Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622

The Italian Economy grew by. 2 . The estimate was. 3 . France is stagnating and germany missed. Francine has had a little bit of an impact on euro dollar. Breaking news from greece. The government there is to request a confidence vote after talks concluded with the countrys creditors. Anchor it will follow a pame. To the e. C. B. Lets get straight to mark barton at the breaking news desk. This is a series of events that we thought might happen. Who brought this confidence vote forward . Mark yes, the vote passed. A majority of more than 151. Big majority. Hence we have the confidence vote after august 20 which as we know is the day that greece owes the e. C. B. Money. It needs that money to pay the e. C. B. So were in the quite there yet. Thet is just another day on calendar on top of a lot of dates in the next few days starting with the euro area finance ministers meeting at 3 00 p. M. In brussels. Lets remind our viewers what happened. Lawmakers approving that bailout that may unlock as much as 86 billion euros. It paves the way to approve this threeyear aid program. Lawmakers were debate all night. The Prime Minister securing the backing of 151 lalmts in the 300seat parliament. This is what the greek government has now requested a confidence vote after august 20. Now august 20 is key not just because it is the day that money is due to the e. C. B. , but that is when talks end with creditors, as we all know greece needs the new loans to avoid default next week the make its payment to the e. C. B. The rescue deal approved includes sweep economic reforms, budget cuts mayne mandated by greeces institutions. The next big date is when euro area finance ministers meet in brussels to consider backing the deal will they back the deal . We had some good sound from you the finnish finance minister. If you remember at the height of the crisis a few months ago he argued it could be tied to plan before. He said he is confident they will be able to reach some sort of agreement. If we dont reach a deal on the bailout itself he said he remains confident that a bridging loan might be offered to greece. So we dont need this full bailout package. A bridging loan probably will be offered to greece so it will be able to pay the e. C. B. On thursday. As we know, we have a new date on thursday. A confidence vote by the greek parliament. It is never ending. Francine confidence votes. They can cause elections. Thanks. Anchor joining us is Morgan Stanley strategist. Andrew, very welcome to the pulse. Another day, another vote, another date looks like the greek majority wasnt as strong as temperatures would have liked for this bailout package. What does it say to you . Unfortunately this saga in greece will go on. It will continue to be an issue investors have to deal with through the end of the year. On the one hand, we have the risk that we could have a noconfidence vote and new elections. On the other hand, if things go theugh then i think towards end of the year you could look at greek government bonds becoming e. C. B. Eligible for q. E. If certain measures are made or granted. This is a story that will be with us through the rest of the year. Francine will snap elections really be that bad . If we go to snap elections he could some kind of majority with people that are more qualified and stable. That is possible. You could say that would certainly give european creditors more confidence that he has a mandate to execute. The markets have been moved around so much by election uncertainty the couple of years. We have to be concerned there is some kneejerk reaction that uncertainty is a bad thing. Anchor one of the saying that the i. M. F. Needs to be onboard and that hecht imagine greek debt extension to win over the i. M. F. It is come. It is just a it will come. Is that your scenario . It seems like middle road twheen issue where by greek debt is clearly on a longterm basis, very difficult for them to deal with. On the other hand, the i. M. F. s proposals or hinting that debt should be forgiven is a political nonstarter in certain eurozone countries. If you can extend the debt for a long period of time, you can have the same benefit, present value but you dont testimonyly write off the debt. Where that outcome is attractive is it is a bit of a middle path between the two competing arguments. Francine stay with us. We have plenty more to talk about. Anchor we have indeed. It is g. D. P. Day as we said at the start of show in europe. We had breaking news a few moments agoing that italy missed and we had french and german numbers as well. It has been a tough Second Quarter. Francine germany expanding but fell short of expectations. Well learn how euro area g. D. P. S a whole is faring. Lets bring in our bloomberg team. First to you greg. Big miss on that french g. D. P. Figure. Big miss, but after a big First Quarter, dont forget. Growth in the First Quarter revised up to 4. 7 . If you take the first half together, france actually grew the same as germany. German growth is disappointing too. It is motte stellar but it means the france did keep pace with germany in the first half of the year. Few things points to make about the Second Quarter. Some one off things like change in stocks have had an effect. More worryingly was a great slowdown in Consumer Spending. It has been what has kept the French Economy afloat, but barely the past few years. On the other hand, exports were up. More of a mixed bag and not quite as negative as that zero number would imply. Anchor paul, for germany, we also had a miss there as well. Is it temporary . What was behind the numbers . We dont have a detailed investment was a drag on growth. Germany is record low Interest Rates and unemployment. A weak euro. As i. N. G. Noted this morning, the economy is on steroids. There is a fundamental issue. There is a Reform Program put in place 10 years ago has run its course and nothing much has changed since then. The bigger concern that were given germany and france, the two biggest necessary the area, italy the third biggest is for the e. C. B. It said it is disappointed when they met in july with the pace to have the euro area recovery. The big question now is do they need to do more . Francine thank you, paul. Lets go to alexander. The plinalster trying do as much as he can. Thats right. Hello, francine. It was a miss. A big disappointment. But it is just enough, this 0. 2 for an economy as weak as italy was in its worst recession since warmed war ii, it is enough for government to reach its yearend target. It is not very much. 0. 2. The economy is on steroids. Will they be able to follow through with reforms and be able to deliver on promised tax cuts . He needs much more rope to achieve that and probably serious structural reforms. Up e will be a lot of chams the government. Manny thank you. Francine lets get more with Morgan Stanley strategist andrew. Look, g. D. P. Not doing great. What they do have to support, the weak euro, actually weaker oil prices. They do. Look, i think this cons to be a story of low and slow recovery. So i think these numbers are below consensus but i think the trend of growth is positive. It is also important to mention that while financial conditions like oil Interest Rates are on steroids, government public spending is still quite weak. You still have a large share of the g. D. P. Pie which is holding back these Growth Numbers. As we look into 2016 where economists look ahead, we see some of those fiscal headwinds abating a bit. The rest of the economy is growing a little bit better. Thats how we get better Growth Numbers as we sblook 2016. Manny we are still significantly above the median for where the euro will be the rest of the year. Were well above that. Were at 111. How much of a drag is a stronger euro going to be and is it a challenge to your model . It is certainly a challenge and will deduct from growth where our base case is. It is based on the euro forecast that has the euro weaker. This is one of the interesting maybe unintended consequences of the news out of china over this last couple of days whereby if that if those changes affect the speed at which and the speed of u. S. Growth then you will have an affect on the euro. It could stay stronger than ourselves and many other people would have expected it to be over the the next six months. Francine thanks so much for no. We will of course be staying with andrew and talking about some of the commodities next. Manny what else is on our radar this friday morning. Chinese yuan has halted a threeday slide after the bank raised its reference rated for the First Time Since tuesdays evaluation. Francine oil is heading for its longest run of weekly declines since january. No end in sight to what has driven prices to their lowest in six years. Opec production last month was to be the high m. S. In more than three years. Manus . Manipulated markets in 2008. Federal Energy Regulatory that b. P. Said officially lowered the price of gas at a houston harbor for financial game. Ancine lerpsd are hsbc, goldman sachs, b. N. P. Paribas and r. B. S. The fx of course more than 2 billion across nine firms. Well have more on this after the break. Francine welcome back to the pulse live on bloomberg tv and radio and streaming on bloomberg. Com, your tablet and phone. Manus hsbc and barclays along with three other major banks have reached a settlement along with u. S. Investigators on the claim they conspired to rig the market. Were talking about 2 billion. Where does that fit . Why . Who is involved . Is it really that big of a deal . In terms of the overall money, it sounds like a lot of money, a lot to you and me. It is all relative. It has been 108 billion worth of settlements. Yesterdays claim involving hsbc, barclays, goldman sachs, b. N. P. Paribas and royal bank of scotland, i suppose it works out at 1. 2 billion of settlement for them. They now have to cooperate with the lawyers who are investigating seven other banks who remain defendants in this case alleging that they helped to rig Foreign Exchange markets. Im not going to list all of those banks but we can get them up on the screen. European banks included in those. Manipulation of Foreign Exchange benchmark rates. Fixing prices and exchanging confidential customer information as well and of course this is part of the broader crackdown that we have seen against banks for a number of infractions and allegations. Many of the situations, most of them in fact, they preferred to settle rather than take these things to court. Francine this wont likely be the end of the claims, right . Very unlikely. You these seven banks in this particular case. The judge has to approve. Then there are seven other banks who are accused and there may be additional banks who fall into his dragnet as well. The lawyers have saying is it just the u. S. Investors . What if we include asian investors and european investors. They could net many times that amount. All of these banks, many of these banks, often it is the same usual suspects. Libor rigging alone, many are potentially on the hook for 135 billion in terms of the lawsuits that are outstand. Staggering amounts of money. From the share prices of hsbc and others, they are barely budging this morning. It is a small insignificant amount that investors are brushing it off, more focusing on things like china. Francine thank you. Elliott gotkine with the very latest. Manus coming up next, the yuan stabilized ar a threeday slide. Well be back on the weekor turmoil. The chinese currency. Stay with the pulse. Francine welcome back to the pulse live on bloomberg tv and radio and streaming on your , phone and of course bloomberg. Com. Manus raised the reference rate for the First Time Since tuesdays evaluation. Lets get quickly to our asia crorpt. At the end of the week, it has been a long, hard slog for yuan. Is the slide over . Well, i guess what happened reform. At it is it is joining the dots between dedely government set and where the market puts the yuan and they told us dont expect an openended depreciation. It fits that narrative. Ls this is an old school deevaluation dressed up and the timing of the movement, what they did this week cant will surprise separated. It is on this sliding export front. Only time will tell which is going to come out on top but for now, today, by stabilizing the yuan, it backed up what they told us yesterday. Francine it is unlikely actually that the depreciation is enough to spur growth. China i dont in think considered efficient to boost their economy on such a scale they need to rev up growth now. 3 is a modest move on their part. It would require mump more. According to some analysts, 10 to really make an impact. Unless they go down that road, i think we will probably hold off the famous currency war that everyone talks about but it is causing a Ripple Effect in asia and that cannot be denied. Francine thank you so much. Manus lets bring back into the conversation, Morgan Stanley stadgist. You have looked at the yuan. What does it mean to you so far . Sure. Well, look, after a major change like this, it is always temperaturing. There is always pressure to draw immediate conclusions from it one way or another. This is an instance where we really do need to wait and see. Is this an ax on the currency and isolation or part of a broader stimulus package . I think that broader stimulus matters. If it is isolation, then it is a challenge. It is probably a negative m it increases uncertainty. China has been at the frontor focus all year. You take one currency regime and replaced it with something that looks different. Volatility on the yuan and look at what markets are expecting and that has jumped and markets are still very uncertain moving from one regime to another. On the other hand, markets have been concerned about chinese growth all year. If markets see this complemented by further monetary stimulus, then it could feel better about chinese growth ricks. At the same time, if we look at the u. S. Rate market, this has pushed back Market Expectations of fed rate hikes in terms over the pace that they will take. O you can have lower tail risk to growth. It could be seen as a better thing. Francine youre right in that we have to wait until the next policy decision. Why do you think they did something this week . Is it fighting the fed or trying to address growth . That is a very good point. The best explanation or the explanation that seems best to us is tied to the fed. That the markets are still pricing in almost a 40 chance that the fed hikes in september. You have a strong linkage to the dollar and the that hiking decision was widely believed to cause even further Dollar Strength after we have seen a lot of Dollar Strength. That is what potentially drove them to do it this week. Now we have to see what the fed does and if that changes their path. Francine andrew, thank you so much for that. Manus coming up next, were going to speak to another cruncher who beat the pollsters in mays election and is predicting a loss for corbin to beat the u. K. s labour party. Francine what should the markets be focusing on . Tweet us at flacqua and manus cranny. This is a great place to work. Not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. Because theyre getting comcast business internet. Comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. And it takes done. About an hour. Get reliable internet thats up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. Call 8005016000 to switch today. Perks are nice. But the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to the pulse. We are live from bloombergs European Headquarters in london. Manus here are some of our top headlines. Five banks have reached a settlement with u. S. Investors over claims they conspired to rick global currency markets. The lenders are hsbc, barclays, goldman sachs, bnp paribas, and rbs. It brings the total fx rigging accord to 2 billion across nine greek mps have backed a bailout deal. The government says it will call a confidence vote after august 20. That is the day of the ecb payment. Manus chinese yuan has halted a threebaseline after the central bank raised its reference right. The pboc also said it would intervene to prevent excess of swings in the currency. Francine lets check in on the markets. Mark barton has the latest. We are getting portugal gdp expanding 1. 5 . weve got the eurozone gdp in roughly 29 minutes. The forecast is for a gain of 0. 4 because of the mrs. From three big economies. If we get a positive number, it is going to be the ninth consecutive orderly increase. We will bring it to you live here on bloomberg television. It is not just the eurozone today. I want to talk about the asian currencies. It is not going to be the dollaryuan. What a week it has been for asian currencies. Weve had the yuan devaluation, weve had vietnam widen its currency band, the Malaysian Ringgit up there in the controversy. Look at the movement in the dollar against malaysias currency. Earlier today at about 4 00 a. M. Local time in london. 2. 9 ollar rose as much as against the ringgit. That is the most since may 6, 1998. This week, the dollar has risen 4 against the ringgit, the most since 2010. The ringgit is at it lowest level in 17 years. The theory is, Market Participants think the nation is running out of ammunition to defend its currency. There is a threepronged issue in malaysia. We got the political scandal, the yuan devaluation, and slumping oil prices. The ringgit leading a retreat a month asian currencies. The governor of the central bank in malaysia saying yesterday the bank will need to rebuild foreignexchange reserves that have fallen below 100 million for the First Time Since 2010. Even better than expected gdp figures havent dispelled the gloom that seems to be overshadowing the malaysian currency market, the bond market, and stock market as well. Keep an eye on Malaysian Ringgit. The second thing, crude oil. Seventh consecutive week of declines. Get in here close. Over the last five days, crude oil is down 4.

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