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BLOOMBERG On The Move June 22, 2024

Agree on a plan as well . Greece. Is there for lets have a look at the euro. We are basically trading flat. Expectations were 225,000 jobs to be added. 200 15,000 jobs being added to the u. S. Economy. You are seeing the dollar trade flat today. I want to show you the Market Reaction on friday when we did see that sudden spike higher when we saw that number come in ahead of 200 thousand. Lets have a look at the commodity trade. The china effect. We are seeing copper pretty much flat. Not much of a selloff. We saw moves in the aussie dollar and the kiwi. When it comes to the recourses, pretty flat. Copper, resilient, moving that little bit higher. Lets look at what is happening in turkey. We are talking about geopolitical risks, tragic bombings in istanbul. We did see a move in the turkish lira. This is currently flat at the moment. The market taking it in stride. We have not seen turkish stocks react that wildly. Oil trading lower once again. More u. S. Rigs being added. Still, the supply glut comes. Demand seems to fade. Lets have a look at how it is laying into the oil stocks in europe. We are going to look at one volatile stock. P the viewnd to sum u of oil. Clearly seeing the pain of that Lower Oil Price this morning. Pain of Cyber Attacks at dixons car phone. 2. 4 million customers affected. Sulzer, this is a Manufacturing Company in switzerland. We are seeing them cut costs and simplify their capabilities. All about what they call a difficult and challenging environment. Jonathan thank you very much. Three minutes into the trading session, the ftse 100 in the green, up 0. 4 . Over in asia, it is all about the shanghai composite once again. Zeb eckert in hong kong to wrap up asian trading. Zeb thatsright right, jon. Look at this. Despite dismal economic numbers over the weekend, we had export numbers that fell short of expectations, but what is really driving this intense investor interest today, the optimism permeating this market despite the chinese economic situation, is that the government seems to be pushing forward with its plans to overhaul inefficient stateowned enterprises. We are talking about the shipping industry. Theres speculation that China Shipping group, as well as costco, major names our viewers are familiar with in the harbor in hong kong or elsewhere, these Companies May merge according to people familiar with the matter. Thats leading to speculation that china is intent on carrying out this reform. Critical to reducing inefficiency and creating new opportunities for Chinese Companies to create to compete on a global sale. Merger ofh the the the railway companies. That created a conglomerate to rival ge and others. Thats what we may see and it is leading to a gain for shipping companies in shanghai. Shares surging to the daily limit in fact. Check out the shanghai composite, up on the order of just about 5 today. It has been an upward move all day long despite dismal trade figures. As we look at the transportation stocks, this tells the sti ory. These are the ashares. The Big Companies here, merchants, energy advancing. China railway, and the shipping shares have all taken a nice advance today. China shipping up in the range of 6 to 10 . It has been a banner day. It shows you that these markets can go in any direction, certainly the opposite of what you would expect given the macro environment that the Chinese Government reported over the weekend. Jonathan zeb eckert, thank you very much. We will get to the second half of that story in a second. I want to head to Elliott Gotkine now to break down earnings from gas from. Elliott this is russias biggest company, the worlds biggest gas producer. We had earnings for the first quarter. Of billion rubles, just shy 6 billion. A reasonable amount more than analysts had been expecting. Revenues coming in at 1. 6 5 trillion rubles. More or less in line with analyst estimates. Guess prom, like other Gas Producers, suffering a little bit as oil has been declining because gas prices are often linked to that. Gas prices have been hitting the bottom line of Gas Producers such as gazprom, which is the worlds biggest. Jonathan Elliott Gotkine, thank you very much. We will break down the Energy Sector in about 10 minutes time. Do not miss that conversation. For now, i want to get back to china. Pressure amounting to boost stimulus after data over the weekend showed worse than expected demand, Producer Prices seeing their steepest decline in nearly six years. Nick wadhams joins us now for more. Give us some details on what it means for possible stimulus down the road. Nick what we know is that the s. O. E. s make up a huge share of the economy and the government has talked about consolidating them to make them more efficient. Weve just started to hear some rumblings about how thats progressing now. Major shipping companies, China Shipping and costco, they are looking at a merger. Weve heard comments from president xi jinping. Analysts have been reporting that hes making more continents more comments about s. O. E. Reform. The government is looking to consolidate some of these s. O. E. s to bring more efficiency from them and prove economic growth. Jonathan on the data side, ppi disappointing, cpi coming in higher than expected, driven by food prices which could be another problem. The data from the weekend, what are you looking at . What should i be looking at more carefully . Issue is big. E. You have the market popping today. S. O. E. s are weighted very heavily on the market. Could you make the argument that the government is sending signals to promote s. O. E. Reform to give those stocks a boost . That may be the cynical view. The government is going to look at more stimulus measures, giving policy banks more money to lend, really to pump up growth and may miss that government target of 7 . Jonathan nick wadhams, thank you very much for joining us this morning. For more, we are joined by stephen isaacs, chairman of the Investment Committee at alvin capital management. Data over the weekend doesnt paint a pretty picture of the chinese economy. Take your pick. What are you looking at for the weekend . If you look at some of the western companies results as well, the statistics we get out in china is open to distortion. Who knows the accuracy . People like Jaguar Land Rover showing shocking sales figures and also margin compression issues. We are seeing a pattern here. Im afraid the pattern is hard landing. Jonathan is it a hard landing . I dont see a peoples bank of china that is in crisis mode. The rrr rate, where are we now, 18. 5 . Weve got room to breathe. When do we hit the crisis button . Stephen i think they are already doing it. Up process has been to puff Financial Markets to generate the illusion of wealth. This is a sort of fed style approach. The asset prices are part of the process. Thats what they are trying to do. Jonathan i want to look at the trade data. The exportimport story tells me one thing. The volume tells me something different. I dont see oil. I dont see iron ore import volumes dropping off in a big way. What do you look at more when you look at the trade data . Stephen the yuan is linked to the dollar. This is one of the problems the chinese have. If they had a freeflowing currency, they could see their currency depreciate. That would help alleviate the crisis. As they dont, they are taking it fully on the chin. Of the dollar is enhanced, so the actual numbers look worse than they might be. Jonathan when you look at the currency, theyve got International Ambitious for it to be a reserve currency sanctioned by the imf, etc. For you, do they have to weaken the currency . Stephen this is about saving face as well for the chinese. It is a tough position they are in. I think they have a drawback from the process. I think this is the wrong time for them. They are going to be too concerned about social unrest. A stock investor knows what the slowdown in china means for commodities. Whether it is energy or mining. We touched on the slowdown. We could have the first annual contraction in auto sales in china for some 17 years. Do i need to be more concerned about the major automakers in europe . Stephen this is the ripple effect. It is a genuine problem. One of the givens in the global story was that emerging markets would grow, led by china. Now, china falls down and weve got one of the key props. The imf also reduced its global forecast. We look at slower growth. Jonathan someone at ubs called this the tricycle, china as one wheel, europe as the other, both unstable. The u. S. , some would say is the front wheel. What is the analogy for what is happening in the u. S. . Stephen my concern is that weve gone from a goldilocks economy that was perfect, not too hot, not too cold, to the microwave economy. It is artificially boosted, too hot to drink and too cold to enjoy. Growing economy is not anything like what people forecasted. The beginning of the year, all the investment banks were forecasting acceleration in the threes. We are heading back into the midones and maybe lower. Growth . Your jonathan just to wrap up this conversation with you, it doesnt sound like you are a september guy or a december guy. Where do use it on what the fed should be doing . Stephen i think the fed will find an excuse not to raise rates. Even the nonfarm payroll data wasnt nearly as robust. Employment is a lagging indicator. Im looking at a considerable period of time. Jonathan stephen isaacs, thank you very much for joining us this morning. Coming up, the Oil Slump Continues as saudi arabia looks for new ways to raise cash. Then, is an end in site . Greece hopes to end talks on a rescue program by tomorrow and it is a big deal. One of the largest acquisitions in Warren Buffetts career. Stay with bloomberg not just this hour, but throughout the day. We will be speaking to Stanley Fischer and former fed chairman alan greenspan. Do not miss those conversations. They come up with tom keene on bloomberg surveillance. We are in the red now 30 minutes into the session. Good morning. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. Lets bring you up to speed with bloombergs top stories this morning. Chinese stocks posted their biggest gain in a month today amid speculation the government would accelerate mergers. China is said to be considering merging its two main shipping companies. Warren buffett may be on the verge of one of the biggest acquisitions of his career. According to a person familiar with the matter, buffett is in talks to purchase precision car parts. Cap of 27rket billion. The greek government aims to conclude talks on its Bailout Program by tomorrow to leave time for parliaments to release funds for an august 20 payment to the European Central bank. 17 minutes into the session in europe, lets get you up to speed. The ftse 100 just rolling over. On your screens right now, but only by about three points. The dax up about 0. 3 . The ftse mib unchanged. The shanghai composite the big mover in asia overnight. Check out the fx market. The euro buying you 1. 10, pretty much for that. Uptown buying 1. 55. Brent crude down for a straight week. With Oil Prices Back below 50 a barrel, saudi arabia is doing something it hasnt done in years, selling longterm bonds. Elliott gotkine is in the studio. Todays auction could raise up to 5. 3 billion is this just the start. Elliott 5. 3 billion is a piddling amount for an economy the size of saudi arabia. It has cash reserves. 5. 3 billion isnt going to go a long way. It isnt going to go much towards plugging the 20 budget deficit that saudi arabia could have this year. It is a sign of the process. 25 may rates more than billion by the year end. Declining,il prices back below 50 a barrel as of last week. Saudi arabia is involved in wars in yemen and syria and iraq as well. It is trying to help diverse of by the economy and at the same time maintain these lavish benefits for saudi citizens. All of that takes money. What these bond sale will do is arabia, whichudi has been depleted by declining oil prices. Jonathan is it more than just about cash . Elliott it is. Saudi arabia opened up its stock market to investors for the first time in june. It is the largest stock market in the region. There is part of that project, opening saudi arabia up. Governmentudi selling bonds does is also gives a benchmark for Saudi Companies when they want to raise money. It is about deepening the markets in saudi arabia and also holding up another flag, another sign that says saudi arabia is open for business. Jonathan Elliott Gotkine, thank you for breaking that down. Lets stick with oil. Oilre joined by jason, an and gas analyst at jefferies. It is time to revisit the saudi arabia strategy. Do you think it is working . Jason it is working. Theyve taken a lot of rigs out of the u. S. Market. We are beginning to see a rollover in u. S. Production. In terms of cap are capturing market share, they have been exporting at record levels recently. Jonathan when you look at the recount, starting to bottom out. Three straight weeks of increasing rigs. Is that a sign that things are starting to go the opposite direction . Jason i think we are going to see u. S. Production roll over much harder. The additions are really not sufficient to stimulate actual growth. Jonathan when you look at the middle east, we talk about the saudis, the conversation has been iran. Iran pledging to increase supply within a week of sanctions being lifted. What are your expectations . Sources of has two supply initially. They are going to be able to increase production by about 300,000 barrels a day initially, going to 600,000 barrels a day within 12 months. They also have significant volumes of oil in storage right now that they will be able to put into the market immediately. I think it is 40 million barrels. Jonathan we spent so much time talking about the supply side of this story. On the demand side, you see the chinese figures, people get concerned, but when you look at the data, it says something very different. What is your view on china right now . Jason chinas demand has been strong for oil. We think part of the demand has been the filling of Strategic Petroleum reserves. I wouldnt want to overstate the strength of chinese demand right now. Implied demand has been very good. Jonathan you and i have gone back and i have gone backandforth talking about the energy majors. Itramp up earnings season, was a series of beat, beat, beat, beat, with the exception of bp. Do you think the real take away from the last month is these guys getting real and admitting the story of lower for longer and how they manage that situation . Jason we are starting to see some fairly significant moves to reducing operating expenses. That is coming through layoffs and restructuring of corporate centers. 15 billion of identified cost savings came out of Second Quarter calls. Combine that with 45 billion in cap x cuts. Need tolem is, they balance their cash flow with their capex. Jonathan thank you. Javier is writing that very story. Youve reassured the investors in the shortterm, but how much have you sacrificed future growth . When you pinpoint these corporate, who has done that the most, sacrificed future growth to protect the shortterm investors . Jason i think it is pretty widespread through the sector. I think the sustainability of the dividend turns more from oil price to declining production by 2017 or 2018. I think bp has been the most aggressive in terms of cost cutting but that does affect their Production Profile down the road. Jonathan what kind of company do i want to be invested in . Do i want the companies, the totals of this world with the refining margins propped up, or do i want the multidecade play, do i want the shells . Jason i want the multidecade play. I think the downstream is starting to show some weakness. We are coming out of the peak of gasoline demand. I want to set up for multiyear growth. Jonathan is that the big story for you . Jason i think it is going to be. Jonathan Jason Garrett all, thank you for joining us. Up next on bloomberg tv, we are moments away from the Greek Stock Market open. Details after the break. 25 minutes into the session, lets bring up the equity boards. Monday morning, the ftse 100 rolling over, down 0. 1 . Im looking at the movers on the ftse and it is the minors. That is weighing on the index and keeping us pinned down in the red. The dax in the green, up 0. 4 . A big pop on the shanghai composite. A 5 gain. The biggest advance in a month. Nevermind the weaker data over the weekend. It is about much more than that. It is about speculation that the government will increase mergers. Thats the asian equity markets. Lets get a look at the fx market. , 1. 09. A stronger euro but just. Cable, almost 1. 55 flat. Gold has been weaker, down 0. 3 . Brent crude south of 50 a barrel. Lets get to Elliott Gotkine for some breaking news. Elliott breaking news coming from turkey. The u. S. Consulate has now closed. It did come under attack from two gunmen this morning, gunmen that we believe have been killed by Security Forces. That also seen reports Turkish Military helicopter was attacked by militants from the pkk, kurdish militants in the southeast of the country, and one Police Officer was wounded. This morning, we saw there was an addition to that attack on the u. S. Consulate. There was also a car bomb attack on a Police Station in istanbul as well, where five Police Officers and two civilians were injured. All this, an upsurge in the violence in turkey that we saw beginning with those suicide bombings last month. Over the weekend, u.

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