Intraday, but havent closed above it in quite some time. Looking to see whether we can break that streak. Took a look at whats been happening in the treasury market. The and year8 on treasury right now. Just two weeks ago, we were about 25 points below where we are today. A lot of that selling coming into treasuries doesnt seem to be abating. Mind, a lot of the activity we are seeing in the activity we are seeing in the u. S. Dollar is tethered pretty strongly, at least today, to what is going on with the pound and with brexit. Then you see crude oil, very fragile market here. A lot of folks looking at the demand side of the equation. The Global Growth picture really isnt Strong Enough to build into this 53. 24 that is your number on wti nymex crude. Guy the pound unchanged as we await to find out was a Prime Minister has the numbers to get his deal over the line. We now know a vote will take place tomorrow. Be dax up by over 1 . Stocks like wirecard having a very good day. In westminster within the last halfhour, the u. K. Parliament Speaker John Bercow has denied Boris Johnson a second meaningful vote on his brexit deal in the house of commons. What happens now . Lets go back to westminster, where we are joined by emma chandra. What happens tomorrow . Movesall attention now toward the Withdrawal Agreement bill. This is a huge piece of legislation that would essentially bring the brexit deal as negotiated by Boris Johnson and the eu into u. K. Law. If the house of commons votes for the second reading, that would be seen as a huge victory for Boris Johnson, essentially saying that mps back the brexit deal. Following that would be a vote on a Program Motion. This is key because this would mean that brexit can still be done by that deadline of 31 october. The vote on the Program Motion essentially votes to accelerate the process by which this Withdrawal Agreement bill would move through parliament. It would get it through all of its house of commons stages by friday. That is very quick, but remember, we saw something similar with the benn act. That would allow the house of lords to sit in a special session on the weekend to give their approval to that bill, and the aim for the government is that it would allow it to become law by 31 october. There are a number of hurdles within this, not least the government having to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement bill for the second time tomorrow. They are pretty confident that they do have the votes, and there is the case of whether there would be any amendments added to the bill and how that would impact its passage. Guy thank you very much indeed. We will continue to keep you updated with what is happening in westminster. Lets get some more insight as to what is happening with this brexit process. Joining us in the studio, stephen gallo, bmo Capital Markets head of european ethics strategy, and tony travers, London School of economics professor of economics and belittle science. Will they have the numbers and political science. Will they have the number to get this through . Yes. Despite the apparent move towards a withdrawal deal, they voted against him on saturday. Now he thinks he can put the withdrawal deal tomorrow to parliament, and the second reading, the first stage of it will probably go through. However, the Committee Stage where mps canned a mens the bill, and they will try to do that where mps can try to amend the bill, they will try to do that. Then it goes back to the comments. We member, this all has to be 31 october. All, by is going to be pretty quick stuff by legislative standards. Guy not a completely done deal after tomorrow. Tony no. Guy the market is basically pricing that we are there now, almost. We were trading at 1. 30 earlier on the cable. Walk me through what you expect over the next way for hours if we get the second reading in the government getting that boat over the line. Stephen i think it is pretty clear that cable will probably trade towards 1. 35 quite quickly, especially in a situation where liquidity is pretty poor. That could well be the case in cable. In the much bigger picture, though, i think you have to look at the situation for the u. S. Dollar and consider the fact that we are now into the final stretches of 2019. Long dollar has been a profitable position this year in fx. I think a lot of investors are taking their money off the table. They are looking at the u. S. China situation. Those guys are playing nice for now. Maybe they will talk more in november and december. Brexit could get resolved pretty soon without a no deal brexit. I think you are seeing that across the broader fx space. Romaine when we talk about the direction where where the pound may end up, where the dollar may end up, im curious as to how much volatility is going to happen in between along that path. Now, if i think right you are looking at the disposition of markets, if you are looking at the situation which i just described where a lot of bad news is coming out of the price, it looks to me right now, the way to make money is to be into the risk on trade. You want to generally be short dollar on most axes, short treasuries come along equities. You probably want to hold some gold in your per folio as a hedge. I still think the global backdrop is pretty weak. We are still pretty much in a low growth, high debt situation for the global economy, and there are a lot of assets out there which i think ethics investors or investors generally investors or investors generally will have questions about. Given the slow growth trap and the debt traps i just described. Romaine when you look at where we are today and what the progress that weve made moving towards that brexit line, im wondering, once we get there, is that a sort of signifier of a resolution of that referendum from three years ago, or have we sort of not gotten to the stage where we negotiate the bigger issues that the u. K. Is going to have to deal with once brexit itself is a reality . Tony these are foothills, but they are very long persisting foothills. I think the market once some certainty if this deal goes through. I agreed is more likely to go through than not. That does give a degree of certainty, but only up to a point because then the trade deals between the u. K. And the eu, the u. K. And everybody else, all that process has to begin. That will go on far longer than anybody currently discussing, with the risk of another no deal cliff edge at the end of next year, and that is probably going to be extended into 2021 or 2022. So this is the end of the beginning, if it happens. It is the end of the formal detachment, only the beginning of all that follows, and there will be lots of twists and turns for many years to come. Guy just to be clear, what youre talking about is it withdrawal process we are going to go through over the next year. At the end of that, you would hope that they would be a new trade deal in place, and as a result of which, you would transition through the transition period and into that deal. But if there is no deal in place, the no deal possibly still exists because there would be no deal to transition to. Tony absolutely. The reason i think the markets like the withdrawal deal is that not much changes. However, when the transition comes to an end, no deal exists because of difficulty in the negotiations, then you could get back to a no deal position. I expect the transition period will have to be extended past the end of 2020, and then the issue is can this trade deal be done faster with such large trade deal be done faster than such large and come pick straight deals have been done before . Without much goodwill, it may take longer, and i expect the markets will make it over this period of volatility knowing there will be more in the future. To that point, sterling will go so far, but maybe not further because the risks still exist, dont they . What would it take to return to where we were prereferendum . What would it take to get us back up to those kind of levels . [laughter] stephen you want the pot of gold. Thats what youre looking for. You either take the view which i have done cautiously that the world has changed since 20152016, or you take the view that things will go back to where they were in 20152016. I would say we are still in the former cant. The world has changed. We are moving in a different direction. There is political fragmentation, trade fragmentation. I dont really like this term, but deglobalization. It is happening. Theres evidence of it. But its true that there are enormous forces pushing back against that movement. I have to say, im more pessimistic. I dont think the state of investors, the psychological state of investors, will get back to a 20152016 level. Guy so the damages pertinent so the damage is permanent . Wouldnt call it damage. I would say defragmentation is a return to localism. Problems need local solutions, and that, to me, is what it a symptom of. So i wouldnt is what brexit, to me, is a symptom of. So i wouldnt necessarily call it damage. But i wouldnt say a reset happens 100 . There are forces pulling both ways in this dynamic. Romaine i want to build on that idea. When you think about the way fx traders and investors have been in the market over the last few years, there are pretty direct correlations between the dollar, the yen, and whatever other Currency Pairs you want to cite. But when you talk about this move to localism that a lot of people seem to be predicting, how does that shift the expectations in the fx market when those correlations arent going to be a strong or apparent as they may have been under a more global system . Stephen i think, just to keep things simple, right now i think you are seeing a risk on dynamic. Treasury yields are climbing. Equities are generally doing ok. The dollar is weaker. Given the political fragmentation, given the trade tension, given the slow growth, high debt problems facing the world economy, on a one to three month basis, you want to look for opportunities to fade the current move that is happening right now. Eventually it will be time to buy dollar again. It will be time to get bullish on treasuries again. It may be u. S. China pushes us there. It may be u. K. Eu. It may be euro zone. I dont know exactly, but these things are real, and going back to 20152016 in terms of the psychology, the general order of things, is a big ask in our opinion. Things have fundamentally shifted. Romaine tony, going back to the vote in the idea that once we get some sort of clarity, it makes u. K. Investment a little bit more attractive than what they have been over the last two and a half to three years, do you think that the stabilization in the u. K. Economy, that that will act as a springboard for some of these domestic stocks that a lot of folks have been looking at . Tony one of the curiosities of the last three years is uncertainty. The way economy hasnt been growing fast as they would have done otherwise the u. K. Economy hasnt been growing fast as they would have done otherwise, but it hasnt been more slowly than others in europe. Although Boris Johnson is seen as a Prime Minister in the u. K. Who voted for brexit, his government is also profree trade, pushing against many of the changes going on in the global economy. Whether it will be that easy when it comes to the implications of all the trade deals feeding back into the u. K. Economy, im not so sure because every trade deal done by the u. K. Will feed back the u. K. Economy in a way that is political because it will change different parts of the economy, different sectors in different ways. So i think that the u. K. Economy when brexit is temporarily sorted, which is what it would be if there was the Withdrawal Agreement, and it moves into a discussedperiod as we earlier, relatively, theres not much trouble on the street in britain. The government is committed to a stable economy. Everything in the garden is perfect, but it could be worse in many ways. And as i say, when some of the uncertainty is removed, you can see why the markets react optimistically. Guy hard to price uncertainty. Much easier to price certainty. Thank you very much indeed, stephen gallo, bmo Capital Markets head of european fx strategy, and tony travers, professor at the London School of economics and political science. Romaine lets get a quick check of the global markets. Abigail doolittle is here with at all. Abigail theres a bit of a risk off tone on this monday. The s p in the u. S. Up 0. 6 percent,. Continuing to weeks of gains. 0. 6 ,oxx 600 up of gains. Two weeks the stoxx 600 up about the same. Lets take a look at the german bund yield, up four basis points, although in deeply negative territory. Not confirming it on the commodities side. Oil is down about 1. 3 . The commodity complex also lower. Sharply lower, boeing. Shares of the airplane maker here in the u. S. , take a look at this, down about 10 over the last two days. At the lows, down 12 , on pace for the worst two days since the 737 maxrts of and what the company knew that continue to surface. Uptop, tech, financials, more than 1 . On the bottom, Consumer Staples and real estate. The tech sector in europe, lets take a look at wirecard and ams. Wirecard is up 7 as the Payments Company has said that kpmg will be doing an independent audit. Round are concerns a their accounting. A double upgrade at bank of America Merrill lynch to a buy, analysts saying that underlying Business Trends look positive. Guy abigail, thank you very much indeed. Remember the function gtv on your bloomberg. This allows you to browse all of the charts featured on bloomberg television, checkup on the analysis and sees your favorites and save your favorites. Gtv. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Romaine from new york, im romaine bostick. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word. Here with Maurice Courtney donohoe. Here with more is cory donahoe. Is courtney donohoe. Inrtney major drugmakers avoids. Have settled to facing trial. Canadian Prime Minister justin set to retain a majority inhout parliament. The president of chile has a stark message, that the country is at war, and called on people to choose sides. Chiles copper union has called for strikes. At least eight people have been killed in santiago. The violence was triggered by higher public transport fares. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Guy thank you very much indeed. Still ahead, more insight on brexit and the Prime Ministers brexit deal. Is it a good deal . Adam marshall, director of the British Chambers of commerce, will give his perspective. This is bloomberg. Romaine guy from london, im guy johnson. Romaine from new york, im romaine bostick. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Its time for a Bloomberg Business flash. Netflix selling about 2 billion of bonds to beef up its original content. Featuring giant reported earnings that beat estimates, soothing investor concerns. Netflix is facing growing competition from disney, apple. Saks fifth avenue has agreed to but public. Will tryay attendant reinvigorating. They have been will try its hand at reinvigorating. Been halliburton said that overall revenue in the said that overall revenue in the most recent quarter fell 10 , worse than expected. That is your business flash update. Lets get a quick check of what is going on here in the u. S. Markets. The s p 500 Still Holding around that 3000 level. The Dow Jones Industrial average also participating a little, but way down by the weight of boeing but weighed down by the weight of boeing. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index up more than 1. 6 . The vix at 14. Guy we are counting it down to the european close. This is what the majors look like. Ftse 100, u. K. Assets are in wait and see mode right now. We traded at 1. 30 on the cable rate. Legislation will be introduced tonight on the brexit deal. We vote on it tomorrow. The dax up pretty strongly around 1 . Stocks like wirecard having a good day today. Deutsche bank also solid today. In europe, it is the defensive names being sold, the more cyclical names being bought. This market has a more prorisk feel to it despite not great numbers on the upside. 30 seconds to go for until the end of trading. The dax has been outperforming a little bit today. Elsewhere, european markets fairly flat. From a structural point of view, we have seen much more risk on bias within the market. Within u. K. Assets, particularly the british pound, as you can see we moved up through 130 earlier on in the day after feigning last night, after it became clear over the weekend that Boris Johnson would not get his deal over the line over the weekend. We see, basically, u. K. Assets moving sideways as a result of that. Get anotherouldnt meaningful vote until tomorrow. We will have to wait until tomorrow to get a meaningful look at the withdrawal bill. The pound is absolutely flat. 1 . Ftse 100, up 6 10 of the dax, the real outperform her. Bank, weou deutsche will break that down in a moment. Outperformer. Sure you deutsche bank, we will break that down in a moment. Sectors, allar doing well. These are the kinds of cyclical stocks that will be eaten up of late. Tanks in particular are a real proxy for risk off risk on trade. Bottom end of the market, you are seeing some of the big names like nestles under real estate. And you have had a freeze in germany and berlin. Food and Beverage Health care, bond proxy health care, not by much, but little it, an indication that market is feeling a bit more positive about the trajectory from here today. When it comes to the individual names, its an individual story worth focusing on. Deutsche bank, up from the getgo thi