Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20240713

The Prime Minister prepares to ask lawmakers to support his brexit deal. Does he have the votes . We will be live all morning from westminster and brussels. A sterling outcome. Goldman and Credit Agricole remain bullish predictions for the pound, seeing a mediumterm rise to 1. 35 or higher. Kicks off european earnings season with a reiteration of its strong preliminary result. We will speak with the cfo, luka mucic, shortly. Less than half hour away from the european open. Im looking at a three day trade of the pound. We are holding at the high levels we have seen the highest levels we have seen since may. The pound doing quite well at 1. 2925, at one point reaching on 1. 30. Trade to almost it is getting there for sure. Take a look at what we see in terms of the futures trade, just 30 minutes away from the start of cash trading across europe and in the u. K. 0. 2 after s. A. P. Earnings. Ftse futures relatively flat right now. You also see futures gaining in terms of the u. S. Trade. Those gains continue to climb throughout the morning. If you look at s p, dow, and nasdaq, these are the many contracts, now up 0. 2 in the case of tech stocks. Lets get back to brexit. Boris johnson makes the renewed attempt to win parliaments backing for his brexit deal. He was forced to write to the eu seeking a threemonth delay after losing a crucial vote on saturday. Confidence is growing he has the support of 320 mps needed to make progress this week, either through his socalled meaningful vote today or legislation in plummeting the deal tomorrow. Labor could back the new deal as well as long as it is put to a second referendum. The pound fell a little bit in asian trading, but really it is one dollar 29 cents, almost 1. 30, levels we have not seen since may. Joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. Forced to send a letter asking for a delay to brussels. He also said, by the way, i dont want that. Doesnt the European Union basically have to grant this . Good morning. The mood, i have to say, is wait and see. One of the things we are being told is that the Prime Minister has not lost the vote. He has not been defeated. A lot can happen from now to october 31. In terms of the extension, they make note of it, but the European Union does not want to preempt moves the Parliament May make. There is a debate how long the extension should go on for. Im sure you saw those lines out of the times of london saying until will grant time february 2020. That means extra time can seal the deal and the u. K. Would be allowed to leave before that if any deal goes through. To answer your question, can this still be blocked . Member states have a rate a right, but it seems unlikely a single state would push the u. K. Out of the eu and precipitate a series of events no one could control. The mood is wait and see. Lets see what the parliament does and then we will make a decision. Matt lets get over to David Merritt right now at westminster. A key question, maria and everybody else in brussels is waiting to see the answer to, does johnson have the votes to get this deal through . Yes and no, perhaps. Yes, we have the foreign secretary dominic raab saying yes, the government does have that magic 320 number. That is what they tried to do on saturday and failed. They may get another chance. But that is not the end of the story. They need to also get the Withdrawal Agreement passed into law. Thats going to be more complicated. We are already seeing the labour party talking about amendments they might put on that legislation. Is like committing to a Customs Union, which rips up a big chunk of johnsons deal. Even a second referendum or a peoples boat. At peoples vote. There are many more hurdles than just getting a simple majority. These are the big questions. Getting anything through is far harder than it might seem. Matt when are we going to know if john bercow allows a vote today, when will we seeing all the amendments tabled for tomorrow . It is complicated. We are getting into the weeds of the complex procedures we have in the place behind me. The speaker will rule later today, possibly not until this afternoon, whether or not we are going to get this meaningful vote the government wants. He says it has already been asked on saturday and rules of Parliament Say you cannot ask the same question in the same sitting twice. These are fairly exceptional circumstances, so he may lead that boko through. If that does not happen or even if it does, tomorrow we are going to get the first of the votes on the actual withdrawal. That is amendable. We expect the labour party to table first of all this question about a Customs Union. They are going to try to make the deal a lot softer, much closer ties Going Forward with the European Union, and rumors the dup might be on board for that. Keeping the whole of britain in the Customs Union will take away the debate they like so much, this question of a border. Today and tomorrow are going to be crucial days. We are going to get a sense for what position they are going to take and whether they have the numbers to stop mr. Johnsons deal in its tracks. Matt thanks very much. ,avid merritt, maria tadeo joining us. This is an issue we are going to continue to follow day in and day out this week. Possibly through 2020. Stocks in asia were mixed, but slightly to the upside. Wes goodman, bloomberg mliv strategist, is standing by in singapore. What is the outlook for the pound . Morning. The Prime Minister is seeking another vote on his brexit plan. He seems to be indicating he has enough votes. That would be good for the pound. You mentioned the Goldman Sachs forecast of 1. 35 if that passes. The opposite is also true. I repeat my admonition that brexit has disappointed us so many times, and i think one very likely outcome here is that it all just gets delayed. Taking the can down the road kicking the can down the road. If that is the case, all these uncertainties over the u. K. Economy will still be there. That will be bad for the pound. On the mliv blog we are seeing if there is just a delay, the pound could go below let me check my notes. Below 1. 28. Matt i want to ask you about german bund futures. Both of us were surprised to see ecb policy makers opposition to further easing. Itself,interesting in but we are seeing also bund yields at 38 basis points. I was surprised to hear this, too. Opposition to further easing. I thought based on their last statement they would be open to further easing. That does come as a surprise. The 10 year german bund yield at 38 basis points. Tot in august it was closer 70. Those deeply negative numbers, closer to 70, are probably ancient history now. This sets up an interesting contrast with the fed. The forecast, the odds for a fed rate cut are growing. It now looks like the ecb is on hold. If you look at the u. S. Spread over germany, around 200 basis points now, the u. S. Premium over german bunds will narrow in the weeks ahead. Matt thanks very much for joining us. Wes goodman, bloomberg mliv strategist. You can access his work by typing mliv on your bloomberg terminal. New management pledge continuity after a strong thirdquarter. One constant is the cfo. Luka mucic stays at the German Software giant and talks to us about their plans for the future. Dont miss that interview, next. Remember, Bloomberg Radio is live on your mobile device or dab digital in the london area. Matt welcome back to bloomberg markets. This is the european open. A big stock on the dax and the stoxx 600 has confirmed its forecast for 2019 after final numbers for the Third Quarter sales and revenue topped estimates. The Software Company had reported its preliminary figures earlier this month on the departure of its ceo. Joining us from waldorf, the german headquarters of s. A. P. , is luka mucic, the cfo. You will remain a constant, saying on with your new coceos. Let me ask you what it means to lose bill mcdermott. He has been a force behind s. A. P. For a decade now. Really a legend in the business, in the industry. What does it mean for you to lose bill . Thanks for having me, first of all, and thanks for the question. The and i and the rest of executive cohort have been partnering for a long time. Bill, also a team of course, performed remarkably well, have set s. A. P. On a new strategic path and we are continuing to benefit from strategic choices. While it was surprising for all of us that bill announced his decision to not renew his contract, at the same time, one of the biggest qualities of a great leader is that you leave a sustainable legacy behind. I feel that we are very well placed with a strong executive team. We have two new coceos, who have been on board for a long time, who have helped to shape the strategy we have all embarked on as members of the executive board. Continuity will see and leading from a position of strength. We had great quarterly results. We are on track to meet shortterm and midterm ambitions. While of course bills departure is a lot, we are well set up is a loss, we are set up to take the torch and run with it even faster than in the past. Matt not something she wants to focus on, but for jenna morgan, this is a milestone in germany. She is the first female ceo of a dax company. What does it mean to you to have coceos again . Andp. Seems to go back forth between coceos and soul leaders. Leaders. Is it important to have that split . Luka let me put it this way. We have a good history with coceos as the company has always been thriving on innovation, but also empathy with customers. German christians by the nature of their upbringing bring that to the table. Jenna morgan has been focusing on our Cloud Business is lately. Christian comes with this focus on the innovation that he is responsible for Solution Development or a while now. I have been working closely with him as a member of my Team Previously on the executive board. That balance and very couple mentoring skills set they bring to the table will be benefiting s. A. P. A lot and at the same time of course we have the team that has been around for a long time. Running the organization with myself and the other members of the executive board who can support jen and christian as they embark on the exciting mission. This is a Complementary Team we have put together. Together we will continue to ride the success story. Matt i have this function on the bloomberg, im sure it is a screen you are familiar with. ,t shows you have debt here almost 11 billion in , actually 10. 2 billion in corporates. You have said you want to deleverage faster. What are the goals you are looking for . How do you balance that with share buybacks . We will outline in greater detail our Capital Allocation strategy for the next couple of years at our special Capital Markets in new york on november 12. From a highlevel perspective, our priorities from Capital Allocation have not really changed. We have always said we want to sufficiently invest in organic innovation and we are doing so. Luckily, our needs for capex investments have come down. We havef course, investment needs in this respect. We will continue to pay a strong and growing dividend. We will have enough room to make small expositions if enough opportunity presents itself, even though our strategy for the next couple of years will be organically focused. If then there is enough space left of course, deleveraging is a continued priority. S. A. P. Has always had a conservative balance sheet. At the present time we are having roughly 1 , one point ratio, we want to continue to push that down over the course of the coming few years. Historically we have always remained at the 0. 5 mark. That would be a reasonable target for the future as well. Left, wee excess cash will consider additional options , whether it is additional dividends or share buybacks. We are still in the process of finalizing our corresponding set of actions. We will communicate it when we are ready and definitely a great deal at the Capital Markets. Matt im sure you are set up exactly the way you want to be right now, but if you are going to make any goals on acquisitions, in which areas do you think you can see the most opportunity . Luka frankly, we have no concrete plans. It would not be possible for me to cite any concrete areas. We are focused on organic innovation. Some optionality is always important, but nothing concrete at the moment. Matt thank you so much for joining us. Luka mucic, the chief Financial Officer of s. A. P. We are minutes away from the open. Next, your stocks to watch, including wirecard, the german Payments Company has hired kmpg for another independent audit following further reports of accounting irregularities. Matt we are just six minutes away from the start of trade. Thats get your stocks to watch. Looking at wirecard, u. K. Midcaps, and the latest in brexit. Whats the story with wirecard . Wirecard shares are indicated up this up, decently morning in premarket. The company just issued a statement this morning saying they hired an auditor to look into the latest allegations reported by the financial times. The auditors will have unhindered access to all Company Documents and investors seem to be happy with this move afterrease transparency those allegations of accounting irregularities. Matt joe, you are looking at u. K. Midcaps. Is this really brexit uncertainty . Or is this the most certain we have been in the last three years . Good morning. As you said, it is unsure which direction the markets will take this, but certainly the u. K. Midcaps will be in focus again today. There may potentially be downside given the pound slipped in the sector does track the sterling against the dollar rate. It might be contained. The deal may well get through according to what we are hearing later in the week. The move to the downside might be contained. We will certainly keep an eye on the u. K. Domestic banks like rbs and lloyds and also the homebuilders. With that sector, there has been good data on the London Housing markets. We have seen a rebound in the london house prices. All those sectors have been weighed on by uncertainty in focus again today. Going to bee are watching the Property Companies after berlin gets ready to pass a law saying you cannot raise the rent for the next five years. The open in two minutes time. Matt we are just about one minute away from the start of cash trading across europe and the u. K. Lets look at the markets this morning. We dont see a heck of a lot of movement. I guess we could try to dramatic size the moves around the pound as much as possible, but the fact is, we are at the highest level we have been since may. There was a spike upward on friday almost a 1. 30. Right now 1. 2921, so right around there. The market is fairly confident theres not going to be a nodeal e. U. No deal brexit. Oil relatively little changed right now. S p futures are up, as our european are european futures, although the gains are not huge, to say the least. Now getting to the markets, lets see if the futures were indicative of the actual numbers we see on the screen. In terms of the u. K. , the ftse is completely unchanged right now, but otherwise we see very few markets open. The cac and dax will take a little longer. Kindbex up 0. 2 , so spain of leading, even after those protests continue in catalonia, in barcelona. We see spanish stocks continuing to rise. Duchess stocks up 0. 1 as well up 0. 1 asocks open well. As far as on the continent, starting to see movement. Cac down 0. 1 . Still waiting for the dax, which could take a little longer for stocks like s p to open. Take a look at the breakdown of the bloomberg 500 index. Pretty see we have a even split between gains and losses in industry terms, what you would expect with such Little Movement on the actual stock index prices. In terms of what we see here, financials doing relatively well this morning, staples and health care doing poorly. That could be a positive sign, as you see stocks that are, Industry Groups that are typically defensive like consumer staples, health care, moving lower, and Industry Groups you want to see lead a rally up, financials for example if you are long stocks, are a great leader to rallies you expect to be sustainable or hope. The stoxx 600, the individual stocks, seeing where we are going. 315 up, 244 are down. So a pretty even split. Were yet to see the dax open, but we see some of the german stocks trading. . A. P. Currently up 0. 2 at the top of the screen, asml gaining 0. 8 . Tech stocks to the upside with the financials we saw. Santander, loyds, bnp paribas, aviva, zurich insurance. Almost all the gainers with the exception of asml, daimler, sap, are financial stocks, in the top 10 at least. The bottom 10, those taking the most away from the stoxx 600. Smith and nephew at the top, down 3. 7 this morning. Keep an eye on whats going on there with smith and nephew. Looking at the other losers, danone down 1 , unilever down almost 1 . These are the defensive stocks we looked at, that are not doing terribly well, but thats not necessarily a bad sign. Deutsche of own and wonen, one of the big Property Owners in germany, down as berlin decides owners are not allowed to raise rent for the next five years, stocks like that will suffer. Now, Boris Johnson will make a renewed attempt to win Parliament Backing for his brexit deal. The Prime Minister was forced to write to the e. U. Seeking a threemonth delay that he clearly doesnt want, after losing a crucial vote on saturday. But confidence is growing he has the support, even without that negotiating tool, of 320 mps, the numbe

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