The trigger on the economy at home but if youre looking at inflation that is where the concern is and those inflation was have piled on since the july meeting. Continuingd a spiraling lower and oil prices and that will eventually push back a fed rate rise. Only about one third think that a rate hike will happen in september. It used to be a 5050. Beforenny isnt it when we thought the stimulus would end in the u. S. The market would selloff. Now a delay in the rate rise and the market still sells off its because they are focusing on why the rate rise will not come. By 1 10 of a percent. We will be seeing how all of these markets open across the board and there will be some interesting movers. Keep your eye on richemont. We are talking watches. The exports from watches are following. Down 40 in china. That is a phenomenal statistic. That is showing the woes of Consumer Sentiment in china not wanting to buy foreign goods and especially not after a devaluation. Think about what august is going to be like. Lets have a look at what happened to the dollar yesterday. We have that Federal Reserve minutes breaking down with the dollar. You see that sudden spike lower. Regain someing to of those losses but very barely and clearly the money is moving out of the overall dollar. We are seeing a downward trend when youre looking at oil. Continuing to sell off keep an aisle on the oil majors today the one bright spot could be the Gold Companies out there. Gold miners could do quite well. Were suddenly seeing it spike higher. Selloffollar starts to were suddenly getting that much more attractive. And lets go over to julia for a look at markets in hong kong today. Good morning to you. As caroline mentioned that was pretty much the only bright spot with actually saw here in asia. Australia is doing very well but elsewhere you can see quite a lot of ceiling and i want to get to the shanghai market because it has sold off even more significantly in the last couple hours. That story we are seeing a lot of the selling coming through in the last 90 minutes of trade. The shanghai composite closing down 3. 4 and certainly coming off of that rally we saw at the end of yesterday. There have 3500some comments that seems to be the new resistance level. Bloomberg Research Showing the pboc injected the most funds this week since february but still that selloff on the close in china. You can see some of the big losers here essentially what we are seeing with the hang seng is it is looking like it will close down by 2 . If we look elsewhere at the Hang Seng China Enterprises index this is the mainland share listed in hong kong. This is where Foreign Investors can buy into it chinese company. This is where the 50 Day Moving Average crosses below the 200 Day Moving Average. Health care down by more than 6 today. That is down about 5 and similar to what we saw across the rest of asia on that Falling Oil Prices mark. China,ets stick with the shanghai composite staying lower today. Still above that key level. Three 500. That is the point in which Government Support seems to be kicking in preventing the index from slipping beneath that level. Frost. Joined by richard good morning. Take this down for us. 3500 such an important level on the shanghai composite . This is the level that traders are especially is a make or break level for the market in terms of government intervention. Four times in the past six weeks when the index approached that level we saw very sharp intraday moves. Yesterday, itned rebounded some 6. 6 . The flipside is that the government is also trying to pare back intervention from the market. They signaled that 4. 5 thousand is where they will be comfortable with the index at that level and brokerages are allowed to start selling. That means a citizen index goes anywhere people start selling because the government will reduce intervention. It goes to show how broke the market is that the movement is to dated by where people estimate the level of Government Support will be. Mark getting back to the currency market itself, the pboc and the central bank continuing to pump liquidity into the system. That is right. One of the reasons they have to do this is because they are spending so much to stabilize the currency in that market as well. It is been pulling money out of the Financial System and driving up money market rates which is of course tightening money Market Conditions in an economy. So what they have done is inject try amount of liquidity to and ease the financial conditions and break down the money market rate. Movement in the devaluations some say was to do to have imfanting reserve currency status and we now know that they are delaying expandingideration of the reserve basket. What does that mean for the yuan . Bein one sense it could positive for the chinese authorities. They are very keen to be part of this system it gives them more time to make their Exchange Rate more flexible and more market oriented. And i have seen as soon as they did that last week there currency devalued so much that the markets started to panic and they have been intervening to keep that currency very stable. So it takes the pressure off of them slightly in terms of how soon they have to allow the currency to trade more freely but it does signal to the authorities that the imf is serious about wanting to see more progress in terms of the currency reforms from the central bank and the chinese authorities. Mark thanks a lot. Richard frost in hong kong. That shock devaluation of the yuan is sending ripple effects through emergingmarket currencies. Today is the latest example. Kazakhstan punching the most on record. The turkish lira week getting past three per dollar for the first time ever. The foreignexchange strategist mark couldve or joints now. In the context of this large set up already seen is there more pain to come . I think there probably is more pain to come on a mediumterm basis. I think valuations are looking very stretched and there may be opportunities later on this year but i dont feel we will get that turning point until after we have clarity in the fed midi after the first fed hike. Archie boy which regions when you say are least at risk . For me the region most at risk is london and america. Growth anduggish they are being really affected by the commodity downturn so they are vulnerable from the china side and the u. S. Fed hike side. Lira asen the turkish it falls beyond three per dollar for the first time today . Turkey has some wellknown problems but the Political Uncertainty they are about to their israelions uncertainty around there and all of the security risk. On a shortterm basis the turkish lira selloff has been really extreme. Era it hastlehman been stretched since 2008 and we have u. S. Yields coming lower. From that point of view i think turkey is still vulnerable but a lot of the downside is really priced in and maybe the fundamentals are not as bad. The current deficit is 5. 5 and it was 9. 7 two years ago. Mark, the foreignexchange strategist lets keep it on china. We are joined by brendan brown, the executive director at u. S. J Securities International and with us today is simon nicholas. Good morning gentlemen. How can start with you, tositive should investors be risk stemming from what were witnessing right now . I think china is going through a big change. Contribution from the consumer part of the market that is now bigger than manufacturing. The dynamics in that economy are changing. It is balancing out and youre seeing some of those effects. In terms of Infrastructure Spending there is still a lot to be done. There are 113,000 miles of rail. That is half the u. S. It is just an economy undergoing change we talk about the currency like kazakhstan which isnt every day, it is another example of a company loosening management of its currency. We have had vietnam loosening its paid to the dollar. Where is this taking us you go i think we are in a very dangerous stage at present where my concern would be that what is happening in the currency markets may jump into the credit markets and that really would be a Significant Development including equity. If you consider countries like turkey or brazil or china there is a lot of foreignexchange risk exposure where the real estate markets have been bubbly and bursting. Many International Bond funds hold a lot of paper which is meant to be investmentgrade in these countries. We could begin to get a slide in those credit papers in this develops into something much more. Stresses areher just below the surface . There are bound to be stresses below the surface but you have such big moves in currencies and Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates and it is only a matter of time until one of them comes up and hits us in the form of some sort of default either in the corporate or financial sector. Mark even though a lot of these currencies had been initially moved by the initial move in the yuan, they all have individual characteristics. The at non, malaysia vietnam, malaysia, turkish and one in indonesia. Is there one that stands out and were received more than the others . And brazil are on the front lines there but i would say in addition china. Because the present chinese currency situation is unsustainable. Its not possible to have a mini evaluation and hold that when the whole world is unwinding. Market white will we get up your free float echo that is difficult to predict but other emerging market currencies are already predicting that this will not hold. Mark when not the knocked down effect echo weve seen the effect on those sectors that are exposed to china in emerging markets, particularly minors, i dont and luxury goods. Ae miners have been having tough time since last tuesday. And the falling Commodity Prices hasnt changed behavior. Part of that is related to debt so for their existing projects have to keep on producing because at least that with a get some cash flow to pay their debts. That is anew projects different matter. From an investors point of view, one of the really difficult things about emerging markets is the currency side because it is expensive to hedge. The generally your exposed to currencies and the underlying asset and that is actually a double whammy. Mark one of the areas you are worried about is real estate . Yes because you asked for a common theme between emerging markets and through all of the emerging markets without exception since 2008 we have had a fantastic real estate bubble together the credit bubble and we have seen some unwind of that in china but at some of these other emerging Market Countries it is only beginning and is a huge areas of potential stress and other bad news. Mark just getting some headlines from greece and it is on the payment due today to the European Central bank should we go to elliott . Tell us the news because today is the big day that money is due to the ecb. Is why there was the urgency of getting the bailout passed to enable greece to make this payment the European Central bank. We understand that greece has no given the order to repay those bonds, 3. 2 billion euros so it has already received the first branch of that bailout today. Once it has that money it is able to repay the European Central bank. So it does not go into default against the ecb. It doesnt mean the money has gone through just yet, last time they made a repayment it did take a few hours to be confirmed by the greek authorities but this is what we understand is happening now that greece has given the order for this repayment to the ecb to be made. Do we take greece off the worrying shelf . Or is it perennially on the were a shelf . Worry shelf . I would say meeting up perennially but it will be important to greek taxpayers. Mark this is the latest hurdle overcome but surely there will be more in the months and years to come. I am with Christine Lagarde from the imf on this. The quantum of debt is unsustainable in terms of a repayment plan and it will probably have to be some Debt Forgiveness in the future. Mark thank you for joining us. Simon nicholas will stay with us. Coming up fed info. Minutes indicate concerns over low inflation. We look at whether the markets are pricing in a rate hike. The bailout approved. Greece gets the green light and we will tell you when the cash will kick in in the starving economy. We look at the impact of chinas yuan devaluation and slow down on the nations richest. Those that have fallen from the billionaires club. Mark i am mark barton in london, lets bring you up to speed. Greece is due to receive 30 billion euros today. The money is being released after Eurozone Parliament backed the terms of a third bailout. It will be used to pay the debt to the ecb and to clear other outstanding arrears. Oil sending its decline for the lowest level in six years as u. S. Stockpiles unexpectedly increased. Seen oill glut has slump more than 30 since its closing peak in june. The ims must push back the earliest date that chinas you want can join the market to preserve currencies. China shifted to a more market determined Exchange Rate. A move that the imf welcomes is a step toward it freely floated currency. Markets today, all attention today focused on the fed after minutes from the fomc july meeting. Should officials remained concerned about stubbornly low inflation. Add to that the u. S. Cpi data they came out yesterday weaker than analysts said estimated. Lets get to mike mckee for a breakdown. It is all about inflation. When fed officials met three weeks ago, most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved but they noted that conditions were approaching that point. What was missing . Confidence that prices would continue to move up to some members continue to see Downside Risks to inflation from the possibility of further dollar appreciation and declines in Commodity Prices. Several noted tighter they were markets had not yet pushed up wages and prices. They agreed to continue to monitor developments closely with almost all members indicating they would need to see more evidence that Economic Growth was sufficiently strong to feel confident that inflation would return to the 2 target. This was three weeks ago, before the latest plunge in oil and before the chinese do pushed the dollar higher. Some emphasized that the economy had made significant progress in they felt that the conditions for a rate increase had been met or were confident they would be met shortly. One number indicated readiness to take the step at that meeting but was willing to wait for additional data. There will be a lot of it between now and that september 17 meeting including more numbers on jobs and inflation. Investors reading the minutes as dovish are now focused on a december lift off but the only thing you can really say is that a data dependent fed remains so. Mark simon is still here. What do we think . September . Probably not october, because there is no press conference in october. It seems september or december. Are you a confident december man . Dont think there is a 100 confidence about september q3 for this year. Whenever these minutes come out with focus on individual data points but a lot of the trends are still positive and point to recovery. The Housing Market is still positive, unemployment mark with the jobs market in the right direction. Core inflation was 1. 8 . So yes that is a slight issue. Obviously the Energy Partners going to come out perhaps in august or september because the big fall in oil was last year. Mark we had another leg down, havent way . And the chinese devaluation which has thrown more factors into the mix. Guest it does but at the same we are on emergency rate levels and have seen some progress in recovery. Of the ratesignal rise shows some confidence about the economy and you macys see so of that feedthrough to ceos and cap accent m a. Anduge amounts of cash these companies that could be put to better use than share buybacks. What does it tell us that today stocks fell yesterday normally on a day when minutes reveal that maybe the rate hike is going to be put off a few months. Markets would rally. Does it really tell us that there is big concern about china echo i think that is clearly the initial kneejerk reaction. At the worries about china are growing. Forget, the not chinese gdp number is as big as the u. K. France and germany put together. Any of those countries are all three of them were growing at a 6 gdp growth rate, we would have different concepts of inflation. And some of the indicators from the Chinese Markets if you look at the rail freight and the electricity use, those kind of metrics that people have used because they are not confident about the official data that may point to a growth rate of around 3 but obviously those data points are more based on manufacturing and industry and we are seeing this rebalancing of the economy move more towards consumption. So that may be slightly misleading. Itimon nicholas, lets get quick check on European Equity stocks falling once again today. Bailouts approved that is the market for you. All four indices lower. Yearold area finance ministers giving the greek package a stamp of approval. Can Alexis Tsipras claim a small victory over austerity . That is my question to you today. Is there anyway that Alexis Tsipras can claim this is a victory . Tell me what you think as the payment to the ecb is due to be made today. It will be made because the esm has given an initial payment to greece. Can tsipras claim victory at all . See you in a sack. Sec. Great time for a shiny floor wax, n