We are going to bring you todays market moving news from all around the world. Our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this mornings top stories. We are going to start with the latest in asia, where chinese officials concluded the biggest meeting of the year in china. The gathering of the communist Partys Central Committee focused on the economy and hong kong protests. Going me is and occur in joining me is enda curran. What did we learn . ,nda it was a fourday closeddoor meeting. They spoke mostly about rising domestic and international risks, and of course, the backed up domestically being the slowing economy, unrest in hong kong, and internationally, trade war with the u. S. We didnt get any Major Economic initiatives out of it, but we did get some signals that it is doubling down on party control, and ensuring much stricter oversight of hong kong. There was no sense of compromise when it comes to dealing with protesters. Alix thank you so much. Now we went to head to germany, where Christine Lagarde begins her term as ecb president , becoming the institutions first female head. She will face a host of challenges as the regions economy slows, not least skepticism over negative rates. That first day checking out for Christine Lagarde . Reporter it is a little pentacle mektic it is a little anticlimactic since lagardes first day is a holiday. We are certainly expecting a lot from her as she starts her term. We are expecting a Strategic Review of the policy, and for her to be far more in the spotlight. We are expecting her to take on a Communication Style effort to her predecessor, mr. Mario draghi. We are also expecting her to amend some of the risks that have emerged within the ecb septembers contentious decision to add stimulus, so theres a lot to look for there. Alix thank you very much. We turn now to retail. Jcpenney is one step further along the comeback road. The retailer is unveiling a store to test ideas before rolling them out across its 850 store fleet. The new ceo gave her first broadcast entry exclusively to bloombergs emma chandra. It has been an interesting decade at jcpenney. As ive been very overt on my earnings calls, theres been a lot of fundamental problems to fix. We are marching down that path, but at the same time, we are running a parallel path of transformation and innovation because we know we have to be more than just a department store. Know emma chandra joins me from london. What was your big take away from the interview . Emma you heard jill soltau really acknowledging the problems that jcpenney has faced over the past years. Stock performance is down 90 since its 2012 hi, currently trading at about one dollar a share. Theyve also cycled through a number of ceos. She is really saying it is her comeback plan that is going to work. She spent the last year overhauling her leadership team, talking to customers, gathering data. What she said is this new brand defining store, the fullest expression of what a Jcpenney Department store could be much should really resonate with consumers. They are going to use it to test ideas. Willhings that work rollout across its 850 stores. There are some concerns because that costs money. How would they finance a big overhaul of all of its stores . A number of analysts i have been talking to question whether or not jcpenney needs quite so many stores in the first place. While this is very interesting along its comeback road, its going to be interesting to see how this will play out over the coming year. Alix thank you very much. In the u. S. , investors focusing on the latest jobs report. Analysts are expecting a decline of 85,000, sequentially coming down. Joining me for more is Michael Mckee. What can we expect . Michael it is a report of superlatives, but probably not a superlative report. The 85,000 number, the lowest forecast since 2012. Its because of the gm strike. 46,000 workers outcome of the most since 1970. The chartern communications strike and any suppliers, you probably see 55,000 manufacturing jobs lost, the most in a decade. It leaves us with very little, but if you add back in almost 55,000, you end up with 140,000, barely above last months 136,000. Is it supplied, or is it demand . Are companies no longer meeting to add a lot of workers, or can they not find workers . We will get some clues in the other numbers today. Unemployment is supposed to barely change, may be tick up. We will also be watching hourly wages, may be distorted by gm after a flat reading last month. It is expected to rise by about 0. 3 . Ed. Course, watch hours work if companies are really cutting therethey will go first. Ism is coming up this morning. We havent had three months in contraction in that number in quite some time, so if that happens, that is something to keep an eye on. Bottom line, we get ism in payrolls again before the next fed meeting, so probably not a lot of Monetary Policy applications today. Alix appreciate that. Finally, the impeachment process took a step forward yesterday. U. S. Lawmakers voted to move to the public phase of the inquiry targeting President Trump, putting him on the path towards coming only the third president to be impeached. Rep. Pelosi when we have a president who says article two says i can do anything i want, that is in defiance of the separation of powers. That is not what our constitution says. So what does it state . What are we fighting for . Defending our democracy for the people. Alix joining me from the white house is kevin cirilli. Now what does the white house do, and what does the house do . Kevin its business as usual for President Trump. My sources tell me they still largely view this as a political matter. Theyve also used it as a fundraising effort to hopefully rally their base. The next step in this process for democrats are to continue as usual with the private, behind close door testimony from officials, but now the opportunity for several of those committees is to hold public hearings. I spoke with several who said they would like to see the transcripts released with regards to those closeddoor hearings. The time on of this still very much remains in flux. There are some sources who tell me they still anticipate this to be wrapped up by the end of the calendar year, but other democrats were openly worrying now that this could drag on into next calendar year, and that would pose significant risks for political contenders in the 2020 president ial race. Alix thank you very much. In other news im watching, President Trump is warning british Prime MinisterBoris Johnson on trade. He says it will make it difficult for the u. K. To strike a deal with the u. S. He spoke to brexit leader nigel farage on radio. Pres. Trump i know that you and him will end up doing something that is terrific. If you and he get together, that is an unstoppable force. Corbyn would be so bad for your country. He would take you in such a bad way. He would take you into such bad places. Alix Jeremy Corbyn didnt take that very well. We have some breaking news from goldman sachs. The bank is raising its reasonably possible legal losses to 2. 9 billion. That changes from the second quarter, where legal losses were about 2. 6 billion, so putting more money away for those legal losses now, almost 3 billion. That stock is unchanged in premarket. Also, alibaba earnings are out right now. In terms of earnings, it looks like a really big beat, coming yuan. 0 also taking a look at revenues, coming in about 119 billion yuan, plus mobile monthly active users trumping estimates, coming in at 785 million. That stock, watch that into the open as well. Coming up on this program, much more on your morning trade and analysis of the markets in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Happy friday, everybody. [laughter] alix oh boy. We are getting kind of rowdy here. We are joined by our inhouse team of wall street veterans and experts. Carl riccadonna, vincent cignarella, and with us is Lauren Goodwin, new york like investment new york life investment economist and multiasset portfolio strategist. . Hat is your call carl were looking for a weaker than expected print. If you really want to get some sense of the underlying momentum in the data, you have to look at private Service Sector hiring, which has been running in the vicinity of 120 thousand, down from about 170,000 at the start of the year. Alix what about the ancillary effects of the auto strike . If they are spending less, and that trickles down, how do you read that . Carl there could be a spending impact, but the bigger impact to look for his ripple throughout the supply chain. Effectould be a knock on anywhere upwards to 100,000, potentially. I dont think that is going to be the case, however. I think the effects will be much smaller, and you will see it reflected in the length of the work week rather than actual payrolls. We saw this in the feds beige book, where they highlighted they didnt want to lay off workers because it is too tight of a labor market to easily find replacements. Rather than lay workers off or furlough them, you some lick up the hours worked down to the bare minimum. Vincent i couldnt agree with you more. He was per number on the street is for 100,000, not the 85,000 consensus. That would make the downstream risks even larger. If youre looking at this from a trader perspective, the asymmetric risk is a Downside Risk to this. Gulp you wouldr be swallowing. If youve been there, you know what its like. [laughter] vincent some guys looking for a miss, a print as low as 30,000 coming into this, but the downstream risk, you cant disagree with that. Lauren i hate to agree with everyone. Although you are seeing a little bit of market move towards a more risk on stamps, when it comes to the state of the economy, where we are headed the next 12 or 18 months, this is a slowdown in turn for the employment environment. Nothing to be immediately concerned about, but looking a little more defensive for the mediumterm. Alix what did we all make of the bond rally yesterday . Did that mean anything into the jobs data . Carl it meant something, but not the reflection of the jobs numbers coming up. It was evidence that the trade talks are not moving a favorable direction. We keep calling it phase one. I think we should call it phase 0. 1 based on what is happening here. Little agricultural purchases, no improvement in any other structural issues, so we are not moving in the right direction on this. China is now turning a Cold Shoulder to the talks. Probably, President Trump will retaliate in kind, which is how weve seen this play out in several prior rounds. So we are not removing tariffs as we look at q4 or the 2020 outlook, which means Global Growth continues to grind lower, the u. S. Economy continues to slow, and three is not the magic number for the fed. It will have to have more accommodation come december or q1. Vincent what happened in the bond markets, we are not moving forward in trade talks. We are actually moving backward. We are where we where in may. We are at a stalemate, looking at china may be buying 20 billion in ag products, which is where they have been for years. A huge volume in treasury futures over the last few days. You dont turn the paper over that quickly. Theres not much liquidity. So you go into the futures market to hedge that that. You cover that risk, and then reassess and say, is the trade i have the right way i want to be, or is the futures where i need be . You take your time layering out that fixed income position, and balance it with the futures market. The block trades going through 48 hoursver the next are phenomenal. That speaks to traders turning or hedging the short treasury position they had going into it. Nothing to do with jobs, all to do with trade. Lauren that is exactly why you will see over the next several months probably closer to q1, you will see bond yields, especially in the 10 year part of the curve, start to fall again. As the Global Economy recognizes some of these structural risks, it draws down u. S. Bond yields. Alix theres another theory out i , too, looking at msa looking at ms ci world, that actually outperformed the u. S. Our things performing better elsewhere . Is that a narrative that traders are actually talking about . Vincent no. I think what that was was hope, if you will. People were trying to call the bottom. The dollar is done. Lets get into emerging markets. The trade picture is turning around. If you are in that trade wednesday, thursday you are like, ouch. Ive got to get out of this. Yields. D a low in bond that trade is totally shot. You cant look at that any longer with this new trade scenario. Carl and germany probably in recession, u. K. Probably heading into recession after the brexit occurs, whenever that occurs in the future, based on our teams analysis. Also, china deteriorating, grinding lower and lower in the chinese data, the pmis, the growth statistics that we are clocking the worst growth figures in at least 30 years, towards the end of this year and into next year. Updateshat the imf weeks back. 3 Global Growth is getting close to global stall. Vincent and latin america is starting to fall off as well. Chile, brazil, and mexico. It is not a good Global Growth picture. Lauren it is unusual that im not the bear at the table. [laughter] lauren but its true. Lots of trying to call the bottom, lots of hope for cyclical upside. For us, you want to be flux of. Some of the selling we are doing at the top, we are taking advantage of tactical opportunities. Right now, statistical upside is not here to stay. Alix thank you. And vincentnna cignarella, thank you. Lauren goodman of new york life investment will be sticking with me. Stick around later today for the interview with larry kudlow, the National Economic council director. That is at 9 45 a. M. Eastern time. You can check out the charts used at gtv on your terminal. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. A 2. 7 billiong dollars stake in chineseamerican drug maker that will clear the way for about two dozen cancer drugs to be developed and sold in the chinese market. Percent. L own about Fiat Chrysler and psa turning to small advisory teams. With a french boutique that has only five partners. Sca used goldman sachs. The firms will divide up to 90 million in fees. The worlds biggest maker of insulin raising the lower end of its Sales Forecast. Hitting 1betes drug billion in sales. In the latest quarter, the drug beat analyst estimates. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. On this jobs day, we take a look at hiring and retail in the health of the consumer. The Retail Sector is one of the worst in the labor market. Its seen eight months of job losses. Emma chandra spoke exclusively with jill soltau, jcpenney ceo. Jill the Customer Confidence is in a pretty good place because of low unemployment, increased wages. Theme is reading the retail forecast around holiday being up around 1 to 2 . Similar reasons to believe in that. Emma when you look at the labor market, you are planning to hire more than 30,000 associates. You employee already more than 90,000. We know the labor market is tight. Is this something that is creating competition for you in terms of hiring . Are you seeing pressure to increase wages . Has our Holiday Hiring gone very well. We are ahead of schedule on that. Theres something about the jcpenney brand that when people start interacting with our associates, they feel such pride and excitement from where we are headed. We feel confident that we will be able to continue to serve the customer. Emma you dont feel that you have been held back in anyway way by the tight labor market . That wewould just say are really pleased with how weve been able to attract and care for our associates so we can ensure they are caring for our customers. Emma are you having to offer any additional benefits in order to attract employees at the moment . Jill we have a very competitive forfits package at jcpenney all of our associates based on their role. Any resistance to that. Weve been really pleased with our efforts so far. Alix that was the new jcpenney ceo. Ren goodwin Lauren Goodwin of new york life investment is still with us. Where in retail and Consumer Discretionary would you like right now . Lauren i am not too worried about retail. We got a disappointing sales number in september, and it is pretty broadbased in terms of not just the consumer durables sector, which weve seen weakening for the past several months, but also in some of the extras. Things like hobbies. But in the longterm, what we are seeing is the structural aspects of the retail market, high debt burdens, not really attractive. Alix fair enough. Lauren goodman of new york life investment stays with us. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. It is jobs day, but we are still getting a lot of data coming out. Positive numbers in china talking about the broader, Smaller Company space a be stabilizing. The resource sector in europe moves on that news. In other asset classes, that huge bond rally yesterday now taking a pause. It was the worst months for the dollar index last month since january, 2018, also now taking a pause. Earnings still trickling out. Exxon the latest to come out. Exxon earnings coming in at . 75 a share. That definitely beat estimates. Is up 17 year on year, want 17 on year. I dont necessarily think the market might like that number. Cash discipline has been huge for all oil companies. Downstream earnings were hit, down 25 year on year. That was a real savior for the likes of p, so interesting to see what happens with that. The real conversation that everybody cares about is going to be what they are going to do about their dividends. Still with me is Lauren Goodwin of new york life investment. It doesnt matter how good or shellsr quarter was. It was how