Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Countdown 20240622 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG Countdown June 22, 2024

What is happening overnight, things you might have missed. The rally in the u. S. Stock markets halted a selloff that had erased trillions of dollars in equities. Lets check in with the latest. David, good morning. David it is about midday here in asia for our thursday trading session. We are really seeing a tailwind coming from that, no other way to describe it, that surge in wall street overnight. We did feel it at the open. Volumes are heavier. Compared to the 30 day average, or just about every Single Market here and in the region except for shanghai, which i will get to. A move back to riskier assets, as well as cyclical commodities. Copper actually gained in asia. That being said though, the other side of this is that we are coming off and i think this happened over the last hour or so we are certainly coming off a high of the day. We are of as much as 2 . Japan a big reason for that, as you can see here. That is what we have done so far on thursday, we are only up about 7 10 of 1 . This index was up as much as 3 . It is as if investors are saying that is it for now. Seeing some we are of the futures, as well. Just getting back some of those. The big market story is the shanghai composite area for the first time in six days, we are actually in the green. It did not did below where it started at trading. Were just getting underway for the afternoon. We were above 3000 one point earlier on. And we quickly came down. Warning before the markets open, we heard from a trader they were again injecting 23 billion 123 billion. What analysts are saying, they have to keep doing that, simply because they are ascending. They are buying up a lot of the exchange rates, as well as of course making up for the outflows in the market. At least for now, and im saying that themphasize market is trading on the minute, we are up 2 . For the shanghai composite, the first time in i believe seven days. So i will leave it on that, a good note. Back to you in london. Anna at least for now, maybe we should leave it there. Stop talking. Go out and hide. Thank you very much in hong kong. Asian stocks picking up from yesterday across guest performance on wall street in the u. S. We so the biggest rally in equities since 2011 on wednesday, following a rout that had erased 2. 2 trillion from u. S. Share value. Lets have a look at what has happened, this is the u. S. Market. The dow up i nearly 4 . The s p up by nearly 4 . It seems investors were trying to find a flaw in the testing, how far the markets had gone. Do they so often much . We also have some commentary coming through from the feds. Illiam made everyone think about where the fed is going next. In the final hour of u. S. Trading, that has some significance for what we get here in europe later on this morning. That is two hours away. First, let us think about the comments from dudley at the fed. On the relief rally and what it means for the u. S. Central bank. Sue what is ahead for the fed . The main question now that the dust has settled over the turmoil. We did see a rally on wall street, but the reason for the the fed has reduced the likelihood of raising rates in september. Turning to bill dudley on some comments on how to feed the rally. He is saying there is a lot less reason to the fed to move sooner rather than later. And take a listen as to why he said so. William from my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago. But normalization could become more compelling by the time of the meeting. Sue the traders are pricing in a 1 in 4 chance that they lift rates in the september meeting. From evenwn almost odds. E chinahance before the titl turmoil. Ray is out with a comment saying the fed might make a tiny move, a very small nominal rate hike just to get the profit going in the september meeting. That is an interesting thought. Of course, dudley said in his comments that there is a big difference between this latest economic turmoil, it have to do with forces outside of the u. S. As opposed to the internal ones. He also believes that the fed policymakers will remain focused on the Economic Data. And also the wealth effects, because when you have this kind of loss, a multitrillion dollar loss, deadly effects americans and work. That also will continue to influence how the fed makes its next move. But right now, a lot of things are on the plate from a tiny move to know move. And volatility is ruling the day. In new york, su keenan, Bloomberg News. Anna now as we move the focus to the feds, leading economists had to jackson hole in wyoming to talk about inflation and monetary policy. Janet yellen will not be there. But expectations are pretty high that the vicechairman will shed some light on the timing of the Interest Rate increases. We will bring you the latest from the Rural Retreat throughout the week. That will include, of course, one interview later on today. Bloomberg speaks to the Federal Reserve president after george and jackson hole Esther George in jackson hole. Dont miss that. To our twitter question for today. How should market turmoil influence the fed and their insurance about Interest Rates . Should they rise above, get back to normal. Whatever that means. Particularly is a a crisis situation in the economy, and we dont need therefore crisis Interest Rates. But is there such a wealth of fact associated with the fall that we have seen, that this is a valid reason to pause in the fed trajectory. Have your say. First today, we get some more insight as to the performance of International Companies in china. Return. T is a here with a preview of what we can expect emma our European Business expert Caroline Hyde has the information. Results in half an hour . Caroline indeed, one of the worlds biggest has a claim to fame it is the number one distiller and china. That is why we are interested, especially chivas regal. Maybe a bit early to look at the booze, but lets look at the statistics and china. 15 overall of their profit comes from china. The asian unit as a total, 38 of sales last year. This is a crucial emerging market for them. And the rout that we have seen, we are meant to be seen slightly improved numbers for Fourth Quarter. Quarters,cal third those have been tough. 3 . A sales following we know the reason and the trend. Lets take a look at the challenges. We know they have been hit as well. Lets have a look, a crackdown on the extravagant spending. Giftgiving, the government has been focused on that. That has been hitting some of the higher end stocks. Whiskey reducers and cognac producers, but the biggest effect has been on the middle class. This is where they are focusing efforts, trying to perhaps get into the slightly cheaper brands. Maybe because the local brands have been doing critically well as of late. They are feeling confident about the future, and a. Growth willes actually recover to about 5 growth. Rather than that deterioration we have seen over the course of the year. Interestingly, this year, back to the Third Quarter, by the end of the fiscal year which is now we should not be far from stability in china. Whiskey is still down, but they say there is a basis for comparison to last year. Lets take a look at what the numbers will tell us. Whether or not there will be a relief, or we are looking ahead to the next quarter and the concerns after the stock market and the chinese devaluation. So far, we are expecting it to not look too bad. Therefore, it will support sales up to a percent. Organic growth of profit is up 2. 6 . This is helped by the americans. Area, a strong dollar is likely to help them again, as it did yesterday. Comparisons, last year was when they hemorrhaged. It gets a little bit more pleasant because of the difficulty last year. And asia is still setting to outperform europe, were expecting hardly any growth 1. 1 . Asia and the rest of the world will make 4. 2 . We want to hear about the future. Anna caroline, thank you. We will see you when the results break later this hour. Coming up, we go live to a small french town for a very big event. Ources biggest lobby, reporter test the mood of leading french executives in a subdued French Economy. Stay with us. Anna welcome back. Stories that you need to know this morning. Asian stocks have been climbing today, tracking the biggest gain in u. S. Equities in one day. In four years, the shanghai composite is trading up now more than 1 as you can see. Toping to be the biggest rou since 1996. In an effort to lower financing costs. Efforts after the million, the deal would be one of the largest purchases by a u. S. Rival. Shares plummeted by 80 on the news. Monsanto reacted by rising the most. The outgoing greek Prime Minister has ruled out leading a coalition with opposition parties. If he fails to win the election next month. Alexis tsipras says his party would not put together with new democracy. They were the party that supported him when rebels mutinied over the bailout. Alexis tsipras did not rule out a government of national unity, just that he would not be Prime Minister. A trillionat erased halted, and stocks of their biggest gain in four years yesterday. What is behind the volatility and the rally . Is bring in oliver at atlantic equity. Great to see you on the program. Correction long overdue . We have not had one for a very long time. Oliver yes, i think so. To my mind, there has not been a great deal of new news out there. Particularly as it relates to china, we knew the economy was slowing. People have been talking about this for the past 18 months. But obviously, we have seen a pretty volatile market in the last couple of session. The equity market is in correction territory. As of last night, they climbed out. But i think this is a lot of awful issues to think about. You have oil below 40 now, a couple of weeks ago they could not have gone below 50. You have european markets still fairly sluggish, other emerging theyts brazil, russia, are still struggling. Lots of issues to struggle with, and the same time the s p 500 is the longterm historical average of 15 times. There is complacency in the market. Anna it is still trading on those principles . Does the u. S. Look expensive . European markets in particular, i think they do. They look more expensive after last night we had the rally, that we cannot get on tuesday after the rout. 150 week, it was almost does it tell you people are complacent . Know that china was slowing. Therefore, western equity markets just ran away with that too much. But in separate to that, whether you think the markets are excessive anyway . Oliver i think you come back to the quality and you look at the underlying strength of the macro and Economic Data that we had the last couple of days, in particular, the housing data. We are big believers in the home depot story. That is tied into the recovery and housing. If you look at julys 2 million units, a lot of the metrics are the best weve seen post financial crisis. Very strong numbers, Consumer Confidence earlier in the week was at 101. Well ahead of the forecast. All of the data is telling us that everything in the u. S. Is pretty strong. Anna so the only reason for the fed to listen to that equity market noise, if you like, are the wealth affects if we see the fact that it took such a kumble that u. S. Tv networks and other news out this were talking about the damage done to Global Equity values by what we saw in china, if we seem to have a wealth effect on the u. S. Consumer for example question mark or on spending habits . Otherwise, should they ignore it question mark oliver obviously, they cannot. Suddenly, the s p 500 is very global in nature. That showed itself in the earnings, particularly names in the industrial space for you have a lot of exposure to china and other emerging markets. They have been hurting. But you look where the u. S. Consumer is, and as i said, as per the confidence data, it is in a good place. But you are seeing a real change in the way that they spend their money. One of the themes of the first half was that the gasoline savings from the oil price not materialized. Exactly, the Money Managers had a great first half. People putting money into pension plans, asset managers, etc. But they were not going to macys and spend the money and department stores. What they are doing, theyre looking for value. Maxx, andmes like tj as consumers moved to the offprice channel, the other names we like our the dollar stores. But we have seen a shift of the days of people going into the macys, which reported some dismal numbers. Anna are you sensing any weakness in the markets . Any weakness that we have seen, you see that as a buying opportunity if you are selective. Rates, the comeback to obviously the fed are having some push out. The potential for a rate rise, and as a last night, i was looking at a 24 chance of a rate hike coming next month. Four weeks ago, that wasnt the case. Look at the sectors that have rallied on the back of that. Financials are a great subsector of the s p. That looks now like it will be pushed back. But i think we think the banks are seeing some thing like a wells fargo, the best in class, now trading at one and a half times on equity. We think there are opportunities in names like that, jpmorgan would be another one. Visa, mastercard, quality company. Anna thank you for joining us. 21 minutes at 6 00 in london. Executives french and politicians are gathering at the annual university event. Frances biggest business lobby organizes this. It comes at a time when the economy is seen zero growth, and the threat from the china slowdown looms. Caroline joins us from the event. Good to see you. What is the mood like their then with this fairly gloomy backdrop, all this market volatility and the sluggish French Economy, itself. There is definitely some concern here in france among french executives that the market volatility will trigger, although many executives i have been speaking with still see china as a big opportunity in the next few years in the longer term. French, there are 9000 companies present in china. Many of the big French Companies have taken advantage of the growth we have seen in the past two years to compensate the sluggish growth in france in their domestic markets. Company that has been specially good is the worlds leader in electrical equipment. They had tot month, lower the forecast for 2015 because of china, because of the slower chinese builders. I asked the ceo of Schneider Electric how he pictures the slowdown in china. Ours, whether it is mid term or long term think china is still a country that will grow. Technology, and a lot of solutions. There arertterm, probably some different markets. And we have to adapt to that. Schneider electric ceo is not ready to abandon. Even though the headwinds in china are higherthanexpected earlier this year. In fact, it is the new normal in china. It is normal we are seeing some adjustments. Because we are going towards less export driven, more innovations in the economy. And it is normal we are seeing adjustments in the short term in china. Caroline, talking about the macro picture in france, we saw zero growth for the Second Quarter in the country. Our Business Leaders getting impatient with residents Francois Hollande agenda . Caroline yes, just one year ago remember we had a lot of cynicism here when we had the struggling arrival of the few young dynamic bankers in the france government. One year later, what do executives think about the situation . Of course, we have seen some response to the reform. The activity is low, which is allowing them to appear on sunday. It is liberalizing some sectors, including many executives here. The challenges are not going fast enough. Cochairman,o, the which is now the worlds biggest maker, what he thought about these changes. And whether he was disappointed when the work of the government in the past 12 months . The main challenge for the French Economy is to resume growth. And it is to make the business really much more dynamic. And that goes to creating the maximum level of confidence, the maximum level of ability in the economy quality. Caroline so we have 0 growth in the Second Quarter. 0. 7 in the, we had first quarter. Which was actually the fastest we have seen in three years. The Prime Minister said he will keep pushing through reforms in 2016. His target of course is to lower taxes for businesses, as much as 40 billion euros in 2017. The question is whether that will be too late, because 2017 is also the year of the next president ial election in france. Back to you. Anna caroline, thank you very much. Joining us from that event in france. We will have more data coming up later on. We will get a reading on some of the metrics on the French Economy, how things have been performing as of late. We will be back looking at the volatility in the markets, but we should today get more information on the French Economy. So stay with us. That is around 7 45 u. K. Time. Coming up after the break, we bring you the fouryear results. Analysts are predicting a pickup that makes china causing a headache. We have a mixed reading from executives on just how much they have a handle of the china situation over the last few weeks or so. Some of the country saying one thing, other saying another. We will be back in a couple of minutes. Anna welcome back everybody. 6 30 in london. Lets stick with the french theme we have adopted for much of the morning. We are getting news out of pernod. A lot ofhyde is set, carolines on the show today. Im confusing myself. Take us to the number. Seeing 2 we are growth, but the market was expecting 2. 6 . There is a hit there. But there was an impairment for absolute vodka. They were trying to double the price, i might add that it is not helping. Economic environment, it is challenging and volatile. It has to be china. This is the claim to fame according to bloomberg industries. Number one is a distiller in china. Theas regal as well as cognac, the chinese really like that whiskey. Th

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