Station employees are back at work today. Mourners turned out for a vigil to pay their respects. Weren parker and ward during an onair broadcast. What we know is that the number of people who have died incidentselated around this country dwarfs any deaths that have been through terrorism. We are willing to spend trillions of dollars to prevent terrorist activities, but we have not been willing, so far, to impose some common sense gun Safety Measures that could save some lives. Vonnie that was president obama at wpvi in philadelphia. The suspect took his own life, but not before posting video of the murders on social media. The woman who was wounded is in stable condition this morning. Chinese stocks of ended their fivethey plunge. Almost all the gains in the last 45 minutes of training. The shenzhen composite was up 3. 5 . The shanghai composite gained 5 . The Chinese Government intervened to boost the stock market. To stabilizeted before they parade on september 3, commemorating the end of world war ii. The s p 500 gained 4. 5 yesterday. Donald trump says he has plenty of enemies in the hedge fund crowd. He will not be any more popular with one of his proposals on taxes that has to do with carried interest. Much of the money is taxed at a lower Capital Gains rate. He was asked about carried interest. Do you want to tax carried interest . I would take it out and i would let people that are making hundreds of millions of dollars face him tax. Right now, they are paying very little tax and i think it is outrageous. Vonnie he said he wants to cut taxes for the middle class. Fidelity express may drop bank of america as a lender for amex cards. And china has been known to produce fakes. Watches, movies, designer purchases purses. There is now a fake Goldman Sachs. It uses the same chinese character as the real Goldman Sachs. The legit goldman is looking into it. Tom unbelievable that this stuff still happens. There it is. Is the bestation form of flattery, right . Tom there were probably be a Sanford Bernstein and china, as well. Lets do a data check. Futures up again big two days in a row. Everything is acting in a normal fashion, even with commodities a bit of a left. The next screen. Vix was still elevated, but much better. That is where we are. We will recalibrate on this in just a bit. Two days of better than good dollar. The german twoyear shows a distortion that greets people at jackson hole. Grading them, as well, is the american gdp. For your moving average fouryear moving average of the gdp were just not back to the good feeling we remember. This is that tension. Vonnie can we get back there . How long will it take . Om it is a raging debate the backdrop for Stanley Fischer is that we are just under that good feeling we felt before the financial crisis. Talk about good feeling. When in doubt, intervene within the hour. Intervention in china. China is an artificial market. We begin with our very real nick in beijing. Link the events today between september 3 and it world war ii parade. Can you make that linkage . Is theink what it Shows Government its back to its own normal. The government had intervened for in the market for a long time to keep it high. There was some concern in recent stock market was sliding and the government was not stepping in. There was a lot of confusion about whether they were just going to step out. This shows that they intend to keep a firm hand on the market. Tom where did the shares go . If you look at the market, it is fairly heavy weighted very heavily weighted to the state owned companies. There are no shortage of state owned companies that control a lot of these assets. The government has a whole host of buyers it can rely on. Tom thank you so much. That all overlays what we have seen here. William dudley of the fed sends a gift. Exhausted bears are this er this are calm morning. First, Michael Regan of Bloomberg News on what we have served in the trenches and overnight. Im not a big believer in volume analysis. Was there a lot of volume yesterday to make a slip . Absolutely. This is been the line on wall street for a long time. It is good for the exchanges. It is probably going to be good for the markets. Tom is the consensus all clear . And others were on twitter gaming the idea of a new leg down. What is the strategists feeling . Bullish. Wls are still no one is really slashing the forecast yet. Tom there we were with nirvana at 17,000. Down we go. There is that gap drop. Technical ananias analysts make a big deal about it. We have really barely come back from the carnage of that day. The gap is when you have a closing print. People thought we are bound to retest the low, but it happened so quickly. Tom somebody who is looked at retest is the chief financial officer. Is it any easier to be a professor one year on . Pasta can use last year syllabus. Last years syllabus. [laughter] tom what we are talking about his artificial markets in china. When we say, who catches a bid coming where does that animal spirit come from . They do. We have a large part of the Investment Group on vacation right now. The real test case will occur in Early September when you start seeing folks coming back, right . This could not have occurred at a better time. With the traders on vacation, the positions were low. There were not long inventory positions sitting around. That is a doubleedged sword. If equity couple of markets were at, what does that mean for banks . In terms of the risk positions, they would have been low. Tom this is the absolute key question. They were not as exposed as they were two years or 20 years ago. Thats exactly right. We have seen this before when you have an event in the summertime. Suddenly, when the traders come back, that is when we find out where the market is going to be rebuilding. Reacthe Retail Investors when they open up their savings from august . What will happen with the traders . Is everyone fully engaged . I dont think they were fully engaged. The biggest question i have for you is what is your rating on fake Goldman Sachs . [laughter] oh my goodness. Us andchael regan with he will continue with us into the 7 00 hour. Coming up, bonnie will speak to jeffrey yu. Are in new york city at our world headquarters. This is surveillance and. Tom the yen is important. It is one of the great quality test in the world. A weaker yen today. Nowhere near where we need to be to say all clear on these markets. Lets get to top headlines. Vonnie president obama will be in new orleans to celebrate the cities come back from katrina. The president plans to meet with the mayor and he is scheduled to speak in the lower ninth ward. Windows 10 has been out for less than a month and it is being used by 70 Million People on their devices. Microsoft has promised shareholders that it would reach 10 billion users in three years. One of the tube baby pandas born at the Washington Nationals do has died. Said the second panda cub is strong, robust, and behaving normally. Tom that is very sad. To me, it is a big deal. This stuff matters. W luckily there were two. Tom pandas are big. Vonnie apparently, there is a 50 survival rate. Tom really . Ok. Vonnie lets turn to currencies. Emergingmarket currencies under to geofferyording yu. Is stabilizing. What is the mediumterm followup for emergingmarket fx . Peopling to make a determination whether they want to go back and forth on risk or take the cause as it is and realize the structural issues have not changed and get back into risk off mode. We still believe the fx is the weak link and we really have not seen anything for us to change our minds in the valuation or otherwise. We take the rally as it is an lets be aware that nothing has changed on the ground. Mohamed elerian wrote in financial times. Those who have invested in markets outside their comfort zone feel an urgency to retrench to their own markets. What does that mean for the u. S. Dollar . That really depends on how strong home bias is right now. , there has been the perception that the u. S. Was going back to a growth economy. Home bias is strong. In switzerland and japan, home bias is strong for all the wrong reasons. Despite what is going to happen in september with the fed, if the u. S. growth trajectory is back on track, there is every reason. Tom your Research Note every morning is arguably the most read on global wall street. About theritten quality of reserves nation to nation . Should we believe what is on the Balance Sheet of russia . Should we believe malaysia . Reserves, quality of as to what they are actually invested in. This applies to a lot of middle eastern currencies, as well. Their assets are stellar themselves, but it is not something you can liquefy quickly to support your own growth. Secondly, it is all about transparency. The imf does a good job. They finally have china on board, as well. We are getting regular gold reserves updates, as well. You dont have an alternative source. I dont think we are there yet. Vonnie there is an idea that china is selling long treasuries. While that have an impact on currency markets . Think it does make sense for them to be quite wellfunded and have as much Cash Equivalents as possible to support liquidity needs on shore. Probably, this is not going to be happening on a sustained basis. Hand, if there are large orders coming through, maybe people will be looking back at the u. S. To pick up some carry in the u. S. Again coming yields have to be rising for the right reasons. You might want to be careful. Vonnie thank you so much for joining us. Get started on surveillance for today with our twitter question. I we bumped off the bottom of the shanghai slide . You look at equities in china and you wonder where is the bottom . From new york city, stay with us, bloomberg surveillance. Tom another good day. Two days in a row. Im not willing to call bottom, maybe you are. Lets move to a morning mustread. If a this was quite good out of bloomberg foview. A few pundits and commentators have said this one feels different. That leaves us to reliable on subjective and unquantifiable emotions. I thought barry was really on to some of the silliness we have seen. What is the difference between analysis and seatofthepants punditry we have all been drowning in . Tell is difficult to whether they just dropped a drop of water or whether it affects it. Tom you dont know right away. You dont. The commentary of what the issues are, we can identify this. Threat of rising rates. We have Weak International markets. The issue is going to be the impact , what inyu sterner would suggest the difference is is humility. Guys like you have earned humility by enjoying being wrong. What is the worst call you have ever made on a bank. Vonnie tom tom i want to know. What is the worst call youve ever made on a bank. August 2007. I did the most elegant analysis [laughter] show that fixed income pullbacks were 22 on average and lasted on average seven months and i had history to look at and i said this is going to be very painful and will hurt the fixed income. I said, dont worry, we have one year of liquidity and that will make it through the its acted like an of a downturn. Boy, was i wrong. Tom this is the humility, vonnie. Vonnie but this is what the fed is facing. They dont know what to make of the shanghai slide. Lets face it, we are manipulating inequity market to improve confidence in china. We dont have any data on Something Like that. This is a new approach to macro economics. Tom we will talk about the Banking Industry in a bit. Coming up, we go to jackson hole. It is dark out there. Grizzly bears alerted. Brendan greeley, fresh meat area michael mckee, as well. J hole this is a great place to work. Not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. Because theyre getting comcast business internet. Comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. And it takes done. About an hour. Get reliable internet thats up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. Call 8005016000 to switch today. Perks are nice. But the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. Comcast business. Built for business. Tom american oil finds a bit. 39 up to 40. Lets get to our top headlines. Vonnie a poll released just minutes ago may add to the speculation about Vice President joe biden and a run for the white house. The survey shows from quebec university. Than hillaryer clinton does. It shows he has a higher favorability rating than clinton or bernie sanders. In iowa, clinton was asked about whether joe biden would run. He has to make what is a very difficult decision for himself and his family and he should have the space and the opportunity to decide what he wants to do. Have goode polls did news for clinton. 45 would choose her to be the partys nominee. 22 would choose sanders. 18 would choose biden. Ended withy slump almost all gains in the last 45 minutes of trading. The shenzhen composite was up more than 3 . The shanghai composite gained more than 5 . The Chinese Government intervened to boost the stock market. They wanted to stabilize before a parade marking the end of world war ii on september 3. S p 500 futures are up more than 1 today. There is a new king of the bond market. Jeff gundlach has beaten his bigname peers. In the last month, his Double Line Total Return Bond Fund is returning 0. 7 . Hollywood is finally getting a look at just how many people watch streaming video on netflix. The wall street journal says nielsen has been wrapping up a program that measures viewing on that likes and other online services. It is tracking on most 1000 shows. One of baseballs leaders in the arts of pitching nearly completes another masterpiece. Oled theerlander fo talented angels for eight innings, but the nohitter was broken up with a double at the start of the ninth inning. That is barely fair. It would have been his third nohitter. Tom unbelievable. Vonnie wow. Tom absolutely superb. Baseball getting into the most interesting time of year. It is an interesting time for economists. They are in jackson hole, wyoming. Michael mckee, Brendan Greeley are there. They are in the Early Morning mist. Brendan greeley has run into hawkish and dovish grizzly bears. Brendan all we have run into is Purple Mountain pitch blackness. All i can show you is that i am in fact wearing cowboy boots. That is the best proof i can offer of being in jackson hole. Of course, events and that being more important than plans. The events are the volatility. Yesterday, mike talked to esther george, the president of the kansas city fed, on the bloomberg fed spectrometer. She is assessed as a plus one. , events are more important than plans. It ended up being about wall street. Michael they will talk about the inflation inside the room. Outside the room, they are talking about wall street and the question of whether or not the fed is on track to raise rates on september 17. Bill dudley suggested volatility might delay a rate increase. Esther georges not buying it. Esther we should expect volatility from time to time. We are in a period of some uncertainty, questions about china, questions about global growth. I think we should expect some volatility. What it means for Monetary Policy is not yet clear. It is a complication. It is something we watch. Im not ready to say it has some longterm effect. Michael of course, they still have three weeks until they meet. There will be a lot of data between now and then and a lot can change. She is not ready to make a decision. Esther and that is the problem brendan and that is the problem with being data dependent. We dont really know which is going to be the most important data. We have gdp revisions out today. It is one more thing to look at. When she was a Voting Member of the fed, she did vote against the third round of qe. You asked her about it and she pointed out that qe is designed to create asset inflation and it worked almost too well. Esther i always had the sense from the various iterations of qe that we undertook, which were designed to support asset values, to boost asset values, that this could be a consequence. This could be one of the costs. Brendan obviously, qe was a blunt instrument. Monetary policy is a blunt instrument. When you hear from the more hawkish members of the fed, what you get is that this is bad Monetary Policy. But Monetary Policy is not in a vacuum. If it is the only thing you can do, then you need a blunt instrument like qe or continued easing. Michael they have made it clear that they want to get out of it and it is a western of timing and if i can. They say, if we delay because of wall street, it looks like we are making policy for wall street and not the economy. Brendan there is this dance. When we talk about the markets and the fed, Lisa Abramowicz describes the market as a spoiled sixyearold child and when the fed gives the markets a cookie, it has to make sure that the market appreciates it properly. Doings the dance we are right now. The markets are throwing a tantrum. The question we are asking is how does the adult handle it . Tom coming up today from wyoming, we will speak to various and sundry french president s fed president s. Also, an extended conversation with the central bank had for india. Stay with us worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Lets go into new functionality on the bloomberg terminal. The green line is the fed probability of when they will raise rates. The yellow line is 60 days ago. This is a lower gas of where Interest Rates will be out two years and three years. At the same time, a greater likelihood of that september or october or december rate increase. Right now, we need a single best chart. Vonnie 10 years since Hurricane Katrina, the costliest Natural Disaster<