Set for the s p 500. Joe there you go. Caroline abigail, what are you watching . Abigail you know, caroline, across asset classes, the technicals for the s p 500 are fairly constructive. It is worth noting we also have a rally for haven bonds. Take a look at this, the 10year yield shedding 11 basis points on the week. This is the biggest rally for bonds going back to the first year of october. Haven bond rally in, and that has influenced dissector blog competition, putting aside the big rally we saw today for health care, the best sectors, on the week, real estate and utilities, those are of course rate sensitive. Dividends look more attractive. On the flipside side of this, take a look at two of the worst sectors or one of the worst sectors of the week, the financials, and the Kbw Bank Index underperforming, taylor. It will be interesting if that continues this week. And seems as though the defensive sectors are actually doing quite well. Taylor well, abigail, we talked about how the last decade has been the most unloved bull market really going on here. It is interesting because according to a report from Richard Bernstein advisors, they said it is not the case that investors are euphoric on the markets when you include Venture Capital private equity. They take a look at the index inside my terminal, and that is charted in white, relative to the s p 500, which is blue. If you include private equity and Venture Capital and along with stocks, the flurry is in the market, as you can see, that has increased more than a leventhal took the s p 500 started rising back in march of 2019. That is more than twice the s p 500s total return for the period. Some of the private Venture Capital euphoria is back in the market, mike. Euphoria on myt mind as well. The stocks have been grinding higher for a good six weeks now. Today we did under what is officially considered overbought territory, at least until put into a popular momentum indicator known as the 14day relative strength index. High above that official overbought level of 70, not exactly a death knell for the rally. You would expect a lot of technicians, bullish as long as the momentum keep going and that rsi keeps getting higher and high. Periods of the market in 2017, 2018, it stayed above that for extended period, even reached as high as 87 in january 2018. If you look, it has had a hard time staying above that 70 level this year. In fact today, we are about 73, which is the highest it has been since late april, and that is right before a dip of about 7 in the s p 500. Of course there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself, but caroline, it would not be too surprising to see the market sort of take a breather next all of thisdigests momentum that has led up to it. Lisa mike, thank you so much, a lot of people accuse me of looking like scarlet. [laughter] our i want to bring back guests, anthony of a mayor price financial, of Ameriprise Financial, and of course our own cameron crise. Anthony, when do you start selling . I would love to get into the euphoria everyone is talking about. Anthony yeah, i think investors should have a pretty good path to the rest of the year, as long as the fundamental of the macro backdrop does not change a whole lot. I think the markets can grind a lot higher. You guys mentioned rsi. If you look at the advanced line in the s p 500, that has been a good barometer, a good a leading indicator of where prices move for the s p 500. It has generally led market higher when we have been in a downturn, and as the advanced decline line is more high, it is rising more each day than falling, and as it has gotten better in the market, markets have gravitated higher. I think if you see the rally kind of peter out a little bit, more stocks start to decline on a daily basis versus going up, i think you get a little more concerned about this rally. But the fundamental and macro backdrop seem ok for the rest of the year. I think markets will continue to grind a little bit higher for the rest of 2019. Joe there has definitely been this narrative that one thing driving the market higher is dropping the global data, green shoots, whatever you want to call that. The data does not look that great. Cameron no. Joe we got a fleet of data this morning that was not amazing. Global numbers, japan, china, definitely not amazing. Is it at the numbers have gotten ahead of themselves . Is there a disconnect . Or is it thats people were so negative before that mediocre data is enough . Cameron i think over the last three months, you have had yields around the world yeah, they have risen over the last six weeks or whatever, but you compare where we were six months ago, yields are still a heck of a lot lower. In the tactical timeframe, the perception of liquidity and the perception of Interest Rates, yeah, is a primary explanatory variable for the market, and what we are seeing is an extension in the multiple of the market here and elsewhere, because, as you say, growth is pretty mediocre. On the fourth quarter, we are looking at something barely above positive in the united states. Earnings on an economywide level had not really moved in four years, even though for the s p, they are kind of flatlining for the moment. So it is all about the multiple, and the multiple is about Interest Rates and the perception of liquidity. Right now, that looks pretty good. Caroline anthony, not looking only good in the u. S. But potentially around the world. Japan has been on a tear in the last month or so, europe starting to outperform. Where do you see perhaps the money flowing going into the end of 2019, 2020 . Do we finally get a story of International Markets outperforming . Anthony that is exactly what you are seeing right now. You see the breadth and the stoxxipation going across and international investments, europe, japan, and arguably come of those economies are much more sensitive to what is happening in u. S. China trade than the u. S. You see this riskon behavior start to extend to some of those areas like europe, so japan, asia, germany, all of these markets have seen a rebound over recent weeks. I think the fundamental backdrop there is still questionable. You have Monetary Policy extended all the way, as accommodative as can be. You still have slow growth. As long as trade tensions remain unresolved, we are susceptible to these headlines. I think diversification and being in International Markets makes sense right now, but we are still advising our clients to really have a u. S. Tilt in their portfolio toward year end. Lisa cameron, people say you buy plus bypass guidelines. Is that a myth . Cameron it depends on perception. The bank of americamerrill lynch, they suggested that it is substantially reduce the amount of cash that they have got. I think individual investors, if you look into, like, ubs or Asset Managers for High Net Worth individuals, individuals tend to have a lot of cash still, but who is more likely to trade tomorrow . It is the professional investor. From that perspective, there has been quite a bit of deployment into the market. So the marginal punter, as it were, i think has been active in buying into the market. Joe i want to get into trade row quickly. Markets got a bit of a lift on these fresh comments from kudlow, implying that a deal was close. That kind of contradicted some of the headlines we got earlier this week about the stumbling blocks. Why is the market or why does the markets seem to react positively to any comment about a deal being close, when we have gotten comments about deals being close forever . Why is that something that people believe . Or why are people desiring to take that seriously . Anthony we have been here before, right . We have seen comments from mr. Kudlow for the last year, talking about positive aspects of the trade deal. I think from the markets perspective, it does not want to see the december tariffs be put on plays, and it does not want to see the tariffs increase, so any headlines that suggest we are getting a signed phase one deal or we are extending, kicking the can down the road, i think that is a positive for the market. You have already seen investment across businesses decline. Confidence across businesses decline. We are entering 2020. I think, from a perspective of just trade tensions escalate, it gets harder for the u. S. To kind of process that, particularly as we move into an election cycle. I believe that the market is sniffing out a potential phase one deal that does not really do much for the whole trade and Economic Situation between the u. S. And china, but it just delays further tariffs, and i think as long as we can get, then the market will be ok with that. Caroline anthony figurelli, great to have you with us, Ameriprise FinancialGlobal Markets, and cameron crise, great to have you with us. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next, looking at progress between u. S. And china trade talks. This is bloomberg. Talks. This is bloomberg. Caroline live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. Lisa i am lisa abramowicz, and for romaine bostick. Joe and i am joe weisenthal. The question is whatd you miss . Caroline will the Trump Administration signaled toward china, entering key final stages . Retail roundup sales on gains in on automobiles are fewer, but weakness closing on furniture. We will look at the earnings outlook. And a music megastar has some words for the carlyle group. Lisa u. S. Stocks rose to an alltime highs on the day as treasuries as lower. Joining us for more is been eminence and katie, Bloomberg News fx and race reporter. See really interesting to the race upset we are seeing. We are not necessarily seeing the same move in bonds. It seems like their euphoria in stocks is not hitting bond yields. Where do you see that . Ben yes, it is cautioning, lisa. It is now finalized. Guidance about it, and that is probably why the stock market is up so much. It is basically euphoria about it, there is finally an agreement coming in writing, but the bond market is saying two things. One, we have a trade board that refuse to hand over the Global Economy that has really price down inflation, the price index is an example, relate negative inflationary pressure. Then there is caution, well, we have phase one, but what is the next stage of phase two . And will this immediately lead to the discuss relation to the deescalation of the trade war . Joe katie, obviously stocks are at record highs. We are not talking that much about weak data, things like that, but there are some areas of tension. One thing you have been having your eye on, especially over the last few days, is pressure rising for the hong kong dollar. What is going on there . Katherine it is interesting, if you look at the stock market, the hong kong dollar is rally in. If you look under the hood a little bit, you see the spike, which goes to see how the hyper liquidity environment is right now. Not many people want it so long, but a lot of people are trying to find their short position against the hong kong dollar. You typically see a spike toward yearend, but clearly it is higher now, so. There is something going on here. Caroline a liquidity risks, how much is that from and you are paying attention to in the market, ben, and economists talk to this, Deutsche Bank looking at this. How much . Ben it is definitely a risk, and it is a recurrence, a yearly recurrence, and it has to do counterparties. That is happening every year. We have this uncertainty about the phase one deal about hong kong. Those see it in particular markets, foreignexchange markets, weaker markets. It probably means that there is limited liquidity going into year end. The house we will see, not until probably early december, keeping in mind that on december 15, we have these tariffs still, the key tariffs that everyone is concerned about, will there be delays . Lisa all right, this is the really interesting contrast. You see the melt up in stocks, the shift to euphoria, but katie, you bring a good point, people in hong kong are expecting the euphoria to process. Ben, if that doesnt escalate and you get basing intervening in some way pressure, will be because clearly there is a link between the trade deal in the actions of beijing, related to hong kong. We know there is a bill in the senate about prodemocracy in hong kong. We know trump has been out on twitter, monitoring the movement of the hong kong border, etc. , for the markets are focusing on it, and you will get liquidity coming to the markets faster, so, yes, it is a thing to watch. In 2016 whener chinese authorities devalued the yuan. It has been an major Global Markets for a while. Obviously for years, people have unsuccessfully bets on something similar happening to the you hong kong dollar, some sort of depegging. Remove her,as i can people have been unsuccessfully thinking this is going to happen, and they always fail. Would that be a global event that goes beyond an isolated currency bet . Katherine you could also turn back to 2016 for a good example of what that might look like, when the Swiss National bank had strength. Euro fell almost 40 against the swiss bank. Joe that was a crazy day. That was a crazy day. And given how committed the Hong Kong Monetary authority has been to defending this peg, to see them reversed course and let it go or switch their peg to another currency, that would be absolutely huge, and we would really see a lot of peoples money or make money because there are a select few who are betting that will happen. Caroline ben, how are you thinking people are positioned to make money in this current scenario as we are at record highs . We see a base rate for u. S. Treasuries. Ben it is a tough question. It is a nice ride. If you are balanced, say the s p, it works really well. Lisa it works. And for the past 30. [laughs] ben right. A balanced portfolio is good, and it gets you to this environment, but the way to think about it is that phase one represents 60 of the deal, President Trump. If phase one really gets concluded, i think you can start calibrating about, as an investor, what will be the Economic Impact from here as we go into phase two, which will likely include lower tariffs over time . I think that you could adjust your balance portfolio to probably more riskon exposure. I think that is the rate of returns from here. You have to counter the trade affects in the future, so phase one, phase two portfolio, you have to think about two more risk on exposure, if it is successful. Joe all right. Great stuff. Really appreciate your perspective. Ben emmonds of Medley Global Advisors and bloombergs own katie groenefeld. Jcpenney pulling off an earnings lead in the third quarter. We have got your retail roundup next. This is bloomberg. Next. This is bloomberg. Lisa u. S. Resale sales rebound in october, but it is a poor performance overall, even as Jcpenney Stores have a greater outlet. Lets get a retail roundup, from suzanne, joining us from princeton, new jersey. Punam, lets talk about the retail sales we got earlier. Just how disappointing were they . Poonam what we have seen and heard from the retailers is october had a nice pickup, from the cooler temperatures and the the report is, so actually more encouraging, also leading into the holiday being more optimistic as they expect holiday sales to still be robust. Joe so there was weakness and some pretty key areas of discretionary spending, furniture, sporting goods, restaurants. Sometimes i like looking at restaurants, because that is the ultimate discretionary purchase, but markets are not too worried about it at all. Poonam yeah, i am not so worried about it. You have to remember, october is the smallest month of the quarter for retailers, so it is not that big of a month. If you look at the consumer overall, confidence is high, Interest Rates are low, housing is good, so the consumer is in a pretty good spot. You will see share shifts where retailers who are doing well will continue to do well, and the ones that have struggled because of shared shifts, losses online as consumers tastes change, they will struggle. Caroline it is the have and havenots, whether it be gaps, but every now and then, that little red light, performing better than expected, and jcpenney had it today. Poonam yeah, jcpenney had good results, and that was really driven by the margin, 180 basis points. But that said, topdown, 9. 3 , and that is not that robust. In spite of all of that, i think what you saw today in the market was probably a little bit of short covering, underlying fundamentals on the top line still weak. I want to take, you into some of the retail data that we have gotten, which is apparel in particular. There seems to be a softening. I am wondering if that is an omen heading into december, especially of these tariffs do go into place. Poonam i think the tariffs probably do go into place, and if they do, the retailers probably do not have the andtite for everything, they also cannot pass the prices to the consumer, so that is a wait and watch situation. If they do take prices up by retail, which we do not expect them to, at least on the apparel front, we will see a fallback and demand and a trade down. Caroline next week, we get a earnings from certain companies. We have got tj maxx, i mean, we have got the whole gambit of somewhat luxury all the way down to the cheaper price point. Who will be the winners, do you think . Poonam i think the winners will be who they have been all along, the offprice retailers, tj maxx, burlington, ross, they will post outside samestore gains. Department stores, were seeing down, maybe up. 5 . And thattill weak, trend likely continues as they struggle to drop traffic. Lululemon is a retailer that we have seen post doubledigit signature sales gain all year, and we expect that trend to continue. The athleisure trend will continue. Caroline long leggings. Poonam goyal, bloomberg intelligence. Lets get a headline for you. A governors report meeting that u. S. Workers are failing to meet the skills needed in the economy. Literacy, numeracy, and digital problemsolving 19 of those surveyed ranked the lowest levels for that problemsolving ability. Thatberg has learned faci