And businesses, it is blamed for 16 deaths in puerto rico. Killedt 22 people were and Dozens Injured after a stampede on a crowded pedestrian railwayonnecting to stations in mumbai. Police are investigating what caused the stampede which led some commuters to leap over the railing. Others were crushed or phil and were trampled. European commissioner john klug junker saidde [inaudible] global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Julie live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. We are 30 minutes from the close of trading. Is what youstion miss . Breaking news moments ago. President trump says he will in twofed chair decision to three weeks this after reports he met with Jerome Powell and kevin marsh. The rest of europe will be watching how he independent vote shakes out. The world could have a new fed chair nominee in two to three President Trump has been interviewing candidates including Jerome Powell and kevin warsh. We did see a Market Reaction when the headlines came out. The journal talking about Jerome Powell. Forhat good news perhaps the Financial Markets . It depends on whether they want high Interest Rate rates or low Interest Rates. Julie what will we get from him . The dollar reaction when it as a logical reaction. I thought we would get a bigger reaction. We are used to a certain type of fed, yellen sitting a cautious tone and here we can get a guy in that has a fundamentally different outlook. Picture, janet yellen and Jerome Powell, what do you make of the Smoke Signals were getting in terms of how this white house is approaching the fed chair question and how do you make a Market Forecast or think about the market given this uncertainty . Guest a couple of weeks ago we had only a few basis points tightening the price and very little the next year. This news is coming at a time when we have very little price, we were in the process of getting optimistic about tax reform. I think it is not only that there is some hawkish names floating around, there was also john allison we have not heard much about before who is at the extreme side of the spectrum on the hawkish side. We also have some other vacant seat so it is not just a chair that could be a different type of person. It could be the whole kind of flavor of the board can change. I think it is likely to go in a more hawkish direction, and is a matter of how much. At work i am looking go. Lets go back to the start of september and the odds were for 1. 4 . Does all this interviewing by President Trump of said candidates influence the way in december because if janet yellen is no longer fed chair she is thinking about how she wants to meet that normalization. Guest they have the Balance Sheet shrinkage underway. That is important preparation for a change in the chair. I think in terms of what they decide at the december meeting, i think they have a pretty clear framework for now. It is right with the market has done to prices with a reasonably high confidence. The only thing that can go wrong as if we get low inflation prints and the meantime. The bigger issue for the market is that if he comes in as new governor and we get a couple of other hawkish appointments they need to think about for hikes next year. That used to be the traditional pace of fed tightening. There are people who have memories from the last tightening cycle where the Housing Market went too far because the fed went too slowly. That argument could come into the equation. That is something we have not been thinking about. From a training aspect that is interesting. Coming inton is three weeks a pretty rapidly. Take a look at the bloomberg, we are showing the bloomberg dollar index in blue and the spreads between the twoyear yield and 10 year yield. It looks like we have seen a bottoming. Lets listen in. President trump the real question is what is going to happen later. It is a tough situation. The loss of life is always tragic. It has been incredible, the results that we have had with respect to loss of life. People cannot believe how successful that has been, relatively speaking. I cannot hear you. [inaudible] President Trump they president governor of puerto rico has been generous, he has been praising our efforts and this is difficult. This is a total devastation. When you look at texas and florida, it is a different level. Nobody has seen. When you have a category five wipe out an island, you have nothing. You do not have roads, you do not have the people to operate the equipment. That is why we have hundreds of Truck Drivers being brought in to the island to operate the trucks because those people have lost their homes so they are not able to do it. Have lost their homes. They are unable to do it. It is a tough situation. [inaudible] President Trump i can tell you this. We have done an incredible job considering there is nothing to work with. Question is what will we do with the power plant because the power plant has been wiped out. It is not like lets go back and fix it. There is nothing. The power grid is gone. We have a lot of Big Decisions and youre talking about the dollars that you are talking about are tremendous and it will be talking with the democrats and talking to congress about what we are going to do a little bit longer term. In the meantime we have saved a lot of lives and we have done a good job. Were bringing the people the distribution. [inaudible] President Trump in cuba . The problem we have had in cuba and will be coming out with something but there was a big problem in cuba. We will be announcing that fairly soon. [inaudible] trump were looking at puerto rico, that is a big thing you are talking about. Where spending hundreds of millions of dollars right now, it is a territory and these are great people. I know the people very well. These are great people that it is a massive investment. You are free building all of it. Rebuilding all of it at some point. There are hundreds of millions, a tremendous amount of money ricody invested in puerto by others before the storms. That money has been in serious trouble. Now on top of it, a lot of other money. Made, whathas to be are you going to do . Rhetoric go was flattened. And a big decision comes as to what are we going to do but ims there to help, i can tell you that. [inaudible] President Trump we have great secretaries and we have some that own their own planes. No moret in order that planes. If you look at past administrations, if you look at the Obama Administration and you take a look at the amount of time that they spent in the air, they spend a lot of time in the air. I felt very badly because the secretary secretary price is a good man but we are looking into it and looking into it very strongly. We will take a look. I will be announcing something in the pretty near future. [inaudible] greatent trump i have a cabinet. We have saved hundreds of millions of dollars through negotiation. X35 higher plane, me, myself, i saved hundreds of millions of dollars in negotiating. That is one of the reasons i do not like seeing anybody have a question about flying. Were saving tremendous amounts of money the matter where we go. You look at what we have done in florida or texas, we have done that for relatively little compared to what other people. I do not like to see that happen and it is a shame because as a human being, tom price is a very good man. I can tell you. That is unacceptable. That would be unacceptable. [inaudible] President Trump i have had four meetings with for the fed chairman. I will be making a decision that in the next few weeks. All rock has done a fantastic job at fema. Elaine duke is acting and working very hard. I think what fema has done has been incredible between all these hurricanes and doing so well but we will be making that decision within a month. Homeland security, yes. [inaudible] President Trump i have spoken to other owners and i think it is coming together. I noticed last night or i was told, i did not see it but i heard everybody stood for the National Anthem and that shows respect for our country, our flag and for the National Anthem. I am very happy. Happy i heard that and they should stand. You have to stand. It is our National Anthem, you have to stand. I spoke to numerous team owners. I did speak to jerry. It is not a question of confidence. I did not like it cosmetically or otherwise. I was disappointed. Administration that saves hundreds of millions of dollars on renegotiating things, on new trade deals that you will be seeing the results very soon create we are renegotiating nafta, we are rain negotiating many Different Things and making so much better deals. You will be see and seeing other things,. I do not like to see someone that perhaps it was the perception it was not right. To say but we will be announcing something today. [inaudible] President Trump we will be announcing something today. I am not aware of that, i heard but imery ministerial not aware of it. Anything else . He always treats me so nicely. [inaudible] President Trump probably something will happen, something will be announced area and i think he is a fine person. I certainly do not like the optic. We renegotiate deals, we are deals,iating trade renegotiating the f35 fighter plane. I saved hundreds of millions of dollars so i do not like the optics of what you just said. [inaudible] President Trump some very bad things happened in cuba. Very bad rings. You will see what is happening. The good some bad things. [inaudible] President Trump probably sometime today. I am not happy, ok . I can tell you. Julie that is President Trump on the white house lawn commenting on puerto rico before his visit to the island next week in the wake of the devastation from the hurricane. Things going about on and how he will make a decision on the fate of tom price as health and Human Services secretary following reports he had been chartering private jets to fly around the country. He said he is disappointed and not happy but tom price is a good man. He commented on the National Anthem and his argument with the National Football league. Joe kind of hitting all the big stores stories. Scarlet and the fed chair. Joe he was talking about how his administration saves money and that is what he does not like the cosmetics of the price story. Lets get back to the fed, the most relevant of that wide ranging conversation. That decision coming into or inee weeks so lets bring our guest. I was about to ask about a chart and want to look at that looks at the dollar in the spread between the twoyear and 10 year yield. A bottoming. It is not that we have seen that much of a rebound from that bottom but we have seen a little one. Do you plot out different scenarios based on if it is yellen or powell, or if tax reform happens, if it does not happen, or do you figure out first which is the most likely of the scenarios and it on that . Guest if you have to make a bet you have to do it on a pillow on a probability weighted runion or you will get over. You have to look at it with all the different scenarios in mind. What is interesting about these comments now is we have a timetable. If this is about a matter of weeks this could move the dollar in the short term. If you pretty important, have options strategies and play you have to focus these in the next few weeks. Scarlet do you think we will see new lows for the dollar . we have had a huge move in the dollar from the Center Summer of 14 till this year and a retracement that lasted till Early September and the dollar has been gaining for weeks. With this momentum around the and iair, on tax reform think also some factors, this move could have some further legs. We will go to have a fulltime high on the dollar. Joe i am looking at bloombergs inry, and it trumps hype Trumps White House everything is coming in two weeks. Things have been said before and they do not come to pass. One more question about the fed decision. Sometimes there is a thing that people say about this white house, they do not know where he stands on certain policies talking about President Trump. He said he did not like a strong dollar and he called himself a low Interest Rate guy and he is super into the stock market and tweeted about the s p 500 today. He would be shooting himself in the foot and not consistent with what he said if he were to hikent a hawk that might four times next year and disrupt what is going pretty well for him. Complex is a pretty decision. All the factors are pointing to the decision youre describing and he is catering to constituencies about that are conservative about what the fed should be allowed to do. With the names floating around, there are a bunch of them that are fairly hawkish and that is the key. We have been used to a cautious fed for many years now and if there is some shakeup around that, it is important to the market. Scarlet lets get your thoughts on bitcoin. As i do nots me know where the there is there. Block Chain Technology is important and being used i more realtime Financial Transactions but the exchanges themselves them to be have a little bit aughtont fr attached to them. Do you look at when you look at capital flows into bitcoin, out of bitcoin, and what it tells you about how money is moving around the world . Jens the reasons we have been watching this is we can use it as a measure of capital flight. If you look at how the coin is trading in different countries, sometimes there is a premium in china and especially in the second half of last year where there was a lot of capital flight out of china. The bitcoin premium was correlated with that so we used it to infer something about what is going on with the broader capital flows. It is not that we have strong views about whether there is a bubble. You have to be careful about going into the debate because it is a must like a religious one. We wrote a letter about this on our website. We were careful about going into this debate but we get so many questions we put out of you and we tried not to be too controversial but still some people got angry. Joe you are saying it is not the absolute level that your most interested in per se. Relative price on exchanges in different countries. China versus japan versus korea. The relative differences can tell us something about the state of capital control and the urge to circumvent them. Jens there were times that there were capital controls in place in china and it looked like tivo used up the coin market to escape and therefore they are willing to pay extra command to premium to trade in those countries. Are there any flows that you see in the bitcoin market that tell you Something Else . Jens china has tried to ease control so it will be less relevant but maybe there is a new region where it pops up. We are using it to track Global Capital view rather than having a view on howcoim bitcoin will go. A Catalonian Referendum is scheduled for this weekend. Does this have an impact on currency markets . At what point would it disrupt the european economy and the trading of European Assets . Learned this year around the French Election that politics really matter and even on monday morning when trading opened, the general election did have an impact area this is the next one. It is different from the other situations because the federal government has said this referendum is not valid. Whatost important is degree of social unrest will come out of that. It is not so much the voting percentages but is it going to drive demonstrations, maybe this is something that creates a movement underground that could spiral out of control. That i think is the most important. Joe is there a risk, investors have not cared about this story area did not much impact in spanish equities. Could there be a moment when people wake up and say see mass civil unrest and start to get nervous . Go back towe have to greece where we saw demonstrations on the tv screens and that could move the markets. If we see nasty pictures like nothing ist really priced that could move the market. Is time for the stock of the hour, it is revlon. They have been on an eightday rally of more than 70 . Revlon is taking a dramatic turn today. What is going on . 17 and down around 10 or 11 . We have an intraday chart we can 7 . You and that drop of. Hy it is not clear analysts note changes in peoples positions or anything like that. I was looking into this with one of our market producers. If you take a look at the five year you fiveyear chart, that might help figure out what is going on. If you look at performance here year to date it has pretty choppy. If you look back a few years, if you bought the stock last years price may have seen it seemed like a good time to get out since the company is having a rough time. Joe the stock is up over 70 . We do not know what caused the sale. Did people offer any theories for the massive surge since the middle of september . He had increased his stake, and it is above anybody else who has 5 . That stock rallied, people thought he was evidence that revlons come back was a motion. Maybe he will take the company pr