Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

We are going to start with the u. S. Reducing Interest Rates by a quarter of a percent. However, jay powell signaled a economiccuts and the outlook materially changes. Treasuries weakened on the announcement while stocks and gains showed gains. [indiscernible] a strong labor market. The latest on brexit, four shots and squared off with Jeremy Corbyn in their first parliamentary clash of the election campaign. Johnson said corbyn would deliver an economic catastrophe for britain and that the second aexit referendum should be glorious year in 2020. , the time for protest is over mr. Speaker, it is time for leadership and that is what the government provides. Hope for a u. S. China trade doubtse in downs and in doubt. The white house says it will continue to finalize the phase one deal in the coming weeks. Apex organizers say they have no claim to withhold it elsewhere at this point and chili also canceled the yuan Climate Conference scheduled for december. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and at tictoc on twitter, in more than 120 countries. Im su keenan, this is bloomberg. Lets look more at top stories. What start off with what we have with those pmi numbers out of china. I think the economy is in need for a trade from the policymakers. But the the trade war, tech war. Policymakers will need more support and this is one of the reason china gets an interim trade agreement. Pressure off the economy, but certainly not the relief we are seeing. Lets move beyond the seasonal factors to the underlying trends. And we see the pressure on the ppi side which is diminishing corporate profits , so when you take it all outlook, the broader for the manufacturing side, still pretty weak. Absolutely and it being a function of what is really going avoid. Cant really the pressure is on for the pboc to do more and you have one eye on the fed no doubt. They have been quite restrained. They have been using the easing mode and expecting a more nuanced approach. Of rate, the fact that he has and its expectations is not rushed. I think they are probably in a comfortable position, but also have a Circuit Breaker for trade talks, but then we might see the pboc having to do a lot of works. Joining us now, we have hannah anderson. You come in and they cut has been made. Is there a debate going on. Is there a hawkish cut or not so hawkish cut . In its essence, i think it cut is a cut. You have a fed that judge the economy as needing more and so they cut rates. Is the tone ofh the statement and the press conference, not so much the policy and decision because markets as they do are looking ahead. The fed is done with the easing and pricing in a rate cut for 2020. What are you looking out for . I think it will depend on what the data does between now and december, not to return to the old faithful, but the fed has to be independent, especially month to month and a late cycle environment where the fluctuation in data is larger than other points in the cycle. Look back at the gdp numbers, it is telling the fed that in the torah bills or stronger and the torah bills were stronger inventory bills were stronger. Going forward, the fed will be looking at all the indicators theyhave to decide whether need to shift their messaging, but right now, the fed is probably on hold for december and then we will see. Say while Monetary Policy is in place, theres plenty left. I think what chair powell is looking for is trying to engineer modest growth in the economy. They wont dont want to be making headlines. But, especially as we head into next year which is an election year. I think they are just hoping that some of the headlines that suchcaused the assessment as trade, that is the big one. I think the fed is hoping some of those headlines go away and they can remain on pause throughout next year. What about liquid management facilities . Really give us much more additional color besides the statements they had already made. The fed has started to increase the size of the Balance Sheet in the market, so treasury stated one year or less. That is not the same thing as kiwi which the fed has been overeager to emphasize. Theyre just trying to manage liquidity given the volatility we have seen over the past year. See u. S. Banks shore up their Balance Sheet and by doing that, probably suck some liquidity out of the system. That is what im trying to get at and you can see Solid Earnings across the board, perhaps missing something in the distance. I think it is an increased exit section expectation for a downturn, but data is weakening. I dont think we are seeing a recession next year, but growth will continue to be week. For all companies, theres going to be a higher degree of for a lot ofnd corporations, they need to manage their reserves and so that is something the fed is looking at. Build to seeing perhaps look in that direction next year. Other conventional policies as central bank. Bal order you anticipating . I think we will see greater liquidity, particularly from the ecb. I think they will keep continuing down that path and anyone what happens with european data, they do have to respond to conditions on the ground. If pmis keep coming , it is goingweak to be a question of how much. Dditional stimulus is needed i just there is only limited wiggle room now and more needs to be done by the federal government. Do you believe that more should be done or are we all right in where we are . I think something you saw global policymakers [indiscernible] with. Thehere is a need for fiscal lever to be pulled top wishing it doesnt necessarily make it so, but i do think there may be an increased willingness in the u. S. To look at the fiscal lever. We do have a budget that needs to be passed before the end of the year. Whether there is the political will to do so is the question. Us. Annah, police say with still ahead, rogers waiting and anticipated decision from the bank of japan. At hong kongs gdp numbers for [indiscernible] \ this is bloomberg. And wrapping up some the big tech earnings, samsung beating results, solid demand for smartphone displays. Meanwhile, two titans of the u. S. , apple and facebook also beating quarterly earnings. Management asset Global Market strategist. Some solid results from apple as well as diane swonk. What is your take on how tech earnings have come out so far . You would make we were seeing [indiscernible] between hardware of between hardware out hardware and software. Is largedly speaking global tech behemoths that we all watch are seeing some of the same Global Conditions we are talking about which is slightly weakening demand. They have to contend with a very high u. S. Dollar and on top of that, they have all this Political Risk that has politicized consumer buying decisions. The pressure on the back of the feds decision and also seeing signs on the greenback. The dollar is still quite elevated and will remain so for the rest of the year. Theres a lot of reasons that the dollar should be substantially cheaper. However, that has not influence andprice in the near term investors keep putting money in the u. S. , but as webrexit approach the end game for some and we havetors , the next war soon worry will be phase two, maybe pays three. I would say it is included in a near term deal which will keep the u. S. And china at longer heads so to speak. Very long time to agree to a change or if they are going to agree to a change, it takes a long time to see those changes come through and the way , at these economies behave key consideration for both sides when it comes to negotiating a trade deal. Briefly on what is happening this year, i would not get too excited as an investor about a phase one deal. Of other political noise to contend with and when it comes to the rumors being ,ccluded in this phase one deal it is more like phase one a deal. That does not seem like policymakers on both sides are making too much progress. China dealing with its own challenges at home, indicating that they spoke earlier of needing to pull that earlier. China has been polling on the fiscal lever all year. They have uplifted in their Economic Cycle rather than relying on a monetary level. They do have a lot of concerns about the level of debt in their monetary system, so trying to moreaway seems to be a financially stable way. However, given the continued weakness we have seen, certainly going to be an ongoing discussion on chinese policymakers and i would think given the reaction we have seen on the bond market, i think authorities are probably going to be a little more generous on the monetary side the may have more operations, but they are not stepping off the fiscal lever. Great to see you. Up, Sheryl Sandberg telling exclusive how Third Quarter be the regulatory challenges beat the regulatory challenges. This is bloomberg. Facebook shares on the up a good report here in sales that the estimates, but there are clouds hanging over the company over the companys decision not to block political ads. We asked facebooks zero schaumburg to explain in an interview. Were not doing it because of the money. Believe inaid is we Free Expression, political speech and ads can be an important part of that. What we are focused on is on transparency will stop would put out an ad library and you can see any ads that anyone is if it is not targeted at you and that kind of transparency is really important to people understanding. You also talks about investing in protection. One of the things we talked about is the size of the investments we are making. Hiring engineers, using machines, using human reviewers doing what we can to make sure people are kept safe. When twitter decides to go to the opposite direction, does that make you question your decision . Callrquess said on the that we thought about this for years and certainly we are thinking about it now and we fundamentally believe that political ads arent political ads arent important of the dialogue, but we also believe that Free Expression across the board is something that we stand for as a company and people all of the world are using that. Certainly politicians are using that, the but people are using it in that is how you see our growth continuing. Talk ofu worry about the Business Model being under attack . How do you see your role in educating those on capitol hill about this . Understandwe have to that targeted ads and privacy are not at odds, we can do both. If you are an advertiser whether you are the Biggest Company or the smallest company, we have 7 million advertisers and you want to show an ad to women in their 50s who live in california, we take the ad, show it to that person and give you aggravated results. Aggregated results. That is something i think we need to do a much better job of explaining. Sheryl sandberg, the latest business flash headlines. Theckerbergs facebook ceo told investors that instagram was not a true competitor and has only grown because of the social media giant. The u. S. Federal trade commission is investigating whether facebook has violated antitrust laws. Twitter is blocking all political ads. Saying it is about beingates paying not free expressly. Apple has predicted a revenue that the analyst estimates, signaling solid demand for iphone 11 models as well as services and levels. Suffering something ceo softbank ceo spoke at an event in saudi. Saudi arabia contributed 45 billion to the first fund, but did not anything to the second. Into the lunch break, some of the key movers. Sony nearly 3. 4 and the company billion. 200 demand a camera such a and you can see what is happening at the global economy. Many people thought they would be a downgrade coming, but things are expecting growth now and one of the biggest in asia pacific index fully operating which is really much worse than the average estimate. Advertising and gave businesses contributing to profit, but not as much as analysts had been expecting. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. 10 29 a. M. In hong kong. We begin with the u. S. Justice department, who has struck a record deal with fugitive to recoupjho low almost 1 billion from 1mdb. Prosecutors allege that low orchestrated the thefts to pay for jets, cypriots, mansions, and financing movies. Mansions,uperyachts, and financing movies. In israel, a panel to monitor Foreign Investments after pressure to scrutinize inflows from china. Comes after Prime Minister benjamin yahoo met with Benjamin Netanyahu met with stephen mnuchin. It could jeopardize intelligence sharing agreements with washington. Bloomberg sources say the board of french carmaker psa group has approved a merger with fiat chrysler. The tie up would create one of the Worlds Largest manufacturers. The combined entity would be split equally. Investors would get a 6 billion dividend with psa distributing a 3 billion euros stake to its own shareholders. To northern california, more than 350,000 pg e customers are still without power in california as strong winds fan more fires. The National Weather Service Calls an extreme morning for much of the southern half of the state put in place through thursday evening. 130s have reached kilometers per hour. At least 10 large wildfires are burning across the state, but easeinds are expected to over the weekend. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im su keenan. This is bloomberg. Now checking in on what is going on with a chinese telco space. Carriers today debuted five g mobile phone services, china mobile the biggest of the three. They unveiled it in 50 cities including beijing, shanghai, and shenzhen. China unicom and introducing services at comparable rates. Certainly something to watch for as that rollout is for hundreds of millions of users across the mainland. 850 news subscribers, you just have to question what their Customer Service is like. The other big event of the day, the bank of japan, we look at the yen, at the moment, just a tad stronger against the dollar. Lets get over to what is likely to happen in tokyo. The man on the spot is stephen engle. What are we looking out for . Ephen we are waiting of course for the boj Rate Decision later today. Most economists saying it is not going to happen. The fed overnight did cut rates. It was a hawkish cut. Eventokyo cut rates further. Lets get to our guest, ed rogers, ceo of his namesake advisory body. So, why are we here talking about something that is not going to happen . Is anything going to happen . Are they going to change the verbiage . There is always a strong element of uncertain t1 the great and good get together for a decisionmaking process. We dont think much will change. How things will change not for the future today but how things change going forward. Stephen did jay powell give kuroda a gift with less of a hawkish cut . This think the backdrop to is the u. S. Japan trade discussions, of course the u. S. China trade discussions. I think the fed move reflects certain domestic issues, things you might argue are a little bit better here. There is less reason to move. That symbiosis between the u. S. And japanese policies will continue. Stephen what is the situation here in japan . We have a week external demand situation, whether it is the u. S. China trade war, but domestic demand seems to be holding up. Is that temporary . No specific trade war issue that is affecting for example the u. S. China trade dispute is affecting certain sectors of the american economy. Here in japan, the sectors affected are different. Shortage in a labor hospitality, the trucking industry. Those are really immigration related issues, not Interest Rate related issues. Affect the real economy, really there is no push for that. Relieftrying to provide for different sex errors that are under duress. Isphen why do you think it imperative, some say, for kuroda to say he has the will to ease if the conditions deteriorate to that point . Ed part of that is a creation of folks in the media who have to constantly ask for them to be prepared. They are constantly asked, are you ready to take the next step, do you have more ammunition if needed . Is the political will for this still there . He gets these questions publicly and privately and he needs to indicate the confidence to the world, yes, we are staying the course. They have for years done exactly what they said they would do and have pursued a specific agenda that is a political and economic combined agenda. Stephen what are the risks if he goes further down the negative rates round . Ed we know what the consequences are. Japanese regional banks are suffering. If you now have negative Interest Rates and nobody can borrow money, it is a real problem. That would be regionalized. That would not affect tokyo 25ish percent of the national gdp. There are certain implications if they go that route. It is a tool and they have proven they are willing to use that tool if needed. Thehen do you think once stimulus measures start to wither away . Ed i think the most likely response would be a further Government Spending program, a little bit more of a traditional japanese response than Interest Rate movements. A couple of big typhoons, really nasty weather. Andthe Environmental Impact the impact on economic structures is real here. There has been death, massive destruction. Are we getting used to this is a new norm because of Global Weather patterns changing and how do you have to respond that financially . Stephen think the yen could go much weaker . Your. S. Me for, what is off the run commentary . I can see a variety of situations where the u. S. Dollar gets stronger across the board and japan, maybe we see move to 115

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