Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20170915 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20170915

Coming up later on the program prepares to mark the 25th anniversary of black wednesday. That is Norman Lamont at 9 30. Lets get straight to your data check. Quite a lot going on in the markets. We are seeing a little bit of risk off. Stocks are mixed in europe. Edging lower and then going higher. What investors are nervous about is north koreas latest Missile Launch, raising geopolitical risks. Gold and yen showing markets are becoming immune to the provocation and diplomatic reaction. There is not much of an impact on yen. We are seeing pound, the 25th anniversary of, of course, what we saw in 1. 34w31. There is a little bit of movement on treasury. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news. Sebastian President Trump says he likes and respects janet yellen not made a decision on whether he will re nominate the Federal Reserve chair for another term. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin sets janet yellen is among those being considered to run the central bank. In the u. K. That leader of the house of commons said theresa will have to listen to lawmakers who oppose brexit. Said theresa may will have to listen to lawmakers who are postbrexit. Falling for a sixth straight day. China is said to have notified regional regulators in a Stock Exchange by the end of september. The plan was distribute by the ofples pabajknk china. The founder of alibaba says that it has played a role as a positive force. Jack ma spoke exclusively to bloomberg as company marked 18 years. Think 18 years is enough for us to improve globalization instead of killing globalization. N trade stops, war starts. Sebastian you can get more on our special halfhour program at 7 p. M. In london. Global news 20 pros a day powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Much. Ne thank you so north korea has fired another missile and this time it is far enough to put the u. S. Territory of guam in range. It flu over japans Northern Island before landing and the Pacific Ocean it flew over japans Northern Island. The u. S. Military says it traveled 3700 kilometers, further than the distance from pyongyang to guam. Our managing editor joins us from tokyo. First of all, is anything different about this launch . Said, itll, as you is the farthest missile test we have seen today. The one in late august was about 1000 kilometers shorter than this one. Of distance, it is farther, also a higher altitude than the one in late august. The flight path was pretty much the same, it flew over the Northern Island and fell into th the pacific. The real changes that guam is apparently within range. Francine why did japan not try to shoot it down . Well, you know, japan has Missile Defense systems, both systems that are on board ships, ship to air, as well as ground to air. I think there are two reasons. First of all, if japan starts launching projectiles into the sky to take missiles out of the sky, there is a risk that it could look like a shooting war egun. There is a greater risk of things spiraling out of control, accidents can happen. But i think the other thing is that there is a risk that attempting to do that might fail. Those Defense Systems that japan has work best when missiles are just taking off. Comingo weh missiles are back down. They do not work that well with a miss lizette peak a missile altitude. And i think the possibility they can attempt to shoot it down and fail would have been really disastrous in terms of the book sentiment, in terms of public sentiment and it wouldve played into north koreas hands. The best approach was to observe it, take data as best as possible and standby. Francine are people worried or are they getting more markets think the reacted very quickly and then bounceback. I think investors are getting a little bit immune to this. They have seen up before. People on the ground are concerned. We had a frontpage story in the National Daily and it was citing north korean propaganda that ran on thursday saying north korea is vowing to sink the entire, the archipelago of japan with an atomic bomb. Thats on the front page of one of the national dailies. People are worried about it and that is why they are looking for more leadership from Prime Minister abe. They want to see a concerted effort at restoring calm, not to sort of words and threats that would escalate tensions. Francine thank you so much, our managing editor for japan. Lets bring in the head of Global Fixed Income at j. P. Morgan Asset Management. Bob, great to have you on the program. It seems investors are immune to some of these geopolitical tensions. Is it because it is all the rhythms and they do not know how theyact, or do also not know how to price it in . Bob i think initially there has been some concern that they are seeing rational responses with the sanctions. It looks like everyone is trying to figure out where the line is and play chicken across the line or not. So, there is not that much concern for the bigger concern for the markets is the volume of money that keeps coming out of the q. E. And entering the markets. If you sit on cash too long, that pool of money is created and you start lagging. Francine what have is a something we happens with north korea . Geopolitics could turn. Are you worried that the market is taking too much in their strike . Are they complacent . Bob i do not know they are being complacent. I think it has been a fairly rational response. Dire happens too with north korea, then you would expect the risk off market and a pretty significant way and the money was come into Government Bonds. Francine what would that look like . Im trying to figure out. Isnow we buy yen but yen also because of japan directly implied in this is yen a safe haven or does it go on to gold or just dollar . Bob i think you look at what moved during august and i think that is when the tension was a bit higher. Gold certainly moved a lot. Yen did move a lot. The dollar i think should do ok. And, of course, g3 Government Bonds did well. Those will be the traditional safe haven assets that people will park money into until they see how things play out. Francine what are you waiting for . You mentioned Central Banks and policy mistakes. Is the fed now, is the risk that they hike too soon . Bob i think they are getting it about right. I think that janet yellen wants to leave having set forth a path for normalization. We expect next week they will begin the Balance Sheet run off. Another rate hike in december. We expect that she will leave in february. Few fedf the very chairs to leave without a recession occurring on their 10 year. Tenure. The last one was 40 years ago. I think they are in the right path. Policy is miles away from anything that looks normal. Weve got negative real yields all all over the place. With asset price distortion, Balance Sheets at Central Banks that are multiples of where they should be. This will take years to work out of the system, and i think Getting Started now is the proper response. Francine what is the most sordid asset bonds . Bob it has to be bonds. Francine which once . Ones bob the ones being bought. Gilts, european Government Bonds and still supporting the treasury markets. To some extent you mentioned complacency earlier. The market has become complacent about the zero and negative real yields that exist in the Government Bond market. How the Central Banks normalize and prevent bonds from imploding, that is the challenge. And that is why theyre taking such a gradual path in the normalization process. Francine this is boj, fed and ecb, the inflation gauge. Are we measuring inflation right . Bob so, thats the big question, because with all the Balance Sheet expansion and the paper money printer that has gone on, everyone is surprise that we are not seeing the traditional inflation measures much higher, particularly in the labor market. I think were measuring it correctly. I think just coming out of the financial crisis so much damage got done, it is just taking longer to heal and return to something that looks more normal. Inflation is there. It will surface again. Maybe yesterdays cpi report in the u. S. Is the first indication that the reports will come in a shade higher than the muted expectations. Francine he stays with us. Stay with surveillance. Plenty coming up, including the war of words. The Ecb Governing Council member defends the Central Banks low Interest Rates, saying germany has also benefited. We discuss that next. Billionaireibaba gives us exclusive insight into where he sees the future. This is bloomberg. Breaking news over the last half hour. Londons metropolitan police are confirming they are at the scene of an incident across from the green subway station. The underground operator says services have been cut along the line. We will have plenty more on that. In the meantime, lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Sebastian alphabet has held conversations with lyft in recent weeks. About one billion dollars could come from google. Alphabet and lyft declined to comment. Fortescues ceo will step down next year. The worlds fourthlargest iron ore exporter says it will consider internal and external candidates for the role. It reported fullyear profit double. Its assety is closing management following a 15 year run that ended with losses. The fund slumped 9. 4 to august. Manager posted a 31 return in 2008 by betting against u. S. And european banks during the financial crisis. And french insurer aixa is considering consolidation in the sector. The company is considering a merger or joint venture for the business. Potential partners could include but representatives for a xa declined to comment. Francine thank you so much, seb. Jens weidmann has defended the Central Banks low Interest Rates and targeted his comments ministerat a finance who has been an outspoken critic of the policy. Its not the german finance minister does not benefit from low rates. The impression youre giving is that low rates are just a benefit of specific countries in the euro area only. That is not the case. It is good news for every finance minister when the latter has to pay less under lower rates. Francine still with us is bob michel at jp morgan. Is that right . Low rates are good. Bob they certainly are. Who would not want to fund themselves at the lowest possible rate . Francine overall the conversation we are having in germany as whether Jens Weidmann will replace mario draghi, if schauble stays. Are you bullish on europe . Bob we are. We see a lot of growth, we see the benefit from a currency that had revalued. We see a Banking System that is healing, corporate profitability quite high. Things look pretty interesting. You do mention who could be the potential successor to draghi . It sounds to me like weidmann is putting his name in the hat by his i think rather conciliatory comments. There are other candidates out there. What about mark carney . Francine yeah. I think mark carney, that is an interesting thing. What would be an ecb composition under mark carney . Bob i think what would be an ecb that is more dynamic, that does not move to a policy range and sit there, but actually takes incoming data, is willing to move rates around and perhaps willing to be more aggressive in tapering q. E. It looks like ecb policy to us is outdated. There is no emergency. Rate, a negative real much less a negative absolute rate and continuing to expand the Balance Sheet is something that is three or four years old. Francine i never thought of that. The president could be from a country that is not in the eurozone. Bob he has an irish passport. Francine where do you see value in terms of bonds . Now. Creditight still looks good to us i know its come under a lot of criticism. And no one more than myself would like to buy credit at a wider spread at a higher yield. But you cant. In corporate profitability looks good. Earnings look very good. And there is a floaw that come i n from asia, particular, japan, that is looking Something Back to yen that makes sense and that is the credit market. So, i dont want to fight it. Maybe this Time Next Year when the fed is well into taping, maybe the ecb will have one itsd wound down q. E. Right now it seems like you are fighting the flow. Francine thank you so much. Bob michele at jp morgan. Ibaba celebrates its 18th anniversary, jack m gives his input. This is bloomberg. Francine you are watching bloomberg surveillance. Already dominating the market in china, alibaba is looking at ways to expand its business internationally. The Company Shares have doubled despite shortsellers sayhining its poised for a fall. Jack ma says he does not expect another tech bubble to burst. Stephen engle caught up with him in china. The think next 18 years, globalization, will be much better because the internet. Because this is our mission. Said, electronic world trade platform. We are making sure a small business, young people can benefit from that. And i think 18 years is enough for us to improve globalization instead of killing globalization. I believe when trade stocks, war starts. We never changed our u. S. Strategy. We want to help small and companies that sell to asia. We do not want to go to the u. S and be the local ecommerce company, amazon and ebay its all over the usa. Stephen you do not want to take on amazon . How about an entertainment . I know you had a partnership with amblin and steven spielberg. You have been the tortoise there not the hare. What is your strategy . Prepared ali entertainment for 10 years. We have seven years to go. So, the important is not going there to buy Movie Company or by this and buy that. All the stuff,y you have to learn from them trade you have to partner with them. That i think there are a lot of things china entertainment can learn from hollywood to partner with them. She not think about that is good, lets buy it. Stephen you talked about the coming winter in 2007 when you listed alibaba. Come. Winter came pretty quickly with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and we saw the collateral damage. I was watching your progress through the tech bubble. So, you have had these challenges that wiped familiar names off the board. Are we facing a similar kind of tech bubble right now with these billiondollar unicorns and inflated techs . Are there any similarities . Jack no, not very much. I think the challenge at that time, a lot of people did not understand how powerful the internet is. And whether the internet consisting. So, people were jumping i found a a lot of people had crazy ideas but does not know how to operate and does not know how to make their dream happen. Knowsday, everybody internet is powerful and change human history. And also, i think the infrastructure of the internet. The infrastructure of technology is much better than 1015 years ago. If you are not that greedy, if youre not that stupid and crazy, its easy to survive today. Ma. Cine that is jack you can catch plenty more of that interview this evening. Up next, head of tomorrows 26th anniversary of black wednesday we speak to the u. K. Chancellor at the time. This is bloomberg. Francine welcome to our weekly brexit show it in london. A quick update on a developing story. Londons metropolitan police in apples today are at the scene of an incident at the green underground station in the southwest of the capital. They report an explosion on the carriage injured several passengers. Services have been suspended. Now lets get a roundup of all of the weeks big brexit news. Governmentsk. Plan for taking the country out of the European Union cleared a major hurdle. In the early hours of tuesday, lawmakers agree to allow the e. U. Withdrawal bill to continue its progress through parliament by 326 votes to 290. Sterling searched the highest in the year against the dollar as the bank of a win signal it could raise Interest Rates sooner than thought. Inflation hit 2. 9 , mark carney confirmed he is among the majority of officials who see a need for tightening soon. To return inflation to that 2 target in ia sustainable manner, there may need to be some adjustments in Interest Rates in the coming months. We will take the decision based on the data. Sebestian negotiators postponed next weeks round of talks. They will now gather on september 26. Meanwhile, it was announced the u. K. Prime minister will take her brexit Charm Offensive deep into the historic heart of europe with a speech in florence. Next friday, theresa may argue that britain can work closely with the e. U. After leaving the bloc. The chancellor promised the European Union that he said the u. K. Will push for greater transparency, cooperation and standardsbased on international norms. Global news 24 hours a days powered by 2400 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much, seb. Now joining us is the former u. K. Chancellor and u. K. s trade envoy to iran, Norman Lamont. It is great to catch up to we catch up every couple of months. I can have your thinking on important matters such as brexit negotiations. What is your main take away from this week . A lot of negotiations have been halted. Are we going to get a deal sooner than expected, or is there a bigger chance that we crash out of the e. U. . Mr. Lamon

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