Anna the u. S. Urges an immediate ceasefire in syria after sanctioning three officials and hiking tariffs. Week. Is possible this a positive tone on brexit in contrast to the overnight negativity. Wall streets biggest banks report, jp morgan leading among rates and trading concerns. The entanglement with wework is in focus. Matt we are getting those headlines from Michel Barnier, boosting the pound a little higher. We are looking at 126. 74. The optimism is therefore a brexit deal. It will be crunch time now, a few days away from Super Saturday sitting a parliament. We will be watching every development closely. Grip each headline. Futures are up across the board. Yesterday we had wobbly trade in terms of the cash market. European and u. S. Indexes did close lower at the end of the day. We saw a rally in tokyo. Now we see futures rise. Ax futures up 0. 75 this is a significant boost. A little drop yesterday did not come close to erasing 4 gains last week. We have seen real gains across equity indexes the last five or six sessions. 0. 5 futures, green errors, on the s p, nasdaq, and dow jones future. Anna things look more mixed in the asian section session. A little more mixed. Japanese market is playing catchup. The indian index is the best performer. The trade announcements seems to be delivering for another day of gains in europe and the u. S. This lingering on the pound story, you have a chart on what is doing on the barnier headlines. Mind we are all day traders now it seems. We had comments from the finnish premier who said it will not be possible to get a deal this week. It may need to go into next week, but Michel Barnier is talking about something positive and the pound continues to gain. The turkish lira some volatility after the u. S. Administration puts sanctions on three individuals and increasing steel tariffs. Lets talk about where the Global Economy goes from here. We are joined by ludovic subran, chief economist, allianz, good to have you with us. Lets start with what is going on in the u. K. We are in danger of jumping on every headline we get on the brexit story. Being in berlin, you must understand the closeness of the deadline. What are your expectations . Ludovic i wish i could share the closeness of the deadline. They are playing hard to get. We are away from where we were for so many months, so that is a positive development, but we are not optimistic yet. There is still a long road to go, especially on the u. K. Side the leadership is erratic. We are optimistic, the markets are optimistic and have priced in the pound. The real issue will be about the ireland deal because today we have not heard the ireland version of the story, so i would be careful. Clearly, this is the first in the past three months we are happy. Markets maythe rejoice. Look at the real economy, what is interesting is the stockpiling by u. K. Corporates is at a record high. Ofn if there is an extension the deal or if there is a deal, the u. K. Economy will be in the doldrums for some time to go. We need to watch closely the development, but we hope for the best and plan for the worst. Matt what are your clients doing in terms of u. K. Assets . The last threeid years, Big International companies in the ftse 100, but when the pound shows this strength, those earnings are deluded. Ludovic when the currency goes pragmatic. Ents are they are trying to whether the inputs whichgher have been for 69 months. If itre waiting to see can explode at one point. The inventories are so high that it will take time to absorb the shock. Everybody is looking for signs of optimism. Anna have you done any work on the impact of Boris Johnsons flavor of brexit, what that does to the u. K. Economy or the euro zone economy or even the Global Economy . From a global perspective, it is not asked significant, but what work have you done on the latest proposals from Boris Johnson, and what that does to Global Economics . We have crunched the numbers quite a few times, and the positives react to the market, but on the real economy and the stockpiling of the corporate side, there is a lack of confidence. We can see the u. K. Economy rebound. We could see exports up from countries like germany, italy, the netherlands. We are talking about one billion or country over the next six months. The real issue is that the u. K. Economy has shrunk by 10 to 18 if you look at different nominal values. The regain of confidence and Foreign Direct Investment and m a in the business sector will take time to anchor the confidence. If there is an extension, or a mini deal, that does not mean there will not be tension between the countries on what comes next. You say europe is playing hard to get. Wasnstagram a picture posted a couple days ago, is europe in a position to play hard to get . Of the economy is teetering on the edge of a recession. A lot of people say germany is in a recession. If the brexit deal goes wrong, isnt that painful for the european economy . That is the biggest mistake they have made, they say they are prepared. President marcon was boasting that they are ready to let the u. K. Go without a deal. When you look at the numbers, a third of the companies are ready. I do not think any business is ready to let go of the u. K. We are playing good to we are playing hard to get on the deal side, but everybody is crossing their fingers. Bluff betweenr politicians. On the business side, everybody is concerned that politicians get us in a difficult corner. Three of the big countries in thate, this is something has been catching a lot of attention away from the real issues. Country when you look at the weakness in the service sector, it is what we have to live with, and markets are waiting for a signal to make sure they anchor expectations because everybody wants out of this corner. Anna thank you very much, ludovic subran, chief economist, allianz. We are hearing from the irish broadcaster that the u. K. Is set to make fresh proposals on brexit. The foreign minister sites the need to protect the u. K. And improve its brexit proposals. The pound is falling a little on those lines after the initial surge higher. The initial surge was sparked by optimism from Michel Barnier speaking this morning. Up next, raging a ceasefire, the u. S. Calls on turkey to stop its military advance, but stop short of demanding a withdrawal. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. I am matt miller in berlin futures very positive trade across European Equity indexes. But the futures not gaining as much because we have a decent gain in the pound after lines from Michel Barnier that a brexit deal is not impossible as we get closer to the deadline. If they do not have a deal by the 19th, which is saturday or sunday, then Boris Johnson has to call for a delay, which he says he will not do. Lets get bloomberg first word news. Chief executive carrie lam continues to defy her critics. And a Weekly Briefing she denied violence is not the solution to months of unrest. A new legislative agenda tomorrow, but any lessee is likely to be overshadowed by continued the tests. A 5k is working toward billion debt package led by j. P. Morgan. Lender istreet pitching investors on what would be one of the riskiest offerings in recent years. Some of the financing that include unsecured with an unusually hefty coupon of 15 . Qantas is attempting the first new york to sydney flight on friday. At nearly 20 hours it is set to be the worlds longest, no airline has completed the rout without stopping. How will humans hold up . Scientists will be on hand to monitor the brains of the pilots and a few dozen passengers. Cass returned to investors on the earliest opportunity. Cash returned to investors on the earliest opportunity. The financial manager would withstand the financial world by freezing the flagship funds. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Thank you. President trump has called on turkey for an immediate ceasefire in syria. The white house announced sanctions on three turkish officials and hiked steel tariff s. Significance of the american sanctions . Both far sanctions from the u. S. And the eu have been limited despite the International Outcry on turkeys operation in syria. Previously, donald trump said he would destroy turkeys economy if it continued its dangerous path in syria. Investors are expecting something more severe, and they have not got that. After the sanctions were announced, the lira appreciated against the dollar. Deters also unlikely to military operations in syria, and President Trump also made it clear he is calling for an immediate ceasefire in syria, rather than a full withdrawal by turkish troops. That is very significant. Turkish stock markets are about to open. We will be watching banking stocks and fuel producers. Yesterday, before the sanctions were announced, istanbul fell to lows, the lowest since march. Matt thank you very much. The latest on this developing story. Ludovic subran, chief economist, allianz is still with us in berlin. Interesting what is going on in turkey after the president gave them the green light, and now he is trying to stop them with weak economic sanctions. What do you make of erdogans attempt to stop inflation and halt the weakening currency with Interest Rate cuts . It almost looked like it work. Ludovic when president erdogan said he would do that, it would push up Interest Rates and everybody laughed at him. A issue with turkey is the business sector is secluded from the public side, and what you see is the tightening of the belt. In dollars, but they have been trading on a more cautious basis. The Banking Sector is still strong in turkey. The stabilizers on the private side have been working, but it is true when you look at the new wave of geopolitical risk, and what has happened in turkey, it does not smell good or farewell. You have this madman theory where each time they use escalation to double the bets. We are watching closely. Turkey is and nato, and our border, so we have to be careful. It could cost a lot to germany if turkey goes to shambles. About theit worried development on the turkish side, but more importantly we look at the turkish lira and we see there is some interesting development. It shows it is more complicated. The german exporters are the first to know about that. Your thoughtset on the Global Economy. I have been reading about percentage chances of a global recession or a u. S. Recession. Where do you think either of those is headed . I have a chart showing the probability of a recession in the u. S. Economy, and people are asking if it goes over 30 probability does that mean we see a recession . Ludovic we expect the u. S. 2020, on the investment of companies, and the political tensions. Matt six months, bottom out . Ludovic we expect a recession at the beginning of 2020, and then Central Banks save the day. Because of the fed which is doing qe without saying it is qe, everybody is looking and we are talking about flatlining. The u. S. Economy should be on a growth rate around zero at the beginning of 2020, which is where we were in q1 2016 during the Election Year when hillary and trump were running together. We are close to that situation, and so we avoid a recession, but not is interesting is it is all truth where you are close to zero, it could go down quickly. When you see liquidity, you see also what can happen with political risk. Trump is escalating medical attention. We are watching carefully because it is fine line between flatlining and recession. In europe we are a bit more resilient with the Financial Markets and political risk. Us. thank you for joining we appreciate your time. Ludovic subran, chief economist, allianz. We are minutes away from the open. Stocks to watch, including hello fresh. They boost its guidance. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. We are joined by annmarie hordern. This is a company that is facing multiple threats to its opioid addiction treatments including a u. S. Federal case and a lot of generic competition. They are saying sales of their treatment are falling less quickly than expected. The erosion from generics is not going as fast as expected. It should get a boost, but the shares have been beaten down some of what they were. Resh, you can expect a pop at the open. They are boosting their forecast. Thirdquarter revenue is way ahead of expectations. Much. Thank you very the open is next. This is bloomberg. From the couldnt be prouders to the wait did we just winners. Everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Call, click, or visit a store today. Start of cash equity trading. The Asian Session on the msci asiapacific up 0. 6 . Some catchup in japan. Broadly speaking, pretty mixed on the Asian Session, pretty flat. Gloves coming off on the trade deal. More on the u. S. And european futures in a moment. A deal may be difficult, we have had the Dutch Delegation in brussels talk about the need for the u. K. To come through with new proposals. Movement on turkish assets, the turkish lira gaining despite sanctions imposed by the u. S. Administration on three officials. This is what futures show us now. Dax and attack futures up dax futures up by around 0. 6 . Futures up a little higher. Strength in the pound could lead to weakness in stocks, but that inverse correlation not necessarily holding firm and not at the individual stock level. The last couple of sessions we have seen domestic stocks in a different fashion. The ftse 100 does go higher, up by 0. 2 . Spanish ibex up around 0. 5 . 0. 7 . Tch market up by the big movement in the pound obvious to see. The euro with a little strength. Dollar weakness is a feature of the overnight session. Lets look at the sector breakdown and how it plays out from a topdown perspective. One key message is that everything seems on the rise apart from the energy sectors, the i. T. Space, a few staples and telecom names. We are going higher and it is a broadbased rally. That is what is suggested by this sector breakdown. Matt we are seeing all most every stock on the stoxx 600 gain this morning. 517, 521, 523 stocks gaining and that number continues to climb. Only about 60 are down. If you look at the big gainers, hayes plc is one of the biggest gainers, up 4. 3 . Hayes coming out with earnings news that it had good net cash position in line with forecasts. Headcount was up, confidence continues for the longterm. Hayes continues to rise and adding the most points to the stoxx 600. Kema is up, royal bank of scotland, a lot of banks putting up some gains. On the downside you have beltway ,ith earnings bellway earnings pretax release were less than expected. One of the biggest losers, the biggest point reducer on the stoxx 600. Cointreau alsoy among the losers. European markets opening higher this morning as investors consider the possibility of a trade truth between the u. S. And china. We had the handshake deal on friday. A little bit of the shine coming off of the excitement yesterday. Some cold water thrown on the excitement as sources close to the chinese say they still want to talk before signing the agreement on paper. Joining us now is karen ward, managing director chief Market Strategist emea, jp morgan Asset Management. What do you make of the situation currently in terms of the trade war and do you expect a truce . A partial truths, partial optimism. The administration has been treading this difficult balance to continue the agenda, there is a lot of Political Capital within the u. S. Electorate about resolving these trade practices with china. It seems much of the growth has been unfair among the u. S. Electorate. At the same time not risking trumps expansion is each tries to get reelected. It demonstrates the knowledge meant about balance and playing a longer game. Postponing the out deadlines. Ng that is positive relative to where we were six weeks ago. Anna that is positive, it is all relative. To bring a few breaking lines of ceo is the audience, the leaving early 2020. Some information about the new ceo. A chemical company. Plant to be built in turkey. Lets turn to what we are talking about here, the Global Growth story and how the markets respond. I have a chart that shows the s p, and this is a narrow range of the last couple of months, since july. I wonder what it takes to break out. We did get a handshake at least between the u. S. And china. Is that enough to break us out of the range we are in . What do we need, legal text . Trade is one element of the story, but on the other end there is an extraordinary aggressive support from the Central Banks. A commitment to do whatever it takes. In terms of breaking out of the range, i am watching the trade development. On the upside, i think we have to see something conclusive, and talking about tariff reducing reducing tariffs. In the look at surveys u. S. Population, it does not look any interest to play that card right now for the administration. This agenda and hardline will be part of the rhetoric that builds toward the election. It will take a lot to convince the market that this trade war is behind us. At the same time, eyes on the Central Banks and how much of a are willing to do to be preemptive, aggressive, and whether fiscal policy will support them as well. Matt we just spoke to ludovic subran, chief economis