Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Close 2

Crude turning positive in the last few minutes at 58. 18. I wanted to point out one of the conundrums in the stock market today, the steel sector was downgraded at j. P. Morgan in the premarket. All of the Steel Companies were lower. This follows still companies in europe as well still companies in europe as well down lower. Right now u. S. Steel is back up about half a percent. Lots of optimism in this u. S. Market. Not so much over here. Not when it comes to the manufacturing sector. The economy grinding to a halt in the third quarter. Factories slump and it started to bleed through into the Services Sector as well. Specifically, germany is ignores downturn and most seven years. We are joined now by stephen macklowsmith, Market Strategist for the International Equity group. Good afternoon. The data are bad, stephen. Is that reflected fully and European Equity markets . At the moment, yes. You think about where the markets are, basically unchanged in 12 months. Theres been a substantial rally we are pretty even. If you look at the background, one of the drivers has been earnings have been continually downgraded this year, expectations. And that is not a story just about europe. That is true in the states as well and end asiapacific and emerging markets. And in asiapacific and emerging markets. Containing real gdp relatively low levels and no sign of it moving higher. Nominal gdp operating leverage, goes into reverse. There was an expectation earlier this year it would rise and according to bloomberg, that is about 1 . We are kind of flat. It is not clear what is going happen next year and whether there will be a recovery. Guy if i dont have to investigate if i dont have to invest in europe, is there any incentive to put money to work here right now . Maybe there are a couple of companies here and there you can find if youre a bottom up kind of stock picker, but most people these days are increasingly investing in the etf point of view, why would they put money here . The story is about positive opportunities. If you want to put your cash, negative return. Sovereign, that is not great. From an equity point of view, all the earnings have been calm, they have been rising. Not yet sing margins back to cycle highs, so there is some upside for margins if you get some acceleration of global growth. Yes, the story is down at the moment but trade rhetoric altered became less hawkish if there was more sense of a constructive exit from the european union, you might see a change in capex. A change in confidence. That should boost growth. The lead indicator for that is on the credit side, there are encouraging signs. Normally a six month to nine month lead. If we think about book to bill, it has not improved in europe. Clearly, the data state is weak. But it is bottoming out in china and in somewhere like sweden, which is kind of important because sweden is an important source for the european economy. It is not worth giving up just yet. Vonnie stephen, how much more concern does do our customers become on the big geopolitical questions of the day . Are people getting ignored to things like brexit risk and trade risk or other becoming more urgent about what to do about these risks . View, oner point of of the things from the last two years, a continual slew about outflows from retail funds. They have looked at the landscape. They have been withdrawing money from retail funds. My senses a lot of that would be theo with uncertainty about fed situation as youve have rightly diagnosed. But that could turnaround very quickly if a different view is taken in some of the seats of power. , tell us a Stephen Little bit about the idea that the fed is working on its own and we have mario draghi begging for fiscal stimulus from european governments. Our Central Banks having to take very different approaches to how they try to boost Economic Growth in the major developed countries . We have seen it going on in japan for quite some time now, between the u. S. And europe . That is an important question. The room for maneuver Central Banks around the world varies for yearly, and the states, theres room for rates to be cut should the fed not necessary. They could also do something about sidestep Balance Sheet. Just recently, you started to see the feds Balance Sheet increasing again and that maybe in response to what is happening recently in the repo market. We dont know. But the from the ecb point of view, theres been a change the attitude toward negative deposit rates. There is a sense that tearing for banks has will be introduced. Mario draghi made it clear asset purchases were back on the menu. I think one of the most important things that is happen this year is the appointment of Christine Lagarde at the ecb. As important as her background, which is as a politician, head of the imf, very, very a droop adroit negotiator. It is interesting who did not get the job. I think theres a slight change in emphasis. I think within the eurozone, there are plenty of governments who are keen to see if theres a little bit of more physical wiggle room then they have allowed themselves 04. That could come either as a National Government level or supranational level and forms of europe. I think the hope is there will be more push on the fiscal side next year. Guy if that happens, what is the upside . So the germans decide to spend money. 10 move . Zed move . Si on the trade side, then that could be really quite a story. Guy you talk to people in the states and their terrified missing out on a trade deal. What i get a bigger about in the s p or in the dax on the trade deal . Good question. It is a little difficult to call it exactly, but i think the dax is probably more beaten up than the s p. Potentially, there is more upside in euros on equities just on that rally. So, people are fairly invested in the u. S. They have withdrawn a lot. Vonnie are they holding it in cash . If so, where are they holding it in cash . U. S. Treasuries are not exactly yielding all that much more than anybody else in the world right now. From European Investor point of view, one of the things that attracts is first of all you get positive carry but secondly, you have had a stronger dollar. In the median turn, we think the dollar is moderately valued. Just in the last year, if we think about where the returns have come, returns and u. S. Treasuries have been really attractive because youve had a kicker from the dollar. To stickhen is going around, stephen macklowsmith joining us from j. P. Morgan iset management were he asset manager. He will stick around. Lets get a check on global markets. Heres abigail doolittle. Abigail stocks in the u. S. , take a look. Just slightly lower after the european pmis came in disappointing when european shares but in the u. S. , pmi market numbers came in basically inline. Not a lot of reaction. As for the s p 500, and interesting technical look we have in the bloomberg terminal. We can take a look at that and see where the s p 500 is relative to its alltime highs. This chart goes back a year. You can see the s p 500 is really stalling out your two different sets of alltime highs well, only one can be an alltime high. At the point i want to make, the momentum indicator starting to ram down. All of this could suggest perhaps the s p 500 may cool off in the days or weeks ahead. Coolingoff today, take a look at some of the bank stocks. Amazon is lower. This is Morgan Stanley has lowered its price target setting margin pressures. We have facebook and netflix lower. Facebook and part of the antitrust probe. Finally, take a look at the 10 year yield. We have yields coming in once again. The 10 year yield down 23 basis points. That is the longest down street for the 10 year yield since early august. This tells us the haven bonds are rallying. You put that together with the fact the s p 500 is stalling out near record highs, and it may suggest some volatility could be had. Vonnie thank you for that. Do you remember the function to tv allows you to browse all of our recent charts . Catch up lanky analysis, save your favorites for future reference. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Lets check in with the bloomberg first word news. Arends has Legal Proceedings against a british flag oil tanker help since july have concluded. Held since july have concluded for some the ships crew has not turn on a satellite tracking quitman in nearly two months but there has not been any sign that it has left its position off the iranian coast. Israels arab minority is throwing around its newfound weight. The joint list of arab significant strengthened by israels inconclusive election last week, recommended on sunday that former military chief benny gantz a form the next government. The move could nudge israels instead of Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu, Whose Campaign preyed on antiherbst sentiment. Democrats are ramping up pressure on President Trump after his phone call with ukraines president. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled her readiness to take stronger action against the president. The speaker called the president s move a great new chapter of lawlessness. House Intelligence Committee chairman adam schiff called the president s action profound violation. In the race for the white house come Elizabeth Warren has overtaken joe biden as the frontrunner. This is the latest i will pull. In the iowa caucuses, the massachusetts senator has the support of 22 of likely participants. Joe biden is second with 20 . Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more 120 countries. Vonnie still with us, stephen macklowsmith. How much clarity will we get in the coming earnings season on things like how multinationals are being impacted by trade uncertainty and other geopolitical concerns . It will be totally key. I was telling earlier, the expectations have fallen pretty steadily all year and it will be very important to see whether there is further weakness. In a way, i think the guidance is going to be of more interest to us as investors and the actual numbers. My sense is European Companies debt at make adept at making sure they meet guidance. You tendency downgrades coming into the quarter and an out turn roughly in line. But it is the guidance looking forward i think will be really important. As i say, the corporate confidence has really been thected by the notion attacks are been on the Global Supply chain. It will be interesting to see exactly where theyre going to seek to make the decision to impeach given that uncertainty. Of ambiguityunts around everything. In all seriousness, when i talk to a ceo of a company, the first thing out must get back is, look, were trying to figure it out. How much visibility do companies actually have . We are all going to Pay Attention to the guidance, but how much visibility do they have . Very little. As part of the guidance, they say we have very little visibility therefore are capex in the coming year will be toned down. We will ratchet back some of that from the Capital Investment class previously announced. That in itself will be sending a signal about growth. One of the things that has not really happened in the expansion since the great financial crisis is growth in productivity. Youve seen restructure, restructuring of government finances, some growth in real incomes, but you have not releasing any Capital Investments and you have not really seen it looks as if youre going to start to get that your two years ago, but then trade tensions came along and blew it out of the water. Guy no Capital Investments and profit productivity issues. How investable is the ftse 100 as we approach october 31 . A large proportion of the ftse 100 earnings are not related to the u. K. Guy but if we get a deal, the pound goes through the roof. The ftse 100 goes to the floor. The elements the ftse 100 on the translation basis not be affected but there are other elements on the ftse 100 where people have been underinvested in Domestic Companies we will have to be nimble and try and make sure we are properly position in our portfolios. Will we think about the negotiations of the european union, there are two prisms. One is exposure to growth and one is exposure to u. K. Sterling earnings. We are currently much neutral on both because we actually trying not to take a view because we dont know how those negotiations will pan out. Vonnie are you taking on your return assumptions for clients . I would imagine it can be easy to promise a return ive any kind these days, but what are you telling them you can achieve for them . I am really glad you asked to that question. We are about to reduce our longterm Capital Market assumptions for 2020, which take attended for senior view. Over the last few years, our expected returns have been falling. This year i think youre really going to see returns in the same kind of area. There would it is pretty tough to call significant real returns in european fixed income given where yields have got. Given the growth is also affected by demographic issues around the world, and that is a key driver of Revenue Growth for equities, we are still thinking mid Single Digits there. Were not painting a particularly rosy picture for clients. But it does point to the imports of them having active management to add value to it could be a pretty pedestrian market return. Vonnie how much risk are you taking in emerging markets or beyond that, Frontier Markets . From our International Equity group point of view, we have some investments in emerging markets, not directly but through companies we invest in who have investedthere. Our emergingmarket team are sophisticated in their approach. I am lucky enough to sit here on the strategy meetings that they have. Waryare feeling pretty about the future over the next 12 months. They recognize there have been pressures on emerging market growth. I think what they have been hoping for, again, is a ratcheting down in trade tensions. But theyre not holding their breath for that. Guy china is up 30 . That is excluding december, which obviously if you take it out over a longer term time period, a slightly different result. Nevertheless, why should i expect more than 30 out of china this year . That is an eye watering number if i get to the end of the year and can post that in my portfolio. It is interesting. It kind of depends whether china government feels further need to apply stimulus to the economy down the road. Haveeling is they do still a fair amount of firepower they could deploy if they chose to. Guy but they are deploying it because the data are slowing down pretty rapidly. And the question really is, how much of that is reflected in that 30 . Is the balance of risk to the upside . You are saying there more stimulus. Or is it there to mitigate that data and is the stock market really reflecting that . Im wondering where the balance of risk is . Do i bank that number . It depends on your time rise. Im not here to make a call about the shortterm direction of the chinese stock market. There has been a recovery, not in china, but pretty much every developed stock market around the world this year. Europe is up about 15 . That is against the decline of declining earnings expectations and pmis in short supply. Guy on that note, we will leave it. Stephen macklowsmith, jp morgan. This is bloomberg. London, i guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Time for your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Anothers bracing for landmark privacy decision from the eu. The law forces the tech company to delete links to personal information on request. The court is questioning if the rights should apply globally. The court could reach a decision as early as tomorrow. Out, 21,000y lost jobs at risk and left travelers around the world stranded. Earn 215 million from the bankruptcy of thomas cook. They invested in derivatives that pay out when a company folds. Thomas cook will be the latest of several big payouts for hedge funds and traders. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Checking u. S. Markets now, we are fractional in our declines for the s p 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial average, which actually has turned positive. It is up 14 points. The nasdaq is still down. General weightiness to the markets today, again on uncertainty triple witching on friday which injected a little volatility in the the markets. Today we are also looking at the United Nations General Assembly and other things that might be a little bit prone to headlines moving markets. The vix is up 15. Guy here in europe, the big data from germany is the real catalyst for the Market Action when it came to equities and other Asset Classes as well. You can see it down a little bit. Things really started motoring to the downside is the data started coming out. As you can see, that has resulted in a negative close. 100, with stocks like shell and glaxo commanding some points to the upside. Is factor as well. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of european trading. Data are Steel Companies<\/a> were lower. This follows still companies in europe as well still companies in europe as well down lower. Right now u. S. Steel is back up about half a percent. Lots of optimism in this u. S. Market. Not so much over here. Not when it comes to the manufacturing sector. The economy grinding to a halt in the third quarter. Factories slump and it started to bleed through into the Services Sector<\/a> as well. Specifically, germany is ignores downturn and most seven years. We are joined now by stephen macklowsmith, Market Strategist<\/a> for the International Equity<\/a> group. Good afternoon. The data are bad, stephen. Is that reflected fully and European Equity<\/a> markets . At the moment, yes. You think about where the markets are, basically unchanged in 12 months. Theres been a substantial rally we are pretty even. If you look at the background, one of the drivers has been earnings have been continually downgraded this year, expectations. And that is not a story just about europe. That is true in the states as well and end asiapacific and emerging markets. And in asiapacific and emerging markets. Containing real gdp relatively low levels and no sign of it moving higher. Nominal gdp operating leverage, goes into reverse. There was an expectation earlier this year it would rise and according to bloomberg, that is about 1 . We are kind of flat. It is not clear what is going happen next year and whether there will be a recovery. Guy if i dont have to investigate if i dont have to invest in europe, is there any incentive to put money to work here right now . Maybe there are a couple of companies here and there you can find if youre a bottom up kind of stock picker, but most people these days are increasingly investing in the etf point of view, why would they put money here . The story is about positive opportunities. If you want to put your cash, negative return. Sovereign, that is not great. From an equity point of view, all the earnings have been calm, they have been rising. Not yet sing margins back to cycle highs, so there is some upside for margins if you get some acceleration of global growth. Yes, the story is down at the moment but trade rhetoric altered became less hawkish if there was more sense of a constructive exit from the european union, you might see a change in capex. A change in confidence. That should boost growth. The lead indicator for that is on the credit side, there are encouraging signs. Normally a six month to nine month lead. If we think about book to bill, it has not improved in europe. Clearly, the data state is weak. But it is bottoming out in china and in somewhere like sweden, which is kind of important because sweden is an important source for the european economy. It is not worth giving up just yet. Vonnie stephen, how much more concern does do our customers become on the big geopolitical questions of the day . Are people getting ignored to things like brexit risk and trade risk or other becoming more urgent about what to do about these risks . View, oner point of of the things from the last two years, a continual slew about outflows from retail funds. They have looked at the landscape. They have been withdrawing money from retail funds. My senses a lot of that would be theo with uncertainty about fed situation as youve have rightly diagnosed. But that could turnaround very quickly if a different view is taken in some of the seats of power. , tell us a Stephen Little<\/a> bit about the idea that the fed is working on its own and we have mario draghi begging for fiscal stimulus from european governments. Our Central Banks<\/a> having to take very different approaches to how they try to boost Economic Growth<\/a> in the major developed countries . We have seen it going on in japan for quite some time now, between the u. S. And europe . That is an important question. The room for maneuver Central Banks<\/a> around the world varies for yearly, and the states, theres room for rates to be cut should the fed not necessary. They could also do something about sidestep Balance Sheet<\/a>. Just recently, you started to see the feds Balance Sheet<\/a> increasing again and that maybe in response to what is happening recently in the repo market. We dont know. But the from the ecb point of view, theres been a change the attitude toward negative deposit rates. There is a sense that tearing for banks has will be introduced. Mario draghi made it clear asset purchases were back on the menu. I think one of the most important things that is happen this year is the appointment of Christine Lagarde<\/a> at the ecb. As important as her background, which is as a politician, head of the imf, very, very a droop adroit negotiator. It is interesting who did not get the job. I think theres a slight change in emphasis. I think within the eurozone, there are plenty of governments who are keen to see if theres a little bit of more physical wiggle room then they have allowed themselves 04. That could come either as a National Government<\/a> level or supranational level and forms of europe. I think the hope is there will be more push on the fiscal side next year. Guy if that happens, what is the upside . So the germans decide to spend money. 10 move . Zed move . Si on the trade side, then that could be really quite a story. Guy you talk to people in the states and their terrified missing out on a trade deal. What i get a bigger about in the s p or in the dax on the trade deal . Good question. It is a little difficult to call it exactly, but i think the dax is probably more beaten up than the s p. Potentially, there is more upside in euros on equities just on that rally. So, people are fairly invested in the u. S. They have withdrawn a lot. Vonnie are they holding it in cash . If so, where are they holding it in cash . U. S. Treasuries are not exactly yielding all that much more than anybody else in the world right now. From European Investor<\/a> point of view, one of the things that attracts is first of all you get positive carry but secondly, you have had a stronger dollar. In the median turn, we think the dollar is moderately valued. Just in the last year, if we think about where the returns have come, returns and u. S. Treasuries have been really attractive because youve had a kicker from the dollar. To stickhen is going around, stephen macklowsmith joining us from j. P. Morgan iset management were he asset manager. He will stick around. Lets get a check on global markets. Heres abigail doolittle. Abigail stocks in the u. S. , take a look. Just slightly lower after the european pmis came in disappointing when european shares but in the u. S. , pmi market numbers came in basically inline. Not a lot of reaction. As for the s p 500, and interesting technical look we have in the bloomberg terminal. We can take a look at that and see where the s p 500 is relative to its alltime highs. This chart goes back a year. You can see the s p 500 is really stalling out your two different sets of alltime highs well, only one can be an alltime high. At the point i want to make, the momentum indicator starting to ram down. All of this could suggest perhaps the s p 500 may cool off in the days or weeks ahead. Coolingoff today, take a look at some of the bank stocks. Amazon is lower. This is Morgan Stanley<\/a> has lowered its price target setting margin pressures. We have facebook and netflix lower. Facebook and part of the antitrust probe. Finally, take a look at the 10 year yield. We have yields coming in once again. The 10 year yield down 23 basis points. That is the longest down street for the 10 year yield since early august. This tells us the haven bonds are rallying. You put that together with the fact the s p 500 is stalling out near record highs, and it may suggest some volatility could be had. Vonnie thank you for that. Do you remember the function to tv allows you to browse all of our recent charts . Catch up lanky analysis, save your favorites for future reference. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Lets check in with the bloomberg first word news. Arends has Legal Proceedings<\/a> against a british flag oil tanker help since july have concluded. Held since july have concluded for some the ships crew has not turn on a satellite tracking quitman in nearly two months but there has not been any sign that it has left its position off the iranian coast. Israels arab minority is throwing around its newfound weight. The joint list of arab significant strengthened by israels inconclusive election last week, recommended on sunday that former military chief benny gantz a form the next government. The move could nudge israels instead of Prime Minister<\/a> benjamin netanyahu, Whose Campaign<\/a> preyed on antiherbst sentiment. Democrats are ramping up pressure on President Trump<\/a> after his phone call with ukraines president. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi<\/a> signaled her readiness to take stronger action against the president. The speaker called the president s move a great new chapter of lawlessness. House Intelligence Committee<\/a> chairman adam schiff called the president s action profound violation. In the race for the white house come Elizabeth Warren<\/a> has overtaken joe biden as the frontrunner. This is the latest i will pull. In the iowa caucuses, the massachusetts senator has the support of 22 of likely participants. Joe biden is second with 20 . Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more 120 countries. Vonnie still with us, stephen macklowsmith. How much clarity will we get in the coming earnings season on things like how multinationals are being impacted by trade uncertainty and other geopolitical concerns . It will be totally key. I was telling earlier, the expectations have fallen pretty steadily all year and it will be very important to see whether there is further weakness. In a way, i think the guidance is going to be of more interest to us as investors and the actual numbers. My sense is European Companies<\/a> debt at make adept at making sure they meet guidance. You tendency downgrades coming into the quarter and an out turn roughly in line. But it is the guidance looking forward i think will be really important. As i say, the corporate confidence has really been thected by the notion attacks are been on the Global Supply<\/a> chain. It will be interesting to see exactly where theyre going to seek to make the decision to impeach given that uncertainty. Of ambiguityunts around everything. In all seriousness, when i talk to a ceo of a company, the first thing out must get back is, look, were trying to figure it out. How much visibility do companies actually have . We are all going to Pay Attention<\/a> to the guidance, but how much visibility do they have . Very little. As part of the guidance, they say we have very little visibility therefore are capex in the coming year will be toned down. We will ratchet back some of that from the Capital Investment<\/a> class previously announced. That in itself will be sending a signal about growth. One of the things that has not really happened in the expansion since the great financial crisis is growth in productivity. Youve seen restructure, restructuring of government finances, some growth in real incomes, but you have not releasing any Capital Investment<\/a>s and you have not really seen it looks as if youre going to start to get that your two years ago, but then trade tensions came along and blew it out of the water. Guy no Capital Investment<\/a>s and profit productivity issues. How investable is the ftse 100 as we approach october 31 . A large proportion of the ftse 100 earnings are not related to the u. K. Guy but if we get a deal, the pound goes through the roof. The ftse 100 goes to the floor. The elements the ftse 100 on the translation basis not be affected but there are other elements on the ftse 100 where people have been underinvested in Domestic Companies<\/a> we will have to be nimble and try and make sure we are properly position in our portfolios. Will we think about the negotiations of the european union, there are two prisms. One is exposure to growth and one is exposure to u. K. Sterling earnings. We are currently much neutral on both because we actually trying not to take a view because we dont know how those negotiations will pan out. Vonnie are you taking on your return assumptions for clients . I would imagine it can be easy to promise a return ive any kind these days, but what are you telling them you can achieve for them . I am really glad you asked to that question. We are about to reduce our longterm Capital Market<\/a> assumptions for 2020, which take attended for senior view. Over the last few years, our expected returns have been falling. This year i think youre really going to see returns in the same kind of area. There would it is pretty tough to call significant real returns in european fixed income given where yields have got. Given the growth is also affected by demographic issues around the world, and that is a key driver of Revenue Growth<\/a> for equities, we are still thinking mid Single Digits<\/a> there. Were not painting a particularly rosy picture for clients. But it does point to the imports of them having active management to add value to it could be a pretty pedestrian market return. Vonnie how much risk are you taking in emerging markets or beyond that, Frontier Markets<\/a> . From our International Equity<\/a> group point of view, we have some investments in emerging markets, not directly but through companies we invest in who have investedthere. Our emergingmarket team are sophisticated in their approach. I am lucky enough to sit here on the strategy meetings that they have. Waryare feeling pretty about the future over the next 12 months. They recognize there have been pressures on emerging market growth. I think what they have been hoping for, again, is a ratcheting down in trade tensions. But theyre not holding their breath for that. Guy china is up 30 . That is excluding december, which obviously if you take it out over a longer term time period, a slightly different result. Nevertheless, why should i expect more than 30 out of china this year . That is an eye watering number if i get to the end of the year and can post that in my portfolio. It is interesting. It kind of depends whether china government feels further need to apply stimulus to the economy down the road. Haveeling is they do still a fair amount of firepower they could deploy if they chose to. Guy but they are deploying it because the data are slowing down pretty rapidly. And the question really is, how much of that is reflected in that 30 . Is the balance of risk to the upside . You are saying there more stimulus. Or is it there to mitigate that data and is the stock market really reflecting that . Im wondering where the balance of risk is . Do i bank that number . It depends on your time rise. Im not here to make a call about the shortterm direction of the chinese stock market. There has been a recovery, not in china, but pretty much every developed stock market around the world this year. Europe is up about 15 . That is against the decline of declining earnings expectations and pmis in short supply. Guy on that note, we will leave it. Stephen macklowsmith, jp morgan. This is bloomberg. London, i guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, i am vonnie quinn. Time for your latest Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash. Anothers bracing for landmark privacy decision from the eu. The law forces the tech company to delete links to personal information on request. The court is questioning if the rights should apply globally. The court could reach a decision as early as tomorrow. Out, 21,000y lost jobs at risk and left travelers around the world stranded. Earn 215 million from the bankruptcy of thomas cook. They invested in derivatives that pay out when a company folds. Thomas cook will be the latest of several big payouts for hedge funds and traders. That is your latest Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash. Checking u. S. Markets now, we are fractional in our declines for the s p 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial<\/a> average, which actually has turned positive. It is up 14 points. The nasdaq is still down. General weightiness to the markets today, again on uncertainty triple witching on friday which injected a little volatility in the the markets. Today we are also looking at the United Nations<\/a> General Assembly<\/a> and other things that might be a little bit prone to headlines moving markets. The vix is up 15. Guy here in europe, the big data from germany is the real catalyst for the Market Action<\/a> when it came to equities and other Asset Classes<\/a> as well. You can see it down a little bit. Things really started motoring to the downside is the data started coming out. As you can see, that has resulted in a negative close. 100, with stocks like shell and glaxo commanding some points to the upside. Is factor as well. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of european trading. Data are European Equity<\/a> markets lower, continental markets down by circa 1 . The ftse 100 a little bit. 3 . R, only down by for every stock that has gone up, three have fallen. Let us look at how the session develops, small caps are lower, driven by the data, particularly german manufacturing data, which is very soft. Since then, a very tight range for european market, finishing the day down by, lets call it. 8 . Individual the stories come the ftse is down by dax down by. 1 , the cac down by. 1 . We have seen some defensive buys in the market, food and leveraged stocks best food and beverage stocks Like Unilever<\/a> well. Een doing reasonably that stand out is what is happened within the travel and today. Sector the failure of thomas cook first thing this morning resulted in big moves for its bonds, but also massive moves for the stocks of some of the other travel companies that will benefit as a major market competitor leaves the landscape. That is the story we will address in a little bit more detail. This is what it looks like from a sector point of view. Banks are down lawrence, turquoise, big european lloyds bank down, barclays down, big european banks under pressure today. That is the drag of european stocks. Pressure. We will get some more details on the thomas cook story in just a moment. Easyjet is up by 4. 59 , and thus we talked about the banking sector, the markets are not widely impressed by commerzbank, down by 7. 37 . That is a look at the european close. Vonnie a definite shift in mood in european markets this morning. They were taking their toll from the manufacturing data out of europe. We got manufacturing data here that was better than what economists were looking for. The Services Part<\/a> of the economy disappointed slightly. But in the last few minutes, we stocks. Ng gains in u. S. S p 500 back up, although there are empty up stories of stocks that are lower, we will get to that in a moment. 10 year yield. Higher, in the dollar index is strengthening. Lets move over to exports and look at the groups that are moving. U. S. Steel is higher by 1. 2 , even after a downgrade from j. P. Morgan, which downgraded the entire sector. Still grappling with the downgrade on china and uncertainty. 1. 75 , concerns mile. Its last one analysts say the last mile is supposed to be the cheapest mile, no reason for fedex to be talking about this in that tone. Netflix is down 1. 73 , it has lost a lot of value in the last few days, when you consider the share price, this doesnt seem huge, but it might be presenting us with a buying opportunity. The worst performing index in the s p, the Health Care Distributors<\/a> index down by 2. 72 , due to the potential risk of opioid payments over the weekend, putting weight on that sector today. Guy let us get more insight into the collapse of thomas cook, the company that created the package holiday and why two hedge funds stand to make millions of dollars from the bankruptcy. Joining us in the studio is our european stocks reporter. Good afternoon. Guest good afternoon. And it happen quickly, there is controversy about why it has gone straight into liquidation, have a material impacts on the market is trading. What happened . Guest it . Guest has been a shock to the industry. We bailed out by 1. 1 billion, but last week, thomas cook and its lenders came out and said they would need about 250 million extra, in order to ensure liquidity. The company also wants to the United Kingdom<\/a> government, which was also reluctant to provide that money. As a result, they filed for administration. Vonnie the government has build out situations like this before. Why did it refuse in this instance . As you very well know, the u. K. Economy is in a really bad spot right now because of brexit and political uncertainty. We really dont know whether the brexit negotiations wont lead to a result by the in october, so the government is not in a ofition from a standpoint popularity among the taxpayers, to just go around spending this kind of money. It would have been a really major bailout and with the spending money on what they are spending money on is bringing the stranded citizens back home from their thomas cook locations, currently about 150,000 british citizens are stranded on thomas cook packages abroad. Not to include the foreign citizens. Guy yes, this is a big company that operates across europe, in total about 500,000 people are stranded, other governments having to take action to go. Let us talk about this. Need that this happened best the speed that this lets talk about the speed in which this happened. They need to the maximum number ground. Aft on the theoretically come i dont did you can liquidate a company when it has aircraft in the air. It happened fast. What does that mean for those who bet against thomas cook . Ksenia there are several major asset holders. The shareholders get wiped out completely, bondholders get some of their money back, but only a fraction. The guys who really benefit are the hedge funds who bought the credit default swaps betting on the default of the company, and they were right all along. These are also the guys who were playing against the package bailout deal. 250stand to profit about million, really big. Vonnie great story. And the British Government<\/a> will dollarsing lots of repatriated a lot of these tourists. Thank you to bloombergs synagogue which go ksenia ga louchka. At no shortage of debate the conference, from brexit to Climate Change<\/a>. Bloombergs anna edwards joins us from brighton. Anna, the Brexit Division<\/a> is very much being demonstrated today. We have a key vote coming up. In a idea which way it is going to go . Interesting. Eally we have these votes coming up. Leaders of the labour party trying to persuade the party to follow Jeremy Corbyn<\/a>. We have been listening in the monitor to my right shoulder, you can see pictures coming from the conference floor, where delegates have been debating. We heard both sides of the brexit debate, or at least on one side, and the middle ground, some pushing for a remain stands, others pushing to keep the options open and stay on the fence a little longer. And others suggesting to do what Jeremy Corbyn<\/a> is suggesting, call for an election, and then put that up against remain on the ballot. That is the path Jeremy Corbyn<\/a> wants. It is unclear whether delegates will vote for that or if they will vote for something more explicitly remain, like their rivals, the liberal democrats, have recently done. Brexit still remains at the heart of u. K. Politics and is driving a wedge between the labour party, just as with other parties in the u. K. Nationsthe united General Assembly<\/a>, i believe the liberal party has taken a massive stars on Climate Change<\/a> well. What are they saying . Anna talking about investment in Climate Change<\/a>, to unlock some of the Funds Associated<\/a> with that. They are talking about of a climate emergency. They also talk about how they dont want the financial industry to push against them on this. They say they want. To recommend investment in climateintensive sectors. , gas, mining are big components on the ftse 100, big components of Investment Community<\/a> in london. I asked the shadow secretary about how he would regulate investment in a nonclimate friendly industry. I think it would be a mix of issues. For example, we already have 550 billion[indiscernible] [indiscernible] but for a certain portion of that, which encourage investors in oil and gas. Ell have to look at those there are those incentives. The issue ofther disincentives, and what they might be. Out, that was petered shadow chief secretary of the shadowy peter dowd, treasury voice of the labour party. The conversation remains about. Brexit. Goingked which way it is to go . We could see a situation in which a number of conflicting proposals are approved at the labour party conference, and then will be just as in the dark as with the labor policy of brexit as you have been in many months. Guy i think we can say that more broadly as well. Anna edwards, joining us from brighton. Vonnie lets get back to the latest on wework. The company has delayed their ipo, leading Board Members<\/a> to seek the removal of ceo, adam neumann. The wework Board Meeting<\/a> is unlikely to happen today it is expected later this week,. Our guest joins us with more. What do we know about discussions behind the scenes between the ceo and other parties . Guest so we have an update and it doesnt look like the Board Meeting<\/a> with happened later today, it should happen later this week. It hasnt been scheduled yet, so we are waiting to see when the board will approach adam neumann with the proposal. We now have reporting that softbank expects other Venture Capital<\/a> firms to support him. Is this a comparable situation to uber . Liana i was certainly say so. It has some of the same players. Washmark was the firm that agitating against Travis Kalanick<\/a> at luber. So they certainly have a playbook to work with. The question will be, does adam neumann hold on here . He has more power because of the Corporate Governance<\/a> structure uberTravis Kalanick<\/a> had it who has. Vonnie who has expressed support for adam neumann, and could he win . Guest that is what we are trying to figure out. There is a company in asia that has a board seat, there are also two other seats who are real estate investors. We are trying to figure out who backs him. He certainly made money for others of involved early in the company. Lesson here the regarding companies coming from the private sector into the Public Sector<\/a> . This is in the first time it is happened with uber, and it is happening with a number of companies as well. Are we seeing a devolution, our founders capable of making this transition . Company structures based around our full founders, are they capable of making these transitions . Guest we havent seen an extreme drop in valuation. This is the biggest discrepancy to 10from 47 billion, billion, that is just a huge difference, and that will be the lesson here, should private capital chasing these charismatic founders, when there isnt a lot of transparency into the companys numbers. In your reporting, has any other names come up for potential successors, should they be needed . Liana we are trying to figure out who will take control, but as we said, we dont know how adam neumann will take the news. Dont know if he will be open to anyone else coming in, size of this day, he is still the owner of the company. Vonnie thank you very much, liana baker, on top of the story is always. Guy european indices are done for the day. Continental markets are down circa 1 . Of the data is not good on the manufacturing side. Of the ftse 100 getting some rest bite from the pound today some respite from the pound today. Banks are also under pressure. We will carry on the market dabrage, you can find us on digital radio. Be takingerro will over at the top of the hour, and it will be joining him here in london. This is bloomberg. Guy lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. State Department Spokesperson<\/a> said the u. S. Is exploring several options to address growing tensions with iran. I think the president has indicated that all options are on the table. He continues to meet with his National Security<\/a> team to explore these options. What. Were looking for is to build an International Coalition<\/a> to respond to irans aggressive activity. We know, as the secretary mike pompeo has said, it is physically impossible for the houthis to have conducted this attack. She also said the u. S. Is in favor of a peaceful, diplomatic resolution. President trump has said he has no intention of meeting iranian president rouhani this week. Yesterday, the Iranian Foreign<\/a> minister issued a stern warning to the u. S. On cbs newss face the nation. I am not confident we can avoid a war. I am confident that we will not start one. But i am confident that whoever starts one, will not be the one who finishes it. This comes as the u. S. Is sending more troops to saudi arabia, in response to the attack on the oil fields. Iran has denied responsibility for the stark. Over the weekend in hong kong, protests escalated. Violence erupted in several parts of the city, as unrest continues for a 16th week. Protesters set fires in the streets, police shattering several transit hubs across the region. Hong kong bracing for a surge in demonstrations, next week, on the anniversary of the founding of the peoples republic of china. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. Vonnie courtney, thank you. Time now for our stock of the hour. Beyond meet our cooling. The stock underperformed and has set the lowest price target on the street. We are joined by taylor riggs in San Francisco<\/a>. What happened, taylor . This is blamedf on valuation that is still up triple digits from the ipo. Many analysts are probably thinking the stock got ahead of it on its valuation. A lot of this is just the massive runup you have seen, up about 130 in just the last few months. If you look at the chart i am showing in my bloomberg terminal at gtv , we are looking at the big increase in stock price in july. You come back down to earth, settling here around the average analyst price target of 160, the analysts today coming out with a street low of 70 a share. A lot of this is low barriers to entry, with big competitors like nestle, tyson foods and kellogg coming out with competing products. Big firepower behind those companies, meaning that this could present competition for beyond meet. Guy what does that mean for the top line . Taylor the analyst says he still expects the top line to be in the near term, though longterm headmans might present themselves at the end of the line he is still looking at a company with 130 growth, 200 growth in the next two quarters. Looks like and will basis growth could be slowing in 2020 to 60 , but at least for the near term, you are looking at a really good sales beat as they report earnings for september. Vonnie that was taylor riggs in San Francisco<\/a> with our stock of the hour. This is bloomberg. Devices are like doorways that could allow hackers into your home. And like all doors, theyre safer when locked. Thats why you need xfinity xfi. With the xfi gateway, devices connected to your homes wifi are protected. Which helps keep people outside from accessing your passwords, credit cards and cameras. And people inside from accidentally visiting sites that arent secure. And if someone trys well let you know. Xfi advanced security. If its connected, its protected. Call, click, or visit a store today. Trump my administration was thrilled to bring him back home. Vonnie President Trump<\/a> leading an event that the United Nations<\/a> on religious freedom. You can hear him talking. This was an unexpected appearance by President Trump<\/a> at the Climate Change<\/a> summit at the you and General Assembly<\/a>. For more, we are joined by numbers National Security<\/a> reporter. Obviously, the assembly is going on all week. The president was not expected. To appear. In the idea as to what he appeared . Guest there was a lot of news going on today, particularly ukraine. He may have seen this surprise visit as a way to take some of the attention off the phone call with ukraines leaders and what he would have said about from a Vice President<\/a> biden. Expectations. Ow. It was seen as unusual that the u. S. Would not be participating in the Global Climate<\/a> summit. The other big noshow is brazils president. I think President Trump<\/a> takes some of the criticism of the plate with his appearance there. We will be trying to follow up and see if there is any news from the u. S. Side on what they intend to do about climate issues. Guy . Guy given the geopolitics of late, when do you expect of Biggest Surprise<\/a> to come out of the unga. North Korea Remains<\/a> on the agenda the iran situation, what is your sense of what will happen this week . Where did that potential surprises . Guest the Biggest Surprise<\/a> would be if President Trump<\/a> and the irene president rouhani can somehow pull off a meeting, even if it is on the sidelines and short, as a way to defuse some of the tensions with have seen in the last couple of weeks with the iranian president. Both sides are not entirely ruling it out, but politically, it is difficult for the iranians to go forward with a meeting, while their countries under some sanctions. They say that essentially, they want to be it with to sell their oil and, they want a reprieve from the uns sanctions, event have a meeting. It is hard to imagine that happening, but with Donald Trumps<\/a> appearance at the Climate Change<\/a> event this is the kind of forum, where those unexpected meetings do take place. Vonnie President Trump<\/a> will address the uns General Assembly<\/a> tomorrow. Do we know anything about what the speech might contain . Guest there might be some talk about the u. S. Church you all in countering an authoritarian government. I think for President Trump<\/a>, that will point towards iran. But also makes it harder to meet with them before hand, but i think there will be a lot of expectations about President Trump<\/a>s surprise lines in that speech. Remember, this is now his third u. N. G. A. He talked about kim jongun as little rocket man three years ago. He regularly picks up a few lines in a fight no one is expecting before hand so there are a lot of expectations about his speech. Interestingly, he will be in the waiting room with three leaders he has close ties with, egypts president , is ills president , and turkish president erdogan, a lot of people he likes to spend president , egypts brazil chechen president , and the turkish president. Vonnie thank you. Coming up, balance of power with david westin. It will be talking on trade with his guest, and, of course, the you and General Assembly<\/a>. This is bloomberg. Bly. This is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters<\/a> in new york, i am david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics with the world of business. We will be talking about the growing dispute of president ukraine. Ealings with from london, joe easton on the bankruptcy of thomas cook and those stranded passengers. We start in new york. We have the Climate Change<\/a> issue front and center. President trump showed up unexpectedly. What does the secretarygeneral want to get out of this . The secretarygeneral has given the his podium to countries who he says have stepped up the fight and are coming to the table with new proposals. Countries like france and germany invited to give major speeches on what their agenda is. Until President Trump<\/a> showed up today, we didnt expect in the u. S. Presence. Brazil is another big snow","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601006.us.archive.org\/1\/items\/BLOOMBERG_20190923_150000_Bloomberg_Markets_European_Close\/BLOOMBERG_20190923_150000_Bloomberg_Markets_European_Close.thumbs\/BLOOMBERG_20190923_150000_Bloomberg_Markets_European_Close_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}