Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20240622 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse June 22, 2024

Of this , beatingclimate 108. 3 estimates and expectations. And the estimate was for 102. Francine better than expected. If my calculations are right and they may be wrong part of the survey was done in the first couple days. The for the market rout bef ore the market rout. Expecting to be lower than estimates because of the china factor. But confidence at 108. 3. Manus chinese shares have plunged again. Routteepest fourday since 1996. The markets europe, have rebounded. We have more on that with Caroline Hyde in a moment. We also have richard frost. He is in hong kong. What is behind todays rout . Richard yeah, hi. Fairly astonishing day giving the heaven losses the heavy losses we had. Decline. What appears to have happen is after the government expended so much energy and funds to shore up the market following the rout last month, they seem to have disappeared. Heavyat weve seen is losses with some of the largest companies, including petro china, chinas largest company, which has long been considered a target of state rescue funds, falling by 10 . More than 700 companies felt by the 10 daily limit. We break through the 3000 level. Previously, we had seen that 3500 had been the government had been the level the government had been determined not to let the index fall below. Having created concern before by the intervention. Now there is concern about the absence of their support for the markets. Its now anybodys guess where the market goes from here. Manus speaking of one of those guesses, thinking of the japanese market, we are down just under 4 on the close. What are the issues that are . Is there any chatter in terms of the bank of japan getting ready to make some moves . Richard there is speculation about that. And moree wildest day than four years in japan in terms of the intraday swings. We started the day down due to the big jump in the yen. Bad news for the countrys large exporter. As the yen fell heavily during the day, then rallied as much as 1. 9 , i think it was, then the those declines and we saw stocks tumble again towards the end of trade. Volumes are very high. Double what the 30 day average is. And volatility, again, the highest in four years. Outside of shanghai was a sense of relief just like you are seeing in europe, there was no relief in japan. This is a market that has not done as badly. Down 15 from its peak. Some of its peers, hong kong and other markets in asia, have already entered bear markets. But definitely a tough market for japanese traders. Francine very tough. Thank you very much. Manus lets take a look at what is happening across europe. Caroline we are calm after the storm and europe, at least. Green across the board. Thes in excess of 2 in ftse 100, the dax. Picture from yesterday. Lets have a look at the stoxx 600 in terms of Industry Groups. Yesterday, every single one was falling. Today, entirely opposite. Up 2. 7 . We have added 200 billion euros to the market valuation so far this morning. And 300 billion euros is needed to make a for yesterdays rout. Miners leading the charge, up 3 . Across the board, opposite picture, as many people reassess what the fundamentals of this economy is. Jpmorgan saying perhaps now is the time to buy. Youve got Raymond James saying local growth is where you should be. They are immune to the global rout. When you have profit set to rise 6 this year. Ofn you have the likes European Growth said to be the highest since 2011, should you see that dax in bear market territory . A nice city view for you. The pound pretty flat against the dollar at the moment. Yields at 1. 85 . Lets have a look at how the dax is doing. The euro coming low. Fascinating that became a haven. Whod have thought it . Euro coming down today. Yields at 0. 6 . Dax is currently high. Asia still not changing. 4 . Japanese nikkei off by 3 the dollar rising against the yen eventually. But china is where the pain was. The storm will still be an investors eyes when they see shanghai off by 7 . Commodities. Oil up 2 . Copper currently also trading higher, up 2 . That was oil. Let me get you copper properly. Up. 3 . So, a little bit of a reprieve in commodities and the asset classes. I will show you later what the miners rae doin are doing. The question now is, of course, whether they are oversold in these markets. That is what bank of america and Merrill Lynch say. Hascine even donald trump weighed in on china posting this video on instagram. Trump i have been telling everybody for a long time china is taking our jobs, our money. Be careful. They will bring us down. You have to know what youre doing. We have nobody that has a clue. Francine we just had to fit him in. Manus there is nobody who can trump that. Francine our guest joins us. Quite, the set up was something. On a serious note, how worried are you about china . 2. 7 wiped off Global Equities. Several things have happened in china. The first is the leverage and we saw between the 2003 and 2007 period was very much towards mining and commodities, as china was spending and growing. Now we have seen a deleveraging process. Commodity markets have taken quite a beating over the last fi ve years. Its just the process unraveling. Now we also have a new element coming in. The market i think is pricing in is a growing level or new level of skepticism about how the Chinese Government and central bank is dealing with the current problem. So, that is obviously clearly putting pressure on markets, especially the fact that the central bank is actually manipulating to a certain extent is to messick market. And i its domestic market. I think that is a problem that westerners, weston investors are simply not believing this is sustainable over the longer term. Manus do markets want to see more substantive action from pboc . The discussion i heard with Mohamed Elerian last night was this was a torch paper lit by the chinese and it is burning out of control. It is up to them. Guy there are two things again, here. Got an authority that is supporting a market that is already expensive. That is already too expensive and not actually properly priced. Compared with what the expectations are going to be for the chinese economy. So, that is unhealthy in the first place. The second issue is that we are not so sure that the Chinese Government understands or know what are the tools available to actually tackle this problem. We know what the problem is. We hope that Central Banks will talk to each other and give good advice to each other to tackle this problem. That is why we are not that concerned. Francine do we really know what the problem is . That thist worried could be a global recession because there is a hard landing . Guy it will be a lot bigger if nothing is being done, of course. But we have to look what has happened over the last 10 years. We had a Global Growth scare in 2011, that was very much driven by the u. S. We tackled it. We had a European Growth screa are in 2012. We tackled it. We have a 2015 emerging markets growth scare. We are looking at it, hopefully we will tackle it. There is no reason today to be scared that something much bigger is hiding around the corner. So far it looks like it is just the market that is now coming down. It is a result of unraveling Commodity Prices going up too much on highgrowth during the last 10 years. And Slower Growth coming into these next two years. Manus thank you for your opening salvo. He stays with us. Which brings us nicely to our twitter question. Francine we should have asked him. Should we ask and quickly . A cheeky twitter question. Hike . Q. E. 4 or u. S. Rate guy the market is clearly asking for q. E. 4. This year looks unlikely. I know some investment banks are already forecasting spring 2016. Manus i like the way you say the markets are asking for q. E. 4. Francine thank you so much. We are coming back to you in a couple minutes and we will be talking Commodity Prices. Here is look at what else is on our radar. Zurichss after proposed buying the company. U. K. Regulators have given zurich until september 22 to make a firm offer. Manus monsanto has made a takeover offer for syngenta. After an earlier approach was rejected. The new offer is 470 swiss francs per share. Francine the standoff on the Korean Peninsula is over for the time being. After marathon talks, the north agreed to lift it state of war in the south said it would stop broadcasting propaganda across the border sprint manus alibaba shares have fallen below their ipo price. It dropped below its september of 68. E alibaba has lost 120 billion of market cap. Francine if he still have spare change after the Global Market rout, a car app is looking to raise 100 million in china. According to an offer sheet, investors willing to put in a minimum of 470,000. And could see returns as high as 109 . Manus as Commodity Prices tumble, concern over the Slower Growth in china rises, the Global Mining meltdown gets worse. This morning bhp billiton reported slumping profits. For more,s lets cross over to carolina get the details on the numbers. Caroline pretty phenomenal if youre digging into the numbers. And the pain that is being felt in terms of profits. Lets start with bhp billiton. Profit worse than expected, down 52 . Sales slumping 22 . This is a company focusing on four areas. Oil and gas, iron ore, copper and coal. Production is falling and most of them apart from iron ore. Volatility is here to stay, particularly in china. So says the chief executive. They are doing ongoing Economic Reforms and china. This is going to contribute to volatility, so says Andrew Mccutchen but rays of light. Second half coming he says china is going to be better. Ivanber last week when glasson burke said he could not read was happening in china. Said he couldberg not read what was happening in china. Angie mckenzie says it is not impossible to read. Andrew mckenzie says it is not impossible to read. Emerging markets, they will continue to organize. They feel that the longterm priorities are indeed there. So, what do they do a mitts this volatility and this amidst this volatility and this rout . They are focusing on cost cutting. Squeezing the lemon is what an drew mckenzie calls it. But i think that is what sending the shares up the most since we have seen in february. The biggest move since february is because they are committed to progressive dividends. Dividend yields at a percent. And they say they stand by that. What a relief. Dividend yields at 8 . Lets take a look at a big copper player. Profit down 49 . Sales down by 30 . We saw bhp billiton slashing its 7. 3 . Its shares trading high. Medium to longer term prices will recover. They are trying to sound optimistic about the future. Are saying, yes, there are current challenges, but also opportunities. Could we see a little bit of m a . That is what they chief executive of bhp also saying. Francine thank you so much. The very latest on some of these miners. Be sure to stay tuned to bloomberg. We will speak to the ceo of bhp billiton at 2 30 u. K. Time. Manus guy is still with us. Ivan glasson burke said that he could not read china. Glasenberg said he could not read china. It has been flat. Guy i busily, it is a result of a general lack of demand on a global basis. And on the other side too much supply. So when the commodity goes up, they will post excess profits. When it goes down, they cannot avoid it. It is the only products they have in the banks. Suppose, the idea now is to try to understand whats in there for investors. Are they patient enough to wait for the upturn . In the meantime, as they wait to get the dividends. Francine is it something that you are interested in . This is a restructuring story. If you do not think that we are looking at a global recession and dividends are there, is it worth buying . Guy if they are reached being more back to shareholders as the slowdown continues, then it could be quite interesting. If they could be wellplaced and time the recovery well, of course it is a cheap stock. Manus and everybody hopes for that. And if you get it, then great. You mentioned the word dividends there. And this was part of the debate. They are holding on with their fingernails some of these companies to reassure investors dividend is there. Dont worry. But the reality of it is that they may need to shore themselves up. Are you so confident on the dividend stream . Guy for global companies, it is because asia it presenting has been growing part of their earnings. But if you look at more domesticcentric companies, take banks where Dividend Growth stories are abundant. Lloyds in the u. K. Or ubs for most of europe. And the u. S. , even bank of america or citigroup. These are companies that are sitting on excess capital and planning to redistribute a growing part of their earnings back to shareholders. So these are decent stories that are in some ways immune to the rout we are saying at the moment. Francine what is a Perfect Timing to buy these . Do you do it now and hope for the best . Guy in terms of Dividend Growth stories, you will certainly find some interesting ones in europe, in the u. S. And the insurance and banking sector. In terms of timing, banks in japan are relatively cheap compared to markets. It is the same for the u. S. It is the same in europe. Still unloveds by investors. The fact is they are redistributing much more of their profits back to shareholders. Much for thank you so now stays with us, and we will be talking about Central Banks next. Manus about volatility and how that will impact on the fed. Is september off the agenda . The it certainly reduces probability if this volatility continues, which it will, then the fed will be cautious. Uchammed in s circumstances it will wait and not initiate Interest Rate cycle in september. Francine that was Mohamed Elerian with his thoughts on how market volatility will influence the feds rate rise decision. Manus lets bring in guy de blonay from jupiter. Sane, sensible words from Mohamed Elerian. Do you see any possibility touched on earlier the fed would move . Are they going to have to do more stimulus . Is it up to them to save the day . Guy it is clear that the market lowow pressing in very probability that any rate hike could come this year, even in december. And most likely something will come within the first half of next year. The idea here is that if they do basis point is september or december, it will be a symbolic move. Then perhaps nothing for a year or two. Depending on the data and the global macro as i said earlier, Central Banks need to talk to each other. China needs to push for quite a forceful stimulus going into the end of this year into next year. Without that type of scenario, it will be difficult for the fed to do anything this year. Francine back to the pboc, something that has been troubling me. You say they should be doing more. At the same time, they are trying to understand the floor on the free market . Is it because they are getting the policy wrong or because they are taking too much risk . Guy it is clearly a new environment for them. Im not saying that they are overwhelmed by the situation, but i suppose that they are probably not doing enough and probably not being open enough aroundr Central Banks the world to discuss in concert what has to be done. This will change. It has to change. But the bottom line is that they have to cut Interest Rates. In a dramatic way. They have to make sure their currency does not slip out of control as well. They have to stabilize the world financial markets. So, i think there are things to be done in a careful way, and the result and the consequence of that, we need a rebuild of confidence, of credibility for that centralbank. Manus we have written a story on the terminal that says that analysts and china are getting ready on the ascension that yuan were traded seven or eight by the end of next year. Would that be policy out of control . It is not the right policy lever, is it . Guy it remains to be seen if it is the wrong policy or not. But what is going to create is a competitive variation in the rest of asia. And that obviously is not is not something that we are wishing for, simple because Interest Rates may have to go up in emerging markets. That will slow growth even more. And the selloff will continue because markets, emerging markets or valuations and emerging markets have gone up over the last six years as a result of growth expectations. So sadly we have to revise growth dramatically in emerging markets, because they have to raise rates suddenly, then the rout is not over. Francine think you so much. You so much. In the last couple minutes, bloomberg found out that china is halting stock market support. Francine welcome back to the pulse live in london. I am francine lacqua. Our top headlines on bloomberg. European equities are bouncing back this morning. Pushing shares up after yesterdays 2. 7 trillion global selloff. On concern that the government is abandoned market support measures. The shanghai composite ended the day down 7. 6 . Francine meanwhile, the Federal Reserve bank of atlanta president Dennis Lockhart says he expects the first Interest Rate hike in nearly a decade to come this year. A stronger dollar and a weaker n comput take growth and he told bloomberg that september remains a real possibility. 2. 7s yesterday saw a trillion wipeout. Some of todays guest try to make sense of this. I would not be a buyer today. This is a shortterm, painful correction. I think people had a hard time sleeping last night. A vertical down like this is just, it is not something you want to step in front of. Usually, it occurs at the end of a bear market. They have this has occurred at the beginning. This is a signal that something is very wrong pet. The fundamentals to not wore this. These rapid moves in prices are not matched by changes in underlying

© 2025 Vimarsana