You have under armour coming in down by 1 . Founder is actually stepping aside as head of the company. Started in his grandmothers basement. Willnder armour president become the chief executive officer on january 1. Theres a huge restructuring that planck has been under over the last few years and this is really a change in strategy. Looking for distribution and longterm growth strategy. Kevin plank stepping aside after 23 years at the helm. Procter gamble beating and raising. Ups also coming in a little bit stronger here. Its earnings view as well. Crushes it on earnings and revenue. Solid numbers. Ly we were worried everything was going to be terrible. Bloombergo will be on balance of power. Time for Global Exchange where we bring you todays market moving news from all over the from london to zurich, toronto and new york. We want to kick it off in london where Orest Johnson will find out this evening whether he has any chance of getting his deal through parliament. Juncker told the Eu Parliament theyve done all in their power to ensure an orderly brexit. In truth it has to spend so much of this mandate dealing with brexit when i have thought of nothing less than how this unit could do better for its citizens. Waste of time and waste of energy. Alix walk us through what we are expecting in the next 12 hours and then what. What youve got to watch out for at 7 00 p. M. Local time is the vote on the second reading. Its the first chance for mps to vote on the implementation bill that would enact Boris Johnsons brexit plan and then crucially program notion. This sets out the timetable because the key issue is the government wants to get this through very quickly. Three days to scrutinize a lot of legislation. Theres been a lot of anger over that limited time to get through these very complicated issues that are going to set a precedent here in the u. K. We could expect mps to vote that down for it to take longer. That would make it difficult to deliver by october 31. Critical day for Boris Johnson. Ubs Wealth Management assets reaching a record high with rich clients adding nearly 16 billion in the quarter. Still very Challenging Market conditions but im glad we were able to bring a solid performance in this difficult context. Zurichoining me now from s patrick winters. What have we learned from ubs . I would say its a minor wind for ubs today. Wealth Management Unit better than expected. The Investment Bank was once again a bit of a disappointment. Because the trading businesses underperformed. Job in theed to cut Investment Bank. Its not quite the same level as a socgen or deutsche bank. There will be a 100 million charge in the Fourth Quarter later to that. Ubs hasr news is that from crediter suisse. Hes being tasked with a review of Wealth Management and im sure there will be some news to come after that. Turn now to to canada where Justin Trudeau has won a second term but lost a majority in parliament in the popular vote. Who voted for our party, thank you for putting your trust in our team. Usnk you for having faith in to move this country in the right direction. Alix Jon Erlichman joins us from toronto. Now what happens to Justin Trudeau . Its anyones guess at this point. You are right Justin Trudeau and the liberals wake up back in power. But there were casualties in last nights election. Like his father before him he begins his second term as Prime Minister with a minority a lotment we know he has of fans on the global stage the last four years. Ofers in canada grew tired ethical scandals and broken promises and he saw that play out in the vote last night. While the liberals were very toronto, ontario and the oilrich providence province which has been hardhit, we saw a landslide for the conservatives. We saw a resurgence for the left for dead block can require quebecois. Its up to him to find some friends in parliament. The athletes could be the ndp and the block. Alix thank you, Jon Erlichman. We are getting a slew of earnings this morning. When he five Companies Reporting 25 Companies Reporting. We have biogen through the roof right now. They are seeking fda approval for an early alzheimers Harley Davidson also beat estimates. You can watch the s p futures right now on the news turning positive slightly. Wex heres another story are watching. Softbank has offered to take a majority stake in troubled startup we work. Thats a fall from the 47 billion valuation we work obtained from softbank just last january. J. P. Morgan is offering another rescue plan that involves junk debt. Jetblue also in the spotlight here. These earnings are good unless you are hasbro. Are i about 7 beating adjusted earnings as well as operating revenue. Hasbro totally different story. The tariffs actually cut into toy sales. We are waiting for the tariffs to affect the consumer and in terms of hasbro it appears it is finally moving into that sector. Tomorrow on bloomberg daybreak americas, im going to speak to the jetblue ceo. We will have more on your morning Trend Analysis in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Alix we are giving you the news to get the trade analysis of the markets. Joining us is vincent cignarella. Gina martin adams and also with us on set, mattie desk there. And iy i start on brexit turn to this. Im not going to do that this time because earnings are actually really good. There are beats and raises happening. What is this . Pretty good start. Im not going to count my chickens before they hatch. We are still less than a quarter of the market cap reported. Today we have a few raises to expectations. Alix especially we were assuming we were going to see downgrades. The ones we are getting, the transportation. Nobody would have thought that was coming. Do have to acknowledge his expectations were very low here. Huge not expecting a bounce back into 2020 for some orientedternationally lt nationals. Actually a very positive sign but also we want to pitch our commentary. If we get a widespread swath of grades and its a very strong signal. Is one or two organizations so far. Many people are commenting and suggesting we are going to get this massive downdraft and expectations. This looks nothing like 2018. We are not seeing enemy earnings strings so far. I agree. Thats why the market is reacting so positively. Weve had such dour expectations. 200 billion out of these. Fixed income. Nto investors have really ratcheted down expectation. If we see some quieting in the trade negotiation be we are looking for better earnings for 2020. Im curious about the hasbro earnings. I thought moving the tariffs out supposed to help consumer and it seems to have helped hasbro earlier than we expected. Alix they say the threat of enactment of tariffs the threat in an and. I had the same question. There is a trade to be made and we talked about this two weeks ago. The expectations for the consumer are the one over bloated probably positive segment of the general outlook. Andyone piled into consumer not thatades hasbro is the poster child for consumer. I think one of the risks you watch for in this earnings the earnings outlook are high relative to the rest of the index. Nobody wants to touch all the industrial oriented cycle stuff. Theyve piled into things they think are safe and what they think is safe is the u. S. Consumer. We started to see evidence that maybe the u. S. Consumer isnt completely bulletproof. Leg tond of the last fall. Its very positive where you start to see rotation out of the defensive plays. The consumer has a last leg in the sense we are seeing Mortgage Rates fall. Consumers will start to see more equity in their home. Those are the consumers that have a lower marginal propensity. We do see that with the homebuilders. Them beatrting to see expectations. You would normally see that rotation. Everybodys going to buy toys in the recession. Versus the housing market. Those toys cost more . Is this the beginning . The numbers weve seen from real average earnings are lower disposable income and thats the sector of the Consumer Market that spends and props up the consumer. If we continue to see higher inflation of his or lower earnings numbers and the earnings continue to shrink that undermines that leg of the Consumer Sector supposedly Holding Things up. Are we really looking at higher costs here . One of the things we have started to notice is stronger pmis out of Southeast Asia away from china. Companies are starting to shift their supply chains which means maybe we dont have to make everything in china. We can make things in malaysia and taiwan and indonesia and other places and keep their costs as low as they have it in the past and we dont impact the consumer with higher prices from imported goods. Alix i like that you brought up moving your supply chain. Theres a great article that says lower rates dont help you move your supply chain. Youre going to have the fed cutting, the ecb this week. Go ahead and cut but thats not going to help you move to malaysia. It apparently does. If the costs are lower you can facilitate that move through lower financing costs if costs were higher and you had to pay more to borrow debt to get that cash on the books, it would be somewhat restrictive. It is inherently supportive when rates are lower. That makes your cost structure lower which is going to help. It doesnt create the movement, but it does help fund the movement. Shortterm so to move from one place to the next is just when the rent is due. You carry on and move somewhere else. Exit i have to bring up because we have to. You come in. Youre a traitor. What are you thinking . There are basically two votes. The first one is a binary outcome. Do you favor the bill or not. It should be the only vote but of course politicians, it wont be. That vote fails then came over. There is no other vote. Exit is done. Expected, youve got to watch the optimism because you are going to get the second vote of the timetable of when this happens. Very difficult to get this through in three days. If you get amendments attached to the bill in the likes of looking for a second referendum, who probably it wont even be voted on. Boris johnson who probably he wont even be voted on. Alix im already exhausted. I get that a lot alix hope we Start Talking about is what is the new trade deal going to look like . At the end of the day you need some clarity. Investors need to know those kind of things. You are right on needing the clarity. It doesnt make sense to try to catch a falling knife. Not ale trades up thats great thing for the expert oriented equity markets. We are thinking about do you dive into u. K. Equity or wait until you have more consistency and assurances that you know where things are headed as opposed to deciding now that now is the time to jump in. We just dont think were there yet. Game. Hink its a latency the thing i worry about with trade is theres two real stories going on here. Policy and tariffs specifically over a broad array of goods and then theres tech and whos going to be the ultimate leader in technology. Are we going to have two worlds of Technology Develop in east versus west technology and this is a big story for the tech sector specifically which is still the biggest market sector in the s p 500. Very weak 2019. Even if you get a modest trade deal related to agriculture, you still have this weight of uncertainty with respect to tech. Much a latency kind of phenomenon. Probably do have to see a migration of supply chains to other parts of the world. You have to see summary on onring some re shoring. Alix they have a huge position that got completely decimated after the primaries in august. It does go to show that what we thought was going to be an interesting trade in emerging markets like a year ago is that it is indeed not true. Argentina, the strikes in chile. 100 year bonds in argentina, what could go wrong with that . Alix people are buying it. There are a couple deals coming up that could add a lot of uncertainty. Plans to give a speech on china. The last time, fire and brimstone. The wheels fell off everything. Just an announcement of the speech so the markets pullback. We have the senate and the house against china in favor of the hong kong demonstrators. Not likely to be taken well by beijing. Those three instances could totally undermine all of the positive risk. I dont think he cares about emerging markets. Thanks for the conversation. You can find all the charts we use and more on g tv. This is bloomberg. Youre watching bloomberg daybreak. Under armour founder kevin plank is stepping aside as ceo. Hes promoting the executive brought in during a painful restructuring. Executive become chairman. In 1995 he started the Athletic Apparel company and his grandmothers basement. A new analysis of data from failed Clinical Trials showing promising results. Citingk and amazon federal lobbying records. They are responding to more businessto their practices. Amazon spending 4 million. Its the most a company has ever spent in a single quarter on lobbying. Alix heres another sector worth watching. American homebuilder stocks havent been this high since 2006 and we all know what happened not long after that. The story oflls the housing bubble burst. It took years for the markets to recover. Boom has beensing driven by low Interest Rates, not how has high house prices. Bottom line for him is there are reasons to worry about the economy but u. S. Housing isnt one of them. People kind of buy into the stocks that were unloved for a while. The ubs ceo warns of a challenging environment for european banks. Ahead of Mario Draghis last meeting at ecb as ecb president we will see even more rate cuts. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. Im alix steel. We have earnings coming in and a lot of them are better than expected. Not just in terms of earnings beats but in terms of actual revenue guidance. Look no further than United Technologies and Procter Gamble. In europe, Technology Sector doing one of the outperformance. Also in other Asset Classes the story is that you had the pboc injecting 250 billion yuan into the system. We get a sizable auction today. We have seen a substantial rise in rates. We have Lockheed Martin also coming out and talking about raising guidance. On theull net sales highend. Thats coming more than they had seen before by about 2 billion. Their net sales also wound up beating estimates and their earnings for the full year will also be higher than estimated. They are taking a look at the stock in premarket. The beat no surprise after companies their outlook for the Third Quarter. Ubs shares are rising in european trading. Investment banking revenue disappointed. Sergio ermotti blames conditions. Market very Challenging Market conditions. Im glad we were able to bring a solid performance in this difficult context. In terms of the Investment Bank you announced a restructuring. What does that mean . The last conditions in few quarters have been very challenging. The marketey are not conditions also favoring our strategic choices. We are much more skewed towards europe and asia and this is still a business where the u. S. Is dominating both in terms of calendar, Business Activity and Client Sentiment is a little bit better than outside u. S. What cost savings will you get and is it going to mean job losses . I think we expect in the 19 million a year and i think its going to give us an opportunity to refocus our activities for example in the markets business we will really focus on our execution and structuring and financing businesses. Leveraging all the Technology Investments we made in the last few years. Onbanking we will focus fewer industries and more on a global basis than a regional basis. Alix that was ubs ceo sergio ermotti. What do you think about european banks . Right now we think europe is challenging. Gdp is coming from export oriented economies so investing right now given the trade issues and the global slowdown in the economy, we would much rather focus on u. S. Securities as well as emerging markets which we think potentially could have some upside. Emergingre are markets . Southeast asia is an area we could see some lift given shifting supply chains away from china towards areas like malaysia, taiwan, indonesia. Areas where we could see some benefit from the trade negotiations impacting china. Alix the curve is getting steeper and i say that because 31 basis points is steeper. Off the lows of yields, at what point do you have to get interested . We are off the lows but the ecb is back in the market. You are going to see some of the anchor on the long end of the yield curve. We are now in a negative net supply situation. While we think the curve could steepen a little bit its not going to be a significant as it needs to be to help the Net Interest Margin lenders that we see in european banks. We would prefer to stay away from that for now. We dont think its going to provide as much of a lift given that we see an overall slowing in the manufacturing economy. You are not going to be able to stimulate something slowing as europe is. Alix part of the conversation was fiscal stimulus and germany feeling like they were doing something. Talked aboutian recession indicators for germany. Im not sure the Global Economy