Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20240714 : vimarsan

BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss July 14, 2024

America discuss migrants. What mcaleenan called for he described as concrete International Actions investigations and in traditions. Panama has been the bridge for migrants seeking to reach the u. S. Border. It is also a route for cocaine moving up from south america. Emmanuel macron gave Boris Johnson little hope he is winning to compromise on brexit. Macron told the british Prime Minister that any changes to the current deal will not be very significant. Johnson is demanding the eu scrap the backstop, the mechanism designed to keep the irish border free of checks. That is a key part of the agreement. The two men met in paris. Jeremy corbyn meantime says he will do everything he can to prevent the u. K. From leaving the eu without a deal. That includes calling a noconfidence vote in Prime Minister johnsons government. And if it succeeds, competing in the ensuing general election with a pledge to hold a Second Public vote on brexit. I agree with president macron. The question of the argus border is fundamental to a lot of things. The irish Peace Process was an enormous step forward. It is an international treaty, an international agreement. It cannot be negotiated away by Boris Johnson anybody else. I think president macron is quite right to say they will not allow a hard border to return in ireland. Mark speaking during a visit to a hellfire, Jeremy Corbyn warned of the damage that a no deal brexit could lead to jobs, services, and industries. He added that the principle is we will do everything we can to ensure that no deal is taken off the table. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Romaine from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, this is Bloomberg Markets the close. Im romaine bostick. Caroline im Caroline Hyde. We are about 30 minutes from the end of the trading day. It has been a politically volatile one. , but something between gains and losses. The nasdaq has been the under performer on the day. Software companies coming out with earnings. Romaine quite a few, hp. Caroline oil has been selling off. Got the pmi number out of the u. S. Much worse than we received. More than 2009 over also money coming out of oil and gold. Safety really today. Romaine not a huge drop but still significant that it is dropping below the key technical levels. That can change tomorrow depending on what we hear from powell. The s p 500 staying in the green. We will see if it can hang in. It has been fluctuating between gains and losses. The dollar has been in a tight range all day long. The 1210 number. 1208 to 1212 has been the range for this for quite some time. Caroline the market is just bracing for powell tomorrow. Romaine absolutely. These are the homebuilders here. This is the main etf that tracks the homebuilders. Right now at a 62 week high. It has been on fire. I guess a lot of the sentiment seems to be changing. We got some comments out of the homebuilders and home depot and lowes. Some people are interpreting that as a positive sign for the industry as a whole. Caroline not bad this week. Romaine thats right. Time for our top calls. Cut top, Toll Brothers market perform from outperform at wells fargo. 39 price target. The analyst saying the homebuilder lacks the catalyst over the near to intermediate term to drive goals. Shares up 1. 9 . Next, oppenheimer cutting tiffanys. The price target down to 100 from 115 115. Weakernext, oppenheimer cutting Tourist Spending could hurt topline trends this quarter and next. Again, shares up 1 . Finally, etsy upgraded to buy from hold with a 70 price target. The analyst says the stock is trading at an attractive valuation following the recent share declines. Shares today up about 1. 7 . Those are some of your top calls. Caroline Software Earnings about to come thick and fast. In bracing for the key cloud providers. Embracing for the key cloud providers. Salesforce. It is interesting. We look to germany and the rival there. Not looking so pretty. What do we expect . Salesforce should not have any issues from china or the macro concerns. The booking date it was good in the last quarter, which generally translates going forward. We are watching for any macro comments that they come up with, but we feel microsoft and salesforce are two companies that are diversified and have a strong folio of products and should be able to do better than other companies. Romaine salesforce has been a darling for a lot of investors. They have managed to continue this momentum through a lot of acquisitions, but the acquisition made of Tableau Software and click software, investors were a little bit concerned about how those were pulled off. Anurag this is part of salesforces strategy for a long period of time. They bought a very Interesting Company not that long ago and then acquired tableau, which has been a very interesting acquisition. They provide products that are different from marketing, from commerce, to sales, to customer service. When you build on top of it Something Like tableau, you can visualize all the different data across different areas. You can see it in one go. That is why these two acquisitions are interesting. Over the next 12 months, we think it will add good revenue for the company. Caroline salesforce has a dominant scale in europe. We are seeing bny, which is exposed to europe. We got germany today and back to concerns. Is this putting off spending in the area . Anurag over the next one or two quarters, we should see some pullback in overall spending. Pulling back all cloud players a little bit and will impact companies. We view microsoft and salesforce in a better position than most other ones. It will be interesting for vmware it will be interesting for vmware. We will hear a lot of questions about that particular acquisition because it will have an impact on their margins going forward. Romaine questioning the financial ramifications of that deal, some of the Corporate Governance issues. What can they say to investors that will make them a little more at ease . Anurag anurag they will try to pitch the hybrid cloud strategy. Vmware wants to make sure they are in the game for the upcoming spending area. Caroline great that you spent some time with us before a very busy session for you. Be talkingwe will amazon because it is launching an offensive. Why the Worlds Largest retailer is helping thirdparty merchants with sales. This is bloomberg. Lets get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. The family and ceo of overstock. Com has resigned. Entanglements with the deep state. He released a statement saying he was part of a federal investigation related to any 16 2016 elections. Shares higher on the news. Apple is getting ready to unveil new hardware for the coming weeks and months. Among the devices, three iphones, ipads, and the largest laptop in years. The pro iphone will feature a new camera system. Reportgen is denying a it ceo would be interested in buying a stake in tesla. Vw calls the report unfounded speculation. Ceomagazine says the vw would invest in the electric carmaker immediately if he could. That is your business flash update. Romaine amazon is launching a 15 billion charm offensive. The Worlds Largest online retailer is planning to spend money to help the thirdparty merchants with sales. This as amazon continues to be sick for wielding too much power over its sellers. For more, lets bring in matt day joining us now from seattle. 15 billion. That is a big number. I assume amazon has something in place already to help the sellers. What is the increase we are talking about . Matt we really dont know. It is my understanding amazon looked all throughout their services and basically analyzed, what part of what we are spending on those folks and buildings is geared to our thirdparty marketplace . Tally all of that up. Figure that to be 15 billion this year. Amazon would not say because it is the first time it calculated the speaker before if it was up or down or unchanged from last year. It is largely to quantify exactly how much they are investing in an ongoing basis in the thirdparty merchants. Caroline i like that turn of phrase, optics. I hate to be a cynic, but any optics why they are doing this at the moment . Matt that is definitely part of the backdrop. Amazons thirdparty marketplace is getting more screening in the european union. In the u. S. , the federal trade commission is said to be talking to some small sellers who fell on amazons marketplace permit really. A lot this green he has been applied to the marketplace amazon has been deliberate in recent years in their marketing, saying we are a friend of the Small Business and here is how we are supporting sellers on our website. Romaine we talk to a lot Small Businesses that europe. We had Small Businesses at bloomberg. We had a couple on the program. Whatou give us some idea the sellers themselves are giving up in order to participate in this program . Matt complicated is a great word because of all the eyeballs and shoppers on amazon. Com. They loseses, authority of how they are communicating with customers. Thatnventory is managed let them use their Logistics Network get a lot of rules dictated by this very large platform operator on the part of amazon. Some small sellers feel like their voices are not heard. One complaint you hear often is if the seller does something wrong and gets suspended from selling on the platform, it can be kind of hard to get in touch with an amazonian to explain what went wrong. A lot of critiques that small sellers have had over the years as the marketplace has grown. Caroline i would like to be called an amazonian myself. How much do these outside sellers really matter for the business . How much are they bringing in . How much of the sales . Matt they are critical to amazon. 58 on the sites worldwide came from thirdparty sellers last year. By widgets,easured one thing the Settler Community does for amazon is they dont have to go out of stock. Everything under the sun, if they are ready and willing to do it for them. If they are charging fees and commissions as the sellers make deals on the side, it is a big business for amazon and what they want to continue to grow as mobley grow reasonably. Caroline great story and well put by you. Trouble between gains and losses throughout the day but holding onto 0. 1 higher. Focusing on the 10 year yield, because we are selling off slightly. The curve inverted twice again today on the 210. We are seeing it back in the negative. Is this a long battle for the fed . And the pound, check out. Up a percentage point. Once again, the battering of brexit and whether or not we will get a deal in question. This is bloomberg. From the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. Everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. Thats why Xfinity Mobile created a Wireless Network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. And the best lte everywhere else. Xfinity mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Click, call or visit a store today. Caroline this is countdown to the close. Im Caroline Hyde. Romaine high romaine bostick. Is the hardest working person in showbiz, taylor riggs. Taylor giving me the most compliments this week. On a very serious note, there are a few things im watching. One of which is jackson hole this week. Particularly tomorrow when we get to hear from jay powell. What is so crazy if you come into the terminal at g tv , you had a lot of hedging going into this. A two to one ratio for puts to calls. Traders betting where hedging or protecting on bond prices down and yields up. And then it came up that we got three relatively hawkish statements from some of the fed Regional Bank president s, and then we translate that into the equity markets. I wanted to pull up another chart that we have showing the pricing that we get on the day after the symposium starts. And then of course on friday, what happens in the s p when you chairsom many of the fed. Romaine got to love the 2010 and 2011. I wonder what happened was days. Taylor vague, focused on general theories. You are still getting anywhere from half of a percent up to 3 in the equity market. Tomorrow, we will have to see. We know all eyes are on jay powell. Caroline we brace ourselves. None other than one issue, looking forward to jay powell, the banks. Check out what is happening in terms of Industry Groups because they basically rescued the industries indices. Yields rise a little bit. Hopes that maybe this ongoing search for yields will come to an end and the banks getting a bit of a lift. Romaine definitely on the red in the s p and the dow but we will take as we can get it. Taylor we were talking verted yield curve. Sort of surprising today. Caroline you are right. Not once, but twice. We have had one out performer. It has generally been the Dow Jones Industrial average. The s p 500 cleaning onto 0. 2 higher. Romaine there we go. Caroline there you have it. A lot of the hard work there. Romaine also seeing retellings. The biggest name in the s p 500 is nordstrom. Taylor you were noting this morning, following the conversation yesterday about target getting an upgrade as well. Hugenot seen a company like that gateway percent. Romaine we are a few minutes away from the closer we will dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters. Look atim taking a slack, which has fallen as much as 2 . Take a look at the intraday. Earlier, it rose the highest since late july but is now down. It has eight buy rating. Buy rating. Mkm raised the price target to 40. More digital organizations digitize workflows that this stock is becoming a lot more popular. In the second chart from you can see the stock shot up early after the ipo but has since declined. Safe stockysts Value Proposition is even more attractive now that the company has a few more users. Abigail earlier today, we had some Economic Data come out. The u. S. Pmi data, the manufacturing surveys. You can see we saw a few misses for manufacturing. A contraction at 49. 9 versus the survey calling for 50. 5. Anything above 50 tells you the economy is expanding. Below, contracting. Manufacturing sector is contracting. Butice is slightly above missing the survey number. Overall, 50. 9. So expanding but not perhaps to the degree some would expect or hope. Interestingly enough, falling below the european pmi. This goes back to 2016. Back in 2016, some are calling it a recession in the u. S. Inside the u. S. , we had a correction for stocks close to levels we are at now, around 51, and then climbing and climbing. In blue, the european pmi. In white, the u. S. Pmi. A year ago, closer to 54. Now europe at 51. 8 and the u. S. At 50. 9. You have to wonder where the economy is hurting more, here or in europe . Caroline certainly looking at german manufacturing, it was pretty ugly. We thank you. What a great set up. With more, we are joined by luke. How has the market been digesting today . Mixed messages from the fence because as well. Seems like the market is waiting. Luke in a sense, yes. One trend i have been picking up on lately is the u. S. Data does not matter to markets. Any kind of European Data that is upbeat or a miss matters a lot to treasuries. Bad news in the u. S. Matters to treasuries. When we have seen today is better than expected but still bad European Data. Hey, if it is able to lift bund yield, it will lift u. S. Treasury yields. You see the dip on the day when we get the disappointing market menu print there. And then we bounce back up and drift up because that is what german bund deals were doing. The past six months, the correlation between the 10 year bund yield and treasury yield is 0. 99. They never moved together like this. This is a huge convergence happening at the backup of the curve. Taylor what do you make of a put call ratio to hedging on treasury futures looking for price, lower yields higher . Is that a sign that analysts are protecting to the downside . Or are they betting that more hawkish comments would start to come out as retail sales, the consumer still very strong . Luke what i wonder about is in a lot of these excerpts we have seen, what kind of fed response, what kind of big powell move triggers it . If you remember, the cut is when we saw a huge 210 flattening that sent yields down. There is the potential for more hawkish than expect to talks gets flattened against the curve yield down. Powell is sufficiently convincing in the idea that the fed stimulus will be able to help the economy and that is what forward curves are still banking on. To your point on the optionality, what has been interesting is if you look ats cue from a different way, essentially the demand for a call option on treasuries relative to puts, that has been so firm for a long time, and that is something we have started to see come in with the open interest charge so pointing in the same direction. Romaine lets bring someone else into the conversation. Alicia is a chief strategist. Welcome back. Always great to have you. Jackson hole tomorrow is all everyone is talking about. We had jim on earlier who basically said he should just capitulate to the market. We had Mohamed Elerian on earlier this morning on jon ferros show which is not as highly rated at this one, and he said powell should push back. I think tomorrow, you will have powell disappointing market because the markets are really looking for another 50 basis points by the end of the year. What we heard today is there is real disagreement within the fomc about where the u. S. Economy is, particularly the

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