Also, later we will speak to the iea about the u. S. Shale surge. Two great guests coming up in a couple seconds. European stocks are shrugging off a little bit of the declines we saw in asia. Better than expected german data, boosting sentiment there. Some of the most powerful central bankers gather in frankfurt that is definitely what we are looking up for. The Italian Economy sure, they did not qualify during the world cup, but the economy expanded better than thought. The 10 year briefly breaching 3 for the first time in 10 years. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news. Chief house tax writer says he has enough republican votes to pass the tax legislation this week. Kevin brady says he does not anticipate any major changes. Meanwhile, the white house says President Trump will speak about taxes thursday morning. And the house ways and Means Committee chair kevin brady joins us at six a copy of u. K. Time. Roy moore is facing a fresh allegation of sexual assault. The former alabama judge of celtic a young the former alabama judge assaulted a young girl which he was 16. He was called on to drop out of the campaign, even as moore continues to deny the allegation. Moore attacked me when i was a child. I did nothing to deserve his sexual attack. I was frightened by his position and his power. I am coming forward today because i want mr. Moore to know that he no longer has any power over me. U. K. s chief brexit negotiator says it is 5050 if he gets a break during talks by december. David davis briefed yesterday. The pound has fallen further amid the stall brexit talks and the internal political struggles faced by theresa may. Theresa may told putin that britain was ready to fight back during his attempt to destabilize democracy. Donald trump that on saturday that he believes putins denial over the election meddling were sincere. Theresa may we know what you were doing and you will not succeed because you underestimate the resilience of our democracies, the enduring attraction of free societies and the commitment of western nations to the alliances that bind us. Nejra chinas economic is c expansion dialed back. A 6. 6 re down from expansion the previous month. Retail sales rose 10 , missing forecasts. While fixed Asset Investment grew 7. 3 , matching estimates. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. Im nejra cehic. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you. Europes economy is getting traction. Figures released in a little less than an hour time is excited to show the eurozone gv adp at 2. 5 . The heads of the worlds most influential Central Banks will be in frankfurt. In the next hour, we will hear from the panel, which includes janet yellen, mario draghi, mark carney and kuroda. Executive editor for global ralph. Cs is here, as is ralph, let me take it off with you. Is this a communication concern, or is this the markets misunderstanding what Central Banks are telling them . Ralph i dont think we can see any signs of freaking out. The market remains sanguine as ever about what Central Banks might might not be trying to tell us. The big question is, how do we square on the one hand the increasingly synchronized global recovery. It seems to beginning strength from the external side, so we might see a little bit of a contradiction. We continue to see strong data out of the u. S. Gdp data suggests 3 growth in the third quarter. When you are talking about communication challenges, i think the communication , what is themore market trying to tell the rest of the world that we do not see in the data . But the yes, markets are saying one thing and Central Banks are saying and other. Who is right . Thats a big question. That will be the big theme for 2018. Who is right . The markets prediction that inflation will remain weak is correct. You want a bit more certainty from the central bank. The best guess is the inflation in the u. S. Will pick up to the target. The bankers, the economists, interestingly enough, seem to be sticking with the central bank. Francine do you worry about the flattening yield curv eie in the u. S. . What is underlying this what the fed does, or is it something more sinister . I dont think it is anything sinister. I think it is the market not wanting to give up on the policy of trade. I think there are a lot of people buying fixed income to protect other asset classes, be it credit or equities. Long treasuries act as a hedge against that with some kind of flattening exposure. But if the u. S. Yield curve is to be believed, then the u. S. Rate hike is close to a 10. That is not something the fed will be happy about. We got the first comments from harker last week, directly challenging the flatness of the curve. Francine actually, he can yesterday on bloomberg, harker. He basically said the u. S. Yield curves would not invert. In the past, this was the sign of a recession. Does this mean we are pointing at a recession . Economy that accelerates now we are at 3 it doesnt look like an economy that is close to the end of its life cycle. Francine who has the toughest job on the allstar panel . It is probably governor kuroda, yet again. Probably, though mark carney has a lot too. He must explain the breach of the target. Janet yellen seems to put the fed on a gradual path. And kuroda, yes. His opinion. Obviously, he is a bit more certain now, as to whether he will be reappointed. There were some signs that inflation data is starting to pick up. Francine is there a communication problem amongst the central bankers . This goes back to the old, philosophical questions. You have to be transparent, but if you are too transparent, to the markets rely too much on your transparency . You hold the hand of the markets and you do so in a way when you need to change direction, it happens with a bit of a jolt. The view of Central Banks will show more that transparency is the best policy and they are trying as best as they can to provide some direction and some guidance. Sometimes that comes with a health check. Francine who communicates . Doesnt it make your life easier, or harder . Does it make your life easier, or harder . We have gotten Clear Communications from the fed. Recently the ecb has pulled off a difficult october meeting. The fed has not really changed its message for a while while. It is more the issue of the market not believing it. Of england and japan have the toughest jobs ahead of them, or maybe even behind them, in the case of the big new england. Francine thank you. Ralf preusser stays with us. I have my voice back, which is always a good thing on a tuesday. Coming up, we speak to bestselling author michael itis about his book and how outlined the framework for economi psychology. The u. S. Shale surge is the biggest oil and gas boom in history. We will go through that, and the bromance between saudi and russia. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance and im Francine Lacqua in london. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra at t will try to dig into when the white house influence the justices review of the plan takeover of time warner. According to people familiar with the matter, in the event of a trial over the 85. 4 billion deal, at t can seek permission for access to communications between the white house and the doj. At t and time warner declined to comment, whether Justice Department referred to earlier statements by the department and white house. Credit suisse will pay 135 Million Dollars to resolve currency manipulation allegations by new yorks banking regulator. The department of Financial Services said traders at the zurichbased bank shared information about clients orders and talk to traders from other banks. The regulator said in some instances, they front ran customer orders to boost the banks profits. The lead management has amassed a position in more Entertainment Centers and will push for changes in the company. Has held discussions with the company and is urging it to explore been taken private, among other options. Elliott declined to comment. Taubmanentative from did not immediately reply. Francine in the u. S. The chief house tax writer says he is confident that there are enough republican votes to pass the tax plan. Meanwhile, the white house says President Trump will speak about taxes at a full conference of House Republicans on thursday. Joining us for the latest developments from washington, stephanie baker, our Global Business correspondent. Ralf preusser is still with us. Stephanie what exactly have we learned overnight and are we closer to any kind of deal . Stephanie yeah, i think we are not expected to see any significant amendments. There will be minor changes. It is supposed to go to a vote this thursday or friday. Um, you know, i think the bigger issue here is they are asking House Republicans to vote on a bill that will still be far from what the final will look like because they still have to go through a process called reconciliation with the senate. The senate bill is less radical in many respects than the house bill. So, the final version will look like different. They are far apart on many issues, including when the Corporate Tax rate deduction cut comes into force. Whether to appear estate taxes, whether to get rid of deductions for local and state taxes. So, there are a lot of things that need to be worked out over the next month, if they are to get it passed by christmas. Francine so, what happened thursday . Stephanie thursday the house is expected that would be the earliest to vote. That is when trump is expected to go to the hill and urge them to pass this. Of course, democrats have called the house tax bill sort of classic trickledown economics, saying it is not going to work. They have not been included in the process. Of course, there have been a slew of studies out, saying the majority of the tax cuts go to the wealthy. Indeed, if you look at the house plan, it is 1. 5 trillion in tax cuts in 1 trillion of that is accounted for by the Corporate Taxes, and about 200 billion is estater retaipeal of the tax. This will be a battle and it will carry on through the november 2018 midterm elections. Francine how much does this impact your world, ralf . This is in fact fed thinking, even if they dont say it . Ralf i would argue is probably does. We have to bear in mind that the u. S. Economy has strengthened quite formidably. That is something the fed probably did not expect. Thats point number one. Point number two is the question, why is the market as skeptical as it is . It does not expect anything to be passed. Or two, to stephanies point about trickle down, they dont expected to have any impact on the real economy down the line. Francine not even gdp on the margins . Ralf gdp down the margins, that is the point, i think. Even if it is skeptical about the longterm growth impact of this tax plan, because of the use of scoring, because of the is of subtext scores, there shock potentially coming on the back of his tax plan. And that i dont think the market is paying enough attention to. Francine does whatever happens with this tax repose only to be combined with big corporations . Stephanie again, thats another area where they are far apart. Theres a lot of details to be worked out. The plan is to shift under the senate plan from a worldwide taxation system to a territorial. That is a huge change. There are a lot of different loopholes that could be introduced when they do that. You know, i dont think they have had enough time to study the full impact of that and to make sure that new loopholes are not introduced as they close down old ones. Francine do you have, falf, an idea . We dont exactly know what shape or form this will take. Does that help with inflation or wage growth . Or not at all . Ralf it depends very much on what the money is being used for. That is actually quite important. A corporate user has a massive bance sheet. Delevy my colleagues in highgrade in the u. S. Remain quite bullish on credit. The main impact of this repatriation is on the dollar. Some believe this is a big deal for the dollar. We dont think the majority of the money that sits abroad is actually help in u. S. Dollars. I think a lot of it sits outside of the u. S. So, i think there is potentially ilwind coming from another repatriation. Francine we will talk to ralf about brexit next. Stephanie baker, as always, thank you. Ralf preusser stays with me and we will talk about boe, brexit and of course, theresa may. The u. S. Ways and Means Committee chair kevin brady also joins us at 6 00 p. M. U. K. Time. Will u. K. Inflation come in at higher than 3 . We discuss that next. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance and im Francine Lacqua in london. Raise it talks drag on without finding a clear solution. Mark carney the bank of england say it is an inflation problem. Cpi from october is due out in a few moments. 3 would force mark carney to write to the exchequer and a fine. Is it a goodf all, deal if you have to write to the chancellor . It does not look good on your chancellorsevious have done it before. Ralf exactly. It is that of mark carneys hands. I dont think he will be losing any sleep over this. Francine what is your Inflation Expectation . Let me bring you over to my chart. Its an easy chart, looking at u. K. Time. In purple, its the total goods. The six planes what is going on with inflation. Exactly, what we are seeing are the impacts of fx weakeness passing through to headline inflation. The less interesting story in my mind is not how we got where we are, but rather, we are we going from here. Artyou believe this chanc and others like it, you could be too pessimistic about how quickly inflation could start normalizing next year, in the sense that it should be symmetric. Gful a fairly meetinanin correction. Francine this is the transition deal from december . The transition deal is mechanical. If we can Start Talking about transition deals, sterling would get a bit of a bounce in that could accelerate if we dont. We need weakness and sterling cannot be disregarded entirely, but moderated towards the next tier. Francine are we starting a hiking cycle, or was it one and done . Ralf personally, i dont understand why we got even one atrate hike in. I think a lot of the arguments that were put forward by, even some of the more dovish members, have already been called into question. An important element to this. I think that is optimism we have to reflect in the bank of england and over the next few months, that is when we have to start regulating to years end. Francine up next, we speak to Michael Lewis and we talk about traders, but also his money. The bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance and im Francine Lacqua in lndon. You can see a beautiful live picture of london town. We get cpi figures from here in the u. K. In 20 seconds. The concern, if you are mark carney, is many of us have to deal with brexit negotiations starting. The secretary recommended it was a close 5052 whether or not we got a breakthrough in the divorce with the eu by december. The cpi just coming through. It is actually at core year on , and that is for the month of october. What this means is it is a little bit shy of the 3. 1 excitation. Although mark carney is in frankfurt. A bit of a sigh of relief. At 3 , know if it is but at least it is not 3. 1 . Ralf preusser expect inflation to normalize. We will keep a watch on the panel the back of the cpi figures. Nejra the chief has tax writer is confident that there are enough republican votes to pass the legislation this week. Kevin brady does not anticipate any major changes. The white house says President Trump will speak about taxes at a full conference of House Republicans thursday morning. Kevin brady joins us at six cop p. M. U. K. Time kevin brady joins us at 6 00 p. M. U. K. Time. Comes as Mitch Mcconnell told him to pull out of the race as he continues to deny the allegation. Mr. Moore attacked me when i was a child. I did nothing to deserve this sexual attack. I was frightened by his position and his power and im i want rward today, mr. Moore to know he no longer has any power over me. The u. K. s chief brexit negotiator is 50 50 whether he gets talks by november. He briefed at a meeting yesterday and his spokesman said it was categorically untrue davis said that. The pound has fallen further amid the brexit talks and internal struggles faces by Prime Minister teresa may. Teresa may told Vladimir Putin britain was ready to fight back in an attempt to destabilize western democracy and comments with donald trump said usda he believed putins denial of russian meddling was sincere. We know what you are doing and you will not succeed because you underestimate the resilience of our democracies, the enduring attraction of free and open societies. And commitment of western nations of the alliances that bind us. Global news powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. Our next guest is a bloomberg columnist and bestseller of classics including liar, pokers, flash ball and the big shorts and some were made in oscar nominated films. The latest book is the undoing project and tells a story of two israeli psychologists who Work Together who result in the behavior economics. Were pleased to be joined by Michael Lewis. Congratulations. Its been out a year ago and is on paper book and is a fantastic book. You get attached to the two main characters. But you basically talk about how a lot of our decisions are based on memories, right . Michael one of their insights, the way memory distorts judgment and whatever youve just seen or heard or things that are vivid take exaggerated importance in your mind. A simple example is the point is youre moving through the world and implicitly cal