Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open July 14, 2024

The u. S. And china announced they will hold trade talks in the coming weeks. To visit washington in october. Asiay markets again across with rallies in europe and the u. S. The yen and gold take a hit. And boris is beaten again. Armament rejects a Boris Johnsons demand for a snap election as a bill to stop no deal brexit gains momentum. The first, tome my knowledge, the first leader of the opposition in the democratic history of our country to refuse the invitation to an election. Matt good morning from berlin to less than a half hour away from the european open. Taking a look at treasuries. They cant make up their mind and you see this when you look at other safe haven assets. For example, the yen of lost a lot of ground and is now coming back. We are quite sure whats going on. Indexes in hong kong are dropping. Verywhere else, we are seeing gains. We are seeing gains. They are all solidly in the green. Up. 8 . Dax futures ftse futures up more than. 5 right now. And anna, there is still a lot of drama, ups and downs, twists and turns for you to go through. Absolutely. The political theme is keeping us busy. It seems that the Prime Minister is a little bit trapped, little bit blocked by his lack of control of parliament and a lack of willingness to trust him. What we saw yesterday was once again the government losing about. The Rebel Alliance brought a bill that would block no deal brexit. It looks as if it could be delayed in the house of lords. With their bedding and changes of clothes and the shaving kits im told and their bags, they did not need those necessarily. Quitehings moving quickly, the governments clearing the path for passage of the bill. Front are moving on that and the direction that is not in the direction the government wants it to go. So that asked for a general election and theyre not going to get that. They need to thirds of mps to back them in that call. So that is the story in westminster, we will continue to track that for you. You got banking news. Matt we have only half a year left with the commerzbank cfo stefan ingles. He says he will not renew his contract to run at the finances of the bank. So commerzbank cfo steffen ingles says hen will not renew his contract. Frome also getting news the finance office at announced the bank. , so thethere is leaving cfo is leaving while the cfo at commerzbank will not renew his contract. Its a tough job at european banks right now. But its a risk on mood today in stock markets this morning as china and the u. S. Say they will resume talks in october. Went tos from beijing travel to washington to meet of their american counterparts and comes after weeks of uncertainty and escalation with the latest round resulting in raised tariffs on september 1. Lets get into the markets with mark cudmore. Kong,he drops in hong weak german factory orders cant disturb our risk on mood. We have futures up across the board. Is that all down to trade . It is a very exuberant day. A facet of this is that low liquidity at the moment, the slight confusion, the uncertainty and lack of conviction. We do get these powerful bear rallies. Its not a fundamental shift. Yes, its great, and they have months to have talks. Economic damage from the terrace they are just starting to hit and we are seeing that announced in the data. Of course, the tariffs that were implanted it were hit around december time. So even if you have another round of talks, even then, it will be too late. Sustainablereally a bounce of joy, but there is low liquidity. Soon, but whoetty knows . Anna so not a believer in that rally, but what about the pound . Is it like a coiled spring ready to bounce on signs that brexit is being kicked even further down the road . Thats an interesting one. The announced he is similar, but different time spans. The fundamentals have not really shifted and we are back to where we were sometime about six months ago when we are headed through the world. We might be headed towards a no deal brexit or might be headed to can kicking and an extension. That seems to largely be the scenario we are in now with uncertainty around which route whate going down there happens in fundamentals is that the economy has gotten even worse. There headed towards a recession and deals are still very negative. But the fundamentals for sterling remained negative. However, weve got the can kicking for longer and we remove the high probability of a tail risk, meaning there is probabilities of trading. And is the fact that if we have more risk aversion elsewhere, the pound could likely squeeze even more. He could see the pound moves sustained for a little bit longer, even of the fundamentals have not changed. Looks like Kathleen Hays is up at 1 a. M. , posting on the mliv blog. Can that be the same for european stocks . Would the really weak german factory orders lead to the kind of ecb easing markets want to see . I think that easing is largely priced in the year of their psi think that this bad news story in europe, its not going to help European Assets too much, but it does confirm that global picture. Especially when it is germany. 10 plus of global trade shows the world is going to a bad place because germany is headed towards recession and thats not a good sign. Anna mark, thanks so much. Our mliv editor with a fascinating conversation on the markets. Up next, chances of a no deal brexit are diminishing. Thats good news for easyjet. We speak exclusively to the ceo. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. We are 18 minutes away from the start of cash trading across europe. Lets take a look at futures. We have decent gains, still half a percent up on the ftse. Budget air carriers have a lot to lose from a no deal brexit, especially those with bases on the continent. Johnsont over to guy who is live at the World Aviation conference with the ceo of easyjet. Good morning. I am here with Johan Lindgren lundgren. I spent my morning in westminster with the brexit story. Nobody can quite figure out what is going on. You are the ceo of a major european carrier with the bases all over the place. What does this uncertainty mean to you . Johan first of all, lets just say that we have been preparing for years for any scenario. It was two years ago we said we would start the european basis and can fly in any circumstance. Right now, we are operating as though a no deal happened. So we are prepared that. For that. Of course, we also said that we want certainty. Certainty is important for the local economy and for our customers. Clearly, that is something were still looking after. I think theret are still elements of uncertainty. Guy so how does that actually manifest itself . You talk about uncertainty at the moment, we dont have that. And its possible we want for a very long time. The only certainty at the moment is that we will see political turbulence. From an easyjet point of view, how are you dealing with that . Number ofre are a things. If you are looking at the demand environment, you can see in some markets the combination of a softening of the local economies. We can see there has been a tougher year from the demand point of view when it comes to the yield environment. That people are traveling, we have a Record Number of customers flying as an example, but the external environment is very different. So that leads to a hesitation which is also led to a looking pattern in some of the markets are the have worked on late yield initiatives and a number of other initiatives to mitigate that. Of course, everybody would like to have uncertain to have certainty. Guy is the pound a factor in all of this . It has certainly been under considerable pressure. How does that affect the demand for the u. K. When comes to going elsewhere . The pound and the Exchange Rate has a number of effects, one is on the costs we have. ,hat is not an imminent issue we are well hedged this year and next year when it comes to that. Havef course, you would seen that it has been slightly more expensive to be out in some of the euro destinations. Commented by it is a very attractive market when it comes to the Prices Airlines are offering. If the european economy is slowing down, is that your feeling right now . Johan there is evidence of that looking at germany and italy and the latest figures in the u. K. The output, i think that plays a role. But its difficult to say whats fear frommes out of a any brexit scenario thats out there. Is it just a result of trade wars going on, its a whole bag of things that affect the overall impact. Guy you talked about prices heard one of prices. One was the impact of carbon footprints and the impact of people flying less. When it comes to lowcost carriers, there is a story that thatcreasingly being heard is the lowcost sector is encouraging people to fly, not because it is necessary, but because it is cheap. There are offering flights that are so cheap that people say they will just fly. How do you deal with that longterm . Do we have to have a regulatory changes to deal with that . I completely disagree with that view. Be the problem of lowcost airlines, as an example. That would mean it was much better before when flying was much was only for privileged people, for people who could afford it not for everyone. Whenever fewer options out there , i completely disagree with that whole sentiment. But what youve got to think about is when it comes to the carbon footprint, the lowcost ,arriers with efficient models high frequencies, modern fleets, have the lowest footprints of the legacyme carriers. So i think people will choose very carefully about what they are going to fly with when they decided to fly. We understand if people want to use different means of transportation. And theres no doubt than in the mid to longerterm, they came to reinvent themselves aim to reinvent themselves. Thingsse are examples of that will continue to have growing importance. Guy thanks for spending some time with us. Ceo of easyjet. Anna, matt . Matt guy johnson, speaking with easyjet ceo out of islington. Now, we are going to talk to the u. K. Shadow chancellor and we come back about brexit. And whatt as well happens at westminster. Hes going to give us the lowdown from his point of view. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. 10 minutes to go until the start of cash equities trading. We are live in westminster and im here to speak to a key figure in the labour party. I am pleased to be joined by the u. K. Shadow chancellor john mcdonnell. Of course, your party is in an interesting position because the Prime Minister needs to thirds of mps to back his request for a general election. Jeremy corbyn has said the bill you passed yesterday has to be law before he will consent. What does that mean and how does that look to you . Of ourhe whole thrust agenda is to prevent a no deal of brexit. So the legislation going through will help do that. Want is that has been received we will consider the date for an election, so discussion now is when that date will be. We work with the opposition parties and consult with our own. , with borising johnson, its very difficult to trust any deal we arrive at because he is not exactly consistent on maintaining agreements. So should we wait until the next Economic Council when a deal can be achieved, or should we go until october 31 . There is a real issue here for Boris Johnson. Second is the got the brexit party breathing down their neck. Said he will only do a deal if he commits to a no deal brexit. So he has got a real legal dilemma. Does he split his party . What we are saying is that whatever happens in the national interest, we got do everything we can. Anna but if you wait until after the 31st of october, things could change. Are you in danger of missing the boat . John i dont think so. The public mood is that theyve had enough of the public move is that they dont support a no deal brexit is everyone realizes the consequences. The best way to characterize this is that someone has got to be the adult in the room. Boris johnson throws these tantrums, uses all sorts of trumpian language. ,ut you can have your tantrums but we have got to do is make sure we have the interest of the country. Anna is there trouble within the Rebel Alliance . They are suggesting you are maybe afraid of an election. John what we have been saying is we need to do this together. We want a general election just as much as they do. I want to get rid of this Boris Johnson government as much as fast as we can, but the date is key. A date that secures our own overall policy objectives and then have a general election . Anna so your policy seems clear. The policy of brexit seems pretty mixed, the pulse suggest the public is confused. What will your brexit policy the be . John a second referendum. But a public vote overall is the best way of resolving this matter. There are those who would campaign for remain and there will be others who want to see others but nobody wants a no deal brexit. Anna you could still be out there campaigning for two different things. John the party will make its mind of and we will have our normal process. But there are always some within different parties who have different views. My view at the moment is to remain, but thats for the future. The key now is blocking oris johnson. Boris johnson. Anna would you go into Collision Coalition with liberal democrats . The last election, we were 20 points back in the polls. Anna i remember, we had the same conversation at this very place. You did not win. John we drew level. Normally, with a new Prime Minister, there is a heck of a bounce in the polls, will he got less of a bounceback theresa may. Polls, or with a bit of an advantage. I think we could be the majority party. Mcdonnell, shadow chancellor, thank you for joining me. Plenty to come on the markets as we see the confirmation of trade talks. Futures are strongly up on that. This is bloomberg. Devices are like doorways that could allow hackers into your home. And like all doors, theyre safer when locked. Thats why you need xfinity xfi. With the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. Which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. And people inside from accidentally visiting sites that arent secure. And if someone trys well let you know. Xfi advanced security. If its connected, its protected. Call, click, or visit a store today. We are a minute away start cash equity trading. Is a risk. About percentage point. We dont have a date yet but we have about a month. A firmer dollar again the japanese yen yen. U. S. Wouldked have talked u. S. And chinese officials. The pound trading around 1. 22 for cable. Anna edwards across all of this was meant in westminster. The dax up 0. 7 even though we had perfect out of had weaker factory out of germany. Up relativelyng flat. Theirequities poised for two days biggest again. Biggest gain since june. 0. 6 . S ibex opening up is the green it is a sea of green,. The british pound down 0. 2 . Lets take a look sectors are doing. Very green this morning. Risk on entry this morning. Some things i will be ee ho wminers and metals do. Oriole oil hanging onto the of those gains. Looks like the u. K. Is move to stop no deal brexit. Guy thanks very much for that. Lets take a look at is going on my move screen. Showing you the breakdown of the oxen hundred of the stoxx 600. 520 are gaining. As far as the gainers, we have a auple trysting story couple interesting stories. Quuinor. For e someroyal dutch shell, so gainers. X stocks docs may today exdividend today. A lot of 17 companies stocks on. Today is the earth day about the stoxx without the right to last dividend. Continue to focus on the brexit drama, which look like it will be highenergy through tomorrows session. Looks as it have got a lot of drama from what does from westminster. Boris johnson will be later on today will be speaking later on today. Boris johnson lost his majority this week. Or so from21 21 mps his party. Mcdonnell,ke to john the shadow chancellor. They can start to talk about the timing of a general election. There are others who want to wait until after the end of october. They want to lock down that date so it cannot or by the private cannot be changed by the mr. Ate or others crime right minute Prime Minister or otheres. On risk onboost mood. Joining us now is etsy dwek, atd of Global Market ready Market Strategy at natixis. Etsy absolute. We have into need to market swift expect a swift resolution. We dont expect trump to come to a decision right away. Being tough on china has worked quite well. We think you will continue to keep that status we think you will continue to keep that stance. President trump will have to navigate between being tough on china and trying to hurt a sharp downturn or recession in the u. S. Internet steer into next year. I think we will see the type of news we have seen recently, escalation, some type of status quo or truce, then talks, then maybe another escalation before we see any kind of agreement. Coaster isl roller what she is saying. Go on, anna. Anna roller coaster indeed. You dont think that the political calendar in the u. S. Is going to push President Trump into doing some sort of a deal here . Etsy probably not before next year until you really start to see sustained weakness in the u. S. Economy. We had a disappointing manufacturing number for august. Whether its just below 50, so pointing towards contraction, whether that gets confirmed with september number. I think they are waiting for october for the next round of talks. The more we see that type of data, the more pressure there will be to have some better news. I think we are more likely to see a truce or maybe a delay of further tariffs as talks keep going and not any kind of grand a deal, definitely grand deal, definitely not before the end of the year. Equities, you look at ying the dips was a strategy that played so well for this entire year basically. Is that still the case, do you think . Cellu have maybe a the spikes strategy . Etsy still relatively constructive on risk assets and equity markets. We dont see a global recession in the shortterm or into 2020. Given the uncertainty, especially around trade, that it is a lot tougher to have the conviction level much further out into 2020. For now, we dont see a recession. You are going to have a lot of central bank support. I think equity markets are going to grind higher. It might not be stellar. I think you will see the upside. What we have also

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