Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close September 1, 2017

Things right in the winter. Trading, 30ities minutes from the friday session in end. Stocks higher today after dropping for a third consecutive month, the worst stretch since february of last year with the index on track for a weekly gain after falling last week. Likex market is looking this with sterling rising against the dollar and these other currencies falling with bond yields gaining and commodities the final u. K. I data out of orders andxport domestic demand with Companies Reporting the strongest intake of new order since they were bolstered by the weak sterling, the currency depreciation. Also it is contributing to Purchase Price gains, accelerate for the first time in seven months but at a slower pace since the start of the year. Overall growth slowing in the first half of the year as Consumer Spending some boe policymakers calling for a rate increase to keep a lid on above target inflation. That is the data highlight in the u. K. Sterling in august, worst month against the dollar since last october, falling 2. 2 . Fellthe new Zealand Dollar versus the pound in august out of all of its g10 peers. Year to date, only the new Zealand Dollar and the u. S. Dollar are down against the pound. We have had we data and concerns weak data and concerns about brexit. Some say the u. K. Dividend yields of 4 is attracted to other equity regions. , they sayixed income a diversified Dividend Strategy is likely to outperform, particularly in times of bond yields volatility. The u. K. 10year, the blue line, the ftse 100 dividend yield is the white line. I will finish with the gmm function. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u. S. , what is it looking like . Smallns are rolling on, to solid gains for the dow, s p 500, and the nasdaq. Stocks. Ains for starting september off with a bit of a bowlers bank as investors thinking the nonfarm payrolls report just right, considering we had gains once again for u. S. Stocks. Not only weekly gains on august finish higher and for the s p 500, pretty exciting stuff. Cross asset class, a risk on tone. 10 raday chart of the nonfarm payrolls as investors were trying to digest the miss, it went lower, haven bonds for a moment rallied but investors been look at manufacturing data, 36,000 manufacturing jobs added with a matching matching a fiveyear high. The 10 year yield up for basis point, telling us haven bonds are selling off and investors going towards the growth stocks. The s p 500, we will see the 10 year yield is affecting the sector composition. Most of the sectors are higher but financials getting a tailwind from rising higher. On the bottom, telecom just went higher by utilities, the high dividends look less attractive as yields rise and some of the backscreen heider, j. P. Morgan, bank of america, citigroup, j. P. Morgan on pace for its best day since the end of july. Bloombergack into the and look at the 10 year yield in august, amazing, the 10 year yield dropped about eight basis points, its biggest drop since the brexit of last year and that drop outsized in a big way risk off mentality. Here it is less clear whether or not it is some of the Political Uncertainty or perhaps investors think the fed will not raise rates again this year and we will know in september at the next fomc meeting. Vonnie maybe it is a little bit of everything and lack of liquidity. Thank you. Lets get to the first word news with Courtney Donohoe. Report is at jobs break from what has been solid progress in the labor market. ,000 jobs in june and july revised downward. We spoke with the white house chief economic advisor. If i would have told you at the beginning of the year that would be a 3 gdp of 4. 4 unemployment, you would have said those are great numbers and an amazing accomplishment. We are there. We are very pleased with where we are in the economy and in the cycle here in average hourly ines plunged lesson forecast august. Greg abbott warns it will take years for houston to recover from the devastating storm. He says federal emergency authorities will help, especially those without flood insurance. Floodwaters have started to receive in houston but still a problem elsewhere. President trump visits the area tomorrow again. President trump may use the disaster in texas to lower the risk of an unprecedented default , according to a demonstration officials, he may attach an increase in the debt limit and initial 6 billion in disaster aid requests. The white house want to extend the debt limit at least until congress can deal with the funding for the government for the fiscal year. Pressure mounting on theresa may to break the brexit deadlock, the third round of talks has ended in acrimony. The big Sticking Point is money, the eu says the u. K. Should pay for commitments the block has made based on the assumption the country would remain a member. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Courtney Donohoe this is. Bloomberg. Week the ecb meets next and begin discussions on the stimulus passport 2018 but a final decision could be delayed until december. Weeks before the current planning expires. Joining us is our western European Central banks leader. Well done with the story and what does it tell us with the mood among policymakers . They began discussions about ending qe, or the pathway to ending to the qe. They have a lot to do and not that much time to do it. Starting next wednesday and thursday, the twoday policy meeting to formally discuss what to do with the Bond Purchase Program and also the context of the wider stimulus measures suggest that there was little chance of a deal in september. The people we spoke to said the complexity of this means you cannot will lie on october 26 either, that means the policy meeting of december 14 may be the one where the final the ghosts, including the pace and size of 2018 gets to be announced. Not long before the program is scheduled to end at the end of this year. Vonnie how much choice does the ecb have . I some point its hand is forced technically . Only a certain number of bonds that can by and if it sticks to its counsel key, by according to the relative size of the economy, it will run out faster than others in sum, germany is a problem and smaller nations are pretty much there. Not just the t, nation limits, selfimposed, the ecb cannot talk about raising those limits or expanding into new Asset Classes like etf. Not that much appetite within the governing council for that, instead, they want to find a new stimulus cap and thats why talks are so complex. Mark is there a risk in leaving so late, does that carry its own risk . There is an awareness in the governing council that yes, that is one of the challenges. It suggest that, although the final details may come in december, you will get some signals along the way and possibly next week but hopes are fading for that. October 26, there should be some sign of what will happen in 2018 but not the crucial bit, which is the size of purchases. Not ruled out, october 26 it could happen but it is looking pretty. Tricky. Mark great story near the top of the chart, have a look at the bloomberg. Lets get more insight on the challenging facing mario draghi and his colleagues with the euro this week. Gains in european core inflation remain tepid. Our chief investment strategist a chief investment strategist. It highlights the tricky nature that mario draghi and his colleagues face with a qe program, you want to unwind it but inflation way below target and growth is looking in good shape. Do you think they are managing the communication side well . They are going to their mandate, inflation target, that target is the central bank and standard forecasting models would be that it should come through. It has not. The europe question,f your enough time left, the signals will start as mentioned by her colleague. Enough time to prepare the markets. Not to ignore the position in canpe, it mark mark does mario draghi need to address it . 120 four thesed First Time Since january of 2015 and its best start to the year ever. If you look at the pure economics of the eurozone, it is consistent with a former currency but the problem is, if it is too much and the recovery is still in its early stages, that is where the problem starts. If they exit from the easing policy, they will not be able to do it again. It is not like cutting by 25 basis points, these are Big Decisions and that is why they are taking the time. Vonnie what about verbal intervention . Ecb, governing members or mario draghi can Say Something to help weaken the euro without making it obvious he is doing that . We already had one example of that in the minutes. Mario draghi had a chance to do that at jackson hole but decided not to. One of the reasons we had a if the euro day that looks good, which it is speeches can have an influence but it will be critical to not let the euro go out of hand. That job morning vonnie how closely is the ecb watching u. S. Data and what will it and the markets have thought about todays jobs data and whether the rate hike of december is looking likely . If currency as an important part of the objective function, you are looking at the u. S. Economy important. We had a miss on noncop payroll data, there is a risk that the market is underestimating the fed hike. Those are risk factors and not a central scenario. The ecb, its from will be more effective if the u. S. Economy does better. Mark where is value in the fixed income and credit space right now . G4 interest rates, i do not see much value. Rates shock has reduced. We are trading ranges that are narrow. I do not see strong value in duration and credit, focusing on ig is like a government bond. They are no longer showing credit risk. As long as the cycle continues, there is still value in that segment of the credit market. Mark fixed income, em credit, good start to the year, geopolitical issues have not flared up and investors calm about what the fed will do. The risk factors have changed, em has been climbing and the risk factor changes every three months. I do not see the fed as a major hindrance to em because i relations are much better than in 2013. The ability to absorb the shock is higher. You have to be careful about which countries you are talking about. Vonnie be more specific because the number of em countries have been on fire and maybe should be avoided. Others, maybe some countries that may provide some value. And the frontier space, there has been quite a bit of focus on isentina, i think that something we have to be careful about. They have tightened quite a bit and that is where the countries i am looking at are backed by fundamentals. Egypt is something we are looking at carefully. Markets,of mainstream turkey looks attractive. Vonnie i was going to ask you about tricky because geopolitics is on my mind, kenya today. Turkey today, the geopolitical situation, would it concern you . A lot of political noise from turkey. There is a lot in the pricing. Staysg as the government and we may disagree with some of their policies but the risk premier compensates that, one of the more higher yielding countries, which benefits from low oil prices. The coupling of those components, special evaluations, which is supportive. Mark some of wall streets biggest name warning about risks in the market. Yours is the fixed Income Credit space, what are the signs for the move, trigger when it happens . Valuationoking at the and equity markets, especially in the u. S. Which i think is the key risk factor in the space. If you take out the bubble years, high valuation levels, it has been a linkage between fed policy and valuations. Janet yellen did not talk about it at jackson hole but that talk has come back. Thinking of a bubble in that space, that is what im concerned about. Mark great to see you, the chief Investment Strategies at lombard. Coming up, youre watching the european close, what be late london mayor told us about the brexit talks and what needs to be done to get them back on track. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. Mark i am mark barton. Theresa may is under increasing pressure after the latest round of brexit talks ended in a stalemate. Some say britain is refusing to acknowledge its financial obligation and want to deal with montevideo that is impossible to achieve and wants a deal that is impossible to achieve. There is some uncertainty around brexit. I have been lobbying the government about more certainty. Is deals not listed with the eu like march of 2019. I am pleased the government is listening and that means hopefully that Financial Institutions will know there will not be a cliff it forward. They should be reassured that the government is listening in relation to the needs. I think the government should do it sooner rather than later, membership and a Single Market at least during the transitional arrangements. In my view, the you should be members of a sing a market. A Single Market. The government recognizes why the Single Market is so important and banks and others will have the certainty they need to know that in mark 2019 we will not call up a cliff and there is no need to make plan b. The negotiations seem to be stumbling. Not a key concern for you . The Prime Minister and the cabinet have to raise their game , i meet regularly with members of the british cabinet and have been saying that they meet need to make sure they negotiate in good terms with a sense of positive the with the eu and recognizing there is a huge amount of advanced work for negotiations. Would like to see it is afford to recognize, you have to recognize important to recognize, not possible for someone to leave the eu who leaves the eu we should give a castiron guarantee in london and the u. K. To say, wespective of what the eu will give you the guarantee you want from london and the u. K. Which would lead to a goodwill with the european parliament. Nobodys interest for there to be a bad deal between the u. K. And the eu, that for the eu. Mark sadiq khan earlier on bloomberg. Vonnie coming up, we will talk with an early uber investor about the Biggest Challenges facing the companys new ceo. And what that investor thinks about a potential ipo in 2019. That is coming up. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. Mark live from london, i am mark barton. Here is a look at the biggest business stories in the news, nextels results on the Worlds Largest automakers in the u. S. Today. Fiat chrysler fell and honda also falling with gm and toyota posting gains. One of the top 10 market for new vehicle purchases is used in who lost nearly a week of selling days because of a hurricane. The aftermath of hurricane harvey. The latest revelation from wells fargo about millions of unauthorized accounts may jeopardize a 142 million classaction settlement which won preliminary approval in july the for the bank raised its fake account estimates by two thirds. Lawyers for some customers are preparing written objections to the agreement. President trump will decide whether to block china back canyon bridge from Semiconductor Company after National Security officials opposed the takeover. The deal is guy that 1. 3 billion and canyon bridge will try to gain approval since agreeing to a deal last december and the president has 15 days to make a decision. That is related Bloomberg Business flash. Faring, equities are here is a look with stocks up as investors shrugging off the weaker than expecting jobs report on numbers and wages appeared check out what is happening to currencies, the euro is on track for a weekly drop against the dollar after rising for six out of the last eight weeks. Bond, the ecb having trouble finding a consensus on its qe program . It may make a decision as late as december we are reporting today. So new touch screens. And biometrics. In 574 branches. All done by. Yesterday. Banks arent just undergoing a face lift. Theyre undergoing a transformation. A data fueled, security driven shift in applications and customer experience. Which is why comcast business delivers Consistent Network Performance and speed across all your locations. Hello, mr. Deets. Every Branch Running like headquarters. Thats how you outmaneuver. From london and new york, this is the european i am mark barton. A couple of Industry Groups lower today. Byers are up today, led basic resources, travel, and leisure. We are on track for a weekly gain, continuing that trend of alternating between weekly losses and gains that started six weeks again. Ago. Today, in the news reporting slower news growth, consumers opting for slower fiber lines. They are frances fourth biggest mobile carrier, intensifying a price for in the country that has resulted in sluggish sales growth. Offer mores that expensive options than iliad are andring exclusive content speedier connections. Iliad is off 5 today. Puttingening euro pressure on germanys export heavy dax. The largest monthly losing streak since february, falling for three consecutive months. August has typically been the worst month for the dax. The decline is lower than average drop of 2. 5 in the last 10 years. The strength of the euro continues to be a headache for companies not just in germany. Investors are looking for an earnings revival in europe. Outnumbered upgrades for nine straight weeks, which is what the chart shows. That is trailing global momentum by the most since 2014. It is worth keeping an eye on due to the strength of the euro in recent months. Vonnie thank you. We are keeping an eye on uber. We are turning to tech. Global Ridesharing Company has a new leader. The former chief executive of expedia is now charged with cleaning up over after the resignation of Travis Kalanic

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