges. To the extent they can spin that off management has done its job. You have to look at the core business at some point. The pressure is really building on marissa mayer. Paul sweeney will be here tomorrow to break down the numbers. We will make good use of him while he is in london. Thank you for joining us this morning. Even with prices at the lowest since 2010, investors have been piling into options to sell gold. We will ask a leading bully and provider where does it go next. Join us after the break. And when should have to caption for more than is is not good i just up drying and will shes cute you get to see in the that baby. Get excited for the 1989 world tour with exclusive behind the scenes footage all of taylor swifts music videos interviews, and more. Xfinity is the destination for all things taylor swift. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to on the move. I am jonathan ferro. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. A picture of the equities markets. The ftse 100 slipping into the red. The dax clinging onto gains. Much of europe on a nineday winning streak on the stoxx 600, the longest run since april of this year. Quite a run. Switch of the boards. The big headlines in commodities. Oil getting absolutely slammed. 56 bucks a barrel. Combing back a little bit of 0. 1 . The bloomberg commodity at a low. The stronger dollar is the story. Your role buying one dollar. 08. Does 1. 08. Some of the index. Caroline how the minors at the oil stocks the basic resources are doing today. I want to show you a picture. A bit of a pickup in gold stocks. As you see on my screen, some the best performance on the basic resources on the stoxx 600. A little move over the past six months. Down 30 over the last six months. Higher on the day because we are seeing gold prices recover slightly. Your gold price of about one percentage point. Thats rebound helping fueling for the likes this morning. The overall trend has been downward. All about the dollar store and in the u. S. Economy doing better. The Dollar Strength and the u. S. Economy doing better. We will see how we fair the rest of the morning. Much more to discuss. Jonathan caroline hyde, thank you. More on gold. Joined by russ norman. A londonbased bully a broker who provides physical gold bars. Great to have you. I go back to yesterday that is where i want to begin and when we talk about something falling and that is what happened overnight and the trading session. We are scratching our heads why did it happen . What was driving gold it down. Driving gold down . Russ norman a quick 33 ton hit the gold market. S22 tons sold on the overnight. 9 30 p. M. On a sunday so gold was hit i55 tons. By 55 terms. If you are doing a rate, and size with speed they been successful. Jonathan one of the reasons and the other is could it have 10 a selling position . Liquidity not there and you would not want us tell if you are trying to leave voluntarily. After that point, cover something. Isnt that a possibility . Ross norman you choose massive liquidity. The trading date, if you are a server, you wait for it to emerge in europe and other parts and whatnot gets the best price. And we saw that. It triggered the stops and accelerated the move lower which picked up impact. Jonathan hard to be bullish right now. Give us a reason. Ross norman what you can say is you have given through some of the points. The dollar range with the Interest Rate rises putting it against other interest on assets. The point is it is all in the price. Investors are buying gold well below the cost of production. Your entry point is low. Though a point of markets, as they move on things you do not know tomorrow. I cannot believe there is anybody holding a gold position. Short of the telegraphic news of the decade. A lot of the bad news and the price, gold is under the ropes. I expect another bear rate toe push the market down toward 1080 and perhaps lower 1000. They will keep watching it until it stops moving. The bulls make their case, quite like the 1990s when he hit a 21 year low and was flatlining and the bears were hitting it. Into the 2000 gold saw an increase. I do not think were on the cusp of it. It was a series of initiatives manmade, if you like. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and removal of vat from gold which accelerated and became priced in. The moment gold is priced, buying opportunity and rally and sold in 2. Hard to be lasted. Jonathan the theres are spanking of the market the lower. My question is, who in their right minds would want to be polish given bullish given it was not a fed rate hike and the second part was about cutting rates again and again . The ecb doing qe. For me, if i wanted to buy gold everyone is under the sun was for go to push higher and it did not. Ross norman remember not everybody is an american and you are looking at gold in u. S. Dollars. The dollar index is up 8 and you can understand that. Gold is actually of this year. Russian clients. Gold has risen by 80 in 12 months. 80. European clients saw a rise in arge

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