Positive things in the jobs report as well. S p up 0. 2 now, but of stocks making big moves on good news, including lululemon, up 8. 5 on analyst comments. Conagra, even though it got a downgrade and started the day lower, is up 0. 6 now. Guy lets get some insight on todays payroll number. It wasnt a headline level miss, but it kind of felt like pretty much what the market was looking for. With us is ira jersey. Ira, did todays number change anything . Ira i dont think it changed much. Like you mentioned, it was really a mixed bag. The number of hours worked, as well as hourly average earnings, was ok. When you look at what i call the paycheck of the economy, the some product of all of those the sum product of all of those things, it is higher than it was last month. Not much, but maybe we are stabilizing here considering average wages were falling for the bulk of the year so far. Vonnie larry kudlow mentioned that in terms of wages, we are now 4 plus over the last three months. Im wondering if that gives the fed a little more leeway to potentially cut more than 25 basis points at the next meeting if it decides to. Ira i dont think so because the fed is on track to cut 25. There is some possibility of a 50. It wouldnt be a complete surprise if we had motive the members if we had one of the numbers of the fomc saying we should go faster now so we dont have to do more later, but i think a preponderance of the members of the committee only want to do 25. They want to be more measured because if this does start to rebound, they dont want to be hiking so soon if they can avoid that. Guy given the payroll number today, given the moving average, which looks pretty solid as well, any chance we get a surprise from powell when he speaks in zurich a little later on . Ira i dont think a big surprise. I am looking for more what is the reaction function after this month. September is baked in the cards. I dont think the fed wants to disappoint the market. The question is how fast do they go, and do they go to more times this year after september . The market was pricing about a 5050 shot of two more cuts in october and december. He could take that away if he was a little more cautious about how quickly theyre going to go. Vonnie ira, the more the president tweets, the more he tweets about Jerome Powell. Does it get any more dangerous for the Federal Reserve and its decisionmaking . Are the markets taking anymore notice with each marginal cleat . Each marginal tweet . Ira i think the market is kind of numb to it. They know the president doesnt like chair powell. Part of it is chair powell is a number of a committee, and it surprised me when powell was first nominated by President Trump because he wasnt a dove. Hes a mainstream kind of thinker when it comes to monetary policy. I was expecting someone who is a known dove to be appointed. It shouldnt be surprising that powell is being a middleoftheroad person and not dovish like donald trump seems to want. Vonnie i just want to fact check what larry kudlow said about 4 on wages. I did look it up, and the last three months has been three point 2 yearoveryear, 3. 3 , 3. 2 . What did he mean by 4 plus . Alix hes talking about ira hes talking about the momentum, so basically if you took the last three months in isolation and annualized that. That was my point earlier in our discussion, was that the momentum on the wage site has been ok, even though job great. N hasnt been great. The some of that the sum of that is ok for the economy, and shows that things might be stabilizing somewhat. The consumer has really been the big heartbeat of the economy so far, with the Manufacturing Sector continuing to decline and being more of a problem for the economy than a help. Vonnie thank you. Ira is bloomberg televisions chief u. S. Interestrate strategist. Guy lets get more on the impact the Global Markets. We are joined now by caroline u. K. Deputy cio. Does the payroll number change anything for you . Caroline not a great deal. It was slightly weaker than what the market was expecting, but i think it is also a sign of the fact that unemployment is as low a sign of the fact that when employment is as low as it is, job accretion will slow. I know it is a little bit of a help but it certainly will the people thinking there is going to be a rate cut in september. Guy yields have moved a lot over the last month. Equity markets still look pretty solid, though. To alltime close highs. Which side of that makes you nervous . Caroline i think the reason why we got a lot of cuts going through is not because of fundamentals in the u. S. , but because of the sort of global risk emanating from trade. As we go through the outlook for the earnings in the equity we see what impact the global slowdown is having on the earnings. That will then decide which way the equity markets are going. We are slightly underweight equities against fixed income. Vonnie how is the ubs u. K. Investment office thinking about what is happening with parliament and the Prime Minister right now . Are you making any judgment calls on what might happen in the next few weeks, and who might be Prime Minister by the end of the year . Caroline we are doing a lot of scenarios, lets say that. Have five different brexit scenarios and six different general election scenarios, and we try to work out which assets will do well under which scenario. It is very hard to put it. The extension of the article 50 bill is likely to be approved on monday. It is likely that the Prime Minister will then ask for a second time to see if he can get a general election. He probably wont get the support, looking at what is coming from the opposition parties today. Working tose, we are think that we will get an extension, and then a general election, but of course, like ways, all options are possible. Vonnie so what do you do in britain . Caroline on sterling, we think britain is pricing in a hard exit. You can take a longer term view on sterling, but that is going to appreciate against the dollar. In terms of the equity side, the best way to think is diversified dividend approach. You are also having a combination of cyclical and defensive sectors because we dont know which way the bond yield is going, and that is partly to do with the global situation, but of course partly linked to brexit. Guy can you walk me through the numbers on how many scenarios we got . It was five and six. This is a big tree we are talking about here. [laughter] guy if i was sitting on the other side of the table, i would be saying, why do i want to invest in this . This looks like an incredibly difficult and uncertain environment. There are plenty of other places to invest in the world. Caroline and i think a lot of International Investors have taken that view since the referendum. We seen that in the outflows in the u. K. Guy getting worse now . Caroline i dont think it is getting worse. Theyve all kinda finished now, so i dont think it is getting worse. The reason why you might still want the u. K. Is because there that look very bad, but a lot of it benefits the u. K. Market if it makes sterling weaker. Theres always an offsetting. The currency goes one may come of the market goes the other. The domestic economy goes one way, and market goes with it. Good returns,get particularly on dividend. Even if the market doesnt go anywhere, you still get 5 yield. Guy the data coming out of europe right now is horrible. We saw more of it today, the ip data coming out of germany. People thought it was already going to be bad. It was even worse than anticipated. What options do you get about. Nvesting in europe investing in europe . Caroline we think that the trade and global slowdown feeds into the euro zone perhaps more than people had anticipated. How you anticipate that is you look for more defensive strategies. If you get some Downside Protection like a covered call strategy or possibly a dividend strategy, something that gives you a little cushion on the way down, we do think the euro zone will underperform the u. S. Vonnie what about sterling . Obviously, hsbcs david blum was quite colorful yesterday, but he said it would look bad for sterling and several difference in areas. Do you have one call on sterling . Caroline we are long sterling against the dollar. Partly, we believe the dollar will be weakening as the fed continues to cut rates, but now, we think that at 1. 23 , our view is that in the case of a hard exit, you would get to 1. 15 on cable, so we do have some downside, but the bank of england is also coming up against its inflation target. Unemployment rates are low. Wage growth is starting to pick up. Once we are through some of the brexit uncertainty, i think it does pave the way for the bank of england to possibly start thinking about raising rates depending on what is going on in the global picture. Guy we are going to talk about the global picture next. Tanks for joining us this afternoon and giving us a view on what is happening here. We need to talk about what is happening with the china data, tripling the reserve cut today. Caroline simmons is going to stay with us. Vonnie lets check u. S. Markets. Equity markets have been higher since the jobs data, and larry kudlow saying we are back to square one on china, but there are talks scheduled. 0. 2 , the nasdaq up more than 0. 1 , and we are going into the weekend as well. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check those markets now and get a first word news update. Here with the details, kailey leinz. Kailey the Justice Department has opened an antitrust investigation into four automakers over emissions standards. Prosecutors want to determine if ford, honda, bmw, and volkswagen violated antitrust law in california. The government also want to strip californias authority to set tougher standards. Hurricane dorian is battering the carolinas is battering north carolinas outer banks before heading northeast. District of waves and storm surges have ordered a round of evacuations. Toll froms death dorian is now at 30. The labour party and Scottish National parties are set to vote on september 29. He was the longtime hero of zimbabwe who eventually turned into a villain. Rep. Buck abe has died, one of the truck Robert Mugabe has fighters forthe independent rule. Vonnie thank you. Lets check Global Markets now. He is Abigail Doolittle heres Abigail Doolittle. Abigail we have a bit of a risk off tone on this friday. Modest risk on tone in the u. S. Of uncertainty in london. The ftse 100 up fractionally. The shanghai composite in the Asian Session besting all of the indexes on the day, up about 0. 5 . What a week its been. Lets take a look at a fourday chart of the s p 500, a holiday shortened week. We had trade tensions weighing on tuesday, along with disappointing many factoring numbers, so that day down. Since then, weve been up and , forgetting about trade tensions and that weak manufacturing number. Today we are sort of flattening out a little bit, but overall on the week, we do have actually, this is not the s p 500. This is the german 30 year yield. Heres the s p 500. We had the down day tuesday, wednesday flat, and then we see the gains yesterday and friday. So overall, the bulls are taking it, even though we start with the bears. If we could take a look at that 30 year bond chart, theres a bigger story on the week in that bonds have been selling off. Dou see the 30 year bun briefly into negative territory. Into a riskhed us off tone. We are going to see that we have the s p 500 futures and purple, and yellow gold. After the fed meeting, we have the s p 500 and that august range, but on yesterdays big rally, we are now slightly positive for the order, but you can see that gold, treasuries, and the haven yen outperforming, so still a bit of a risk off tone in the third quarter. It will be very interesting to see what the rest of september brings. Guy thank you very much indeed. Caroline simmons, ubs Wealth Management deputy head of the u. K. Investment office, still with us. The market feels really choppy. Almost feels like we are back to risk on, risk off. Im wondering how that affects your view. Trade is clearly front and center. Do you get any hint that the trade narrative is improving . It is kind of oscillating at the moment. Is that uninvestable market . Caroline i think the reason the market is oscillating is because people are split on whether this is a temporary global slowdown or whether this is marking the end of the cycle and a more significant slowdown to come. View is that generally, it is better to stay invested rather than to try and trade the markets if youve got a time horizon of at least five years. But also not to just look at one or two data points. We are seeing some inconsistencies. The pmis are generally weaker than the hard data. You need to see, commission of data to make you want to take a it is best to be diversified. Have some equities, some fixed income, some hedge funds. Guy lets talk a bit about Central Banks. They have been the central focus of the markets for quite some time. Anything the fed does, the ecb ,oes, the doj does massively important. You think we are coming to the end of that . We are going to get when he five basis points, but nevertheless, the bang for buck when it comes to portfolio affect and economic effects are becoming less and less. Caroline i think youre right. As time has gone on, the Central Banks have had less of an impact on the markets, but they are still very important, particularly from a signaling perspective. I think what we will get people start to focus on more is the fundamentals and the earnings picture, so as it continues to slow at an economic level, people will really be looking at what that does for the companies, and that will help drive equity views. Vonnie you said people should be diversified, hedge funds their holdings. What kind of strategies are you looking at . Caroline we take an approach of a variety of different hedge funds, so we have a bit of everything in there. At the moment, the equity hedge benefiting from the dispersion in stock sectors and regions, but it is not advisable to only just have that. We also like the relative value trades quite a lot, and generally we try and build a portfolio of the Hedge Fund Strategies as well within your portfolio, so it is really a , and sxswsonal hide portfolio. Vonnie fiscal stimulus in germany doesnt happen. What is the in germany, does it happen . What is the ubs view . Caroline at the limit of centralbank impact, does fiscal takeover . Clearly, all eyes are going to be on germany because they are the first really talking about it, so i think we will have to wait and see what happens. It is certainly a shift of where we are going into the next stages. Nie thank you there is thank you. That is Caroline Simmons of ubs Wealth Management. Want to take you to hong kong now. Tensions are rising once again in the city. It is friday night, and protesters have taken to the streets in continuing civil unrest. Some demands still not met, even removecarrie lam did that extradition bill. We will continue to monitor the situation this friday night in hong kong. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. It is time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. New york is leading a multistate antitrust investigation into facebook. The attorney general says the goal is to find out if the social network has stifled competition and put it to at risk. According to the wall street journal, google is facing a similar investigation. A 150 billion Global Corporate bond binge is breaking records. This year has been unprecedented. The amount sold in dollars, euro, and yen the first week of this month is the largest ever. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Checking u. S. Markets now this jobs friday, we are getting a bounce. It is pretty muted, though, with nasdaq up 0. 3 in the 0. 1 . Guy really tight ranges here in europe. Its been an incredibly narrow channel. Oil stocks are down. We are also keeping an eye on what is happening with sterling. The dax is trading a little bit higher. We are trying to figure out on the m a front what is happening there. Some of the auto stocks having a reasonably good day as well. Cac 40 up by about 0. 1 . Volume looks ok, but as i say come a very tight ranges as we going to the weekend. The european close is next. This is bloomberg. We call it the mother standard of care. Its something we take personally, and believe in passionately. Its the idea that if our mothers were diagnosed with cancer, how would we want them to be treated . Thats exactly how we care for you. With answers and actions. To hear your concerns, quiet your fears, lift your spirits. With teams of cancer experts and specialists, delivering advanced Treatment Options and compassionate support every step of the way. All here in one place, with one purpose. To fight your cancer, together. Thats the mother standard of care. This is how we inspire hope. This is how we heal. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. Appointments available now. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading in europe this friday. To be honest, a range bound session today. Not a lot of action either way. Lowme is ok, oil is trading , which is why london is underperforming. The numbers, ftse 100 up. 1 . Boundan incredibly narrow in the ftse 100 today. Oil is a factor. Oil stocks have had a good , no surprise with the oil price coming off. Of dax, we have seen some the Industrial Companies having a good day. Was aa out of germany surprise to the downside. Worse than anticipated. On the otherks are end of the spectrum. The cac 40 trading down. 1 . Pay attention to that. We might get news on the auto front. In terms of the sector story, it is mixed. Cyclical sectors are doing all right. The chemicals trading higher, industrial goods trading higher, basic Resources Trading higher. Im not sure you can pull too much away from this. They are trading in rea